Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 June 2025

Thu Jun 19 10:07:58 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 June 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE   recovers  marginally   in  mid-week trades...

The market reversed prior session's losses as the All-Share Index advanced
0.04% to 195.27pts. The Mid Cap Index also recovered 0.21% to 225 .lSpts
while, the Agriculture Index extended its rising streak by a 0.07% gain to
59.47pts, mainly anchored by gains in Tanganda and Ariston. On the contrary,
the Blue-Chip Index was 0.02% lower at 193.32pts. Zimre Holdings led the
gainers of the day as it charged 8.00% to $0.3240, trailed by bankers
Ecocash that rebounded 4.17% to $0.1250. Tea producer Tanganda that is
trading under a cautionary edged up 2.51% to $0.9918 while, sugar refiner
Star Africa was l.55% firmer at $0.0508. Ariston fastened the top five
.gainers'  list  of  the  day  on  a  0.13%  improvement  to $0.M04.
Partially  we.ighing down  the  market  was  General Beltings that parred
off 0.50% to $0.1000 while, Econet declined 0.36% to close at VWAP of
$3.9627 on its last cum- dividend trading day. Brick manufacturer Willdale
slid 0.31% to $0.0399 while, retailer OK Zimbabwe fell 0.19% to $0.2990.
Cigarette producer BAT capped the top five performers of the day on a 0..12%
decline to $80.0000.

Market activity declined significantly during the session as trading volume
succumbed 83.83% to 7.44m shares while, turnover correspondingly decreased
by 86.75% to $2.35m. In the volume category, activity was mainly skewed in
General Beltings that contributed 94.39% of the total traded. The trio of
Delta, Genera1I Beltings and TSL drove the value aggregate as they claimed a
combined 91.55% of the total traded. In the ETF category, the Cass Saddle
ETF dosed 6.35% higher at $0.1595 as 5,250 units traded in the name. The
Ti1gere REIT was 1.85% down at $1.1675 as 8.45m units exchanged hands in the
name. .EFESEC

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand slips as risk appetite wanes, focus on central bank
review

(Reuters) - The rand weakened in early trade on Thursday, weighed down by
risk-off sentiment as the Iran-Israel conflict continued into a seventh day
and as investors awaited the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Financial
Stability Review.

At 0651 GMT, the rand traded at 18.1075 against the U.S. dollar , roughly
down 0.5% on Wednesday's close, and at it's lowest level in a month.

This was in line with other emerging market peers as investors fled to safe
haven assets while weighing the possibility of U.S. involvement in the
Iran-Israel conflict.

Later on Thursday, domestic investor attention will shift to the central
bank's June Financial Stability Review, in which it evaluates risks to the
country's financial stability and outlines the policy actions taken to
mitigate them.

Last month, the SARB cut its main lending rate, but stressed that U.S.
President Donald Trump's trade war and elevated uncertainty were likely to
pose risks.

South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond was weaker in early deals,
with the yield rising 4 basis points to 10.16%.

Reporting by Sfundo Parakozov; Editing by Rachna Uppal

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Nigeria

Naira Skids as FX Demand Exceeds Dollar Volume

The naira skidded off the bull track in the Nigerian foreign exchange market
(NFEM) as demand exceeded the US dollar volume supplied on Wednesday.
According to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) daily
forex platform, the naira fell to N1549.20 on Wednesday from N1345.26, which
was quoted as the NFEM rate the previous day.

The spot rate movement suggests the exchange rate worsened on the day,
reflecting higher demand and lower US dollar liquidity. The external
reserves has fallen below the $38 billion mark as the apex bank maintained
forex market interventions.

But analysts noted that the authority's spending to keep the naira stable
has eased compared to market development witnessed last month. The CBN
defended the naira with $580 million in May with a sequence of forex market
intervention sales.

The exchange rate is projected to stabilize around N1600 per dollar in 2025
amidst hope of economic recovery and a boost in fiscal performance. The
market has acknowledged that the CBN has continued to supply forex into the
currency market to support the local currency. The trend has become a norm,
and has helped stabilise the naira.

"While we believe that this has not been for the purposes of intervening
directly in the rate, rather it has been simply supporting liquidity flow.
This will not bode well if the CBN feels obliged to continue over the long
term", Verto said in a macro update. In the parallel market, the naira
weakened to trade at N1565.00/$.

FX market analysts are calling for more transparency and a bold move to
refrain from over-supplying of US dollars from the CBN directly in a bid to
narrow the official and parallel market rates. 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar trades higher after Fed, investors focus on Israel-Iran conflict

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar traded higher against most major currencies on
Wednesday, but remained weaker against the yen after the Federal Reserve
kept interest rates unchanged as economic uncertainty and tariffs continue
to paint a murky outlook.

Policymakers still forecast slashing rates by half a percentage point this
year, but have slowed the pace of future cuts, concerned that President
Donald Trump's tariffs would stoke inflation.

"The speculation continues to be up in the air. Q2 numbers are going to be
key to really coming to the realization that we are under actual
recessionary pressures that will force the Fed to really rethink what
they're doing," said Juan Perez, director of trading, at Monex USA.

"They are receiving mixed signals, so they're sending back mixed signals."

With the Fed's decision now behind it, markets remain focused on the
fighting between Israel and Iran, which has spurred investors to scoop up
safe havens.

Israel has bombarded arch-enemy Iran over the past six days to halt its
nuclear activity and has asserted the need for a change of government in the
Islamic Republic.

The U.S. military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters
reported, stirring speculation about U.S. intervention that investors fear
could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply
chains and infrastructure.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has rejected Trump's demand
for unconditional surrender on Wednesday, and the U.S. president said his
patience had run out, but gave no clues on his next step.

The dollar has resumed its role as a safe haven, having gained around 1%
against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On
Wednesday, the U.S. currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower
against the yen and the franc and more noticeably so against the euro and
the pound.

Against a basket of six other major currencies, the dollar is still down
around 8% so far this year as confidence in the U.S. economy and the
reliability of Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner
have faded.

U.S. markets are closed on Thursday for the Juneteenth federal holiday.

Against the yen , the dollar pared losses and was last seen down 0.06% to
145.18 and was 0.36% higher against the franc at 0.8190 francs.

NO CHANGE FROM THE FED

Traders were expecting the U.S. central bank to leave borrowing costs
unchanged and were looking to parse what Chair Jerome Powell says about the
outlook for growth and inflation.

Uncertainty was already running high and recent data have begun to show the
impact of Trump's erratic approach to trade and tariffs. The escalation of
conflict in the Middle East, and the surge in crude oil prices to about $75
a barrel, have further complicated the picture for policymakers.

"Although not outright mentioned, inflationary concerns of tariffs and an
oil shock coming from the Middle East are also reasons that they are not
cutting interest rates," said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at
Osaic.

Still, Blancato believes the Fed is "missing the mark by not getting the
process of cutting rates."

The dollar kept to weaker ranges earlier in the day after data showed the
number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell,
but stayed elevated. Meanwhile, the Swedish central bank cut rates as
anticipated, leaving the crown weaker against the euro , which rose 1% to
11.0770 crowns.

On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England and the Norges
Bank will deliver their respective rate decisions.

The pound fell 0.12% to $1.3411, after having received an early boost from
data showing inflation cooled no more than expected to an annual rate of
3.4% in May, ahead of the BoE decision. The euro slipped 0.03% to $1.1476.'

In the background, an area of frustration for investors was a Group of Seven
meeting in Canada that yielded little on the tariff front ahead of Trump's
early-July deadline for additional import levies.

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold falls after Fed expects slower pace of future rate cuts

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve
held interest rates steady and signaled a slower pace of cuts in the future,
and chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is expecting a "meaningful
amount of inflation" in coming months.

Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,374.75 an ounce by 3:19 p.m. EDT (1919 GMT).
U.S. gold futures settled 0.03% higher at $3,408.1.

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Spot prices had briefly risen after the Fed held interest rates at its
current 4.25%-4.50% range and pointed at a half percentage point reduction
by year end.

However, "Chair Powell sapped the initial optimism by repeating multiple
times that given low and stable unemployment, the Fed is in a good spot to
wait and see. He hinted broadly that September could be a live meeting but
it wasn't enough for asset markets or gold which were hoping for a more
dovish tilt," said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.

"Gold needs to reclaim 3,400 for bulls to take firm control."

While policymakers still anticipate cutting rates by half a percentage point
this year, they slightly slowed the expected pace from there to a quarter
percentage point cut each in 2026 and 2027.

Powell also said the forecasts could change based on incoming data,
especially on inflation.

Meanwhile, Trump said on Wednesday that he may meet with Iran to talk about
the Isran-Israel conflict.

Geopolitical tensions and low interest rates lift gold's appeal.

"The prevailing trend of seeking alternative stores of value beyond the U.S.
dollar remains strong, driven by a growing desire for assets that are
independent of external control," said Ryan McIntyre, Managing Partner at
Sprott Inc.

Spot silver fell 1.5% to $36.70 per ounce, while platinum gained 4.3% to
$1,319.03, after rising 5% earlier to its highest since February 2021.

Palladium fell 0.5% to $1,046.75.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that platinum and silver's recent rallies are
primarily speculative and lack fundamental support.

Reporting by Sarah Qureshi, Ashitha Shivaprasad, Anjana Anil in Bengaluru.
Editing by Jane Merriman, Vijay Kishore and Sahal Muhammed

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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