Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 14 May 2025

Thu May 15 08:51:25 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 14 May 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE records negligible gains...

The ZSE market recorded negligible gains in midweek session as the primary
All Share Index added 0.01% to 194.59pts while, the Mid Cap Index put on
1.18% to 240.40pts. The Blue-Chip Index lost 0.38% to 188.40pts as the
Agriculture Index trimmed 1.48% to 201.68pts. Zimre Holdings headlined the
top performers of the day on a 15.00% jump to $0.2530, followed by seed
producer SeedCo that charged 9.09% to $3.0000 on scrappy 100 shares.
Retailer OKZIM inched up 6.45% to close at $0.3401 while, life assurer
Fidelity added 1.29% to $0.4305. Star Africa capped the top five gainers of
the day on a 0.85% lift to end at $0.0315. Cigarette manufacturer BAT led
the laggards on a 6.47% retreat to $130.0000 while, milk processor Dairibord
slipped 0.16% to close at $1.7225.

Volume of shares traded ballooned 100.91% to 7.57m shares while, turnover
grew by 100.99% to $25.21m. Telecoms giant Econet anchored activity
aggregates of the day as it claimed 69.94% of the total volume and 57.37% of
the value traded. The other notable value driver of the day was Delta that
accounted for 37.94%. Cass Saddle ETF was stable at $0.1000 as 200 units
exchanged hands while, Morgan & Co Multi Sector ETF was flat at $1.8900 on
100 units. The Tigere REIT was 1.48% higher at $1.2000.

VFEX extends losses...

The VFEX market extended losses in today's session as the All Share Index
lost 3.54% to 108.16pts. Padenga topped the worst performers of the day on a
15.39% drop to $0.2513  while, apparel retailer Edgars eased 7.14% to
$0.0130. Fast foods group Simbisa parred off 3.87% to settle at $0.3107
while, First Capital trimmed 1.92% to $0.0511. Hotelier African Sun
completed the worst performers of the day on a 1.15% slid to $0.0344.
Partially mitigating today's losses was Zimplow that firmed up 5.26% to
$0.0200, followed by conglomerate Innscor that ticked up 0.19% to $0.4715.
Volumes traded dropped 60.38% to 330,387 shares while, turnover declined
49.61% to $80,477.49. Activity was mainly confined in Padenga that
contributed 91.01% of the volume aggregate and 93.88% to
turnover...efesecurities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand slips after unemployment rate rises

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa's rand slipped on Tuesday after data showed the
country's unemployment rate rose in the first quarter of this year.

At 1513 GMT, the rand traded at 18.355 against the dollar , about 0.6%
weaker than its previous close.

South Africa's official unemployment rate - one of the highest in the world
- rose to 32.9% from 31.9% in the final quarter of last year.

Unemployment has been on the rise since 2016 and has been stuck above 30%
for the past five years.

Separately, the Business Day newspaper reported that preparations were at an
advanced stage for a meeting between President Cyril Ramaphosa and U.S.
President Donald Trump in Washington.

Ramaphosa's government wants to mend diplomatic and trade ties with the U.S.
as relations have soured badly since Trump's return to the White House in
January.

On the stock market, the Top-40 index closed about 0.6% higher.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker, with the yield up
3 basis points at 8.925%.

C ZAWYA 2025

Nigeria

Naira strengthens further against Dollar

THE Naira continued its upward trend on Wednesday, appreciating further at
the official market and closing at N1,596.70 to the U.S. dollar.

According to data released on the Central Bank of Nigeria's official
website, the local currency gained N3.33 against the dollar.

This improvement represents a 0.21 per cent appreciation compared to the
rate of N1,600.03 per dollar recorded at the close of trading on Tuesday.

The Naira had already shown signs of resilience earlier in the week, gaining
0.02 per cent on Tuesday against the dollar.

Analysts attribute the recent strengthening of the Naira to improved foreign
exchange liquidity and sustained interventions by CBN.

Market observers also note that increased confidence in monetary policy
reforms may be contributing to the currency's steady performance in recent
days.

In spite of ongoing economic challenges, the recent movements suggest
cautious optimism among traders and investors watching the foreign exchange
market.

The Naira's performance this week is being closely monitored as the country
continues efforts to stabilise its economy and attract foreign investment.
(NAN) 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar rebounds to edge higher, gains in Korea's won ease

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, rebounding from
earlier declines as investors await fresh signals that global trade battles
will continue to ease.

The dollar index began the week with a jump of more than 1% on Monday and
hit a one-month high as the United States and China reached a deal to
temporarily cut reciprocal tariffs and tamped down concerns that a trade war
between the world's two biggest economies could lead to a global recession.

The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global
trade and tariff news. Sign up here.

But the greenback fell on Tuesday after a gauge of consumer prices was below
economists' expectations as declining food costs partially offset rising
rents.

"Obviously, everything's still pretty focused on trade these days, that's
still kind of a big catalyst moving things around," said Brad Bechtel,
global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

"There's a lot of volatility in the Asian currency space still, but the
dollar should still be in a counter-trend bounce and then will ultimately
start to turn lower again, potentially on some sort of backdoor or
behind-closed-doors arrangement."

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of
currencies, rose 0.06% to 101.04, with the euro down 0.06% at $1.1177.

Investors were also digesting news South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister
Choi Ji-young met with Robert Kaproth of the U.S. Treasury on May 5 to
discuss forex markets, which helped send the dollar to its lowest in a week
against Korea's won.

But the moves in Asian currencies eased somewhat after Bloomberg reported
the U.S. is not negotiating for a weaker dollar as part of tariff talks,
citing a person familiar with the matter.

The won strengthened 0.84% against the dollar to 1,402.66 per dollar after
gaining as much as 2.1%. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened
0.52% to 146.71 after falling as much as 1.2% on the session.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients that while details of the
meeting are scarce and talks may be part of an ongoing dialogue, "it puts
renewed focus on the scope for undervalued trade surplus currencies to
appreciate in a weaker dollar environment."

In light of the easing trade tensions, markets have dialed back expectations
for rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, pricing in a 74%
chance for the first cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) at the central
bank's September meeting, according to LSEG data, compared with the prior
view for a cut in July.

Several major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Barclays,
have recently scaled back their U.S. recession forecasts and their view of
Fed policy easing.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said data showing temperate consumer
inflation in April does not necessarily reflect the impact of rising U.S.
import tariffs, and the Fed still needs more data to determine the direction
of prices and the economy.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson noted a similar sentiment, saying the recent
inflation data indicated good progress towards the central bank's 2% goal,
but the outlook is now uncertain due to the possibility that new import
taxes will drive prices higher.

Sterling weakened 0.32% to $1.3261. Bank of England interest rate-setter
Catherine Mann said she voted to keep borrowing costs on hold last week -
having sought a big 50-basis point cut in February - because Britain's labor
market had been more resilient than she expected.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold price selling bias remains unabated amid trade optimism, reduced Fed
rate cut bets

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday descent through the Asian
session on Thursday and drops to the $3,135 area, or a fresh low since April
10 in the last hour. Easing US-China trade tensions continues to drive flows
away from the safe-haven precious metal, which is further pressured by
reduced bets for fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The
US-China trade truce for 90 days eased concerns about a US recession and
forced investors to pare bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the
Fed. This continues to push the US Treasury bond yields higher and weighs on
the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) bulls remain on the sidelines, despite the
aforementioned supporting factors, and opt to wait for the release of the US
Producer Price Index (PPI) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance later
today. This, however, does little to lend any support to the Gold price.
Even a slight deterioration in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a
generally weaker tone around the equity markets - fails to ease the bearish
pressure surrounding the XAU/USD pair. Furthermore, a breakdown below key
technical levels favors bearish traders and supports prospects for a further
depreciating move for the commodity.

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bears not ready to given up amid
easing US-China trade tensions, rising US bond yields

The US and China agreed to slash steep tariffs for at least 90 days.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he could see
himself dealing directly with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the details of
a trade pact.

This helps to ease market concerns about a downturn in the world's largest
economy and drags the safe-haven Gold price to over a one-month low on
Thursday amid expectations of fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve.

Traders are now pricing in a little over 50 basis points of Fed rate cuts
for the year, down from over a full percentage point of reductions priced in
last month. This lifts the benchmark 10-US Treasury yield to its highest in
a month.

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that announced tariffs and the
uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy could derail any recent progress
on inflation. Jefferson added that the recent inflation data show further
progress toward the 2% target and described the current policy stance as
well-positioned to respond to developments that may arise.

Adding to this, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that some parts
of the April inflation report represent the lagged nature of the data, and
it will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data.
Goolsbee added that right now is a time for the US central bank to wait for
more information, try to get past the noise in the data.

Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that the US economy
and the labor market are solid, and inflation is declining. With monetary
policy moderately but not overly restrictive, the US central bank can wait
to adjust interest rates amid the uncertainty and respond to whatever comes
into the economy, Daly added further.

The US Dollar bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release
of the US Producer Price Index, due later during the North American session.
Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's appearance will be looked upon
for cues about the future rate-cut path, which will drive the USD and
provide a fresh impetus to the XAU/USD pair.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had said he would surely attend the first
peace talks with Russia, scheduled this Thursday in Istanbul. The Kremlin,
however, announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin will skip the
meeting.

The Israeli military said on Wednesday that it intercepted a missile
launched from Yemen towards its territory. In a further escalation of
violence in the region, an intense wave of Israeli bombing on Wednesday
killed as many as 80 people in Gaza. This keeps geopolitical risks in play,
though it does little to lend any support to the precious metal.

Gold price tests $3,135-3,133 support; seems vulnerable to slide further as
a breakdown below the 61.8% Fibo. comes in play

>From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $3,200
mark and a subsequent slide below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of
the strong move up in April could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish
traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining
negative traction, suggesting that the Gold price could extend the fall
further towards the $3,135-3,133 support. Some follow-through selling has
the potential to drag the XAU/USD pair further towards the $3,100 mark,
which, if broken, might expose the next relevant support near the $3,060
region.

On the flip side, attempted recovery above the $3,168-3,170 region (61.8%
Fibo. level) might now confront stiff resistance ahead of the $3,200 mark,
or the Asian session peak. Any further move up might now be seen as a
selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near
the $3,230 area, or the 50% retracement level. The latter should act as a
pivotal point, above which a fresh bout of short-covering move could lift
the Gold price to the $3,265 intermediate hurdle en route to the $3,300
round figure (38.2% Fibo. level).

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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