Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 13 January 2025

Tue Jan 14 08:23:48 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 13 January 2025

ZSE commentary 

ZSE records gains in week opening session

The market recorded gains in the week opening session as the primary All
Share Index rose 0.23% to 208.84pts while, the Blue-Chip Index added 0.37%
to 207.37pts . The Agriculture Index lost 0.0001% to 177.76pts as the Mid
Cap Index eased 0.23% to 239.68pts. Telecoms giant Econet headlined the top
performers of the day on a 9.85% jump to $3.0010, followed by Zimre Holdings
that charged 6.66% to $0.1600. Ecocash Holdings put on 4.74% to close at
$0.2915 while, beverages giant  Delta  ticked  up  0.03%  to  end  the  day
pegged  at $13.9716. ART led the laggards of the day on a 14.80% dip to
$0.2015  while,  Mashonaland  Holdings dropped  12.20% to

while, Star Africa fell 0.14% to $0.0200. Seed producer SeedCo limited
completed the fallers of the day on a 0.04% retreat to settle at $2.1000.
The market closed on a negative breadth of two after six counters recorded
losses against four that faltered.

Activity aggregates were depressed in the session as volume traded declined
by 91.93% to 825,600 shares while, total value traded shed 92.07% to
$903,977.00. Top volume drivers of the day were Proplastics (51.85%), Ar
iston (22.09%} and Ecocash (11.22%). Proplastics, Delta and SeedCo anchored
the total value traded after contributing 47.36%, 25.50% and 8.69%
respectively. A total of 48,920 units exchanged hands in the ETF section.
Morgan & Co Multi sector ETF dropped 0.11% to $1.9977 while, OMIT ETF closed
1.30% weaker at $0.1900. Tigere REIT firmed up 0.03% to end the day pegged
at $1.2000 after 1.48m shares exchanged hands in the name. Revitus REIT
slipped 0.98% to settle at $0.9225..  –efesecurites

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

Rand weakens against dollar surge

JOHANNESBURG - The rand has been the second worst-performing emerging market
currency, losing 1.75 percent of its value against the US dollar.

The rand was stronger for the second half of last year after the formation
of the government of national unity. 

But that was not enough to sustain the rand's strength indefinitely without
real levels of economic growth. 

The local unit is now being dragged by a stronger US dollar which gained
momentum after the world's biggest economy recorded that its labour market
added an 256,000 jobs in December.

Ghana

Cedi loses grounds against dollar but records gain against pound; one dollar
equals GH¢15.85

The Ghana cedi lost 0.48% to the dollar last week, increasing its
year-to-date loss to 1.27% with just 13 days into 2025.

The local currency closed at a mid-rate of GH¢15.68 to one American
greenback. It also depreciated by 0.62% to the euro, while it gained 0.26%
versus the pound.

It began this week, January 13, 2025, trading at GH¢15.85 to one American
greenback.

Looking ahead, the Central Bank plans to auction its first US$20 million to
the Bulk Oil Distribution Companies (BDCs) this week.

While the action may help address some demand, analysts expect the cedi to
remain under pressure for most of this week as the strong forex demand
continues to persist.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Pound hits 14-month low against dollar as CBI hits out over ‘hole in
confidence’

The head of Britain’s biggest lobby group has accused the government of
damaging business “confidence and trust”, as the pound hit a new 14-month
low against the US dollar.

Rupert Soames, the chair of the Confederation of British Industry (CBI),
criticised the measures being introduced by the government.

Sterling fell by a cent, or 0.8%, against the dollar to a low of $1.21 on
Monday, the lowest since the start of November 2023. The UK currency is in
focus after turmoil in the bond markets last week, which piled pressure on
the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

The dollar has soared to its highest since late 2022 against a
trade-weighted basket of currencies as investors have adjusted to
expectations of delays in interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve
fuelled by strong jobs data on Friday.

Financial markets are now pricing in just one cut to US interest rates this
year.

The euro also extended losses against the dollar, falling to its lowest
level since September 2022. The single currency hit a low of $1.0179, down
0.7%.

The rise of the dollar has added to pressure on the UK government, which has
faced sustained criticism from lobby groups since raising taxes on business
in Reeves’s budget in October.

Soames said ministers had created “a hole in the confidence and trust that
business has in government” after the tax rise and an increase in the
minimum wage.

Big businesses are also pushing back against the government’s employment
rights bill, which includes banning zero-hours contracts and introducing
protections from day one of a job.

Soames also said that the government’s proposed strengthening of employment
rights could prompt “quite an ugly rush” of job losses in the UK.

“As currently drafted, there are elements of the employment rights bill that
are going to be powerful dissuaders from companies employing people,” he
told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

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The government is bracing for more bond market turbulence, after a bruising
week in which ministers felt compelled to respond to concerns that
government borrowing could increase further as economic growth struggles.
More borrowing tends to push up bond yields, in effect the interest rate
paid by the government, as the debt becomes less attractive.

The yield on the 30-year gilt jumped as much as six basis points (0.06
percentage points) to 5.472%, the highest since 1998 as investors sold off
UK government bonds. It then eased back to about one basis point up on
Monday. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilt also rose by about five
basis points to 4.9%.

Investors are concerned over a potential repeat of the experience of Liz
Truss, whose time as prime minister was abruptly ended by bond market
turmoil in the wake of a mini-budget by the then chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng.
However, economists have said that conditions have not yet worsened that
much.

George Cole, an economist at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, wrote in a
note to clients on Friday: “The size of currency depreciation on a
trade-weighted basis is small relative to previous periods of gilt market
stress,” and much of the move against the dollar has come “during a period
of conspicuous [US dollar] strength”.

However, he added that the “sell-off raises the stakes for upcoming data”,
including on UK inflation.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 Price pressure on gold, silver, on profit taking

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are sharply down in early U.S. trading
Monday, on profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders after recent
good gains. A rally in the U.S. dollar index to a two-plus year high today
and rising U.S. Treasury yields are also bearish outside-market elements to
start the trading week. February gold was last down $26.10 at $2,688.90.
March silver was down $0.904 at $31.41.

Asian and European markets were mostly down overnight. U.S. stock indexes
are solidly lower and hit multi-week lows overnight. Stock traders are still
digesting the strong U.S. jobs report last Friday that pushed U.S. Treasury
yields and the U.S. dollar index higher.

Also worrisome to equities bulls, China posted a wider-than-expected trade
balance overnight, which may encourage the incoming Trump administration to
push harder for fresh tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. and start
another, harsher, trade war with China. China’s trade surplus soared last
year to an unprecedented $992 billion as exporters rushed to make up for
sluggish domestic demand.

The U.S. data point of the week is the consumer price index for December,
due out Wednesday. CPI is seen coming in at up 2.9%, year-on-year, versus up
2.7% in the November report. Excluding food and energy, the “core” CPI is
seen rising 0.2% after four straight months of 0.3% increases, according to
a Bloomberg survey. The core CPI is forecast to have risen 3.3%,
year-on-year, unchanged from readings from the previous three months.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index up and hit a
two-plus year high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are up, hit a six-month
high, and are trading around $78.25 a barrel. New Western sanctions on
Russian oil exports are credited in part for the recent rally in crude. The
yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.8%. The
10-year note yield stood at 3.65% when the Federal Reserve started cutting
U.S. rates in September.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends
index, the monthly retail chain stores sales index and the monthly Treasury
budget statement.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a
close above solid resistance at the December high of $2,761.30. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid
technical support at the December low of $2,596.70. First resistance is seen
at $2,700.00 and then at today’s high of $2,723.80. First support is seen at
the overnight low of $2,683.00 and then at $2,673.70. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0.

teaser image

March silver futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term
technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of
$31.84. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid support at the December low of $29.145. First resistance is seen
at $31.00 and then at at today’s high of $31.465. Next support is seen at
the overnight low of $30.255 and then at $30.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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