Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 01 Jul 2025

Wed Jul 2 08:54:52 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 01 Jul 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE register gains in new month...

ZSE registered gains in the new month as the All-Share Index gained 0.62% to
close at 198.46pts while, the Blue-Chip Index edged up 0.02% to 194.17pts.
The Agriculture Index rose 1.72% to 162.23pts while, the Mid Cap Index added
2.55% to 237.54pts. Sugar refiner Star Africa headllined the gainers of the
day on a 37.50% jump to end pegged at $0.0550 with TSL Limited trailing on a
13.923 surge to $2.5000. Ecocash Holdi11gs climbed 7.90% to close at $0.1349
while, Nampak advanced 5.73% to $0.9000. Proplastics Limited capped the top
five gainers of the day on a 2.36% increase to finish at $1.2999. Partially
weighing down the market was OKZIM that fell 2.94% to end pegged at $0.2900.
Telecoms giant Econet lost 0.46% to $3.8798 while, Zimre Holdings retreated
0.18% to $0.2595'. FML capped the top five worst performers of the day on a
negligible 0.01% loss to settle at $3.9995 .

Activity aggregates faltered in the session as volumes traded plummeted
98.53% to 1.lOm shares while, turnover pllunged 74.29% to $5.83m. The trio
of Delta, OIKZIM and Econet drove the volume aggregate in the session as
they claimed 33.11%, 30.95%, and 14.15% respectively. Delta and Econet
claimed a combined 92.80% of the total value traded. Morgan & Co ETF rose
0.02% to land at $2..1500 as 100 units were traded in the session. In the
REIT category, the Tigere REIT added 11.01% to $1.3354 as 1,741 units
exchanged hands in the session while, the Revitus REIT improved by 0.36% to
$0.6900 as 4 units were traded..-efesec

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

Rand Holds Steady Before PMI, Car Sales Figures

South Africa's rand found a quiet footing in early trading on Tuesday,
exhibiting stability as local investors braced themselves for the release of
crucial economic indicators: the purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey for
the manufacturing sector and fresh vehicle sales data.

At 0557 GMT, the rand was trading at 17.69 against the dollar, hovering just
a whisker away from its closing rate on Monday.

The closely watched Absa PMI for June is slated for release at 0900 GMT.
This survey promises to shed valuable light on the health and conditions of
the manufacturing sector, which is the backbone of Africa's most
industrialised economy. Investec economist Lara Hodes, in a recent research
note, shared her expectation that the manufacturing index would likely "have
remained in contractionary territory in June."

She attributed this anticipated stagnation to "a lacklustre domestic economy
which continues to face a number of structural challenges, while globally
manufacturing conditions remain subdued weighing on export potential."

The South African rand remained steady on Wednesday as investors processed
the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which offered some relief to
unsettled markets.

Local investors will then shift their attention to the vehicle sales data
for June, expected around 1200 GMT. This figure will offer a timely snapshot
of consumer demand, particularly for significant purchases like cars.
Economists at Nedbank are forecasting an annual growth in car sales, largely
driven by last year's low comparative base, coupled with easing financial
conditions stemming from recent interest rate cuts, lower debt service
costs, and generally subdued prices.

Meanwhile, the dollar itself remained largely flat against a basket of
international currencies. This pause in its movement is attributed to
heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff
policies, as a July 9 deadline looms large. Tariff rates ranging from 10% to
50%, originally announced on April 2, are poised to take effect next week
following a a 90-day pause implemented by Trump, unless new bilateral trade
deals are successfully reached.

In the bond market, South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond showed a
slight improvement in early deals, with its yield gently falling 3 basis
points to 9.935%.

Nigeria

Naira Gains Against Dollar in Official Market

The naira brought a welcome boost to the official foreign exchange market on
Monday, appreciating significantly against the dollar to kick off the week
on a positive note.

According to the latest exchange data from the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN), the naira saw a notable shift, strengthening to N1,529.71 per dollar
on Monday. This marks a gain of N9.53 when compared to the N1,539.24 it
traded for just last Friday.

Persistent Dollar Shortage Pushes Naira Further Down in Parallel Market

However, the story was different on the black market. There, the nation's
currency held steady at N1,570 per dollar on Monday, mirroring the exchange
rate observed at the close of last week's trading.

This encouraging development in the official market comes even as Nigeria's
external reserves have experienced a dip, shedding $3.5 billion within the
first half of 2025. Specifically, the reserves stood at $37.369 billion on
June 26, 2025, down from $40.877 billion at the close of last year.

It's worth noting that last Friday saw a contrasting performance: the naira
had dropped in the official foreign exchange market but had managed to
appreciate in the parallel market.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar pares losses against euro and Swiss franc after better-than-expected
US jobs data

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained ground against major currencies including
the yen and the Swiss franc on Tuesday after data showed a
better-than-expected increase in labor market demand, indicating the Federal
Reserve will likely take its time to cut interest rates.

The Republican-controlled U.S. Senate passed President Donald Trump's tax
and spending bill, approving a massive package that would enshrine many of
his top priorities into law and add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The
bill will move to the House for final approval.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell had reiterated that the central bank
plans to wait for more data before it starts monetary policy easing, but he
did not rule out a July cut. Powell spoke at a central banking conference in
Portugal.

The dollar pared losses against the Japanese yen and against the Swiss franc
after Labor Department data showed job openings rose 374,000 to 7.769
million in May. It pared losses further against the yen and extended gains
against the franc after the U.S. Senate cleared the spending bill.

The dollar weakened 0.29% to 143.58 against the yen and was down 0.16% to
0.79175 versus the Swiss franc, compared with a drop of 0.46% and 0.28%
respectively before the data.

"It was the worst first half of the year for the U.S. dollar index since
1973 with a lot of that weakness being driven by concerns about trade policy
and concerns about a slowing economy," said Matthew Weller, global head of
market research at StoneX. "But I think on a very short-term basis we might
be seeing the market get a little bit stretched here and I think there might
be a case for a U.S. dollar bounce as we move through July."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of
currencies including the yen and the euro, reversed earlier gains and was
down 0.08% at 96.682 after being down 0.05% to 96.71.

U.S. Treasury yields advanced after the job openings data. The yield on
benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.3 basis points to 4.25%.

"Two or three iterations of concern around the Fed or potential policy from
the Fed all weigh against the dollar," said Marvin Loh, senior global market
strategist at State Street in Boston. "If the Fed cuts, that closes interest
rate differentials ... We've seen July expectations for a cut get a little
more aggressive at 20%; it was 0% just a couple of weeks ago. It's certainly
firming they're going to cut in September and there's a bit of a change in
thesis."

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer cleared the first hurdle in his quest to
reform the welfare system, defeating an attempt by lawmakers opposed to the
proposed law to halt its progress. The proposed reforms are designed to
reduce the cost of Britain's growing welfare bill of 65 billion pounds,
which the government has described as economically indefensible and morally
wrong.

The euro was down 0.13% at $1.18020 after being up 0.05% earlier in the day.

The pound sterling reversed earlier declines and rose following the vote. It
was last up 0.07% to $1.374 against the dollar, on track for two straight
sessions of gains.

The dollar strengthened 0.08% to 7.162 versus the offshore Chinese yuan.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold price climbs over 1% on trade uncertainty

Gold prices climbed by more than 1% on Tuesday, as continued weakness in the
US dollar and economic uncertainty surrounding global trade ignited demand
for the safe-haven metal.

Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3,340.90 per ounce by noon ET, after hitting a
weekly high of $3,357.85. US gold futures shot up 1.4% to $3,353.80 per
ounce in New York.

Meanwhile, the dollar softened as US President Donald Trump's massive tax
cut and spending bill stoked fiscal worries, which, combined with concern
over trade deals, weighed on market sentiment.

Rhona O'Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA & Asia at StoneX, said the
rally in gold is a function of "bargain hunting, dollar weakness (and)
continued uncertainty" about the July 9 tariff deadline set by Trump.

Gold is likely to average $3,000/oz for the fourth quarter and possibly even
lower by year-end, O'Connell added.

US debt, tariff worries

Earlier in the day, US Senate Republicans were struggling to pass Trump's
sweeping tax and spending bill amid concerns that the legislation would add
about $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt pile.

On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Monday that
countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs before July 9, when
Trump's 90-day pause on 'Liberation Day' tariffs expires.

Investors are also watching out for US ADP employment data due on Wednesday,
and Thursday's payrolls data for cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate
policy path.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, addressing a forum in Portugal, said the US economy
"was in a pretty good position," adding that inflation was behaving as
expected and hoped, excluding the tariffs.

Markets are currently expecting two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this
year, starting in September, according to Reuters.

A lower interest rate, coupled with the ongoing trade concerns, would bode
well for gold. So far this year, the precious metal has risen by nearly 27%.

(With files from Reuters)

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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