Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 Jul 2025

Thu Jul 31 09:27:53 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 Jul 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE rebounds in midweek session...

The ZSE market rebounded in the penultimate session of the month as the
All-Share Index recovered 0.40% to 202.25pts while, the Top Ten Index added
0.64% to 195.68pts. The Agriculture Index went up 1.93% to 170.96pts while,
the MidCap Index fell 0.97% to 247.40pts. BAT surged 15.00% to $80.5000 as
it headlined the top performers of the day while, tea producer Tanganda
firmed up 5.53% to $1.0869. Brick maker Willdale ticked up 2.29% to $0.0400
as, Meikles trailed on a 1.19% gain to close at $3.5415. Concluding the top
five gainers set of the day was telecommunications giant Econet that edged
up 0.70% to $4.5329. Transport and logistics group Unifreight led the
laggards of the day as it sank 14.50% to $1.1200 while, Ariston followed on
a 10.94% decline to $0.0395. Sugar refiner Star-Africa tumbled 9.31% to
$0.0400 as SeedCo Limited followed after a 8.30% slump that took it $3.5304,
having traded a low of $3.5000. Plastic pipes and fittings manufacturer
Proplastics slid 6.08% to $1.3501 and capped off the top five losers of the
day. 

Turnover dropped 61.93% to $7.32m while, volumes exchanged plummeted 40.97%
to 2.64m shares. Driving the volume aggregates was Proplastics which claimed
53.46% contribution as, Delta trailed behind with a notable 12.99%
contribution of the total. Propelling the value aggregates was Delta again
which headed after claiming 62.17% while, Proplastics accounted for 26.01%
of the same. The Tigere REIT put on 0.37% to $1.3549 on 85,199 units while,
Revitus REIT edged up 0.31% to $0.8050 on 550 units. Datvest MCS ETF shed
5.02% to $0.0285 as 122,500 units worth $3,490.50 exchanged hands.-

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

Rand subdued as South Africa scrambles to secure US trade deal

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand was flat in early trade on Wednesday, with
mounting pressure on the country to ink a trade pact with the United States
before Washington's August 1 deadline.

At 0705 GMT the rand traded at 17.8550 against the dollar , little changed
from its previous close.

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start your day. Sign up here.

South Africa's trade minister said on Tuesday it was still committed to
negotiating a trade agreement, days before a 30% levy on its exports to the
U.S. is due to kick in on Friday.

The country is still awaiting a response on its offer which includes buying
U.S. liquefied natural gas, simplifying rules for U.S. poultry imports and
investing $3.3 billion in U.S. industries including mining.

The dollar last traded softer against a basket of currencies as traders eyed
a rate decision from the world's largest economy which could give clues on
the Federal Reserve's trajectory.

South Africa's central bank is due to announce its rate decision on
Thursday, when another 25-basis-point cut is expected by economists polled
by Reuters.

South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond was stronger in early deals,
as the yield fell 3.5 basis points to 9.785%.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Nigeria

Naira records slight depreciation as summer-dollar demand resurfaces

The naira recorded a slight depreciation across the foreign exchange (FX)
market on Wednesday as renewed dollar demand, driven by summer travel plans,
resurfaced.

By the close of trading at the parallel market, popularly referred to as the
black market, the naira weakened by 1.2% to close at N1,550 per dollar,
compared to N1,532 quoted the last week. This represents a N18 loss against
the greenback.

At the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), data published by
the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the local currency also
depreciated slightly. The dollar was quoted at N1,534.52 on Wednesday,
compared to N1,533.18 quoted on Tuesday, indicating a marginal N1.34 drop.

Read also: Naira bonds beat EM peers as Tinubu reforms get noticed

Traders attributed the mild depreciation to increased demand from end-users
planning to travel abroad for summer holidays. Despite the current pressure,
the naira has shown relative stability in recent months, supported by the
policy measures implemented by the CBN.

A new report by United Capital Research noted that improved sentiment could
drive further stability in the FX market, with potential for naira
appreciation. The firm projects the naira to close 2025 within the
N1,490–N1,520 per dollar range.

Uche Uwaleke, Professor of Capital Market and President of the Capital
Market Academics of Nigeria, said the naira is trading around N1,533 per
dollar in the official market and approximately N1,530–N1,537 in the
parallel market, suggesting a near convergence between the two rates.

However, analysts at Renaissance Capital estimate that even with the current
convergence, the naira remains overvalued by about 26% when compared to its
historical real effective exchange rate average.

“While the naira appears slightly overvalued, its relative stability, backed
by recent reforms, may support investor confidence in H2 2025,” Uwaleke
stated during his presentation at the Arthur Steven Asset Management (ASAM)
Webinar Series on Wednesday.

Similarly, a report by Coronation noted that the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign
Exchange Market (NAFEM) reference rate appreciated marginally to N1,533.18
per dollar.

The firm reiterated its outlook for the market rate to hover between N1,500
and N1,600 per dollar, supported by increased foreign portfolio investor
(FPI) participation and growing confidence in the Central Bank’s reforms.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar gains against peers after Fed leaves rates unchanged

(Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against major peers on Wednesday after
the Federal Reserve left U.S. interest rates unchanged, in line with market
expectations but rebuffing pressure from President Donald Trump.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to keep its benchmark overnight
interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range for the fifth consecutive
meeting.

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start your day. Sign up here.

Both Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher
Waller, who were appointed by Trump, dissented, preferring to lower rates by
25 basis points.

In his subsequent press briefing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he is
expecting a slow process when it comes to understanding how trade tariffs
impact inflation.

"The Fed's decision to hold rates steady came as no surprise, though markets
took note of two dissenting votes in favor of a cut," said Uto Shinohara,
senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management in Chicago.

"The dollar remained well-supported following this morning’s stronger data
and the Fed announcement, with the market pricing the September meeting as a
coin-flip," Shinohara added.

Earlier in the session, data showed that U.S. economic growth rebounded more
than expected in the second quarter, expanding by 3% compared with an
estimate of 2.4% based on a Reuters poll of economists.

The euro extended losses against the dollar following the Fed's decision and
as Powell spoke. It was last down 1% to $1.141775, on track for the fifth
straight session of losses and trading at its lowest level since June 11.

The euro is also poised to record its first monthly drop in 2025, following
a sharp reaction to a U.S.-European Union trade deal earlier this week.

The dollar index added to its gains after the Fed. It was up 0.96% at 99.82,
hitting its highest level since May 29 and on course to post its first month
of gains this year.

U.S. Treasury yields were mostly higher. The 2-year note yield, which
typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose
6.6 basis points to 3.941%.

"I think people are reading too much into the GDP numbers; nobody in markets
should think GDP was that weak in Q1 and that strong in Q2 even though the
big drivers were inventories and net exports," said Steve Englander, head of
global G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered in New York.

"I will add the two quarters together and they averaged about 1.5% GDP
growth per quarter, which is not a recession but qualifies as mediocre."

Trade agreements struck with Japan last week and the EU over the weekend
signalled a renewed U.S. commitment to global engagement, easing investor
concerns.

Investors' focus is now on negotiations between China and the U.S. after
officials agreed to seek an extension of their 90-day tariff truce. But
Trump upped the ante against India and Brazil on Wednesday.

He announced that a 25% tariff on U.S. imports of Indian goods, starting on
August 1 and signed an executive order implementing an additional 40% tariff
on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%.

A column chart titled "US gross domestic product" that tracks the metric
over the last year.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities

Gold rebounds from one-month low on renewed trade uncertainty

Gold prices rebounded on Thursday (Jul 31) from a one-month low hit in the
previous session, as trade uncertainty stemming from fresh US tariff
announcements lifted bullion demand and investors bought on dips despite
reduced expectations of a US rate cut.

Spot gold was up 0.4 per cent at US$3,286.99 per ounce, as at 0041 GMT.
Bullion hit its lowest level since Jun 30 in the previous session.

US gold futures fell 0.5 per cent to US$3,282.10.

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday issued a blitz of tariff
announcements, ranging from changes to previously threatened levies on
imports of copper and on goods from Brazil to ending an exemption from
tariffs for small-value shipments from overseas.

Trump announced a deal with South Korea involving a 15 per cent US tariff on
imports from the country, while confirming ongoing negotiations with India
after declaring a 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods effective on Friday. He
also expressed optimism about trade talks with China, stating he expects a
fair deal to be reached.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday
and chair Jerome Powell’s comments following the decision dampened
expectations of rate cuts in September.

Gold, often considered a safe-haven asset during economic uncertainties,
tends to do well in a low interest rate environment.

The market awaits the US core PCE index data due later in the day, which is
expected to rise 0.3 per cent month on month and 2.7 per cent year on year,
as per a Reuters poll.

US economic growth rebounded more than expected in the second quarter, but
that measurement grossly overstated the economy’s health as declining
imports accounted for the bulk of the improvement and domestic demand
increased at its slowest pace in 2½ years.

Spot silver held steady at US$37.10 per ounce, platinum fell 0.3 per cent to
US$1,308.85 and palladium rose 0.9 per cent to US$1,216.25. REUTERS

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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