Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 03 February 2025

Tue Feb 4 09:57:48 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 03 February 2025

ZSE commentary 

ZSE Losses stretch into the new month...

Losses on the bourse extended into the new month as the primary All Share
Index lost 0.11% to 195.35pts while, the Blue Chip Index eased 0.28% to
192.i9pts. On the contrary, the Agriculture Index gained 0.52% to 178.96pts
while, the Mid Cap Index added 0.43% to 228.69pts. Beverages giant Delta led
the laggards of the day on a 3.61% slide to $12.5007, followed by  logistics
company   Unifreight  that  trimmed  0.47%  to $2.1100. Tanganda dropped
0.03% to $1.7925 as retailer Ok Zimbabwe slipped 0.02% to end the day pegged
at $0.3009. Trading in the positive was telecoms giant Econet that charged
9.77% to $2.7486 while, Seed Co surged 8.12% to close at $2.0000. Zimre
Holdings Limited ticked up 2.56% to settle at $0.2005 while, Ecocash went up
0.84% to $0.3000. Nampak capped the top performers of the day on a 0.06%
lift to end the day pegged at $0.9000. The market closed on a positive
breadth of three as seven counters re.corded gains against four that
faltered.

Activity aggregates enhanced in the session as volume traded ballooned
611.53% to 3.23m shares while, turnover grew by 1383.30% to $16.83m. Top
volume drivers of the day were Econet (37.34%), Delta (32.21%) and Star
Africa (23.03%). The duo of Delta and Econet highlighted the turnover of the
day after contributing 77.34% and 19.71% respectively. Datvest ETF was
stable at $0.0300 after 500 units exchanged hands in the name. Tigere REIT
firmed up 0.96% to end the day pegged at $1.1930 after 3,924 units exchanged
hands..- 

 -efesecurites

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African markets slump after Trump suspends US aid

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand, stocks and government bonds slumped on
Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would suspend aid to the
country.

Trump said, without citing evidence, that "South Africa is confiscating
land" and "certain classes of people" were being treated "very badly" on
Sunday, adding that he would cut off funding until the matter was
investigated.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who recently signed into law
legislation allowing land to be expropriated under specific conditions, said
his government had not confiscated any and he would talk to Trump to foster
a better understanding.

At 1502 GMT, the rand traded at 18.8675 against the U.S. dollar , 0.9%
weaker than its closing level on Friday. Earlier in the day it was down
almost 2%.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index closed about 0.4%
(.JTOPI), opens new tab lower, while the benchmark 2030 government bond
price slid and the cost of insuring South African debt against default rose
to its highest since early August.

U.S. funding to South Africa mainly involves supporting its HIV/AIDS
programme, but Trump's comments caused investor unease about the potential
for a broad review of diplomatic and economic ties.

Casey Sprake, an investment analyst at Anchor Capital, said the autos and
agriculture sectors were especially vulnerable as South Africa currently
enjoys duty-free access to the U.S. market under a Clinton-era trade
initiative.

Annabel Bishop, an Investec economist, said the rand was also under pressure
due to Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, which lifted the dollar
to multi-year highs against many global peers.

South African manufacturers, meanwhile, posted a deterioration in business
conditions for a third month in a row.

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Nigeria

Naira strengthens to N1,590/$1 in parallel market, weakens on official
window

Naira strengthens to N1590/$1 in parallel market Naira strengthens at
official parallel markets on increased Analysts project Naira will berth at
N1550/US$ Naira dollar

The Nigerian Naira appreciated significantly at the parallel market on
Monday, strengthening to N1,590 per US dollar, compared to N1,610 per US
dollar last week. However, this gain was not mirrored in the official
foreign exchange (FX) market, where the currency depreciated.

At the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the Naira fell
to N1,495.60 per US dollar on Monday, down from N1,474.78 per US dollar on
Friday. This decline came after the currency reached an eight-month high of
N1,474.78 per US dollar last week, following a series of government fiscal
and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate.

Analysts attribute the Naira's overall strength in recent months to multiple
factors, including increased local petrol refining capacity, higher foreign
exchange inflows, and the Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) swift policy
interventions over the past 17 months.

In January, the Naira traded between N1,506 and N1,560 per US dollar, except
for the final days of the month when it strengthened to N1,493 per US dollar
on January 30 and further appreciated to N1,475 on January 31. Year-on-year,
NAFEM closed at N1,455.59 per US dollar at the end of January 2024,
representing an approximate difference of 1.33 percent.

Despite the recent appreciation, analysts caution that fluctuations remain
likely due to external factors such as global oil prices, remittance
inflows, and investor sentiment toward Nigeria's economy. Given the
persistent volatility in the FX market, further interventions from the CBN
may be necessary to ensure sustained stability.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Global Markets

Dollar lower after U.S. tariffs on Mexico paused for a month

(Reuters) - The dollar index was lower on Monday after U.S. President Donald
Trump paused new tariffs on Mexico for one month, after the country agreed
to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members to stem
the flow of illegal drugs, Trump said.

Mexico and the U.S. will use the month-long suspension to engage in further
negotiations, Trump said.

The delay boosted the Mexican peso . It was last up 1.25% against the dollar
at 20.4196. Earlier, it fell to its lowest in nearly three years at 21.2882
per U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, the dollar index was down 0.5% at 108.96. It had touched a
three-week high of 109.88 in early trading.

"This delay to Mexico plays into this idea that the tariffs are just a
transactional tool," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at
Bannockburn Global Forex.

As Trump promised last month, the U.S. over the weekend announced it would
hit Canada and Mexico with 25% duties and China with a 10% levy starting on
Tuesday, calling them necessary to curb immigration and narcotics
trafficking.

Trump said on Monday he had spoken with Canadian Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau and would do so again at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT). The tariffs on Canada
and China remain poised to take effect on Tuesday, and Canada has announced
retaliatory tariffs.

A senior Canadian official told a New York Times reporter that Ottawa is not
optimistic that a similar reprieve is in the offing, the reporter said on X.

The Canadian dollar rose to 1.4568 per U.S. dollar, after earlier falling to
a level not seen since 2003.

China said it would challenge Trump's levies at the World Trade
Organization.

The U.S. dollar was at 7.3254 yuan in the offshore market , having earlier
pushed to a record high of 7.3765 yuan. Markets in China remain closed for
the Lunar New Year and will resume trading on Wednesday.

The tariffs are widely expected to push up U.S. inflation, supporting the
dollar by keeping U.S. interest rates higher for longer. Economists say the
Republican president's plan would also slow global growth and drive prices
higher for Americans.

"What it seems like the U.S. is trying to do is build its hegemonic power
back and then force the rest of the world to pay for U.S. public goods,
which is typically not how government works," said Mark McCormick, head of
foreign exchange and emerging market strategy at TD Securities.

Markets pared expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the wake
of the tariff news, with futures pricing in just a 50% chance of two cuts
this year .

Canada's and Mexico's economies are at risk of recession once the tariffs
are in place, some analysts say, while the euro zone economy faces further
stagnation if tariffs kick in.

Trump said over the weekend that tariffs on the European Union would go
ahead, but did not say when.

EU leaders at an informal summit in Brussels on Monday said Europe would be
prepared to fight back if the U.S. imposes tariffs, but also called for
reason and negotiation.

The euro plunged as much as 2.3% to $1.0125 - the lowest since November 2022
- as investors braced for tariffs on Europe from the Trump administration.
The single currency was last down 0.73% against the dollar at $1.0286.

The Australian dollar hit a five-year low on Monday, while the New Zealand
dollar fell to its lowest since October 2022. The two Antipodean currencies
are often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan.

Japan's yen , conversely, was resilient, with the dollar sliding 0.24%
against the yen to 154.845.

Bitcoin rose back above the $100,000 level after earlier in the day hitting
its weakest in nearly three weeks.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Philippines Gold hits record high as Trump tariffs spur safe-haven buying

(Reuters) - Gold prices hit an all-time high on Monday, bolstered by
safe-haven inflows after U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada,
China and Mexico added to concerns of inflation that would dent economic
growth.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,818.99 per ounce by 01:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT),
after hitting a record of $2,830.49 earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $2,857.10.

Despite the usual dampening effect of a strong dollar on the gold market,
prices have been rallying due to the safe-haven demand driven by uncertainty
surrounding Trump's tariffs, said David Meger, director of metals trading at
High Ridge Futures.

The 25% tariffs imposed by Trump on Canadian and Mexican imports from
Tuesday, along with a 10% charge on Chinese goods, fuelled fears of a trade
war that could slow global growth and feed inflation.

Canada and Mexico ordered retaliatory measures while China said it would
challenge the tariffs at the World Trade Organization and take unspecified
countermeasures.

However, Trump announced a month-long pause on tariffs the U.S. had slapped
on Mexico.

The market is not fully convinced about the extent of the trade war, Bart
Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities, said.

"We haven't seen a complete response from gold and if this trade war
continues for a considerable period, it could lead to significantly higher
gold prices down the road," Melek added.

Gold is often considered as a safe-haven investment during periods of
economic or geopolitical instability.

J.P. Morgan said bearish contagion from equities could weigh on gold in the
near term, but disruptive tariffs were a medium-term bull case for bullion.

Investors await data this week on U.S. job openings, the ADP employment
report and the U.S. employment report to gauge the health of the U.S.
economy.

Meanwhile, bullion banks are transporting gold from Asian trading hubs like
Dubai and Hong Kong to the U.S. to profit from the unusually high U.S. gold
futures premium over spot prices.

Spot silver rose by 0.8% to $31.56 an ounce, platinum lost 1.5% to $963.40
and palladium rose 0.5% at $1,012.85.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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