Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 26 February 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 26 February 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentar

 

VFEX sees record turnover on FCB's portfolio switch

 

HARARE - A block trade in First Capital Bank lifted Victoria Falls Stock
Exchange turnover to a record high on Wednesday.

A total of 1.13 billion FCB shares exchanged hands as its major shareholders
changed their investment holding vehicle from Afcarme Zimbabwe Holdings
Limited. Afcarme Zimbabwe was the holding company set up by previous owners
Barclays Bank for its Zimbabwe shares. The shares, worth US$40.15 million,
were moved to a locally incorporated vehicle. The trade executed by Imara
sailed through at 3.45 US cents.

The VFEX All Share closed the session 0.53% higher to 104.06. Innscor gained
2.64% to 46.64 US cents. There were losses, however, in Padenga, down 3.45%
to 17.33 US cents, and Simbisa, which shed 0.54% to 33.01 US cents.

Elsewhere on the wider market, Zimbabwe Stock Exchange shares continued to
recover, albeit in subdued turnover in a generally tight liquidity economy.

The All Share Index was up 1.74% to 197.01, supported by strong heavyweight
performance. Turnover was at ZWG3.73 million after 705 500 shares exchanged
hands in 116 trades. Delta contributed the most to value at ZWG1.83 million,
while NMB saw the most volume at 190,100 shares. Foreigners were net buyers
at ZWG857 391 against disposals of ZWG 15 088. 

 

The Top Ten Index rose 2.89% to 196.78. BAT Zimbabwe jumped 15% to 9
199.99c, Delta put on 5.14c to 1 419.41c, and CBZ Holdings added 3.33% to
775c.

Property counter Mash Holdings shed 3.13% to 150c.

The Medium Cap Index was down 1.81% to 219.35. TSL was the day's worst
performer ahead of the finalisation of its acquisition of a majority stake
in Nampak Zimbabwe. The stock fell 14.99% to 169.6c.

ZB Financial Holdings lost 14.39% to 351c, and struggling tile manufacturer
Turnall was 8.73% lower to 5.02c.  NMB dropped 2.76% to 370.46c.

There were gains, however, in Zimpapers, which was the strongest performer
after rising 32.89% to 20c. OK Zimbabwe put on 6.81% to 35.25c after the
group announced management changes.  The group announced the return of
Willard Zireva and Alex Siyavora as CEO and CFO, respectively.

.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

South Africa

 

 

South African rand stable as markets await US data

 

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand was stable on Wednesday as markets awaited
U.S. gross domestic product data and an inflation reading later this week.

 

At 1602 GMT, the rand traded at 18.39 against the U.S. dollar , unchanged
from the previous session's close.

The dollar gained about 0.1% against a basket of currencies.

 

Domestic data on Wednesday showed South African consumer inflation edged up
in January in the first release since the statistics agency updated its
consumer price basket, but the headline rate remained near the bottom of the
central bank's target range.

Inflation rose to 3.2% year-on-year in January from 3.0% in December
(ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab, within the South African Reserve Bank's target
range of 3% to 6%.

 

"The South African rand remained subdued despite a rise in inflation,
aligning with the (South African) Reserve Bank's recent caution on
inflationary risks," said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by
OANDA.

 

Markets will look to second-quarter gross domestic product estimates for the
U.S. on Thursday and a personal consumption expenditures reading, the
Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, on Friday.

 

Vawda said global factors continue to outweigh local data and the upcoming
U.S. data could spark "notable volatility" for the rand and other emerging
market currencies.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI),
opens new tab closed about 0.7% higher.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger, with the yield
down 4 basis points to 9.025%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira strengthens at unofficial market, breaks below N1,600/$

The Nigerian currency showed strength in the black market but dipped for the
third consecutive time against the dollar at Nigeria's official foreign
exchange market.

 

The naira fell to N1,499.76/$1 on Wednesday from N1,498.95/$1, according to
FMDQ data.

 

However, it appreciated by N20 in the parallel market, trading at N1,585/$1
from N1,605/$1.

 

Judge rejects Godwin Emefiele's request to withdraw self from EFCC's
corruption case 

 February 26, 2025

Currency traders in Nigeria's business capital attributed this movement to
the Chinese New Year holiday and the market's reaction to the Central Bank
of Nigeria's (CBN) announcement of the foreign exchange code as key triggers
behind a decline in dollar demand, boosting the naira's value.

 

Additionally, some traders who held sizable dollar reserves sold their
holdings, increasing supply in anticipation of reduced demand and exchange
rate fluctuations.

 

CBN updates BDC guidelines

In response, the CBN under Governor Yemi Cardoso updated its guidelines to
improve Bureau de Change (BDC) operations in Nigeria.

 

These guidelines outline acceptable practices for BDCs, including purchasing
foreign currency from designated entities and handling business and personal
travel expenses.

 

Furthermore, the CBN replaced the old over-the-counter system with an
automated foreign exchange transaction process to enhance market efficiency
and oversight.

 

Recent trends indicate increased dollar liquidity in Nigerian banks.
Customers seeking Business Travel Allowance (BTA) and Personal Travel
Allowance (PTA) are now having their requests honored more frequently.

 

Global currency market trends

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six
major peers-including the British pound, Euro, and Swiss franc-stood at
107.81 index points at publication, not far from its overnight low of
107.29. Earlier this week, the index surged to a three-week high of 109.88.

 

Former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled readiness to impose 25% import
tariffs on Canada and Mexico, though both countries received last-minute
one-month reprieves.

 

Meanwhile, Washington imposed 10% tariffs on China. In response, China
introduced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, following failed attempts by
U.S. President Joe Biden to engage Chinese President Xi Jinping in trade
discussions.

 

Most economists agree that trade tariffs could increase U.S. inflation,
prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher interest rates for an
extended period. Additionally, a weaker-than-expected U.S. ISM Services
report raised the probability of another interest rate cut later this year.

 

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee cautioned on Wednesday
that it would be a mistake to overlook the possible inflationary impact of
tariffs, pointing to the COVID-19 pandemic's experience, in which supply
chain disruptions increased inflation.

 

According to Goolsbee's prepared remarks for the Fed's regional bank's
annual auto symposium in Detroit, the economy is robust, the labor market is
"plausibly" at full employment, and inflation is closer to the Fed's 2 per
cent target.

 

"But we now face a variety of new supply chain challenges - from natural and
man-made disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires, to bridge collisions
that shut down major ports, clogged canals, and threats of dockworker
walkouts; geopolitical disruptions; immigration; and, of course, the threat
of significant tariffs and the potential for an escalating trade war,"
Goolsbee described new supply chain challenges.

 

"The Fed will be in a tough position: It will have to decide whether
inflation is due to overheating or tariffs if we see rising inflation or
stagnant progress in 2025," Goolsbee stated.

 

Making that distinction will be essential in determining whether or not the
Fed should take action.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

US dollar rises as economic, tariff outlook gauged

 

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday to move further from recent
11-week lows, as investors assess the strength of the economy and tariffs
outlook after the most recent comments from U.S. President Donald Trump.

 

The greenback stumbled on Tuesday as economic data showed a sharp drop in
consumer confidence, the latest in a string of data points that have
prompted concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy and persistent
inflation, and caused U.S. Treasury yields to tumble.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield plunged nearly 10 basis points
(bps) on Tuesday and was last down 4.2 basis points to 4.256% after falling
to 4.249%, its lowest since December 11 as an earlier attempt to stabilize
dissipated.

 

"We've had a pretty good sell-off since January, a lot of that's been fueled
by the adjustment lower in U.S. real rates, which was largely fueled by the
underperforming data we've been seeing, including yesterday," said Brad
Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

"We're at a stage now where we're probably just going to chop around for a
bit until we hear more about what's actually happening with tariffs."

 

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of
currencies, rose 0.21% to 106.46, with the euro down 0.26% at $1.0486.

 

The greenback had fallen nearly 4% from a more than two-year high hit in
January as worries have emerged about U.S. economic growth as well as
inflation, as investors deal with shifting tariff deadlines by Trump on
Canada and Mexico. Investors are also bracing for the labor market impact
from actions taken by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency.

 

The Canadian dollar weakened 0.9% versus the greenback to C$1.43 while the
Mexican peso strengthened 0.3% versus the dollar at 20.406.

 

Trading in both currencies was choppy after Trump said at a cabinet meeting
that they would take effect on April 2, but a White House official, however,
said the March 4 deadline for the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods
remained in effect "as of this moment."

Even with the recent declines, the dollar has risen in three of the past
four sessions and "the market is still respecting the fact that there's an
underlying bid tone to the dollar overall, and that's kind of why we're
holding in around 106 for now," said Bechtel.

Markets are currently pricing in 57 bps of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal
Reserve by the end of the year, with expectations for a cut of at least 25
bps not topping 50% until the June meeting.

 

Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday he will follow
a wait-and-see approach regarding central bank interest rate policy until it
is clear inflation is returning to the Fed's 2% target given the current
uncertainty surrounding the economy.

 

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Wednesday that new home sales plunged
10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000 units last month,
short of the 680,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters, hurt by
persistently high mortgage rates and unusually cold weather in some parts of
the country.

 

Investors were also eyeing any peace talks over Ukraine, which could affect
the euro area economy and the single currency.

Ukraine said on Wednesday it had reached a "preliminary" deal to hand
revenue from some of its mineral resources to the United States, before an
expected trip to Washington by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday.

 

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.04% to 148.96 after falling
to 148.56 on Tuesday, its lowest since October 11.

Sterling strengthened 0.09% to $1.2677. Bank of England policymaker Swati
Dhingra said the BoE's response to higher tariffs and other trade
restrictions will depend on the extent supply chains are disrupted and not
just increasing costs, as higher tariffs would likely be offset by softer
global growth in the short-term.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Gold prices slip, investors eye upcoming US PCE data

 

(Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Wednesday after a recent record rally,
while investors looked towards inflation data due later this week and the
latest developments on U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.

 

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $2,912.51 an ounce as of 01:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT).
Bullion, a preferred hedge against uncertainty and inflation, hit a record
high of $2,956.15 on Monday amid trade war concerns emerging from tariff
threats.

 

 

U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,930.60.

On Tuesday, Trump ordered a probe into potential new, opens new tab tariffs
on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of a metal critical to electric
vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods.

 

"Bullish trend is still in place... We are not surprised by a period of
consolidation ahead of some piece of important data," said David Meger,
director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

 

Investors' focus was also on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(PCE) report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, due on
Friday.

 

 

Higher than expected inflationary pressures could delay further rate cuts,
which is priced in; gold is one of the quintessential hedges against those
inflationary pressures, so it should gain more, Meger added.

The U.S. central bank reduced the interest rate three times in the previous
year, amounting to a total cut of 75 basis points.

Money markets are currently pricing 54 bps of Fed rate cuts by the year-end,
which implies two 25 bps easing moves and around a 20% chance of an
additional cut.

"Central bank behaviour will be key to gold's fortunes, as they have been an
important element for demand in recent years," Frank Watson, market analyst
at Kinesis Money, said in a note.

Spot silver rose 0.3% to $31.81, platinum fell 0.1% to $965.55 and palladium
was down 0.9% at $919.50.

Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid
U.S. newsletter. Sign up here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


 (c) 2025 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

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