Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 17 March 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 17 March 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentar

 

Heavies weigh the market in Monday's trades...

 

The ZSE market retreated in Monday's session as the All-Share Index fell 0.61% to 209.64pts while, the Blue-Chip Index was 0.79% weaker at 209.96pts. On the contrary, the Agriculture Index was 0.50% up to settle at 187.61pts while, the Mid Cap gained a mere 0.002% to settle at 232.60pts. Leading the laggards of the day was First Mutual Holdings that parred off 10.85% to settle at a VWAP of $3.8925, followed by Proplastics that shed 10.55% to $1.0000. Logistics concern Unifreight that is trading under cautionary slipped 5.00% to $1.9000 while, banking group CBZ was 3.47% lower at $7.5000. Lone miner RioZim shed 2.11% to $1.0000 as it capped the top five worst performers list of the day. Dairy processor Dairibord led the risers of the day as it edged up 5.55% to $1.6914 while, sugar processor Star Africa advanced 5.08% to $0.0399. Packaging group Nampak charged 2.64% to end trading$ 0.7595 while, Econet rose 0.80% to $4.0534 despite having reached a high of $4.5000. Sugar  producer  Hippo closed the  day  pegged at $6.1565 following a 0.60% ascent.

 

 

Activity aggregates were mixed in the session as volume traded fell by 18.56% to 490,270 shares while, turnover ballooned 303 .35% to see $16.69m exchanged hands. Telecommunications company Econet dominated the activity aggregates of the day as it contributed 71.06% of the volume and 84.62% of the value traded. Other notable volume driver was Proplastics that claimed 24.55% of the total traded. The Cass Saddle ETF edged up 12.50% to $0.0900 on 3,225 units. In the  Reit Category, the  Revitus REIT declined 3.05% to $0.7700 as scrappy 5 units traded in the name while, the Tigere REIT was 0.35% weaker at $1.1800.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

South Africa

 

 

South African rand gains even as ties with US plumb new lows

(Reuters) - The rand firmed on Monday against a weaker dollar, as market participants appeared to shrug off the United States' decision late last week to expel South Africa's ambassador in yet another sign of the two countries' rapidly souring relations.

At 1501 GMT, the rand traded at 18.11 against the dollar , about 0.4% stronger than its previous close.

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The dollar last traded about 0.3% weaker against a basket of currencies as markets await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday amid uncertainty over President Donald Trump's tariff policies and muted economic data.

 

South Africa called Rasool's expulsion regrettable and said it was committed to building mutually beneficial relations.

Analysts, however, said interactions with the Trump administration were already tense before the latest spat and expressed confidence the sides would mend ties due to the strategic value of their trade.

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South Africa supplies many critical minerals to the U.S. while it benefits from preferential access to U.S. markets under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act.

"The U.S. still relies on SA's key minerals (chrome, platinum, manganese, vanadium), which means a total breakdown is unlikely," said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

"Instead, the Trump administration is expected to favour bilateral negotiations for new trade terms."

Later this week, investors' focus will shift to local inflation data (ZACPIY=ECI), opens new tab due to be released on Wednesday and an interest rate decision (ZAREPO=ECI), opens new tab on Thursday.

Negotiations between political parties over this year's deadlocked budget could also move markets.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top-40 index (.JTOPI), opens new tab closed about 0.7% higher. The benchmark 2030 government bond was marginally stronger, with the yield down 0.5 basis points at 9.16%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira Falls to N1528 amidst CBN FX Sales to Banks

 

The naira fell against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market as a result of a foreign currency shortage, first trading session after the Apex Bank intervention.  Reflecting tight FX liquidity, the exchange rate worsened at the official window closing at N1528 per greenback as demand exceeded the supply.

 

Hence, the naira depreciated by 0.66% in the official window, closing at N1,528.03 per dollar. Similarly, the naira ended the day at ₦1,570 per dollar in the parallel market.

 

 

The local currency had witnessed a last-minute rally on Friday as the authority stepped up efforts to boost FX inflows sufficient enough to curb exchange rate pressure. Due to significant fluctuation in money pricing last week, the Central Bank (CBN) sold $360 million to authorised dealer banks at controlled rates.

 

Analysts at AIICO Capital Limited stated that the market faced strong demand pressure despite the CBN’s intervention. The US dollar for naira pair traded within a range of N1,512 to N1,552, leading to a 67-bp depreciation of the naira, which closed at N1,528.03.

 

 

Foreign reserves rose to $38.35 billion amidst a declining global crude oil market. Oil prices rose slightly after the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to striking Yemen’s Houthis until the Iran-backed group ceases attacks on shipping. Meanwhile, positive economic data from China boosted hopes for stronger demand.

 

President Donald Trump ordered military action against the Houthis on Saturday following their assaults on Red Sea trade routes. U.S. official suggested the campaign could last weeks. Brent crude climbed 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $70.85 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.39.

 

 

Gold prices remained firm, hovering just below the $3,000 mark, with investors focused on trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,994.79 an ounce after hitting a record of $3,004.86.

 

 

Analysts expect more volatility, as OPEC+’s decision to increase oil production from April has weighed on prices. However, the potential for stricter U.S. sanctions on Iran outweighs the impact of the gradual OPEC+ output hike. #Naira Falls to N1528 amidst CBN FX Sales to Banks

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global MArkets

 

Dollar stuck near 5-month low, struggles to shake off growth concerns

 

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar wallowed near a five-month trough against the euro and other major peers on Tuesday as investors grappled with the potential economic impact of growing global trade tensions.

Fears that U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies could trigger a broader economic slowdown has undermined the greenback amid a string of soggy sentiment surveys.

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The dollar index , which measures the currency against six key rivals, has dropped around 6% from the more than two-year peak of 110.17 hit in mid-January. It was last at 103.44, struggling to make a decisive move away from a five-month low of 103.21 touched last Tuesday.

 

 

The U.S. currency hardly got much support from retail sales data on Monday that showed a modest rebound in February after a revised 1.2% decline in January.

The euro hovered around $1.0919 ahead of an expected vote on Germany's massive stimulus package, not far off its highest level since October 11 at $1.0947 touched last week.

Germany's constitutional court on Monday threw out new challenges by opposition parties against a plan by the prospective coalition government, paving the way for parliament to convene on Tuesday to consider the matter.

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The package includes a 500 billion euro ($544 billion) fund for infrastructure and sweeping changes to borrowing rules to bolster defence and revive growth in Europe's largest economy.

On the policy front, the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England are expected to stand pat on rates at their meetings this week, keeping markets focussed on any forward guidance from officials.

The Fed will also publish new economic projections, which will provide the most tangible evidence yet of how U.S. central bankers view the likely impact of the Trump administration's policies on the economy.

"In aggregate, we see the skew as dovish," Citi FX strategists wrote in a research note.

"If faced with lower growth/employment and higher inflation, we suspect the Fed will err on the side of caution and towards the growth/employment picture," they said.

Markets are hedging their bets, currently pricing in about 60 basis points of Fed cuts, a little over two reductions, for the rest of the year.

In Asia, while the BOJ is widely expected to raise interest rates later in the year, the yen pulled back from last Tuesday's peak of 146.545 per dollar, its strongest since October 4.

BOJ policymakers start their two-day meeting on Tuesday and are expected to discuss just how much of a risk the escalating U.S. trade war poses to Japan's economy, which will be key to the timing of its next rate hike.

The dollar was up 0.07% at 149.3 yen after earlier touching a little less than a two-week high of 149.46.

Sterling traded at $1.2985 to hold just under Monday's high of $1.2999, its strongest since November 7.

Elsewhere, Australia's central bank said on Tuesday it remained more cautious than the market about the prospects for further policy easing, after it cut interest rates for the first time in over four years last month.

The Aussie, which tends to act as a liquid proxy for the currency of its top trading partner, China, was near its highest in a little less than a month underpinned by firmer Chinese retail sales on Monday and optimism about officials' "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption.

The Australian dollar steadied at $0.6383, while the New Zealand dollar ticked up to its highest since December 10 at $0.58265 on Tuesday.

Bitcoin slipped 0.18% to $83,827.14.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Gold hits record high as tariff uncertainty fuels safe-haven demand

 

(Reuters) - Gold prices scaled a record peak above the crucial $3,000-mark on Tuesday for the second time in a week, as investors sought cover from economic concerns fuelled by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,006.88 an ounce as of 0525 GMT after hitting a record high of $3,016.92 per ounce earlier in the session.

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Gold climbed above the $3,000/oz milestone for the first time on Friday.

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U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $3,017.20.

"Gold is moving higher on account of a weaker dollar and continued tariff uncertainties... With Gold at record highs there is a lot of technical and chart based buying that kicks in since there is no resistance apparent on the charts," said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

The U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab wallowed near a four-month trough, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers.

Historically considered a hedge against geopolitical instability, gold has risen more than 14% year-to-date. Since Trump took office in January, gold has hit a record high 14 times as trade tensions boosted safe-haven demand.

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Trump has floated plans for a series of U.S. tariffs, from a flat 25% on steel and aluminium which came into effect in February to reciprocal and sectoral tariffs that he said will be imposed on April 2.

ANZ raised their up to 3-month gold price forecast to $3,100/oz and 6-month forecast to $3,200/oz, citing escalating geopolitical and trade tensions, easing monetary policy and strong central bank buying.

New economic projections from Federal Reserve officials this week will provide the most tangible evidence yet of the likely impact of Trump administration policies.

Forecasters have marked down their expectations for U.S. growth this year, raised concerns about a potential recession, and expect increased inflation.

Stocks on the move Monday included Tesla, which stumbled almost 5% after brokerage Mizuho lowered its price target on the EV maker's stock, which is down more than 40% for the year.

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"Israeli air strikes may also see tensions flare in the Middle East again and that could add to the litany of drivers pushing gold higher," Capital.com's financial market analyst Kyle Rodda said.

Spot silver firmed 0.1% to $33.85 an ounce, platinum added 0.2% to $1,002.50 and palladium rose 0.4% to $968.96.

 

Reporting by 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


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