Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 17 February 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 17 February 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentary 

 

ZSE losses persist into the new week...

Losses of the ZSE persisted into the new week as the primary All Share Index
lost 0.48% to 188.48pts while, the Blue-Chip Index fell 0.57% to 184.62pts.
The Agriculture Index eased 0.82% to 153.90pts while, the Mid Cap Index went
down 0.25% to 222.34pts. Ecocash led the laggards of the day on a 9.74% dip
to $0.2296, followed by cigarette manufacturer BAT that slipped 4.41% to
$65.0000. Mashonaland Holdings dropped 3.18% to settle at $1.6483 while,
property concern FMP trimmed 2.97% to $0.9990. RioZim c_apped the worst
performers of the day on a 0.83% retreat to end at $1.0690. Trading in the
positive was seed producer SeedCo that jumped 1.59% to $2.5703 while,
Ariston charged 1.01% to $0.0600. Telecoms giant Econet firmed up 0.84% to
close at $2.5556 while, Star Africa surged 0.46% to end the day  pegged
at$0.0286. Beverage giant Delta completed the top performers of the day on a
0.02% lift to end the day pegged at $13.0026.

 

Activity aggregates were mixed in the session as volumes traded succumbed
41.85% to 944,300 shares while, turnover grew by 64.12% to $4.73m. Volume
drivers of the day were Ecocash (37.75%), Delta (17.83%) and Econet
(10.75%). Delta and BAT were the top value drivers of the day after
contributing 46.33% and 34.66% respectively . Datvest ETF tumbled 0.02% to
close at $0.0300. Tigere REIT shed 0.04% to settle at $1.1495 after
2,087,940 units exchanged hands in the name.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

South Africa

 

South African rand slips as markets await budget speech

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand weakened on Monday, ahead of Finance
Minister Enoch Godongwana's budget speech this week, which will provide
insights on the state of Africa's most industrialised economy.

 

 

At 1503 GMT, the rand traded at 18.4275 against the U.S. dollar , about 0.4%
softer than its previous close.

Analysts said all eyes will be on the budget presentation to parliament on
Wednesday, which will lay out the government's spending priorities, revenue
collection measures and updated economic forecasts for the year.

 

 

Analysts polled by Reuters said South Africa's budget deficit forecasts will
be wider than those in its October estimates for the next three years.

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index closed about
0.3% lower.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was also weaker, with the
yield up 5 basis points at 9.145%.

Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global
economy with the Reuters Econ World newsletter. Sign up here.

Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov and Bhargav Acharya; Editing by Tannur Anders,
Sonia Cheema and Ed Osmond

 

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira’s best start in over a decade sparks hope, caution

The naira has kicked off the year with its strongest rally in 13 years,
mirroring an early surge in 2024 that was ultimately undone by foreign
investors cashing out. But this time, the forces at play suggest the story
may unfold differently.

 

Since December 2024, the naira has gained 9 percent, strengthening from
N1,662/$ on Dec. 2 to N1,509/$ on Feb. 13, the biggest gain among African
currencies, according to BusinessDay data.

 

In January alone, it appreciated 4 percent (N63.14), hitting a seven-month
high of N1,478.22/$. The last time the currency appreciated in the month of
January was in 2012.

 

Although the rally has cooled slightly in February, with the naira
stabilising around N1,500/$, its strength in the parallel market has
continued. It climbed to N1,545/$, up from N1,620/$ at the start of the
month.

 

Read also: CBN strengthened naira, boosted investor confidence for 16 months
– Cardoso

 

Déjà vu or a new dawn?

 

The last time the naira surged this quickly, the gains were short-lived. In
March 2024, the currency rallied from N1,600/$ the previous month to a peak
of N1,300/$ on the back of surging foreign portfolio inflows (FPIs) and
diaspora remittances. That remarkable turnaround saw the naira go from the
world’s worst-performing currency to its best performer in a matter of
weeks.

 

However, as dollar inflows slowed, cracks in the FX market reappeared. By
July, the naira had not only erased its gains but had fallen to an even
weaker N1,660/$.

 

Market insiders attributed the sharp reversal to a decline in dollar supply
and profit-taking by foreign investors. Many had entered the market at
N1,600/$, only to exit when the rate dropped to N1,300/$, locking in gains.
Those who invested in Nigerian bonds—after the CBN adjusted rates to align
with inflation—saw even higher returns upon exiting.

 

“If the naira appreciates too quickly, foreign investors may seize another
profit-taking opportunity, as they did last year,” a market expert told
BusinessDay.

 

To prevent history from repeating itself, the CBN appears to be taking a
more measured approach, evident in the naira’s controlled performance in
February.

 

“My advice to the CBN is to buy the dollars coming in at a rate,” the market
expert said.

 

Naira's best start

 

What’s driving naira rally?

 

The naira’s resurgence is largely fueled by improved FX supply in the
official market, driven by CBN reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and
investor confidence. Analysts widely expect the currency to remain largely
stable throughout 2025.

 

 

The total foreign exchange inflows into the Nigerian autonomous foreign
exchange market (NAFEM) surged by 53 percent to USD4.7 billion at the end of
January, from USD3.1 billion recorded in December 2024, according to data
from the FMDQ.

 

“The continued rally reflects improved supply within the official segment,
which has dampened demand in the parallel market,” said Wale Okunrinboye,
head of research at Access Pensions.

 

One of the key policy shifts credited with the naira’s turnaround is the
Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (BMatch), introduced in December
2024. This CBN-backed platform, operating via Bloomberg’s BMatch system,
allows authorised dealers to place anonymous orders into a central limit
order book, ensuring greater transparency and efficient price discovery in
the FX market.

 

By reducing market distortions and giving the CBN greater oversight, the
system has made it easier to manage exchange rate fluctuations.

 

Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise
(CPPE), noted that clearer information on supply and demand has reduced
information asymmetry and made demand more realistic.

 

Another major reform came in January 2025, when the CBN launched the Nigeria
Foreign Exchange Code (FX Code), which sets out principles for ethical
conduct, governance, execution, information sharing, risk management, and
settlement processes in the FX market.

 

With these reforms aligning Nigeria’s FX market with global best practices,
investor confidence has strengthened.

 

To reinforce stability, the CBN has extended its $25,000 weekly dollar sales
to BDC operators until May 2025, ensuring the parallel market does not
derail official market pricing.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

 

Dollar firms, Aussie steady after RBA's 'hawkish' rate cut

(Reuters) - The dollar firmed on Tuesday as traders weighed tariff worries
and the path to U.S. rate cuts, while the Australian dollar held steady near
two-month highs after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered an expected
rate cut but cautioned on further easing.

The RBA cut its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% on Tuesday in its
first easing since the 2020 pandemic, but was cautious about prospects of
further policy easing.

 

That left the Australian dollar steady at $0.6351 after an initial burst of
choppiness following the decision. The Aussie touched a two-month high of
$0.6374 on Monday and is up 2.4% in February on easing trade war worries.

Prashant Newnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities,
said the RBA's statement struck the right balance without boxing in the
central bank to delivering a follow-up cut. "That said we retain our
forecast for cuts in May and August."

Swaps imply just a 20% probability for a follow-up cut in April, although a
move in May is still almost fully priced in.

Speaking at a media conference, Australia's top central banker Michele
Bullock said market pricing for two more quarter-point cuts this year was
ambitious and policy makers were more cautious about the outlook.

Kerry Craig, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management said
the RBA's move looks more like an "insurance" cut, which keeps it in step
with global central banks, rather than the start of an aggressive easing
cycle.

"This easing cycle will certainly not be a sprint to the end, but rather a
slow walk on the path towards lower rates and further cuts ahead."

Investor focus this week will be on Wednesday's release of minutes of the
Federal Reserve's meeting in January to gauge how policymakers have sought
to weigh the risk of a broader tariff war in the wake of President Donald
Trump's trade policies.

Data last week showed U.S. consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in
nearly 18 months in January, reinforcing the Fed's message that it was in no
rush to resume cutting rates amid growing economic worries.

"Trade policy uncertainty is at a record high ... and given that the labour
market is solid, there is no compelling case to cut rates imminently," ANZ
strategists said in a note.

"An extended pause during the first half of this year looks justified and
will give the Fed time to assess the impact of trade measures on inflation."

ANZ now expects rate cuts to resume in the second half of 2025, with a
further 75 bps of easing anticipated. Markets though are not as optimistic,
with traders pricing in 40 bps of cuts for this year.

In Asia, the yen was on the back foot after its recent gains as strong
growth data bolstered odds of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates again
this year, with July seen as a live meeting.

The yen was last at 152.165 to the dollar, down 0.4% on the day. Japan's
solid October-December GDP data on Monday, coupled with recent inflation
numbers, have helped lift the yen. It is up nearly 4% against the dollar so
far in 2025.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six other major
currencies, was 0.27% higher at 107.01, still not far from the two-month low
of 106.56 it touched on Friday.

The euro was 0.27% lower at $1.045475, while sterling eased 0.2% at $1.2593
as traders braced for talks in Saudi Arabia later on Tuesday aimed at ending
the Ukraine war.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.55% to $0.57195 ahead of the Reserve Bank of
New Zealand meeting on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely expected
to cut rates by 50 bps.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Gold price rebounds to $2,900 on softer dollar, tariff threats

Gold recovered from the biggest intraday decline in two months, returning to
the key $2,900 level, as fears of an impending trade war continue to support
safe-haven demand.

 

In late afternoon trading on Monday, US gold for delivery in April was
exchanging hands for $2,911 an ounce, up 0.4% in holiday-thinned dealings.

 

 

The gains came even after the 14-day relative strength index — a gauge of
the pace and intensity of moves — showed the precious metal reached
overbought levels in recent sessions, according to Bloomberg.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar hovered near a two-month low, making bullion less
expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

 

“Gold is still benefiting from investors looking for safe-haven assets amid
concerns of a tariffs and trade war,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in
a Reuters note.

 

“We continue to see upside for gold, with the yellow metal expected to rise
to $3,000, benefiting also from ongoing central bank demand,” he added.

 

Ukraine rejects US bid for 50% of rare earth minerals, FT says

 

On Friday, US President Donald Trump kept to his drumbeat of tariff threats,
saying levies on automobiles would be coming as soon as April 2. It was the
latest in a series of trade actions he has unveiled since returning to
office.

 

Focus was also on developments towards talks over the Ukraine war. US
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that Kyiv and Europe would be
part of any “real negotiations” to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.

 

“We remain watchful of possible lower central bank demand (for gold) that
may arise in the event of a potential Russia/Ukraine peace deal,” said
Morgan Stanley in a note dated Friday.

 

Traders were also studying the latest US economic data for clues about the
Federal Reserve’s likely easing path, after a report on Friday showed retail
sales slumped by the most in nearly two years. This prompted traders to
restore bets that the central bank will cut interest rates by September.

 

Money managers cut their bullish wagers on gold to a four-week low in the
week ending Feb. 11, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading
Commission report on Friday.

 

Despite Friday’s fall, bullion still notched its seventh consecutive weekly
advance, the longest winning streak since 2020.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


 (c) 2025 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

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