Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 March 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 18 March 2025

 

 	



 

 	


ZSE commentar

 

CBZ weigh down the ZSE …

Banking group CBZ weighed down the market in Tuesday's session as the All-Share Index fell 0.19% to 209.25pts while, Mid Cap Index gained 0.64% to 234.09pts. CBZ led the laggards of the day on a 6.67% retreat to $7.0000, followed by tea producer Tanganda that slipped 0.50% to $1.0000. NMB completed the worst performers of the day on a 0.01% drop to $3.7025. Partially mitigating today's losses was General Beltings that jumped 98.89% to $0..1193 while, Zimre Holdings charged 10.42% to $0.2650. Retailer OKZIM surged 8.39% to close at $0.5000 while, Star Africa ticked up 2.93% to close at $0.0411. Telecoms giant Econet capped the top five gainers of the day on a 0.65% uplift to end pegged at $4.0796.

 

Activity aggregates were mixed in the session as volumes traded rose 8.10% to 530,000 shares while, turnover declined 84.28% to $2.62m. Top volume drivers of the day were NMB (34.92%), Econet (17.98%) and Delta (14.36%). Delta, NMB, Econet and SeedCo contributing a combined 97.61%. Datvest ETF was unchanged at $0.0300 as 9,300 units exchanged hands while, Morgan and Co MCS was stable at $1.9000 on 1,500 units. The Revitus REIT trimmed 15.00% to end the day pegged at $0.6545 as a mere 18 units exchanged hands in the session.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Nigeria

 

Naira Falls as FX Interventions Fail to Redirect Spot Rate

The naira tumbled against the US dollar across foreign exchange markets on Tuesday despite extended intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). US dollar demand heated up the currency market amidst a 25% decline weekly forex inflows in the official window.

 

The Nigerian foreign exchange market experienced significant demand pressure today despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) intervention, which saw the sale of over $44.75 million at rates between N1,522.70 and N1,531, AIICO Capital Limited said in a note to investors.

 

The US dollar to naira pair fluctuated between N1,522.70 and N1,549.50, leading to a 32 basis points depreciation of the naira, which closed at N1,532.93, the investment bank said in its note.

 

Data showed that FX inflows into the Nigerian autonomous foreign exchange window declined by 25% week on week to settle at $1 billion, from $1.34 billion in the comparable weak.

 

Total FX sales by CBN increased by $183.20 million on Friday, bringing the total US dollar volume supplied for the week to $543.20 million, TrustBanc Financial Group Limited said in an update.

 

The CBN has sold about $590 million in six days to banks to curb pressures on the Naira despite slowdown in FX accretion into the nation’s external reserves.  In the parallel market, the Naira ended the day at ₦1,580.

 

According to information from the CBN, the gross external reserves had reduced to about $38.4 billion after successive interventions sales to authorised dealer banks amidst dwindling inflows from oil exports.

 

Oil prices remained near a two-week high on Tuesday as rising tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Additionally, China’s plans for further economic stimulus supported expectations of stronger fuel demand in the world’s second-largest economy.

 

However, gains were limited as markets awaited the outcome of discussions between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding a possible Ukraine ceasefire, which could ease sanctions on Russian fuel exports.

 

Brent crude rose 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.32 per barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 17 cents, or 0.3%, to $67.75.  A slowdown in crude oil prices would put pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal performance, tracking below 2025 budget estimates while output continues to fluctuate.

 

 

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported a 3.77% month on month  decline in Nigeria’s crude oil production to 1.67 million barrels per day (mbpd)  – including condensates- in February 2025, down from 1.74mbpd in January.

 

The decline was broad-based across key terminals, with Forcados (-12.53%), Bonny (-21.81%), Qua Iboe (- 7.63%), Escravos (-13.47%), Brass (-16.64%), and Odudu (-11.26%) all recording lower output.

 

 

The contraction was driven by operational disruptions, pipeline leakages and crude theft. Despite peaking at 1.7mbpd during the month, Nigeria’s production remains below its 1.5mbpd OPEC quota. Looking ahead, government efforts to curb oil theft and improve infrastructure could support a gradual recovery in output.

 

Gold surged 1% to a new record high on Tuesday, remaining above the $3,000 mark as heightened Middle East tensions and trade uncertainties driven by Trump’s tariff policies increased demand for the safe-haven asset.

 

 

Spot gold peaked at $3,038.26 per ounce before settling at $3,031.22. Prices first surpassed $3,000 on March 14. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cautioned that U.S. tariffs could hinder economic growth in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, while also dampening global energy demand. #Naira Falls as FX Interventions Fail to Redirect Spot Rate Nigerian Exchange Falls by N73bn as Investors Dump VFD, OANDO

 

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Global Markets

 

Dollar eases vs euro after German vote on a spending surge

(Reuters) - The dollar eased against the euro on Tuesday as Germany's parliament approved plans for a massive spending surge on Tuesday and as the Federal Reserve kicked off its March policy meeting that could offer clues to the path of U.S. interest rates.

 

The German parliament's approval of plans for a massive spending surge throws off decades of fiscal conservatism in hopes of reviving economic growth and scaling up military spending for a new era of European collective defence.

"Germany, and by extension the euro zone, getting their fiscal act together is not only long overdue, but supports the bull case for the common currency over the medium-term," Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, said.

The euro also found support earlier after data showed German investor morale improved more than expected in March.

More broadly, currency market moves were largely muted on Tuesday as investors awaited policy announcements from major central banks, including from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

While analysts expect the Fed to hold its monetary policy stance amid persistent inflation concerns, investors will be looking to new economic projections from Fed officials for evidence of how U.S. central bankers view the likely impact of Trump administration policies.

"The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) will be the most interesting aspect, I imagine, with near-term inflation expectations likely nudged higher, and growth projections marked down a touch, though conviction behind those forecasts is going to be lacking, amid the ever-changing macro outlook," Brown said.

The greenback hit a two-week high against the yen before paring gains to trade about unchanged on the day at 149.165 yen, ahead of Wednesday's policy decision by the Bank of Japan.

BOJ policymakers are expected to discuss just how much of a risk the escalating U.S. trade war poses to Japan's economy.

"We would expect this adjustment in the pricing of the terminal rate to be maintained following the BoJ meeting," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG, referring to market expectations that rose from around 0.90% at the end of 2024 to close to 1.20%.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar slipped 0.4% to $0.6358 after rising to its highest in about a month on Monday.

Bitcoin , the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, was down 2.5% at $81,922.

Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Bernadette Baum and Nick Zieminski

 

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

Gold refreshes all-time high past $3,030 as focus turns to Fed's meeting

Traders bet on June Fed rate cuts, as falling US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar support gold’s uptrend.

Gold price skyrockets past the $3,000 figure and hit a record high of $3,038 on Tuesday amid uncertainty on United States (US) President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to be enacted on April 2, while traders eye Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision. XAU/USD is trading at $3,037, up by 1.20%.

 

Risk appetite remains deteriorated, even though talks between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin relieved some of traders’ stress with the latter agreeing to a 30-day halt on attacking Ukraine energy facilities, according to Reuters. Nevertheless, the Bullion rally continued with the precious metal gaining over 15% in the year so far.

 

Hostilities in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas sparked a leg-up in XAU/USD, as Israel strikes killed more than 400 people in Gaza, threatening a two-month ceasefire, revealed Reuters.

 

Data-wise, the US economic schedule revealed that Industrial Production improved in February. Contrarily, housing data was mixed, with Building Permits falling off the cliff, while Housing Starts rose sharply, revealed the US Census Bureau.

 

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, they see nearly a 66% chance of a rate cut in June.

 

In the meantime, Bullion continued to climb, sponsored by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar. The US 10-year T-note yield drops one basis point to 4.183%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, falls 0.17% to 103.23.

 

Daily digest market movers: Gold price poised to extend rally as real yields tumble

US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, which correlates inversely to Gold prices, dropped one and a half bps to 1.985% via Reuters.

US Industrial Production expanded 0.7% MoM in February, exceeding the 0.2% forecast and accelerating from January’s 0.3% gain, fueled by robust motor vehicle production.

Housing data was mixed in February. Building Permits dropped 1.2%, declining from 1.473 million to 1.456 million. Housing Starts jumped 11.2%, rising from 1.35 million to 1.501 million, indicating strength in construction activity.

Money market has priced in 61 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025, which has sent US Treasury yields plunging alongside the American Currency.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price conquers $3,000 and is set to end above that level

Gold price is upward biased, poised to challenge higher prices above the current YTD high of $3,038. If buyers clear the latter, they could test $3,050 and $3,100 figures. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought. But the strength of the trend hints that the “most extreme” reading would be 80; hence XAU/USD could continue to trend higher.

 

Conversely, if Bullion drops below $3,000, the first support would be the February 20 daily high at $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark.

 

Reporting by 

 

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

 


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Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

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Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	


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