Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 24 January 2025
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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 24 January 2025
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw>
ü Africa: Global Education Must Integrate AI, Centred On Humanity
ü Rwanda: Kagame's Visit to Türkiye Signals Renewed Cooperation
ü Nigeria Poised for Economic Gains in 2025, Projects Inflation Below 30% -
Expert
ü Nigeria: Experts Advance Reasons for Nigeria's Low Passenger Growth
Record in Air Travel
ü Nigeria Still Far From Solving Electricity Challenges, Declares NLC
Chair, Joe Ajaero
ü Gabon's Dollar Bonds Gain As Junta Sets Election for April
ü Africa: Could Trump Really Blow Up the Global Trade System?
ü Africa: A Dream Deferred - Why Is Traveling Across Africa So Hard for
Africans?
ü Zambia's Copper Output Rises 12 Percent in 2024 Despite Drought
ü Namibia: Govt Delays Household Electrification Target By 10 Years
ü Somalia: Mogadishu Airport Turmoil - Flight Delays Amid Dispute Over New
Airline Fees
ü Nigeria's Public Debt Rises By N8.02trn to N142.3trn in Q3 2024
ü Somalia and Egypt Strengthen Ties With Strategic Partnership Agreement
ü Nigeria: Okonjo-Iweala Cautions WTO Members Against Tit-for-Tat Tariffs
ü Bank of Japan raises rates to highest in 17 years
ü US doesn't need Canadian energy or cars, says Trump
ü Trump told not to put massive tariffs on UK
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw>
Africa: Global Education Must Integrate AI, Centred On Humanity
Marking the International Day of Education, UN Secretary-General António
Guterres has emphasized learning as a basic human right and foundation for
individual and societal growth.
His message highlighted the dual nature of technological advances such as
Artificial Intelligence (AI), which offer immense potential - but also pose
considerable risks.
"Education is an essential building block for every person to reach their
full potential, and for societies and economies to grow and flourish", Mr.
Guterres said.
AI promise and risks
The UN chief stressed that AI and other tech innovations can significantly
aid students and teachers by providing wider access to information and
advanced learning tools.
"But the tremendous rewards are matched by some daunting risks. As AI-driven
systems become more powerful, human intention and machine-driven impacts can
easily misalign", he added.
This year, the UN education and culture agency, UNESCO, is dedicating the
Day to the opportunities and challenges of AI.
Director-General Audrey Azoulay called for more investment in training both
teachers and students so it can be used responsibly.
"AI offers major opportunities, provided that its deployment in schools is
guided by clear ethical principles. To reach its full potential, this
technology must complement the human and social dimensions of learning,
rather than replace them.", Mr. Azoulay said.
Human rights at the heart of AI
Stressing that this year's day reminds us that unlocking the AI's potential
"depends on keeping human agency - and human rights - at the heart of this
rapidly evolving technology", the UN Secretary-General called for guarantees
that all users have the right tools and knowledge to "use this technology
smartly, safely and ethically".
UNESCO's Competency Frameworks to support learners and teachers as they
incorporate AI into their learning, and the recently adopted Global Digital
Compact, are expected to help ensure humanity retains control over the
development and governance of AI.
Concluding his message, Mr. Guterres called for a commitment to "keeping
humanity at the centre of education systems, everywhere".
Divisions over AI
As AI becomes more integrated into education, countries remain divided on
its use. According to UNESCO's latest data, in high-income nations, over
two-thirds of secondary school students are already leveraging generative AI
tools to support their schoolwork.
However, a significant challenge remains with education professionals still
lacking clear guidelines.
A UNESCO survey conducted in May 2023, covering 450 educational
institutions, revealed that only 10 per cent of schools and universities
have an official framework for AI use.
Simultaneously, an increasing number of countries are imposing restrictions
on new technologies in the classroom. New data from UNESCO indicates that
nearly 40 per cent of nations now have laws or policies banning mobile
phones in schools, a notable rise from 24 per cent in July 2023.
For more insights, listen to the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to
Education, Farida Shaheed, who recently discussed the role of AI in schools
and the challenges it brings in an interview with UN News.
Access to education
The International Day reminds us that access to high-quality education is a
human right that not only greatly benefits individuals but also uplifts
entire communities.
Millions of children, however, remain out of school due to a variety of
factors including gender, location, social background or conflict.
Despite decades of educational progress and international commitments,
according to UNESCO's latest data, 250 million children and youth remain out
of school worldwide.
Safe and inclusive
In a recent study, UNESCO reported that almost one in three learners has
been physically attacked at least once during the school year and one in ten
experiences cyberbullying.
With too many children across the world experiencing violence in and around
schools, the impacts can be devastating - affecting the well-being,
education outcomes and quality of life of students.
Watch youngsters here explain what they need to make schools safer.- UN
News.
Rwanda: Kagame's Visit to Türkiye Signals Renewed Cooperation
President Paul Kagame travelled Wednesday, January 22, to Türkiye on a
two-day official visit. During his visit, he was welcomed by his Turkish
counterpart President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a military honor guard, a
symbol of ultimate respect and dignity.
In Ankara, President Kagame, who traveled with First Lady Jeannette Kagame,
visited the mausoleum of Atatürk, where a wreath-laying ceremony was
performed to honor the founder of modern Turkey and the country's first
President, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk.
Kagame and his Turkish counterpart held a tête-a-tête meeting at the
Presidential Palace after which bilateral discussion was held.
Key among other highlights of the visit was the signing of four cooperation
agreements that cover everything from defense industries, media and
communications, as well as civil aviation.
These agreements set a foundation for which the two countries plan to
strengthen their bilateral relations. These are not mere agreements, the
signatures put on the papers could help elevate Rwanda and Türkiye relations
to a new high.
The two countries have already had good relations that dates decades back.
But it wasn't until 2013 and 2014 when the two countries opened embassies
that they made another commitment to take their relations to another level.
As a result, the relations that exist between Rwanda and Türkiye has meant
that trade and investments across the two nations has not only thrived, but
it has enabled the creation of thousands of employment opportunities.
As Turkish President revealed, the total combined trade volume increased
between Rwanda and Türkiye grew from worth just a million dollar in the year
2,000 to $500 million currently.
These are not statistics. Anyone who's traveled across Rwanda can testify
that Turkish investors are flourishing. One among major milestones to
celebrate is their investments in construction and infrastructure, including
the renovation of Amahoro Stadium, and the construction of the Kigali Arena.
Türkiye occupies a middle ground between developed and developing countries.
It has accelerated its industrial development. The country has built
capacity to produce high value goods, including drones, electric vehicles,
and military equipment.
Rwanda has a chance to partner with Türkiye as it accelerates its journey
towards achieving economic transformation, and this visit only signifies
renewed momentum.
-New Times.
Nigeria Poised for Economic Gains in 2025, Projects Inflation Below 30% -
Expert
An expert in the Nigerian financial service sector, Mr. Ugodre Obi-Chukwu
has projected that the Nigerian economy is poised for growth in 2025 with
inflation expected to drop below 30 per cent, paving the way for improved
investment prospects.
Obi-Chukwu who is the Founder/CEO of Nairametrics, in a presentation titled,
"Nigeria's Macroeconomic Outlook 2025," which he delivered at the Finance
Correspondence Association of Nigeria's (FICAN) lecture tagged, "Outlook for
the Nigerian Economy in 2025," where he projected that Nigeria's public debt
would reach N150 trillion by the end of 2025.
According to him: "I believe that inflation numbers are going to start
falling, and we think it will fall below 30 per cent borderline 29 to 30 per
cent,"
He attributed the expected decline to base effects from 2024's high
inflation levels adding, "It is going to take a lot to get inflation down,
but that aggressive fall in 2025 will be a relief."
He further noted that this reduction in inflation could stimulate a more
favorable environment for investments.
"With inflation tapering and looking stable, I think that investment will be
a lot better this year compared to 2024. It is a good time to invest in
treasury bills and fixed-income securities," Obi-Chukwu advised.
He said the passage of the tax reform bills pending at the National Assembly
would bring Nigeria businesses, especially the multinationals, under serious
tax pressure by 2025.
He said: "In 2026, taxes will go up once these tax reform bills are passed
and signed into law. But it is the same people that had been paying that
will keep paying. Taxes are going to be a lot more serious over the next
three years because of government's need to fund its expenditures.
"There is no way the government will meet its revenue spend without
increasing taxes. So, a lot of Nigerian businesses are going to face tax
pressures over the next three years. And it is going to start with the
multinationals because they are businesses that are easily recognisable
because it is those that are already paying taxes that they are going to
start with."
He added that some state governments are going to be more aggressive in
their collection of personal income tax now that the sharing formula for VAT
collection is going to be altered.
He also projected that Naira would depreciate further in 2025 because of the
governments' fiscal deficit financing.
According to him, countries that run fiscal deficits always experience
exchange rate depreciation. "You cannot expect your exchange rate to be
stable if you are running a fiscal deficit, which is essentially funded
through borrowing that indirectly weakens the currency," he said, adding
that "Nigeria has being running a fiscal deficit for the past 10 years. And
2025 is the highest fiscal deficit to be witnessed in a single year."
Obi-Chukwu also emphasized that the Nigerian public debt, which is now at
N135 trillion, would likely go up to N150 trillion by the end of this
current year.
He, however, argued that the possible increase in the size of the country's
economy that might come with the rebasing of the GDP would provide the
justification that Nigeria has room to borrow more in terms of its debt to
GDP ratio.
Obi-Chukwu also added that the federal government is likely to resort to
borrowing to pay the Euro bond that would mature in 2025.
He also noted that Nigeria's foreign trade performance remains strong, with
a trade surplus driven by crude oil and gas exports, which account for 90
per cent of total exports.
Obi-Chukwu emphasised the risks of this heavy reliance on crude oil,
particularly in the face of fluctuating global oil prices.
"Nigeria is still at risk as a monolithic economy. We can do much more from
crude oil exports, but diversification is critical to reducing
vulnerability," he remarked.
Furthermore on forex market and capital flows, he reiterated that the
Central Bank of Nigeria's (CBN) forex reforms have brought a degree of
stability to the market, with interventions bolstering investor confidence
and inflows from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) expected to
further enhance liquidity.
"CBN forex reforms boost confidence for foreign investors," Obi-Chukwu said,
adding that the introduction of the Enhanced Foreign Exchange Monitoring
System (EFEMS) will ensure transparency and credibility in forex
transactions."
He highlighted potential upsides, including expected cuts in U.S. interest
rates, which could attract capital inflows, and Nigeria's removal from the
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, which will likely boost forex
remittances.
Despite these positive indicators, Obi-Chukwu warned of significant
challenges. The demand for forex remains subdued due to the massive
devaluation of the naira, while the country's large fiscal deficit poses a
risk of further exchange rate depreciation.
"Nigeria still relies heavily on imports to meet local consumption, and this
could impact exchange rate stability," he noted. High borrowing costs and
looming debt repayments also present fiscal risks.
Obi-Chukwu cautioned that Nigeria's dependence on crude oil could become a
liability if global oil prices fall. "We need to address our economic
structure and explore diversification to safeguard against these
vulnerabilities," he said.
Despite the challenges, Obi-Chukwu sees 2025 as a year ripe with
opportunities for investors. With inflation stabilising and forex reforms in
place, fixed-income securities, treasury bills, and equities offer
attractive options for capital allocation.
He also pointed to oil sector reforms and expected transparency in forex
transactions as key drivers of growth in the upstream sector. However, he
emphasized the need for fiscal discipline, sustained policy reforms, and
economic diversification to secure long-term stability.
"The outlook for 2025 is promising, but strategic efforts are required to
unlock Nigeria's economic potential," Obi-Chukwu concluded.
He forecasted that the likely trends that would be seen in 2025 would
include a drop in the Japa syndrome.
He said: "I think that we are now at the beginning of the end of Japa trend
because of the tightening of immigration laws across the world. Moreover,
those abroad are beginning to realise that staying abroad is not as rosy as
it seemed outside. The drop in Japa syndrome will have a huge effect on the
workforce in the country as more competent hands would be retained within
the country."
On opportunities in 2025, he advised investors to hold their money in
dollars as a buffer to anticipated depreciation of the Naira. "Also put your
money in fixed income assets. The equity market is also attractive. Today's
Nigerian stock market is not the reckless 2009 stock market. It is a lot
more robust."
-This Day.
Nigeria: Experts Advance Reasons for Nigeria's Low Passenger Growth Record
in Air Travel
With a population of over 200 million people, it is expected that Nigeria
should be adding about four million passengers annually to the number of
persons that travel by air both on domestic and international destinations,
but air travel statistics show undulating results that sometimes oscillate,
indicating that there is really no growth in the number of air travellers
annually.
In 2021, Nigeria recorded 14, 249, 542, air travel according to records from
the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA). This was made up of 12, 050,
264 domestic passenger movement and 2, 199, 278 international passenger
movement.
In 2022, Nigeria recorded about 16. 2 million in both domestic and
international travel with over 12 million on domestic travel, while about
four million travelled on international destinations.
But Nigeria recorded a total number of 15, 895, 265 passengers in 2023,
which was less than 16, 172, 433 passengers that passed through the airports
in 2022 and there are indications that the number of passengers who
travelled by air in 2024 would be less than the previous year, going by the
first, second and third quarters results released by NCAA.
When compared to other developing countries that have the population near or
above that of Nigeria it becomes obvious that Nigeria is not recording
passenger growth in air travel both for local and international
destinations.
In 2023, Brazil recorded 112.6 million passengers on domestic and
international flights, marking a 15.3 percent increase from 2022's 97.6
million passengers, as reported by Minister of Ports and Airports Silvio
Costa Filho.
In Indonesia, from January to August 2023, the number of domestic air
transport passengers was 41.6 million, increasing by 22.46 percent. The
number of international air transport passengers was 9.9 million and
increased by 212.55 percent compared to the same period in 2022.
Egypt's airports recorded tremendous growth in air traffic rates during
2023, receiving approximately 47 million passengers, an increase of 28 per
cent compared to that of 2022, according to a statement issued by the
country's Ministry of Aviation.
Looking at the stifling growth in the Nigerian Aviation sector, the Managing
Director of Aero Contractors and former Managing Director of the Nigerian
Airspace Management Agency (NAMA), Captain Ado Sanusi, told THISDAY that the
economic situation of the country may have reflected on how people travel,
noting that there is somewhat economic recession and the naira/dollar parity
is a disincentive to international travel and that was why many Nigerians
who hitherto travel overseas for summer stayed back in Nigeria and there was
drop in air travel on international destinations.
"It is not easy to keep up with rising ticket costs; so, people only embark
on compulsory travel because there was marked reduction of flights. So, the
major reason is the reflection of the economic situation in Nigeria.
Recession is disincentive for travel. We have sluggish growth in the
economy. The inflation rate is growing, interest rate is rising and these
are the indices of a troubled economy," Sanusi said.
Industry stakeholder and former Commandant of the Murtala Muhammed
International Airport, Lagos, Group Captain John Ojikutu (rtd), said that
the major challenge why Nigerians travel less by air was as a result of the
high cost of ticket. He noted that the deteriorating economy is the major
reason why Nigeria is not recording increase in passenger traffic in air
travel like some aforementioned countries are doing.
"In Nigeria, average airfare of one hour will be almost thrice the average
salary in the country? Like you said, most air travellers in Nigeria are
regular travellers, mainly government and corporate officials and whose
airfares are paid by their employers. How does the sector grow? In 2000, we
targeted 20 million passengers for 2020 but 5 years after we are still less
than the 20 million. What stuff should we still be looking for?
"'Let the Common People Fly' can only be where the GDP is high enough to
support the population. With our population and GDP, can we stand by the
side of India? We have smaller airports like Ibadan, Akure, Ilorin, Minna,
Jos, Makurdi, Yola, etc, what has been the figures of the passengers and air
traffic in the last 20 years? Not many of these or none has risen up to or
must have gone beyond 100,000 in any year. If government minimum pay is
N70,000 and air tickets average is N200,000 on airlines that are generally
private and not public, who gives a place for the common man in a private
airline? We have a long way to go with the political office holders who only
come get their pockets filled with the public money and walk away into
private life," he said.
Some years ago, during public hearing on aviation matters in the Senate, one
of the major operators in Nigeria, Captain Edward Boyo, explained why
airfares are high and why many Nigerians cannot travel by air. He noted that
air fares are high because of the huge taxes. So, if government wants more
people to travel, it would have to review downwards its taxes and charges
built into the ticket.
"We have a population of 200 million, why can't the common man fly in
Nigeria? We talk of zoning airports; respectfully we are not zoning any
airport in Nigeria. Every airport has the same goal, with similar cost
because we have a centralised airport system unless we are going to
dismantle it.
"Every Nigerian has a right to travel to his own destination at equal cost;
after all, a mobile phone call here is the same price as a mobile to my
grandfather in Maiduguri as of today. So we must look at bringing down
costs.The laws you make will shape tomorrow and the future. Let me say this,
the National Assembly is the hope of the common man. Airline operators today
are suffering, that is why the Senate must ask the executive why are
airlines dying in Nigeria?
"Over 100 airlines, if am correct, have died in the last few years. So it is
good that we are modifying the laws today. It is our hope that these new
laws you are going to make will support the existence of the ordinary
Nigerians not the existence of us in this room (VIPs) that can afford
everything," Boyo said.
-This Day.
Nigeria Still Far From Solving Electricity Challenges, Declares NLC Chair,
Joe Ajaero
President of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Comrade Joe Ajaero,
yesterday, lamented what he described as the poor state of the nation's
power supply.
According to him, the country was nowhere in terms of stability in power
generation, transmission and distribution, adding that the federal
government's decision to raise tariffs across various sectors, among other
policies, has plunged Nigerians further into poverty.
Espousing the position of the labour movement on the 50 percent hike in
telephone services, Ajaero said the only solution was for government to halt
the implementation until there was an extensive and exhaustive consultations
with relevant stakeholders.
Ajaero, who spoke last night as guest on the Channels Television programme,
Politics Today, faulted the implementation of privatisation policy, saying
then administration went into it without proper consultations and a clear
understanding of the limitations.
The NLC president said whereas the private investors were expected to
execute the venture through foreign direct investment, most of them relied
on loans from local banks.
He said the action of the private sector power firms resulted in liquidity
crisis in the banks and led to subsequent take over of the power
distribution companies by the lending banks.
Speaking on the challenges of procurement of electricity distribution
accessories, Ajaero said there was need to grow the local content to ensure
availability of the materials at affordable rates.
Ajaero wondered why the Ministry of Power was not paying attention to the
issues of local content in the materials used in the nation's power sector.
He said there used to be meter test in Kafuna, Port Harcourt, and in Oshodi,
Lagos, where mechanical meters were produced.
"Today, the power sector has metamorphosed into various entities and we have
NEMSA and other meters that are produced, how many meters are we producing?
Must we go outside to import? These are some of the challenges facing the
power sector that we need to get right," he said.
Regarding cases of vandalism of power supply cables and other facilities,
Ajaero said there were modern technologies to help to know when electricity
lines are tampered with and to be used in policing the facilities.
He described the 5,000 mega watts often referred to as electricity
generation by the government as very insignificant compared to the level of
power supply needed to support the country's soaring population of over 200
million.
"Nigeria is still at the bottom of countries suffering from power supply
poverty. How can you have more than 200 million people and somebody is
telling about 5,000 mega watts of electricity.
"The indices is about a thousand mega watts to one million people and we are
here trying to beat our chest that we have done it. I think we should sit
down and work, taking a look at the local content and some of the things
that we do handle locally.
"If after 12 years of the privatisation of the Power sector entities and
none of the private firms have deemed it fit to venture into building more
power generation plants, then something is wrong that needs to be to be
looked at by government," he said.
He said Nigeria should be thinking of having a mix of electricity generation
sources such as wind energy, solar, gas turbines and hydro dams with a clear
roadmap on yearly targets to be met.
Ajaero also dwelled on the devastating impact of tariff hikes on ordinary
citizens and called for urgent dialogue between the government and relevant
stakeholders to address the economic strain.
"These tariff increases are pushing the masses further below the poverty
line. A worker earning N70,000 monthly now has to spend over 10 per cent of
their income just on electricity tariffs, not to mention the skyrocketing
cost of housing and transportation. How is that person supposed to survive?"
he said.
The NLC president accused the government of consistently prioritising
corporate profits over the welfare of its citizens.
"The speed at which the government concedes to corporate interests,
approving tariff hikes in just one month, is unacceptable. Yet, it takes
years for them to implement something as basic as a minimum wage increase.
This imbalance is not sustainable," he stated.
He further criticised the government's lack of meaningful consultation
before imposing the increases, labeling it a "clear assault" on the welfare
of Nigerian workers.
"No one is talking with us. They are only talking to us. This kind of
unilateral decision-making is dangerous in a democracy. If you're going to
increase tariffs by 50 per cent, then what incentives are being offered to
ameliorate the impact?
"In some countries, you get free or reduced-cost services at certain times,
but here, there are no such measures. It's simply take it or leave it. This
approach is dragging the masses deeper into poverty," he argued.
He also criticised service providers for prioritising profit over service
quality, asking: "How can they justify charging us more when basic services
like network coverage are still abysmal in many areas? If you can't
guarantee consistent service, why should we pay higher tariffs? Again, it's
the masses who suffer.
"We have rejected these increases outright and are consulting with our
allies to decide on the next steps. A boycott of services is one option
we're seriously considering," Ajaero revealed. This Day.
Gabon's Dollar Bonds Gain As Junta Sets Election for April
Gabon's dollar bonds rallied after the nation's junta announced presidential
elections will take place on April 12, 2025
The election will follow the timeline promised by military leaders after
Brice Oligui Nguema overthrew former President Ali Bongo
The 2023 coup came after disputed elections, with the military citing
irregularities
Gabon's dollar bonds rallied after the nation's junta announced presidential
elections will take place on April 12, 2025, signaling a potential return to
civilian rule. The election will follow the timeline promised by military
leaders after Brice Oligui Nguema overthrew former President Ali Bongo in
August 2023.
Energy Minister Séraphin Akure-Davin confirmed the date, stating voting will
follow existing regulations. No candidates have yet declared their intention
to run. Under the constitution adopted in November 2024, Gabon will shift to
a presidential system, abolishing the prime minister role, with a seven-year
presidential term and a one-time re-election limit.
The 2023 coup came after disputed elections, with the military citing
irregularities. Nguema, then commander of the Republican Guard, became
transitional president.
Daba is Africa's leading investment platform for private and public markets.
Download here
Key Takeaways
Adherence to the junta's electoral timeline and structural changes to
governance, including the new constitution, signal efforts to stabilize
Gabon's political environment. Markets responded positively, with
bondholders optimistic about reduced uncertainty. While the election date
offers a path forward, Gabon's reliance on oil revenues and political
stability remains central to its economic prospects. Military-led African
transitions often face international scrutiny, but Gabon's planned return to
civilian rule could improve investor sentiment and strengthen its global -
Daba Finance.
Africa: Could Trump Really Blow Up the Global Trade System?
London — Trump's trade policy blends aggressive tariffs, legal manoeuvring
and transactional diplomacy. But could he really blow up the global trade
system?
The Trump team make the mistake of thinking about the global economy as a
series of bilateral trade relationships when it is actually a complex and
highly integrated system of connections.
President Donald Trump won his re-election on the promise of fighting an
unprecedented trade war against the rest of the world.
He has proposed a universal tariff on all goods imports to the United States
of between 10-20 per cent, rising to 60 per cent for shipments from China
and even higher in some areas. After winning the election, Trump initially
doubled down further on this rhetoric, threatening a 25 per cent tariff on
goods from Mexico and Canada.
The Trump transition team are divided over these proposals but appear to be
sticking to the idea of some form of universal tariff. Reports suggest
though that they plan to target strategic industries such as defence
manufacturing and metallurgy, medical supplies and pharmaceuticals, and
energy production.
This would still amount to a radical disruption of the global trading
system. It would also lead to retaliatory action from the United States'
larger trading partners and violate the terms of the US-Mexico-Canada
Agreement (USMCA).
America cannot simply 'decouple' from China
Economic and geopolitical competition with China has become an obsession of
the American political elite. The Trump administration first introduced
tariffs on China in 2018, and these were kept by his successor and extended
further in 2024.
One of the reasons that the Trump administration are edging towards the idea
of using universal tariffs is the failure of China-focused tariffs to bring
down the overall US trade deficit in goods, which has exceeded $1 trillion
each year from 2021 to 2024.
The Trump administration's focus on Mexico and Canada reflects the fact that
they, along with China, are by some distance America's major source of goods
imports, each accounting for in excess of $400 billion in 2023.
But the Trump team make the mistake of thinking about the global economy as
a series of bilateral trade relationships when it is actually a complex and
highly integrated system of connections.
The decline and plateauing of the US-China trade relationship since 2018
disguises how supply chains adapted with Chinese components routed into
final line assembly in Southeast Asian states. American industry is itself
embedded in such networked production.
Richard Baldwin and Rebecca Freeman calculate that 'Chinese inputs into all
the inputs that American manufacturers buy from other foreign suppliers...
is almost four times larger than it appears to be' in trade statistics.
In a still highly integrated world economy, China's competitive production
and its dominance of goods exports make it an unavoidable partner -- and its
sluggish domestic economy increases its dependency on its export strength.
For the United States to tackle the rerouting of goods through third
countries to avoid tariffs would require complex rules of origin tests that
would be challenging and expensive to implement.
The imbalance that the Trump administration highlights is certainly real. It
has long been recognised that the United States economy is heavily skewed
towards consumption over production -- and that the opposite is the case for
China.
The gross savings rate - the proportion of national income not spent on
consumption - in China is more than double the level of the US. China's low
consumption and high savings provide the basis for huge investments in
production with the goods then needing to be consumed elsewhere.
This relationship shapes the world economy: the US consumes an enormous
amount of goods, and China provides many of these goods. By 2030, China is
expected to account for an astonishing 45 per cent of all global industrial
production -- an increase from just six per cent a quarter of a century ago.
Trade imbalances on this scale pose a problem for the global economy.
For many years, lonely voices on the left argued that the goal of trade
efficiency - e.g. the plentiful cheap industrial products China offers -
should be balanced against other objectives like supporting jobs and
environmental protection.
But today, the idea that trade should not be 'free' but conditional on the
political choices we make enjoys much wider support. Numerous conservatives
that are hawkish on competition with China now agitate very loudly against
American economic dependency on its supply chains.
While this American turn has raised important questions about supply chain
resilience, the relationship between trade and human rights, and how to
design industrial policies that deliver the outcomes we want, Trump's brand
of 'strongman' nationalism offers no serious answers.
Trump's heterogeneous coalition
The Trump administration would like to lower the price of the dollar to
boost US goods export performance, but the blunt single instrument that they
favour - tariffs - will not bring this about. As David Lubin argues, while
tariffs increase the cost of imported goods in the American market, this in
no way equates with weakening the dollar.
The general strength of the US economy and the importance of its market for
global exporters mean that tariffs will create downward pressure on the
currencies of states that are subject to them. Added to this is the
inflationary effect of tariffs and Trump's expansive fiscal policy - i.e.
his huge tax cuts - which will incline the Federal Reserve to increase
interest rates.
So, rather than a weakened dollar the result would be the opposite: a dollar
with even more buying power. Unless the Trump administration start from an
analysis that the trade deficit is closely related to the combination of two
internal imbalances, the American imbalance towards consumption over
investment and the reverse in China, their policies will simply not work.
To bring about the kind of rebalancing in global trade that the Trump
administration claims to want would require multilateral cooperation -- the
antithesis of 'America first'. It points to thinking holistically about the
global economy and its rules -- addressing not only goods trade but also
services, finance and capital movements.
Some in the Republican Party are asking these questions. The conservative
think tank American Compass has identified financial liberalisation as the
critical source of trade imbalances. Vice President J. D. Vance has even
argued that the role of the dollar as a global reserve currency is a
'massive subsidy to American consumers but a massive tax on American
producers'.
However, any move to greater control of capital movements would put the
Trump administration on a collision course with Wall Street, which seems
unlikely. The Trump camp includes a coterie of far-right-moving billionaires
like Elon Musk who see his authoritarianism as a vehicle for their brand of
economic libertarianism, which conveniently supports subsidies and
government spending when it benefits their interests.
These backers would recoil at the idea of capital controls. Trump has also
threatened huge tariffs on any states that pursue de-dollarisation and his
Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent has confirmed the administration
will maintain the dollar's position as a global reserve currency. A more
moderate proposal is to reach out to Beijing to agree on a plan for dollar
devaluation.
Shahin Vallée suggests Trump could launch a multilateral initiative to
strike a deal on a package of coordinated measures. However, this would
require reducing the US budget deficit -- an effort that becomes much harder
in the context of the administration's plans for huge tax cuts.
The Trumpian method of politics
All of these proposals assume, however, that the Trump administration is
capable of developing policies with some sense of the general interest in
mind. Trump's own statements provide little grounds for anticipating this.
Consider how his team have previously hinted at exploiting ideological
divisions within the European Union. Trump's propensity to link trade
policies with non-trade issues, such as immigration and drug enforcement,
could be applied to European states to offer quid pro quos that seek to
circumvent the EU institutions.
While EU states share a Common External Tariff, Trump may be inclined to
offer unilateral tariff reductions to his far-right co-thinkers in exchange
for deals that benefit his networks and have nothing to do with a trade. As
Viktor Orbán's Hungary is a landlocked state, it could not match any US
tariff concession (given that all goods it received would have to pass
through another EU member state), but he may have something else to offer
team Trump.
In the United States, it is also highly likely that the tariffs would be
riddled with exemptions and opts-outs, providing obvious avenues for
kleptocratic deal-making with corporate lobbyists.
Trump should not be read then as a champion of 'Main Street against Wall
Street'. Or as the head of a political faction aimed at mobilising the
powers of American statecraft to redesign its domestic economy and external
trade relations.
Instead, it might be better to analyse Trumpism - and the ideologically
heterogeneous networks and actors that constitute it - as representing an
oligarchisation in which institutions are captured to secure sectional
advantages for supporters, exchanging political for economic power and vice
versa.
The transactionalism fundamental to this approach to politics seems likely
to carry over into the administration's trade policy with potentially
chaotic and contradictory effects.
Luke Cooper is an Associate Professorial Research Fellow in International
Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science and the
Director of PeaceRep's Ukraine programme. He is the author of Authoritarian
Contagion (Bristol University Press, 2021).Source: International Politics
and Society (IPS), published by the Global and European Policy Unit of the
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Hiroshimastrasse 28, D-10785 Berlin.
IPS UN Bureau
Follow @IPSNewsUNBureau
IPS.
Africa: A Dream Deferred - Why Is Traveling Across Africa So Hard for
Africans?
Bulawayo — Aliko Dangote, Africa's richest man, carries his frustration as
visibly as he carries his passport.
To travel across the continent he calls home, he needs 35 visas--each a
bureaucratic hurdle and a reminder of the barriers to free movement and
trade in Africa.
"As someone who wants to make Africa great, I have to apply for 35 different
visas," Dangote lamented at a recent Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda. His
words echo the larger frustration of a continent grappling with the paradox
of cementing regional integration while battling closed borders.
Nearly a decade after African leaders envisioned a borderless continent, the
dream is largely unfulfilled.
Visa Woes
The 2024 Africa Visa Openness Index, launched recently in Botswana, is
revealing: only four countries--Benin, The Gambia, Rwanda, and
Seychelles--offer visa-free access to all Africans. Ghana has joined the
list after it announced visa-free travel to all Africans in January this
year.
Published by the African Development Bank and the African Union, the
visa-openness index measures how open African countries are to citizens of
other African countries based on whether or not a visa is required before
travel and if it can be issued on arrival. There has been some progress
since the first edition of the report, with several African countries
instituting reforms to simplify the free movement of people across the
continent.
About 17 African countries have improved on their visa openness, while 29
are instituting reforms on the issuance of visas for Africans, the Index
shows. In 28 percent of country-to-country travel scenarios within Africa,
African citizens do not need a visa to cross the border, a marked
improvement over 20% in 2016
However, the cost of inaction is clear. Intra-Africa trade is at a low 15
percent of total trade, compared to 60 percent in Asia and 70 percent in
Europe, according to research by the Economic Commission for Africa. Visa
openness could boost intra-Africa trade and tourism while facilitating
labour mobility and skills transfer and propel Africa to economic growth.
For now, closed borders remain Africa's stop sign to free movement.
Zodwa Mabuza, Principal Regional Integration Officer at the AFDB, noted
during the launch of the 2024 Index on the sidelines of the 2024 Africa
Economic Conference that visa openness was not about permanent migration but
the facilitation of tourism, trade and investments.
"This is the sort of movement that we are promoting, in particular because
we are promoting the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)," Mabuza
said.
Stop In the Name of Crime
Fears of illegal migration, terrorism, and economic disruption keep borders
closed, despite evidence that such fears are often overblown, said Francis
Ikome, Chief Regional Integration and Trade at the Economic Commission for
Africa.
Ikome warned that without free movement of African people across the
continent, AfCFTA is 'dead on arrival'.
"We cannot discuss the concerns of security again, even though I think there
is over-securitization of migration. When we talk about migration, we see
security," said Ikome. "When you are a foreigner and an African moves to the
immigration officer, they see problems even before they look at your
passport. Migrants are job creators; there are a lot of university dons,
accountants and other skills that migrants bring to the table."
Free Passage Paradox
Since the launch of the AfCFTA, a majority of African countries have not
ratified the Free Movement of Persons Protocol launched in 2018 by the
African Union and signed by 33 member states. Only four countries have
ratified the Protocol.
Migration researcher Alan Hirsch highlighted that some richer African
countries are more protective of their borders and several of the most open
countries are island states or poor countries that do not expect immigration
or can control it more easily. He said trust is needed between countries,
which takes time and effort.
"The reluctance of some countries is related to their concerns about the
quality of documentation and systems in some countries, fears relating to
security issues as there are terrorist organisations in some parts of
Africa, and fears that the visitors are economic migrants in disguise and
will not leave," Hirsch told IPS.
"There is a lot of progress in the regional communities in Africa. Borders
are opening frequently on a bilateral or multilateral basis, as the visa
openness index shows," said Hirsch, an Emeritus Professor at The Nelson
Mandela School of Public Governance at the University of Cape Town.
Sabelo Mbokazi, Head of Employment, Labour and Migration at the African
Union Commission, suggests that countries that promote free movement must be
incentivised to do better.
"Who are we serving with all these visa restrictions? Are we serving the
people or the politics of the day? Are we serving populations or our
popularity? Are we serving the people around the continent or for profit?
These are the paradoxes we see in Africa," he said, citing that
intra-African migration was at 80 percent, with 20 percent going to Europe
or America but Europeans who came to Africa moved more easily than Africans.
That some Africans do not have passports and some are nomads, visa-free
travel could be a logistical nightmare that many countries would do without.
Africa has toyed with the concept of an African passport, which was launched
in 2016. The passport has been issued only to African heads of state,
foreign ministers and diplomats accredited by the AU.
"Regional passports, such as the ECOWAS passport for the large West African
community and the EAC passport for the growing East African community, were
developed in recent times and are doing very well. It was probably too soon
for an all-African passport, " Hirsch said.
In analysis, stopping African travellers in their tracks is counter to
regional integration aspirations, argues Joy Kategekwa, Director, Regional
Integration Coordination Office, at the AfDB.
"The paradox of integration in Africa is we talk about pan-Africanism; we
have a passion for it but we keep Africans closed out of it behind the
visa."
Tied to the free movement of persons has been the poor implementation of the
Yamoussoukro Decision to liberalize air transport. Air connectivity in
Africa is a nightmare.
Hirsch is optimistic that Africa can boost its development through trade and
migration, admitting that opening African skies takes time.
"In addition to the African 'free skies' initiative and the free movement of
persons protocol, there is the AfCFTA," he said. "All three initiatives were
agreed to in 2018. The AfCFTA is making some progress and could help pave
the way for the other two initiatives."
The stakes are high. The AfCFTA, meant to unite 1.3 billion people under a
single market, risks failure. With closed borders and skies, a visa-free
Africa is a dream deferred.- IPS.
Zambia's Copper Output Rises 12 Percent in 2024 Despite Drought
Zambia's copper production increased by 12% in 2024, reaching around 820,670
metric tons, up from 732,580 tons in 2023, according to Mines and Minerals
Development Minister Paul Kabuswe. The recovery comes despite a severe
drought that disrupted hydroelectric power generation, forcing major miners
to import electricity to maintain operations.
Key contributors to the boost include Barrick Gold's Lumwana mine, Vedanta
Resources' Konkola Copper Mines (KCM), and Mopani Copper Mines, recently
acquired by UAE-based International Resources Holding. Following a
protracted ownership dispute, Vedanta plans to invest $1.3 billion to revive
KCM.
Zambia, Africa's second-largest copper producer after the Democratic
Republic of Congo, relies on copper for over 70% of export earnings. The
government aims to triple annual production to 3 million tons within the
next decade to drive economic growth.
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Key Takeaways
Zambia's mining sector is receiving significant foreign investment. Canadian
firms Barrick and First Quantum Minerals are ramping up production, while
KoBold Metals, backed by U.S. investors, plans a $2 billion copper project.
The government's goal of reaching 3 million tons annually hinges on
infrastructure improvements, stable energy supply, and continued foreign
investment. Copper remains critical for Zambia's economy as global demand
for the metal, driven by renewable energy and electric vehicles, surges.
Efforts to stabilize mining operations and resolve disputes, like the KCM
ownership battle, signal Zambia's commitment to attracting investors and
securing its position as a key player in the global copper market. - Daba
Finance.
Namibia: Govt Delays Household Electrification Target By 10 Years
NAMIBIA has pushed back its goal of electrifying 432 000 households from
2030 to 2040 due to financial and capacity challenges.
The revision follows findings from the 2022 Geospatial Least-Cost
Electrification Plan (GLCEP) study, which revealed that the original target
was unachievable within the set timeline.
In 2022, the World Bank, which supported the National Electrification
Policy, highlighted the scale of the electrification challenge.
The GLCEP study indicated that approximately 432 000 existing and future
households need electricity to achieve universal access by 2030.
Of those, about 80% would be connected through grid expansion, and 20% via
off-grid solutions.
However the World Bank has said the programme's estimated cost of N$13.4
billion, combined with capacity limitations and financial constraints, made
the 2030 goal unfeasible.
"Namibia's electrification strategy underscores inclusivity. By 2040, we aim
to provide electricity to 432 000 households through a balanced approach of
grid and off-grid solutions.
"This will bridge energy access gaps, particularly in underserved rural
areas, ensuring that no Namibian is left behind in this energy transition,"
minister of mines and energy Tom Alweendo has previously said.
He has now set the revised deadline for 2040.
Speaking at the recent International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena)
assembly, Alweendo reiterated Namibia's commitment to clean energy and
inclusive electrification.
"Namibia is steadfast in its commitment to achieving a clean energy
transition. Guided by our national energy policy national renewable energy
policy, and the integrated resource plan, we are pursuing ambitious goals to
enhance energy security, universal access and regional collaboration," he
said.
Regarding the country's renewable energy ambitions, Alweendo highlighted
that ongoing projects reflect this commitment, as Namibia aims to harness
the potential of solar, wind and biomass for a diversified energy mix.
"Our ongoing projects reflect this commitment, as Namibia aims to achieve
70% renewable energy supply by 2030. Several key initiatives are nearing
completion and new projects will be launched in early 2025.
"These efforts highlight our determination to harness the potential of
solar, wind and biomass for a diversified energy mix," he said.
Alweendo also emphasised Namibia's growing role in the green hydrogen
sector.
"This initiative will not only drive economic growth, but also contribute to
global decarbonisation efforts," he said.
Despite the progress made, Alweendo acknowledged that challenges persist,
particularly around financing and the need for international cooperation.
"The global energy transition requires innovative financing mechanisms and
international cooperation. Namibia appreciates Irena's support in fostering
collaboration and capacity-building among its members."- Namibian.
Somalia: Mogadishu Airport Turmoil - Flight Delays Amid Dispute Over New
Airline Fees
Mogadishu, Somalia — Passengers at Mogadishu's Aden Adde International
Airport endured prolonged delays Monday, as flights were grounded amid a
fierce dispute over newly imposed charges by private airlines. The situation
escalated, leaving travelers stranded and frustrated.
Airlines operating out of Mogadishu accused the airport authorities of
suddenly imposing additional fees, which they argued were not part of their
prior agreements. This led to a temporary halt in services as airlines
protested the charges, disrupting both local and international travel plans.
Ahmed Macalin Hassan, the Director-General of the Somali Civil Aviation
Authority (SCAA), countered these claims, asserting that there was no
financial contention between the airlines and the aviation authority. He
redirected the blame towards broader travel condition complaints from the
public, suggesting that these were the true reasons behind the delays.
After hours of negotiations, an agreement was reached, allowing flights to
resume. However, the incident highlighted deeper issues within Somalia's
aviation sector, including the treatment of passengers. Several airlines
faced public backlash for what was described as poor handling of passengers
during the crisis, with complaints officially lodged with airport
management.
The situation at Mogadishu Airport is more than just a logistical headache;
it's a critical issue for many in Somalia's southern and central regions
where air travel is not just a convenience but a necessity. The persistent
threat of attacks by the militant group Al-Shabaab makes road travel
perilous, underscoring the importance of reliable air services in the
region.
This event has sparked a call for better communication and transparency
between airport authorities and airlines to prevent such disruptions in the
future, emphasizing the need for solutions that address both security and
service quality in Somalia's volatile environment.
- Shabelle.
Nigeria's Public Debt Rises By N8.02trn to N142.3trn in Q3 2024
Nigeria's total public debt rose to N142.3 trillion as of September 30,
2024, representing an increase of 5.97% (N8.02 trillion) compared to N134.3
trillion in June 2024.
This is according to the latest data released by the Debt Management Office
(DMO) on Tuesday.
Daily Trust observed that this increase reflects the combined effects of
rising domestic borrowing and the impact of exchange rate depreciation on
external debt when converted to naira terms.
Surge driven by currency depreciation .
Data from the DMO showed that Nigeria's external debt in dollar terms grew
marginally by 0.29%, from $42.90 billion in June to $43.03 billion in
September.
However, the naira equivalent of external debt surged significantly by
9.22%; rising from N63.07 trillion to N68.89 trillion during the same
period.
The increase was largely driven by the naira's depreciation against the US
dollar, as the exchange rate weakened from N1,470.19/$ in June to
N1,601.03/$ by the end of September.
However, Domestic debt recorded mixed performance, declining by 5.34% in
dollar terms from $48.45 billion in June to $45.87 billion in September. In
naira terms, however, domestic debt increased by 3.10%, from N71.22 trillion
to N73.43 trillion.
The federal government accounted for the bulk of domestic debt, which rose
from N66.96 trillion in June to N69.22 trillion by September. In contrast,
domestic debt owed by states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT)
declined slightly, from N4.27 trillion to N4.21 trillion.
Daily Trust.
Somalia and Egypt Strengthen Ties With Strategic Partnership Agreement
Cairo — Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Egyptian President Abdel
Fattah El-Sisi met at the Al-Ittihadiya Palace on Thursday, signaling a new
era in bilateral relations with the signing of a strategic partnership
agreement.
The leaders agreed to elevate their cooperation to a strategic alliance,
focusing on strengthening historical bonds and expanding collaboration in
education, justice, politics, security, trade, and economic development.
In education, Al-Azhar University in Egypt will offer more scholarships and
training to Somali students and professionals, aiming to enhance skills and
knowledge exchange.
The agreement also includes commitments to bolster cooperation in justice
and security sectors. Egypt pledged continued support for Somalia in its
fight against terrorism, emphasizing its solidarity with the Somali
government and its people.
A significant aspect of the meeting was the signing of an accord by the
foreign ministers of both nations, which exempts holders of Somali
diplomatic passports from visa requirements when traveling to Egypt. This
policy is expected to streamline diplomatic interactions and foster closer
ties by removing travel barriers.
Both presidents highlighted the strategic partnership's role in advancing
their countries' interests, urging the joint committees to swiftly implement
the agreed-upon objectives, thereby deepening the mutual relationship
between Somalia and Egypt.
Shabelle.
Nigeria: Okonjo-Iweala Cautions WTO Members Against Tit-for-Tat Tariffs
Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,
has cautioned nations against escalating tariff conflicts, warning that a
retaliatory trade war could have "catastrophic" consequences for the global
economy.
Speaking on Thursday at a panel discussion during the World Economic Forum
in Davos, Switzerland, Mrs Okonjo-Iweala urged calm amidst rising tensions
following threats of tariffs by US President Donald Trump against China, the
European Union, Mexico and Canada.
"Please let's not hyperventilate. I know we are here to discuss tariffs.
I've been saying to everybody: could we chill, also? I just sense a lot of
hyperventilation," she said, emphasising the need for measured responses.
She drew parallels to the economic turmoil caused by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff
Act of 1930 during the Great Depression which led to widespread retaliation
and deepened the global crisis.
Okonjo-Iweala advised WTO member nations to explore alternative avenues for
dispute resolution rather than resorting to retaliatory measures. "Even if a
tariff is levied, please keep calm, don't wake up and without the necessary
groundwork levy your own," she said.
The WTO chief warned that a full-scale trade war, with escalating tariffs of
25% to 60%, could result in double-digit global GDP losses.
"If we have tit-for-tat retaliation, whether it's 25 per cent tariffs, 60
per cent, and we go to where we were in the 1930s, we are going to see
double-digit global GDP losses, double-digit. That's catastrophic," she
said. Vanguard.
Bank of Japan raises rates to highest in 17 years
Japan's central bank has increased the cost of borrowing to its highest
level in 17 years after consumer price rises accelerated in December.
The move by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise its short-term policy rate to
"around 0.5 per cent" comes just hours after the latest economic data showed
prices rose last month at the fastest pace in 16 months.
The BOJ's last interest rate hike in July, along with a weak jobs report
from the US, caught investors around the world by surprise, which triggered
a stock market selloff.
The bank's governor, Kazuo Ueda, signalled this latest rate hike in advance
in a bid to avoid another market shock.
According to official figures released on Friday, core consumer prices in
Japan increased by 3% in December from a year earlier.
The decision marks the BOJ's first rate hike since July and came just days
after Donald Trump returned to the White House.
During the election campaign Trump threatened to impose tariffs on all
imports into the US, which could have an impact on exporting countries like
Japan.
By raising rates now the bank will have more scope to cut rates in the
future if it needs to boost the economy.
The move highlights the central bank's plans to steadily increase rates to
around 1% - a level seen as neither boosting or slowing the economy.
The BOJ signalled that interest rates will continue to rise from ultra-low
levels.
Neil Newman, the head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan said: "rates will
continue to rise as wages increase, inflation remains above 2% and there is
some growth in the economy."
"We look for another 25-basis point hike in six months," said Stefan
Angrick, a Japan economist at Moody's Analytics.
Last year, the BOJ raised the cost of borrowing for the first time since
2007 after rates had been kept down for years as the country struggled with
stagnant price growth.
That hike meant that there were no longer any countries left with negative
interest rates.
When negative rates are in force people have to pay to deposit money in a
bank. They have been used by several countries as a way of encouraging
people to spend their money rather than putting it in a bank.-BBC
US doesn't need Canadian energy or cars, says Trump
President Donald Trump has said the US does not need Canadian energy,
vehicles or lumber as he spoke to global business leaders at the World
Economic Forum.
Trump also reiterated his threat to impose tariffs on the country, saying it
can be avoided if the neighbouring nation chose to "become a state" of the
US.
"You can always become a state, and if you're a state, we won't have a
deficit. We won't have to tariff you," he said to gasps in the hall in
Davos.
Trump has threatened to impose up to 25% tariffs on Canadian imports,
possibly by 1 February.
The renewed threat of tariffs has been met with deep unease by the
trade-dependent Canada.
But it has also said it will consider significant countermeasures, including
a "dollar-for-dollar" response if the Trump administration follows through.
Roughly 75% of Canada's exports head south. In contrast, Canada accounts for
a much smaller 17% of US exports, though it is the second largest US trading
partner, behind Mexico.
Trump in his remarks on Thursday said Canada had been "very tough to deal
with over the years".
"We don't need them to make our cars, we make a lot of them, we don't need
their lumber because we have our own forests... we don't need their oil and
gas, we have more than anybody," he told forum attendees via video link from
Washington DC.
Trump reiterated the assertion that the US has a trade deficit with Canada
of between $200bn and $250bn. It's not clear where he got that figure.
The trade deficit with Canada - expected to be $45bn in 2024 - is mostly
driven by US energy demands.
The North American auto industry also has highly integrated supply chains.
Auto parts can cross the borders between the US and Mexico and Canada
multiple time before a vehicle is finally assembled.
Trump has also tied the tariffs to border security, saying it will be
imposed unless Canada increases security at the shared border.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly said that everything
is on the table in response if the tariffs are imposed.
That includes a tax or embargo on energy exports to the US, though some of
Canada's provincial leaders disagree with that response.
On Thursday, Trudeau told reporters that Canada's goal is to avoid US
tariffs altogether but it will step up its response "gradually" to seek the
quick removal of levies if they are imposed.
Canada is also pitching itself as a reliable trading partner and a secure
source to the US for energy and critical minerals as it lobbies American
lawmakers in a bid to avoid the tariffs.
Canada offers to help Trump as it scrambles to avert tariff war
Trudeau says 'not a snowball's chance in hell' Canada will join US
Economists suggest the US depends on Canadian products for energy security.
In 2024, Canadian energy exports came to almost $170bn (C$244bn), according
to a recent analysis by TD Bank economists.
Trump also said on Thursday that businesses should make their products in
the US if they want to avoid tariffs.
Tariffs are a central part of Trump's economic vision - he sees them as a
way of growing the US economy, protecting jobs and raising tax revenue.
The new president has ordered federal officials to review US trade
relationships for any unfair practices by 1 April.-BBC
Trump told not to put massive tariffs on UK
The government is set to make the case to Donald Trump's new administration
that there is no need for huge tariffs on UK exports to the US, the business
secretary has said.
Jonathan Reynolds told the BBC he would argue that the US has no goods trade
deficit with the UK, which occurs when a country imports more than it
exports.
The move comes after President Trump doubled down on his threat to impose
big tariffs on countries wanting to sell products and services in the US.
"I think we've got an argument to engage with," Reynolds said.
The prospect of higher taxes being introduced on imports to the US is
concerning many world leaders because it will make it more expensive for
companies to sell goods in the world's largest economy.
But tariffs are a central part of Trump's economic vision - he sees them as
a way of growing the US economy, protecting jobs and raising tax revenue -
and has already said he is considering imposing a 10% tariff on imports of
Chinese-made goods as soon as February, and threatened ones of 25% on Canada
and Mexico.
The US President told global executives at the World Economic Forum this
week that they could either produce their goods in the US or face widespread
tariffs worth hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars.
But Reynolds said when it comes to manufactured goods, the US did not have a
trade deficit with the UK.
"We know this is something that not just President Trump, but the whole of
his administration takes very seriously," he said.
"We've obviously got a services-based economy. The US does not have that
deficit with us so if that's the logic of that position, I think we've got
an argument to engage with."
Trump considers 10% tariff on China from February
Trump urges Opec countries to slash oil prices
Separately, the business secretary said the UK had left open the possibility
of following EU rules for food and farm products in order to return to
frictionless access to European markets.
Reynolds said such an agreement - which lowers all trade barriers in return
for mirroring EU rules and standards - would not cross the government's red
lines.
The comments came after EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic told the BBC a
new agreement, including so-called dynamic alignment on standards, is
possible alongside other areas of pan-European co-operation on customs.
Reynolds met Sefcovic at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday and
said he thanked his EU counterpart for his "incredibly positive" and
"helpful" comments.
Reynolds added that Sefcovic's tone was in keeping with what the government
had already said about a "twin- track strategy" on trade.
"We can improve the terms of trade with the EU in a way which doesn't
revisit customs unions or single markets or the arguments of Brexit, and we
can do that whilst pursuing closer trade links around the world," Reynolds
said.
Labour fought last year's UK general election with a manifesto pledge to
lower Brexit-related barriers and red tape for the export of food and farm
products to the European Union.
The question has always been how deep such an agreement might be. It could
be settled in the coming weeks, though firm decisions have not yet been
made.
On Thursday the EU suggested to the BBC that complete eradication of
barriers in the sector would be possible if the UK followed relevant EU
rules and standards as they change, a process known as "dynamic alignment".
Reynolds said that both ideas floated by Sefcovic - a fully fledged
veterinary agreement with dynamic alignment and a pan-European customs plan
- did not break the government's red lines.
But the Conservatives have voiced anger at reports of a potential new deal
on UK-EU trade, with shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel telling MPs
that the government was "bending the knee to the EU".
"These latest reports that the government might shackle us to the European
Union are deeply concerning, and once again make clear that Keir Starmer and
his chums are all too happy to put their ideology ahead of our national
interest, no matter the cost," she said.
The Liberal Democrats have said the government is not doing enough to smooth
trade with the EU.
Party leader Sir Ed Davey told the Commons: "It is time for a proper UK-EU
customs arrangement so we can strengthen our negotiations with Donald Trump,
cut the red tape on our businesses and grow the economy."-BBC
Invest Wisely!
Bulls n Bears
Cellphone: +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557
Email: <mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com>
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INVESTORS DIARY 2025
Company
Event
Venue
Date & Time
Companies under Cautionary
CBZH
GetBucks
EcoCash
Padenga
Econet
RTG
Fidelity
TSL
FMHL
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw>
DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from s believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and d from third parties.
(c) 2025 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:bulls at bullszimbabwe.com> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27 79 993
5557 | +263 71 944 1674
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