Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 21 January 2025

Wed Jan 22 08:47:22 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 21 January 2025

ZSE commentary 

ZSE Heavy and Mid Cap counters weigh the market...

Heavy and Mid cap counters weighed down the market in

Tuesday's session as the All Share Index dropped 0.84% to 204.80pts. The
Blue Chip Index was 0.29% weaker at 204.91pts while, the Mid Cap Index was
2.79% lower at 228.30pts. The Agriculture Index was the major loser amongst
the indices as it fell by 4.84% to 170.80pts on the back of losses in
SeedCo, Tanganda, Dairibord and BAT. Leading the laggards of the day was
SeedCo Limited that plunged 14.95% to close at a VWAP of $1.7861 while, tea
producer Tanganda parred off 14.77% to close at $1.5593. Logistics concern
Unifreight that is trading under a cautionary retreated 14.60% to settle at
$2.1200 where demand could be found. Dairy processor Dairibord plunged
12.83% to $1.9525 while, cigarette producer BAT trimmed 8.54% to close at
$96.0294 as it capped the top five worst performers of the day. Trading in
the positive category was Hippo Valley that edged up 10.00% to $6.6000
while, Zimre Holdings was 8.33% firmer at $0.1950. Insurer Fidelity was
0.13% up at $0.4005.

Activity aggregates improved in the session as volume traded jumped 56.90%
to settle at 12.54m shares while, turnover rose by 8.80% to $8.13m. In the
volume category, Star Africa drove activity in the session as it contributed
63.97% of the total traded. The other notable volume driver of the day was
SeedCo Limited that contributed 11.87%. Value drivers of the day were SeedCo
Limited (32.72%}, Econet {22.45%) and Delta (12.87%). The Morgan & Co Multi
Sector ETF was 1.21% lower at $1.9644. The Tigere REIT was stable at prior
session's price level of $1.1850 as 251,005 units exchanged hands in the
-efesecurites

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand retreats against sturdy dollar after Trump swearing in

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand retreated early on Tuesday against a buoyant
dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a flurry of policy
changes following his Monday inauguration.

At 0712 GMT, the rand traded at 18.6150 against the U.S. dollar, about 0.6%
weaker than its previous close. It gained about 1% on Monday ahead of
Trump's swearing in.

The dollar last traded about 0.4% stronger against a basket of currencies.

Trump did not take immediate action to raise tariffs, a focus for global
markets, but said the world's biggest economy could impose tariffs on Canada
and Mexico in the near future.

"I think we need to wait until Trump's government is fully installed before
decisions come on tariffs," said Adam Phillips, treasury specialist at
Umkhulu Treasury.

Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often takes direction from
global drivers like U.S. fiscal policy in addition to local factors.

Domestically focused investors will on Tuesday look to November mining
production data expected at 0930 GMT and South African President Cyril
Ramaphosa's address to the World Economic Forum later in the day.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index last traded
about 0.1% down.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger, with the yield
down 2.5 basis points to 9.145%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar flat in choppy trading as investors await tariff certainty

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar alternated between gains and losses on Tuesday
in a choppy session, as markets grappled with uncertainty surrounding any
tariffs President Donald Trump may implement.

Trump told reporters he was thinking about implementing tariffs of around
25% on imports from Canada and Mexico as of Feb. 1 over fentanyl crossing
into the country and migrants entering illegally. He also raised the
possibility of a universal tariff but said the U.S. was not ready for that
yet.

The dollar rose as much as 0.68% earlier in the session as the greenback
attempted to bounce back from a sharp decline on Monday. Trump's first day
in office passed with no specific plans on tariffs and officials said any
new taxes would be imposed in a measured way, a relief for trade-exposed
currencies.

"Volatility is clearly back in a big way, and after the relatively calm term
of Joe Biden, FX markets are on a hair trigger for any tariff talk from the
Trump administration," said Helen Given, FX trader at Monex USA in
Washington. "Trump's proposed tariffs, though, are right now still just that
- proposals."

"Traders are trying to get ahead of the risk of tariffs on Mexico and
Canada, but until such actions materialize, trying to hedge around them is
going to keep markets very choppy, and we've seen that price action today."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of
currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.01% to 108.00 after
dropping 1.24% on Monday. After hitting a more than two-year high of 110.17
last week, largely on anticipation of tariffs, the greenback has shown signs
of fatigue and has fallen in five of the past six sessions.

"What you're seeing here, too, is just how crowded long dollar positioning
is. All you need is some ambiguity on the tariff front, and you get these
kind of moves," said Erik Bregar, director, FX & precious metals risk
management, at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto.

The euro was up 0.11% at $1.0425. The EU is also seen as a likely target for
Trump's tariff policies. Sterling strengthened 0.04% to $1.2328.

Talking to reporters on Monday, Trump said he would remedy the trade
imbalance either through tariffs or by Europe buying more U.S. oil and gas.

A subsequent trade memo directed agencies to investigate and remedy
persistent trade deficits. Analysts at Barclays said the memo should be seen
as a "blueprint for what to expect next on tariffs," and April 1, when the
agency reports are due, will be an important date.

The Canadian dollar weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to C$1.43 per dollar
while the Mexican peso was down 0.64% versus the dollar at 20.649.

Economic data showed Canada's inflation rate slowed in December to 1.8%,
which could give the Bank of Canada room to cut interest rates again next
week at its policy meeting.

A line chart titled "Annual change in Canada's consumer prices" that tracks
the metric over the five years. In December the nationwide inflation rate
fell to 1.8%.

Trump's inauguration speech focused on emergencies in immigration and energy
and a more expansionist foreign policy, including a pledge to take back the
Panama Canal.

Against the Japanese yen , the dollar edged down 0.03% to 155.54.

The yen has strengthened against the dollar in three of the last four
sessions, supported by growing expectations the Bank of Japan will raise
interest rates on Friday.

Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura said at a Reuters NEXT
Newsmaker event that a weak yen would increase inflation by boosting import
costs. Mimura said the government and the central bank were communicating
closely every day through various channels.

Markets are pricing an 86.2% chance of a quarter-point increase.

The dollar strengthened 0.04% against the offshore Chinese yuan to 7.264.
Trump has threatened China with tariffs of up to 60% but did not detail any
plans on Monday.

Beijing later set a stronger fix for the yuan, suggesting it was still
inclined to take steps to prop up the currency.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold holds gain as Gold hits over 2-month high on Trump policy risks, weak
dollar

(Reuters) - Gold prices jumped to an over two-month peak on Tuesday,
supported by a weaker dollar and as markets flocked to the safe-haven asset
amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's potential
tariffs.

Spot gold climbed 1.3% to $2,742.48 per ounce by 02:36 p.m. ET (1936 GMT),
reaching its highest level since Nov. 6 and nearing the all-time high of
$2,790.15 set in October.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2,759.20.

The dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab slipped 1.2%, holding close to a
two-week low hit in the previous session and making bullion less expensive
for holders of other currencies.

"Today's move has largely been about the threat of U.S. blanket tariffs
following Trump's inauguration. The information with respect to potential
tariffs has only come in at a trickle," said Daniel Ghali, commodity
strategist at TD Securities.

The newly elected president has not provided any specific details about the
universal tariffs or extra surcharges on key trade partners, a key plank of
his election campaign.

He has, however, hinted at the possibility of imposing duties on Canadian
and Mexican goods as soon as Feb. 1.

During the first year of Trump's first administration in 2017, bullion
logged a 13% yearly gain, its best annual performance in seven.

Bullion is considered a safe investment during economic and geopolitical
uncertainty, but Trump's proposed policies are widely seen as inflationary,
which could push the U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates
for a longer period to curb price pressures.

High rates hurt the non-yielding asset's appeal.

"The market is probably also looking ahead to next week's FOMC meeting and
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, particularly the inflation
read," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at
Zaner Metals.

"I don't think anybody is expecting the Fed to do anything next week, but
certainly the policy statement will be looked at very closely for hints
about the remainder of the year."

Spot silver rose 0.9% to $30.77 per ounce. Palladium gained 1.1% to $955.50
and platinum was little changed at $942.40.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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