Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 April 2025

Thu Apr 3 03:37:29 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 April 2025

ZSE commentary

Econet highlights the session...

Econet highlighted the trading session after a circa 5m shares worth $17.83m
exchanged hands in the name. The aforementioned trade claimed 82.41% of
total volume traded and 71.02% of turnover. The other notable value driver
of the day was Delta that accounted for 24.29%. Activity aggregates enhanced
in the session as volume traded ballooned 859.04% to 6.16m shares while,
turnover grew by 263.08% to $25.11m. No trades were recorded in the ETF
category. The Tigere REIT charged 3.67% to close at $1.3375 after 600 units
exchanged hands in the session.

General Beltings headlined the gainers of the day on a 98.38% jump to
$0.1195, followed by ZB Financial Holdings that shot up 15.00% to $5.7500.
FML surged 4.13% to settle at $3.9100 while, logistics company Unifreight
stepped up 2.92% to $1.8525. Tea producer Tanganda capped the top five
winners of the day on a 2.89% uplift to end the day pegged at $1.0500.
Trading in the negative was brick maker Willdale that dropped 20.46% to
close at $0.0302 while, RioZim slipped 12.74% to $0.8695. Seed producer
SeedCo dipped 7.44% to $3.9344 while, Star Africa tumbled 3.13% to $0.0352.
Ariston completed the fallers of the day on a 1.50% slide to end the day
pegged at $0.0590. The All-Share Index rose 0.29% to 206.62pts while, the
Blue-Chip Index went up 0.14% to 200.97pts. The Mid Cap Index added 0.75% to
251.76pts while, the Agriculture Index eased 0.96% to 181.89pts while,

VFEX reverses prior session losses...

The VFEX reversed prior session losses as the All-Share Index fell 0.79% to
108.05pts. Axia topped the worst performers of

the day on a 4.36% dip to $0.0789, followed by Padenga that trimmed 4.33% to
$0.2009. Zimplow tumbled 2.44% to $0.0200 while, First Capital shed 0.37% to
settle at $0.0535. Fast foods group Simbisa capped the fallers of the day on
a 0.19% retreat to end the day pegged at $0.3144. Partially mitigating
today's losses was Seed Co that firmed up 0.24% to $0.2105 while,
conglomerate Innscor edged up 0.06% to $0.5029. Activity aggregates enhanced
in the session as volume traded ballooned 103.46% to 1.55m shares while,
turnover charged 1131.65% to $133,658.54. First Capital anchored today's
volume and value traded after contributing 82.17% to the former and 51.07%
to the latter.- efesecurities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

Rand slumps to weakest level in months after ANC passes Budget without DA

The rand slumped to its weakest level since January after Parliament voted
to pass a key piece of budget legislation - which may mean the end of the
business-friendly government of national unity (GNU).

On Wednesday evening, 194 MPs voted in favour of the Fiscal Framework, and
182 against. The ANC's main governing partner, the DA, voted against it.
President Cyril Ramaphosa and Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana both said
the party should leave the GNU if the DA does not support the Budget.

The ANC refused to comply with the DA's demands for a larger say in economic
decision making.

The local currency slumped to R18.80/$ shortly after the vote. Bloomberg
reported that this was its weakest level on a closing basis since 16
January. A few days ago, the rand was trading below R18.14. It lost 2% of
its value just over the past day.

Uncertainty about new global import tariffs, which will be announced by the
US government later on Wednesday, also added pressure on the currency.

The dollar was firmer as investors sought a safe haven investment ahead of
US President Donald Trump's announcements of new global reciprocal tariffs.
The US is SA's second-largest trade partner.

Trump has claimed 2 April as "Liberation Day" for US trade. A White House
spokeswoman previously said that the reciprocal tariffs on countries that
impose duties on US goods would take effect immediately after Trump's
announcement, Reuters reported.

Concerns about whether Trump's new tariffs will stoke US inflation and
trigger a recession in that country have weighed on the dollar, which fell
more than 3% against a basket of currencies last month.

Nigeria

Naira gains as net FX reserves hit 3yr high

Nigeria's naira climbed the most against the dollar in two weeks after the
central bank said net foreign-exchange reserves climbed to the highest in
more than three years.

The naira closed at a one-week high of N1,531.25 per dollar on Monday,
according to CBN data, a 0.4 percent or N5.57 gain from N1,536.82/$1 last
Friday.

The CBN said on Tuesday that net reserves jumped to $23.11 billion at the
end of December 2024, a significant leap from $3.99 billion recorded at the
end of 2023, $8.19 billion in 2022, and $14.59 billion in 2021.

"NFER stood at $23.11bn, the highest level in over three years, a marked
increase from $3.99 billion at year-end 2023, $8.19bn in 2022, and $14.59bn
in 2021," the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said in a statement on Tuesday.

Analysts attributed the increase to measures implemented by the central bank
to shore up its buffers, which they believe are finally yielding results.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

US Dollar down as markets asses Trump's words

DXY trades near the 104 zone after Trump's global tariff announcement on
Wednesday.

Sentiment swings as 10% import tariffs and 25% auto duties add complexity to
trade outlook.

Downside pressure persists below key moving averages, resistance seen near
104.10.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) moved lower during Wednesday's session, lingering
near the 104.00 area after President Donald Trump confirmed sweeping tariffs
on global imports. The initial surge in yields and volatility gave way to a
more cautious tone as details revealed a 10% blanket tariff and an
additional 25% duty on imported vehicles. The announcement, while bold,
lacked the aggressive edge markets feared, prompting a partial retreat in
safe-haven flows.

Bearish bias persists despite neutral signals

>From a technical perspective, the DXY faces downside pressure as it trades
around 104.00, stuck between support at 103.68 and resistance at 104.31. The
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 39, suggesting neutral
momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a
weak buy signal. Still, the broader picture remains bearish with the 20-day
(103.91), 100-day (106.72), and 200-day (104.89) Simple Moving Averages
(SMAs) all pointing downward.

Shorter-term indicators such as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
and 10-day SMA-both sitting just above 104-further reinforce resistance
ahead. Key levels to monitor include resistance at 104.02 and 104.10, while
the downside could be challenged at 103.68. Despite some neutral signals
from the Awesome Oscillator and Williams %R, the prevailing trend favors the
bears unless buyers reclaim ground above 104.10.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold price holds above $3,130 as Trump unleashes tariff barrage

Economic data takes a backseat; market focus shifts to upcoming ISM Services
PMI, NFP, and Powell's speech for direction.

Gold price extended its gains on Wednesday, posting gains of 0.71%, yet as
Thursday's Asian session begins, the golden metal remains unchanged. At the
time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,136, virtually unchanged.

US Liberation Day is finally here. US President Donald Trump announced that
the US will impose 10% tariffs on all imports and 25% duties on automobiles.
These duties become effective on April 3.

Additionally, he announced reciprocal tariffs would be applied to certain
countries. China's being hit with 34% duties, the European Union with 20%,
46% to Vietnam, 24% to Japan, and 10% to the United Kingdom.

Since US President Donald Trump won the election, Gold prices initially
dipped before rallying and gaining over 23% from the November 14 low, when
XAU/USD  hit $2,536.

Bullion prices have extended their gains despite rising US yields. However,
the broad weakness of the US Dollar (USD) kept Gold prices holding firm
above the $3,100 mark.

US economic data has taken a backseat amid tariff jitters. ADP revealed that
private companies hired more people than expected, while Factory Orders
expanded above estimates but showed some signs of slowing down.

Ahead this week, traders are focusing on the ISM Services PMI for March,
Nonfarm Payroll figures, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price edges up amid high US yields

The US 10-year T-note yield rises three basis points to 4.19%. US real
yields edge up three bps to 1.862%, according to US 10-year Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields.

The ADP National Employment Report for March showed that businesses added
155K jobs, beating expectations of just over 105K and significantly higher
than February's 84K increase, signaling continued strength in private sector
hiring.

Meanwhile, Factory Orders rose 0.6% MoM in February, slightly above the 0.5%
forecast, though slowing from January's 1.8% surge.

Looking ahead, Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on US
trading partners during an address in the White House Rose Garden, a move
likely to stir market volatility and global trade tensions.

The latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model indicates that the
GDP for Q1 2025 is expected to contract by 3.7%, down from the 2.8% estimate
on March 28.

Money market futures pricing in more than 73 basis points of interest rate
cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retreats from all-time highs near
$3,150

The uptrend in Gold prices remains intact; however, buyers' lack of
commitment to push prices to record highs keeps the yellow metal trading
sideways. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 70 level,
indicating overbought territory. Traders should note that, due to the
strength of the trend, the most extreme reading can reach 80. Therefore,
further upside is anticipated.

If XAU/USD stays above $3,100, buyers maintain control. An extension of the
rally would trigger a breach of the record high at $3,149, followed by the
$3,200 mark. Conversely, a drop below $3,100 would expose the March 20 high,
which has since become support at $3,057, followed by the $3,000 mark.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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