Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 January 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 January 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentary 

 

ZSE subdued in week-opener ...

 

The ZSE market was subdued in week opening session as the primary All Share
Index fell 0.59% to 206.53pts while, the Blue- Chip Index lost 0.06% to
205.SOpts. The Mid Cap Index added

 

to 179.49pts. Bankjng group CBZ headlined the worst performers of the  day
on a  11.08% decline that took  it to $7.5606, followed by General Beltings
that dropped 10.26% to $0.0700. Turnall slipped 8.33% to $0.0550 while, Star
Africa parred off 2.00% to close at $0.0235. Cable manufacturer CAFCA
tumbled 0.40% to end the day pegged at $20.4000. Trading in the positive was
sugar processor Hippo that surged 10.00% to $6 .6000 white, Zimre Holdings
Limited charged 8.33% to $0.1950. Life assurer Fidelity capped the top
performers of the day on a 0.13% lift to end the day pegged at $0.4005 .

 

 

Activity aggregates declined in the session as volume traded dropped 27.94%
to 7.99m shares while, value traded shed 61.69% to $7.47m . Top volume
drivers of the day were Star Africa (75.18%) and Econet (21.86%). The trio
of Econet and Delta were the top value drivers of the day after contributing
69.43% and 22.88% respectively. Morgan and Co Multi sector ETF closed 0.08%
weaker at $1.9884 after a total of 7,436 units exchanged hands in the
session. Tigere REIT dropped 0.75% to end the day pegged at $1.1850 as 622
units exchanged hands in the name. -efesecurites

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

South Africa

 

South African rand jumps ahead of Trump's policy announcements

(Reuters) - The South African rand jumped on Monday as markets waited for
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policy announcements for clarity on his
administration's fiscal stance.

At 1430 GMT the rand traded at 18.58 against the U.S. dollar , about 1%
stronger than its previous close. The greenback was down about 1% against a
basket of currencies.

Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th U.S. president later on Monday.

"The next few days will give some clarity on the Trump's administration
policies, and so the rand could see some further volatility," said Annabel
Bishop, chief economist at Investec.

Investors seek clarity on Trump's tariff and tax plans.

"A moderate tariff increase trajectory would imply less upwards pressure on
U.S. inflation, and in turn, more opportunity for U.S. interest rate cuts,
which has added to the rand's recent mild strength," Bishop added.

Domestic investors will focus this week on South Africa's November mining
production data (ZAMNG=ECI), opens new tab on Tuesday, the December consumer
inflation reading (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab on Wednesday and November
retail sales figures (ZARET=ECI), opens new tab on Thursday.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI),
opens new tab last traded about 0.1% up.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was slightly stronger, with
the yield down 5.5 basis points to 9.155%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

 

Naira lingers at N1,667/$ despite high Dollar volatility

The naira maintained the N1660-7 range against the haven currency in the
unofficial market despite high volatility in the dollar index following
President Trump's swearing-in.

 

Price action shows that naira bulls have little incentive to break below the
N1500/$ resistance line, as holders and speculators increasingly hedge on
the dollar.

 

The local currency is exhibiting an unusual period of stability one year
after a significant drop in the naira's value following President Tinubu's
assumption of office.

Illicit demand is indeed the key factor creating stress within Nigeria's
foreign exchange market, as stated by Taiwo Oyedele, chairman of the
Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.

 

"Nigeria's biggest problem with FX is not the supply of FX; it is the
illicit demand for FX," Oyedele remarked during The Covenant Nation's
Platform Economic Outlook for 2025 event.

 

"The impact of that discretionary demand increases with the extent of
corruption. Even in the private sector, it is taking place. Although most
Nigerians have never seen a dollar banknote, members of the elite,
high-net-worth individuals, super-rich people, and a segment of the middle
class have. The belief that the value of the naira will decline is a
self-fulfilling prophecy. All of your savings are being converted to US
dollars. Over the past 18 months, the balance of domiciliary accounts has
grown by over $6 billion. There is more than $30 billion remaining."

 

The CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso, additionally suggested a detailed
strategy for curtailing the commoditization of the naira and restoring its
status as a viable currency for the nation.

 

In this regard, the committee of heads of bank operations held their
first-ever conference on the topic, "The Way Forward: Naira
Commoditization," over the past weekend in Lagos.

 

As Cardoso pointed out, the commoditization of the naira poses a real threat
to the lives of ordinary Nigerians who use the naira for transactions and to
the economy integrated with the banking sector. He highlighted the process
of naira commoditization as the deconstruction of the national unit's
dignity, where it ceases to function as a medium of exchange for goods and
services of economic value and transforms into a capital-tradable asset with
shifting value.

 

He maintained that the naira is more than just a currency; it is an integral
part of Nigeria's identity. However, in recent times, the naira has been
treated more like a commodity than a currency.

 

President Donald Trump Strengthens the Dollar

President Donald Trump hinted that the United States might soon impose
tariffs on Canada and Mexico, giving the dollar some strength amid a
volatile trading session.

The dollar index recovered 0.6 per cent to 108.65 index points after losing
1.2 percent overnight, marking the largest daily loss since late 2023.

It was reported that Trump's team was considering a 25 percent tariff that
could be announced on February 1, but provided no further details.

Officials had previously indicated that any new taxes would be applied in a
"measured" manner, which would have been hugely beneficial for currencies
exposed to trade, so the remarks were unexpected. The memo instructed
agencies to look into and address ongoing trade deficits.

Market players anticipated that Trump would begin with China, imposing
tariffs of between 10-20% on goods and then gradually increasing them.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

 

Dollar pares losses as Trump floats Canada, Mexico tariffs

(Reuters) - The dollar pared some overnight losses on Tuesday after U.S.
President Donald Trump suggested the United States could impose tariffs on
Canada and Mexico in the near future, challenging suggestions his policies
would be more gradual.

Trump told reporters his team was thinking of tariffs around 25% that could
be announced on Feb. 1, but offered no other specifics. He also floated the
idea of universal tariffs, but said the United States was not ready for that
yet.

The dollar had fallen sharply on Monday after Trump's first day included no
specific plans on tariffs and officials signalled any new taxes would be
imposed in a "measured" way, a major relief for trade-exposed currencies.

A following trade memo merely directed agencies to investigate and remedy
persistent trade deficits.

A tariff of "25% looks high as a starter, and markets reacted quickly,
especially in FX", said Shoki Omori, chief global desk strategist at Mizuho
Securities in Tokyo.

"I think market participants thought Trump would start with China, with say
a 10-20% tariff on goods but gradual increase."

The market reaction was a knee-jerk fall in the Canadian dollar and Mexican
peso. The dollar climbed 0.6% to 1.4397 Canadian dollar and added 0.9% on
the peso .

The dollar index edged up 0.2% to 108.210, having shed 1.2% overnight in
what had been the sharpest daily loss since late 2023.

VOLATILE TIMES

The euro eased back to $1.0389 , from an early top of $1.0434. The EU runs a
sizeable trade surplus with the United States and has been seen as a major
target for Trump's tariffs.

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he would remedy the trade
imbalance either through tariffs or by Europe buying more U.S. oil and gas.

"The first few hours of the Trump administration has underscored that policy
environment will be dynamic once again and markets should brace for
volatility," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo in
Singapore.

"Clearly, the markets celebrated too soon with tariff threats missing at the
outset in Trump's inaugural speech."

The inauguration speech focused on emergencies in immigration and energy and
a more expansionist foreign policy, including a pledge to take back the
Panama Canal.

In his first term in office, Trump had a history of announcing imminent
plans for policy proposals, including on healthcare and infrastructure, only
for nothing to eventuate.

The dollar could not sustain a bounce on the Japanese yen and slipped 0.5%
to a near five-week trough around 154.78 . The yen has been supported by
growing expectations the Bank of Japan would raise rates at its policy
meeting this Friday.

The dollar added 0.2% on the Chinese yuan to 7.2847 . Trump has in the past
threatened China with tariffs of up to 60%, but was vague on his plans on
Monday.

Beijing later set a stronger fix for the yuan, suggesting it was still
inclined to not let the currency fall too quickly.

 

.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

Gold holds gain as reduced threat of US trade war hurts dollar

 

Gold held an advance as President Donald Trump held off from imposing
sweeping trade tariffs against China and other nations on his first day in
office, which hurt the US dollar.

 

Bullion traded near $2 710 an ounce, after prices edged higher on Monday as
the greenback tumbled by the most in 14 months. Fears over a full-blown
trade war have eased, with Trump instead ordering his administration to
address unfair trade practices globally and investigate whether Beijing had
complied with a deal signed during his first term. A weaker dollar tends to
boost bullion's appeal.

 

As the immediate risk of fresh tariffs faded, the gap between New York and
London prices for gold and silver narrowed. The spread had widened in recent
weeks as traders prepared for the possibility of sweeping curbs.

 

Investors were also weighing the outlook for inflation, with Trump's
domestic agenda of tax cuts and increased spending potentially pointing to
ongoing price pressures this year. That may limit the Federal Reserve's
ability to keep easing monetary policy. Higher borrowing costs typically
pose a headwind for bullion, as it does not pay interest.

 

Gold set a series of records in 2024, with gains driven by the Fed's pivot
to looser monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and central-bank buying.
The precious metal may yet receive a further boost from demand for haven
assets amid concerns about the new president's immigration policy, as well
as scope for increasingly fraught US relations with other nations.

 

Elsewhere, traders were monitoring the impact of a long-delayed ceasefire
deal in the Gaza war as Hamas released three female hostages in exchange for
90 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.

 

Spot gold was up 0.1% to $2 710.84 an ounce at 8:23 a.m. in Singapore. The
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.2%, after a 1.1% loss on Monday.
Silver and platinum edged up, while palladium was little changed. 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


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