Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 10 March 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 10 March 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentar

 

ZSE retreats in week-opening session...

The ZSE reversed prior session's gains as the primary All Share Index lost
1.17% to 206.89pts while, the Blue-Chip Index rose 0.18% to  207.69pts . The
Agriculture Index eased 0.01% to 181.59pts while, the Mid Cap Index declined
0.15% to 227.72pts. Zimre Holdings Limited topped the laggards of the day on
a 14.29% dip to $0.2400, followed by logistics company Unifreight that
trimmed 1.96% to $2.0000. Hippo Valley tumbled 1.39% to close at $6.1100
while, Ecocash dropped 0.89% to $0.2134. Banking group CBZ Holdings Limited
capped the worst performers of the day on a 0.28% retreat to end the day
pegged at $7.7600. Partially mitigating today's losses was Nampak that
jumped 8.33% to $0.6500 while, Seed Co Limited rose 1.62% to $3 .7600.
Telecoms giant Econet surged 1.43% to settle at $3 .6638 while, banking
group NMB ticked up 0.30% to $3 .7194. Milk processor Dairibord completed
the top five winners of the day on a 0.17% lift to end the day pegged at

$1.4625 .

 

 

Activity aggregates enhanced in the session as volumes ballooned 46.78% to
940,300 shares while, turnover grew by 67.44% to $3.47m. Top volume drivers
of the day were Nampak (53.17%), Delta (14.44%) and NMB (12.62%). Delta, NMB
and Nampak anchored today's turnover after as they contributed 59.09%;
12.72% and 9.36% respectively. The only fund to trade amongst the ETFs was
the Datvest ETF that slipped 9.09% to end the day pegged at $0.0300 . The
Tigere REIT lost 0.21% to end the day at $1.1215 after a total of 2,473
units exchanged hands in the name.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South South South frica 

 

The rand weakens amid Trump's funding freeze and controversial land claims

 

The rand weakened more than 1% to R18.24 against the US dollar, down from an
over two-month high of R18.10 hit on 6 March, despite a weaker dollar, after
US President Donald Trump announced plans to cut all federal funding to the
country. 

 

The aid freeze comes as South Africa prepares a new trade proposal, amid
concerns over the possible expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity
Act (Agoa), which has facilitated billions in duty-free exports to the US. 

 

Trump on Friday repeated his claims that South Africa was being terrible to
long time farmers in the country.

 

"They are confiscating their land and farms, and much worse than that. A bad
place to be right now, and we are stopping all Federal Funding," Trump
posted on his Truth Social platform."To go a step further, any Farmer [with
family!] from South Africa, seeking to flee that country for reasons of
safety, will be invited into the United States of America with a rapid
pathway to Citizenship. This process will begin immediately!"

 

Trump has recently suspended the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
(PEPFAR) funding to South Africa after signing an Executive Order to cut
financial assistance to South Africa.

 

Wichard Cilliers, director and head of market risk at TreasuryONE, said the
rand weakened amid Trump's criticism

 

"This marks the latest development in the escalating tensions between the
two generally friendly nations, sparked by President Trump's accusation that
South Africa's new land law discriminates against white citizens," Cilliers
said.

 

"The South African rand saw a sharp decline following renewed criticism of
South Africa by Trump. The currency dropped as much as 1.1%, settling at
R18.22 per dollar. Trump reiterated his claims on his Truth Social account,
accusing South Africa of confiscating farmers' land and farms. He further
announced that the United States would halt all federal funding to South
Africa. This negative sentiment surrounding South Africa and Trump's
rhetoric continued to weigh on the rand."

 

The US dollar also came under pressure on Friday after the February jobs
report showed weaker-than-expected growth in nonfarm payrolls. 

 

The US economy added 143 000 jobs in January, below the anticipated 160 000
increase, contributing to concerns over economic slowdowns. 

 

The news sent the EUR/USD pair soaring, with the euro reaching new highs
near 1.0870, benefiting from the dollar's softness.

 

Investec chief economist, Annabel bishop, said the US has been highly active
on the foreign policy agenda front, but feared universal tariff hikes have
not materialised and many announced tariffs paused, reducing risk-off in
markets and so benefiting the rand.

 

"The new US administration's economic advisors recommend a modest tariff
regime, and to generally avoid measures causing high inflation, calming
markets, with the rand still tracking back towards its mid-December rate of
below R18.00/$1," Bishop said.

 

BUSINESS REPORT

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

 

Nigeria's competitiveness hits 25-yr high on weak naira

The naira fall has driven Nigeria's competitiveness to a 25-year high, with
the nation's trade surplus rising to its highest in more than a decade.

 

The naira, which has been devalued by more than 70 percent, fell from 460 to
the dollar around 2023 to just below 1,500/$ now - one of the largest
currency adjustments anywhere in the world for years. Only the Ethiopian
birr has seen a bigger move recently.

 

"With the naira's fall, Nigeria is arguably now more competitive than at any
time in the past 25 years," according to a report by British think tank
Chatham House.

 

"The path to a more capital-rich, more diverse Nigerian economy can only be
built on a competitive naira," Chatham House said in its report entitled,
'Nigeria's economy needs the naira to stay.'

 

Weak naira lifts trade surplus

 

Similarly, Nigeria's trade surplus surged to its highest level in at least a
decade, powered by naira devaluation that made exports more competitive.
Analysts see the streak extending in 2025.

 

Africa's biggest oil producer recorded a net trade surplus of N16.9 trillion
in 2024 - the highest on record. This is more than double the nation's trade
surplus in the previous year, according to BusinessDay's analysis.

 

A trade surplus, also known as a positive balance of trade, occurs when a
country's exports exceed its imports. Trade deficit, on the other hand, is
the opposite.

 

However, any less volatility of the naira could potentially reduce gains
from currency devaluation on trade surplus.

 

 

"We anticipate a sustained rise in the trade surplus due to the expected
expansion in Nigeria's export trade volumes driven by the ramp-up in crude
oil production on the back of increased refining capacity," analysts at
FBNQuest Merchant Bank said.

 

"A pick-up in import volumes driven by improved FX liquidity and enhanced
accessibility to foreign currency will likely compress the nation's trade
surplus balance."

 

Weaker naira better than cheaper dollar

 

While the naira has depreciated compared to what it was two years ago, it
has improved Nigeria's balance of payments, maintaining steady progress for
nine straight quarters.

 

It has brought in foreign capital, which has seen the country's reserves
balloon to more than $40 billion.

 

The naira devaluation and the removal of fuel subsidies have offered some
breather for the Nigerian budget, with the nation's fiscal deficit narrowed
from 6.4 percent of GDP in early 2023 to 4.4 percent in early 2024.

 

Read also: Why naira stability is the cornerstone of Nigeria's economic
future

 

But a cheaper dollar makes imports rise while widening trade deficits and
hampering economic growth.

 

"Excessively cheap dollars encourage companies and individuals to find ways
of getting money out of the country, to park wealth in safer havens at low
cost," the report stated.

 

While the naira devaluation and removal of subsidies have seen the economy
turn the corner, the reforms birthed by President Bola Tinubu have had
far-reaching consequences on ordinary Nigerians, whose spending power has
been hammered by poverty that has blighted the lives of at least 129 million
people.

 

 

"President Tinubu's economic reforms give Nigeria the best hope for
sustainable growth that it has had for decades. The path the reform process
takes next will be crucial for the country's future," Chatham House noted.

 

Nigeria 'desperately' needs FDI to remain productive economy

 

Nigeria's economic recovery lies in attracting capital in the form of
foreign direct investment (FDI) to improve productivity, job creation and
growth.

 

"It is something of a tragedy that this country of 230 million people has
failed to attract more than $2 billion worth of net FDI inflows annually in
recent years."

 

Stronger naira will wipe out gains of reforms

 

 

There has been a push for the country to allow the naira to strengthen
against the dollar to abate inflationary pressures that ended 2024 at 34
percent and crashed to 24 percent in January 2025 as a result of the
inflation data overhaul.

 

Read also: NNPC suspends naira-for-crude deal for Dangote, others

 

But this will erase the hard-won currency stability and bring the country
back to its status quo as gains of reforms diminish.

 

"A currency that stays competitive is a necessary - although by no means
sufficient - condition to encourage more productive capital to enter the
country.

 

"Also essential is a stable commitment to improve the business climate -
everything from improving electricity supply to tackling corruption,
reducing red tape and enhancing the sanctity of contracts," the report
indicated.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

Dollar dithers as safety bid flows to the yen

 

(Reuters) - The yen was investors' safe harbour of choice on Tuesday and it
traded near five-month highs as fears about a tariff-driven slowdown in U.S.
growth have rattled U.S. stocks and the dollar.

The Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab fell 4% overnight and the S&P 500 (.SPX),
opens new tab slid 2.7% as equities caught up with a big rally in U.S.
bonds, moving on the risk that U.S. economic growth slows down.

The yen touched a five-month peak of 146.625 per dollar and was last trading
at 146.85.

Other moves in the currency market were more muted, but the lack of flight
to the dollar - which has been sinking in recent weeks - was noteworthy,
according to analysts.

The overnight drop in the risk-sensitive Australian dollar was a modest 0.4%
and it last bought $0.6272. Sterling was holding on above its 200-day moving
average at $1.2875 and the euro was steady just above $1.08.

There were falls in the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso - the economies
whose exports are to bear the brunt of U.S. tariffs - but they were modest.

The Canadian dollar was last steady around C$1.44 per dollar and the peso
was at 20.34 per dollar. China's yuan was steady at 7.26 per dollar in early
offshore trade on Tuesday.

"Historically, the dollar outperforms when we get a solid rise in
volatility, but when the U.S. economy and U.S. equity market is the central
point of concern, this is now limiting the attractiveness of the dollar,"
said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.

The turmoil in equities seemed to be triggered by a Donald Trump Fox News
interview, in which the president talked about a "period of transition" and
declined to predict whether his tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico would
result in a U.S. recession.

The dollar index , however, had already notched its largest weekly drop in
more than two years last week as selling tracked a fall in U.S. bond yields
and the euro leapt on German plans to reform a brake on borrowing.

"The market is unsure whether fading U.S. exceptionalism will continue to
hurt the dollar or whether the dollar benefits from its safe-haven status,"
said Bank of Singapore strategist Sim Moh Siong, noting any extension of
selling in stock markets may lead safe-haven dollar buying to finally kick
in.

The dollar index was mostly flat overnight as small rises against the Aussie
and sterling were offset by losses on the yen and it settled at 103.89.

Germany's Greens overnight vowed to block plans for a massive increase in
state borrowing to revamp the military, but forwarded rival proposals in a
bid for compromise and the euro handed back none of its massive gains from
last week.

U.S. bonds, however, rallied, pushing down yields at a time when global
yields are spiking.

In a week, the gap between 10-year U.S. and German yields has shrunk 33
basis points and the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields has shrunk 17 bps.

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold holds Gold collapses beneath $2,900 as investors flee on recession
concerns

Gold (XAU) price retreats as the week begins, down 0.70% and falls below the
$2,900 figure as investors' fears of a recession in the United States (US)
grow amid controversial trade policies implemented by the US President
Donald Trump. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $2,890
after hitting a daily high of $2,918.

 

Wall Street continued to edge lower, depicting a dismal market sentiment due
to the ongoing economic slowdown. On Friday, Trump appeared in an interview
and said, "There is a period of transition, because what we're doing is very
big. .We're bringing wealth back to America. .That's a big thing, and there
are always periods; it takes a little time."

 

In the meantime, Gold traders booked profits amid concerns that the US
economy is facing the challenges of a stagflationary scenario. Recent data
suggests the economy is slowing down sharply. The Atlanta Fed GDP Now model
predicts the first quarter of 2025 at -2.4%, which would be the first
negative print since the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

The Greenback, which was trading with losses, has recovered some ground
according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY is up 0.09% at 103.99, shy
of reclaiming the 104.00 mark.

 

Economic concerns are spreading globally after China's inflation in February
came at -0.7% YoY, well below the -0.5% estimated by economists. Worries are
increasing that the economy might slow down.

 

Given the backdrop, traders would be eyeing the release of inflation data in
the US. A hot inflation report could weigh on expectations of further easing
by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and might prevent the US central bank from
cutting interest rates at upcoming meetings.

 

This week, the US economic docket will feature Tuesday's JOLTs Job Openings
data, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday.

 

Daily digest market movers: Gold price retreats amid falling US yields

The US 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped nearly nine basis points to
4.218% as traders eye the Fed's interest rate cuts.

US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected
Securities (TIPS) yield that correlates inversely to Gold prices, edge down
five-and-a-half basis points to 1.906%, a tailwind for the non-yielding
metal.

Recently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is not in
a hurry to lower rates. Powell added that getting inflation to 2% would be
bumpy and that the central bank doesn't need to overreact to one or two
readings. Powell said the Fed is well-positioned regarding monetary policy.

The New York Fed Consumer Sentiment Survey revealed that inflation
expectations for one year in February increased from 3% to 3.1%. For the
three and five-year periods, they remained unchanged at 3%. Americans expect
price increases in gas, rent and food.

The latest US jobs report for February was mixed, with the economy adding
over 150K people to the workforce, but the Unemployment Rate rose by 4.1%.
Nevertheless, the data shows that the labor market remains solid.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) continues to purchase Gold, according to
the World Gold Council (WGC). The PBoC increased its holdings by 10 tonnes
in the first two months of 2025. However, the largest buyer was the National
Bank of Poland (NBP), which increased its reserve by 29 tonnes, its largest
purchase since June 2019, when it bought 95 tonnes.

Money market traders had priced in 80 basis points of easing in 2025, up
from 74 bps last Friday, via data from Prime Market Terminal.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price drops, sellers eye $2,900

Gold price fell to a five-week low of $2,880 earlier on the day, with
momentum about to turn bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI)
poised to cross below the 50-neutral threshold.

 

If XAU/USD closes daily below $2,900, sellers could be in charge and target
the $2,850 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the February 28 low of
$2,832, followed by the $2,800 mark.

 

Conversely, if Gold ends above $2,900, the next resistance would be $2,950,
followed by the record high at $2,954. A breach of the latter would expose
the $3,000 mark.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:               bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

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Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

 

 	

 

 

 	

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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


 (c) 2025 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

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