Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 May 2025

Fri May 23 08:45:12 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 May 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE extend gains in the penultimate

ZSE market extended gains in the penultimate session of the week as the
All-Share Index rose by 0.26% to settle at 195.00pts despite liquidity
challenges obtaining across the board. The Blue-Chip Index charged 0.34% to
188.70pts mainly anchored by gains in Econet. The Mid Cap rose by 0.04% to
241.31pts while, on the contrary the Agriculture Index retreated 0.04% to
191.38pts. Telecommunications giant Econet headlined the gainers list of the
day on a 2.45% increase to close at a VWAP $2.8076 with Mash Holdings
trailing behind on a 1.18% gain to $1.0725. Packaging company Proplastics
added 1.08% to $0.8592 while, mining concern Riozim edged up 0.32% to
$0.8025, following news about the company managing to temporarily fend off
the attachment of its assets due to debts. Nmbz capped the top 5 performers
of the day on a 0.07% rise to end at $3.7025. Partially weighing down the
markets was Zimpapers that plummeted 14.45% to $0.1318 as scrappy 400 shares
traded in the name while, Zimre

Holdings lost 4.18% to close at $0.3354. Retailer OkZim slipped 2.71% to
$0.3405 as dairy producer Dairibord shed 0.56% to close at $1.7000. Ecocash
capped the top five worst performers of the day on 0.38% descend to end at
$0.1300.

Activity aggregates were mixed in the session as volume traded increased by
138.32% to 30.69m while, turnover declined 18.14% to $39.05m. Activity was
mainly confined in Ecocash that contributed 81.60% of the aggregate traded.
Delta and Econet drove the turnover aggregates of the day as the duo claimed
a combined 88.40% of the total traded. The Tigere REIT inched up 4.33% to
$1.2729 on 4,941 units while, Revitus REIT added 0.14% to $0.5533. In the
ETF category, no price movements were recorded as Datvest MCS traded 10,000
units at $0.0300.-efesecurities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

AFRICA-FX-Ghana and Uganda currencies could gain

(Reuters) - The Ghanaian and Ugandan currencies are expected to strengthen
in the next week to Thursday, while Nigeria's could be stable and Kenya's
and Zambia's may fall, traders said.

GHANA

Ghana's cedi is expected to firm further, underpinned by strong
hard-currency inflows from remittances and continued central bank support.

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trade and tariff news. Sign up here.

LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.70 to the dollar on Thursday,
compared to 12.40 per dollar at last Thursday's close.

"The cedi continued its appreciation streak against the dollar, breaking the
12.00 key level on the interbank market," said Chris Nettey, head of trading
at Stanbic Bank Ghana.

"We expect further appreciation in the coming sessions, supported by central
bank's ongoing interventions," he added.

UGANDA

Uganda's shilling is seen trading with a firming tone, bolstered by
month-end foreign-currency inflows from non-governmental organisations.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,646/3,656 to the dollar, near last
Thursday's close of 3,645/3,655.

"The bias will be on the stronger side mainly from charity flows," a trader
said. Charities convert some of their hard-currency holdings around the end
of the month to meet operational expenses.

Nigeria's naira is seen holding steady after strengthening this week due to
foreign portfolio inflows for a central bank auction.

The naira was quoted around 1,590 to the dollar in intraday trading on
Thursday, compared with last week's quote of 1,596 naira.

The unit was sold at 1,620 naira to the dollar in street trading on
Thursday.

"I expect the naira to trade between 1,585 naira and 1,595 levels next
week," one trader said. "The uptick in crude prices and FPIs (foreign
portfolio inflows) this week ... helped liquidity in the market."

KENYA

Kenya's shilling is expected to weaken slightly towards the end of May, as a
modest increase in foreign exchange demand from the manufacturing sector
outpaces inflows from remittances and NGO salaries.

LSEG data showed the shilling at 129.00/50 on Thursday, the same level it
closed a week ago.

"We see the shilling weakening a little towards the end of the month on
month-end (FX) demand from importers in the manufacturing sector," a trader
said.

ZAMBIA

Zambia's kwacha is likely to remain under pressure as the market continues
to experience rising foreign-currency demand and subdued inflows.

On Thursday the kwacha was quoted at 27.62 per dollar from 27.00 a week ago.

"In the absence of substantial dollar supply, the current trend should
continue going into next week," an analyst said.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Frail dollar set to snap 4-week winning streak on US fiscal health worries

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was weaker on Friday, poised to make its first
weekly drop in five weeks against the euro and the yen as worries over the
United States' worsening fiscal health sent investors scurrying for safe
havens.

After Moody's last week downgraded its U.S. debt ratings, investor attention
this week has honed in on the country's $36 trillion debt pile and U.S.
President Donald Trump's tax bill that could add trillions of dollars more
to it.

The Reuters Tariff Watch newsletter is your daily guide to the latest global
trade and tariff news. Sign up here.

Dubbed by Trump as a "big, beautiful bill", it narrowly passed
Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and now heads to the
Senate for what is likely to be weeks of debate, keeping investor sentiment
fragile in the near term.

The euro rose 0.36% to $1.132 on Friday and is set for a 1.2% gain for the
week after four straight weeks of losses as a pause in tariffs buoyed the
dollar in recent weeks.

The euro, though, is up 9% in 2025, with the single currency emerging as the
early winner of the tariff-induced market tumult and investors fleeing the
dollar, looking for safer bets.

"This week we have seen a shift in the focus from tariffs to fiscal risks.
That has caused a lot of nervousness in the market," said Moh Siong Sim,
currency strategist at Bank of Singapore.

"The fiscal trajectory in the U.S. has gotten to a point where the market is
questioning whether 'can this go on?'."

The dollar index , which compares the U.S. currency against six other units,
including the yen and euro, is set for a 1.35% decline this week and was
down 0.3% at 99.614.

That's despite a steep selloff in U.S. Treasuries at the start of the week.
The 30-year bond yield stayed above 5% in Asian hours on Friday, hovering
near 19-month highs. It is close to October 2023's high of 5.179%, a break
past which would take it to its highest since mid-2007.

The elevated yield hasn't underpinned the dollar as investors flee U.S.
assets in a "Sell America" move similar to last month.

"What has become quite stark this week is the reaction function in broad
markets to the rise in U.S. long-end Treasury yields," said Chris Weston,
head of research at Pepperstone.

Weston said higher yields are not being driven by improved growth dynamics,
but by concerns of increasing fiscal recklessness, deficit spending and the
perception of higher interest expenses.

"Add in the toxic mix of higher inflation expectations ... and the net
effect has been a strong rise in 'term premium' and the would-be foreign
buyers simply staying out of the market."

The yen was strengthened to 143.47 per dollar, on course for a 1.5% rise for
the week, after Japan's core inflation accelerated at its fastest annual
pace in more than two years in April, raising the odds of another interest
rate hike by year-end.

The data underscores the quandary facing the Bank of Japan which must
grapple with price pressures from persistent food inflation as well as
economic headwinds from Trump's tariffs.

Super-long Japanese government bonds have also scaled record highs this
week, although they were steady on Friday.

The Swiss franc was slightly stronger at 0.8264 per dollar, also set for a
1.2% rise for the week after two weeks of losses.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar last fetched $0.6434, up 0.39%. Australia's
central bank on Tuesday cut its cash rate to a two-year low of 3.85%, citing
a darker global outlook and cooling inflation at home.

New Zealand dollar was 0.3% stronger at $0.5916, set for a 0.6% rise for the
week.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold trips down amid firm US Dollar, despite falling US yields

Gold price dropped some 0.48% on Thursday and failed to hold onto the $3,300
figure after reaching a two-week high of $3,345 earlier. A strong US Dollar
pressures the golden metal as US Treasury yields retreated from daily highs
as the US House of Representatives approved Trump's budget, which now will
be sent for approval to the Senate. XAU/USD trades at $3,289, down 0.83%.

The market mood has improved slightly but remains fragile as it was
sponsored by Moody's downgrade to US government debt. The fiscal package so
far approved by the US lower house is projected to add $4 trillion to the
debt ceiling.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck's value against a basket of
six currencies, has paired some of its previous weekly losses and is up a
modest 0.18% at 99.86, a headwind for the Dollar-denominated precious metal.

Nevertheless, the outlook for Bullion prices remains optimistic due to
geopolitical conflicts. Newswires revealed that Israel is preparing to
attack Iran's nuclear facilities if talks between the latter and the US
fall, according to Walla citing sources.

On the data front, S&P Global Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) in the US
improved, an indication that the economy remains solid. Earlier, the US
Department of Labor revealed that the number of Americans filing for
unemployment benefits edged lower compared to the prior reading and beneath
forecasts.

Bullion traders are eyeing the release of US housing data and Fed speakers
on Friday.

Gold daily market movers: Tumbles despite falling US yields on upbeat US
data

US Treasury bond yields halted their advance with the US 10-year Treasury
note yield falling three basis points (bps) to 4.55%. Meanwhile, US real
yields are also down four bps at 2.207%.

Gold prices will likely remain underpinned by a sour sentiment toward US
assets, namely the Greenback, equities and bonds. This was spurred by
controversial US trade policies, along with Moody's downgrading the US
government rating from AAA negative to AA1 stable and an approval of a US
budget that will increase the deficit.

The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash in May improved from 50.2 to 52.3,
exceeding estimates of 50.1. The Services Flash PMI for the same period rose
by 52.3, above forecasts and the previous reading of 50.8.

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 17 rose by 227K, down from
the prior's week 229K and below forecasts of 230K, indicating the labor
market remains solid.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that markets are monitoring fiscal
policy. He added that if tariffs are close to 10%, the economy would be in
good shape for H2, and the Fed could be in position to cut later in the
year.

Data from the Chicago Board of Trade suggests that traders are pricing in
50.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Retreats below $3,300 as bulls take a breather

Gold price retraces from weekly highs below $3,300 as traders booked profits
and demand for safe haven assets has diminished. Nevertheless, the overall
trend remains bullish, as confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI),
which remains above its 50-neutral line despite leaning on the downside.

Hence, XAU/USD first resistance would be $3,300 followed by $3,345, the
current weekly peak. Once breached, $3,400 is up next, and on further
strength $3,438, the May 7 swing high, would be up next.

For a bearish reversal, Gold bears must achieve a daily close below $3,300.
Once cleared, immediate support emerges at a May 20 daily low of $3,204,
ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,191.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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