Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 23 Jul 2025

Thu Jul 24 09:04:37 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 23 Jul 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE falters in mid-week session...

ZSE faltered in mid-week session as losses in selected heavies weighed on the market. The All-Share Index fell 2.03% to 194.83pts while, the Blue-Chip Index retreated 2.74% to 186.88pts. Conversely, the Agriculture Index added 0.21% to 162.23pts while, the Mid Cap Index climbed up 1.08% to 246.86pts. Beverages manufacturer Delta headlined the losers of the day having lost 7.51% to close at a VWAP of $12.7121 having traded an intraday low of $11.1865 as BAT followed on a 6.24% loss to $75.0000. TSL Limited parred off 1.98% to land at $2.7900 while, TNCI Holdings shed 1.27% to $0.1229. Nampak Zimbabwe capped the top five losers of the day on a 1.02% decline to close at $0.9700. Partially mitigating today's losses was sugar refiner Star Africa that garnered 13.96% to end pegged at $0.0522 with Hippo Valley trailing behind on a 12.52% uplift to close at $5.9522. ART Holdings ticked up 5.31% to $0.1685 while, telecoms giant Econet edged up 1.46% to $4.0800. SeedCo Limited completed the top five gainers of the day on a 1.29% increase to settle at $3.0522.

Activity aggregates were depressed in the session as turnover dipped 44.43% to $15.28m while, volumes traded plummeted 92.73% to 3.58m shares. The top volume drivers of the day were Proplastics (26.57%), Econet (18.48%), Delta (16.41%) and TSL (10.98%). The duo of Delta and Econet drove the value aggregate as they claimed 46.82% and 17.68% apiece. Datvest MCS ETF was stable at $0.0300 as 100 units were traded while, Morgan & Co Made in Zim fell 1.64% to $0.0480 as 600 units exchanged hands. The Tigere REIT added 0.36% to $1.4003 as 544,529 units were traded in the session.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand gains as inflation rises modestly, stocks hit new peak

(Reuters) - The South African rand strengthened on Wednesday as inflation rose only modestly, keeping the central bank on track to continue cutting interest rates, while the local stock market scaled a new record high.

At 1445 GMT, the rand traded at 17.5550 against the U.S. dollar , up about 0.2% on Tuesday's closing level.

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South African inflation rose to 3.0% year on year in June from 2.8% in May (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab, in line with forecasts, which analysts said left room for the central bank to ease policy further. The bank holds a rate-setting meeting next week.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's All-Share Index (.JALSH), opens new tab crossed 100,000 points for the first time, last trading up 0.8%.

Stephan Erasmus, investment analyst at Anchor Capital, said the bourse's strong performance so far this year - the All-Share Index is up roughly 19% - had been driven by a few standout performers, including mining and telecoms stocks, and heavyweight Naspers (NPNJn.J), opens new tab.

Kevin Lings, chief economist at Stanlib, said the exchange had been lifted by a stronger gold price, the fact that some asset managers thought local valuations looked cheap compared to U.S. equities, and a view held by some that the economy was not in as bad shape as official data suggests.

Statistics agency data last month showed Africa's most industrialised economy stagnated in the first quarter, eking out quarter-on-quarter growth of 0.1%.

But the outgoing chief executive of local bank Capitec has since said he thought economic activity in the informal sector was underestimated, in comments that Lings said had resonated with some fund managers.

Later on Wednesday lawmakers are expected to pass the Appropriation Bill, which allocates funds to government departments and entities, bringing to an end months of disputes between coalition partners over the budget.

The benchmark 2035 government bond gained slightly, with the yield down 3.5 basis points to 9.81%.

Nigeria

Naira Falls against US Dollar, Official, Black Market Rates ‘Tango’

The naira fell against the dollar at the Nigerian foreign exchange market (NFEM), reflecting a moderate pressure from eligible corporate FX demand.

According to CBN update, the Naira dipped by 38 kobo to N1535.61 per dollar to remained relatively liquid and stable amid a modest uptick in FX demand.

The pressure on the local currency has eased significantly and intraday daily movement has been relatively limited, reflecting market confidence that up streaming greenback from Nigerian market will not be difficult.

Data from the CBN revealed that the naira traded within a narrow band of ₦1,530.00 to ₦1,537.00 per U.S. dollar before closing at ₦1,535.62.

While the gap between intraday high and low spot rates signal potential FX demand surge, analysts refuse to shift position that the CBN will watch that exchange rate does not worsen sharply.

A slew of investment banking analysts maintain positive expectation with projections showing that exchange rate would remain between N1500 and N1600 in 2025.

Their projections were anchored on CBN maintaining FX interventions stance in the absence of significant shock outside the control of the monetary authority.

At the parallel market, exchange rate pulled back to N1535 on slight demand surge from unofficial FX users. At the current rate, the exchange rates gap between official and parallel market nearly match.

With growing foreign reserves, the CBN has strong buffer to keep the naira stable, analyst said. Latest data update revealed that Nigeria’s gross external reserves stood at approximately $38.37 billion, reflecting a daily increase of $121.12 million.

The nation’s foreign reserves rising fast despite bearish conditions in the global commodities market.

For the fourth consecutive sessions on Wednesday, global oil prices fell as investors assessed the U.S. tariff deal with Japan ahead of talks between EU and U.S.

Brent crude shed 15 cents to $68.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate slipped16 cents to $65.15. Similarly, gold prices recede by over 1%, a U.S.-Japan trade deal eased market uncertainty.

Spot gold dipped by 1.22% to $3,387.86 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures closed 1.27% lower at $3,395.80. AIICO Capital Limited said the market is expected to react to the outcome of the trade talk between the EU and U.S. officials.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Australian Dollar extends winning streak following improved PMI data

The Australian Dollar (AUD) advances against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, extending its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The AUD/USD pair is reaching fresh eight-month highs above 0.6600 following the release of Australia's preliminary Judo Bank Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. The focus shifts toward the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor's speech.

Judo Bank and S&P Global showed that Australia’s Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July versus 51.6 prior, reaching the highest level since April 2022 and marking the tenth consecutive month of expansion.

Australian Services PMI climbed to 53.8 in July from the previous reading of 51.8, reaching its fastest pace in 16 months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.6 in July versus 50.6 prior. New orders for manufactured goods rebounded, driving the strongest overall growth in new business in more than three years.

The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair also receives support from improving market sentiment, driven by the latest trade developments. The Financial Times reported that the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) are closing in on a deal that would impose 15% tariffs on EU goods imported into the US.

Australian Dollar gains ground as US Dollar declines amid risk-on mood

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is continuing to lose ground and trading around 97.10 at the time of writing. Investors will likely observe the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for July later on Thursday.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair is likely to be announced in December or January. Bessent emphasized that there is “no rush” to select a successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that the nominee could come from current board members or the heads of the district banks, according to Bloomberg.

US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a major tariff deal with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports. Additionally, talks between the United States (US) and China are gaining momentum ahead of the August 12 deadline.

President Trump announced a trade deal with Japan that includes a 15% tariff on Japanese exports to the US. As part of the agreement, Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets to key American products.

Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna has formally accused the Fed Chair Powell of committing perjury on two separate occasions, both stemming from discussions about the Fed's long-scheduled renovations to its head offices in Washington, DC.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that the US central bank should not lower interest rates "for some time" since the effects of Trump administration tariffs are starting to show up in consumer prices. Kugler added that restrictive monetary policy is essential to keep inflationary psychology in line.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week that expecting two rate cuts this year is a "reasonable" outlook, while warning against waiting too long. Daly added that rates would eventually settle at 3% or higher, exceeding the pre-pandemic neutral rate.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes that the US central bank should reduce its interest rate target at the July meeting, citing mounting economic risks. Waller added that delaying cuts runs the risk of needing more aggressive action later.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated unequivocally in a televised interview, “That’s a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in. Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they’re going to start paying the tariffs on August 1.”

The latest Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Meeting Minutes indicated that the board agreed further rate cuts were warranted over time, with attention centered on timing and extent of easing. The majority believed it was best to await confirmation of an inflation slowdown before easing. Most members felt cutting rates three times in four meetings would not be "cautious and gradual.”

Westpac reports that its Leading Index continues to reflect weakening momentum. The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index eased to 0.03% in June, down from 0.11% in May. The slowdown is primarily driven by softer commodity prices, waning sentiment, and reduced hours worked.

Australian Dollar rises above 0.6600 to mark fresh eight-month highs

The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6610 on Thursday. The daily chart’s technical analysis suggested a persistent bullish bias as the pair moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, suggesting a bullish bias is active. Additionally, the pair has also moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.

On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the psychological level of 0.6650, followed by the ascending channel’s upper boundary around 0.6680.

The AUD/USD pair could find its primary support at nine-day EMA at 0.6558. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and prompt the pair to test the 50-day EMA of 0.6503. Further declines would weaken the medium-term price momentum and drive the pair to approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6480, followed by the three-week low at 0.6454, which was recorded on July 17.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities

Gold price remains depressed below $3,400 amid trade optimism; downside seems limited

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains on the defensive during the Asian session on Thursday and looks to extend the previous day's sharp retracement slide from its highest level since June 16. Reports that the US and the European Union (EU) are closing in on a tariff deal add to the optimism led by the US-Japan trade agreement. This remains supportive of the upbeat market mood and turns out to be a key factor undermining demand for the safe-haven bullion.

However, a combination of factors could act as a tailwind for the Gold price and limit deeper losses. Investors remain uncertain about the likely timing and the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Adding to this, fears that the central bank's independence could be under threat from mounting political interference keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near a two-week low and could offer support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand on trade optimism

US President Donald Trump announced late Tuesday that his administration had reached a trade deal with Japan. Furthermore, reports that the US and the European Union are heading towards a 15% trade deal boost investors' confidence and weigh on the safe-haven Gold price for the second straight day on Thursday.

The markets do not expect an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve in July despite Trump's continuous push for lower borrowing costs. In fact, Trump has been attacking Fed Chair Jerome Powell personally over his stance on holding rates and repeatedly calling for the central bank chief's resignation.

Moreover, Fed Governor Chris Waller and Trump appointee Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman have advocated a rate reduction as soon as the next policy meeting on July 30. This keeps the US Dollar depressed near a two-and-a-half-week low and could offer some support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Traders now look forward to the release of flash PMIs, which would provide a fresh insight into the global economic health and influence the safe-haven commodity. Apart from this, the crucial European Central Bank policy decision might infuse some volatility in the markets and drive the XAU/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the US economic docket features Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and New Home Sales data, which, in turn, would drive the USD and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the commodity. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants caution for aggressive traders.

Gold price bulls have the upper hand amid the formation of a short-term ascending trend-channel

>From a technical perspective, the recent move up along an upward sloping channel since the beginning of this month points to a well-established short-term uptrend. Adding to this, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the Gold price is more likely to find decent support near the $3,370-3,368 strong horizontal resistance breakpoint. A convincing break below the said area, however, could expose the lower end of the trend-channel, currently pegged near the $3,333-3,332 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken decisively might shift the near-term bias in favor of the XAU/USD bears.

On the flip side, momentum back above the $3,400 mark could pause near the $3,438-3,440 static barrier. This coincides with the trend-channel resistance, above which the Gold price could accelerate the positive move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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