Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 September 2025

Wed Oct 1 09:13:02 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 September 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE ends September in marginal gains...

The ZSE market ended the month of September in marginal gains. The primary All-Share Index grew 0.27% to close at 210.63pts while, the Blue-Chip Index added 0.15% to 206.67pts. The Mid Cap edged up 0.74% to 246.44pts while, on the contrary the Agriculture Index retreated 1.59% to 171.11pts. Brick manufacturer Willdale headlined the gainers' list of the day on a 63.27% jump to end pegged at $0.0354 as transport and logistics company Unifreight trailed on a 14.99% surge to settle at $2.1820 post release of its HY25 results in which it reported a PAT of ZWG202.36m. TSL Limited notched up 14.97% to $1.5245 while, BAT advanced 8.47% to $117.1515. Zimre Holdings capped the top five risers of the day as it went up 3.98% to close at $0.2386. Trading in the negative was Nampak which lost 14.99% to close at $0.7115 as banking group NMB Holdings followed on a 1.59% retreat to $4.0349. Mashonaland Holdings trimmed 1.53% to $1.4500 while, TN Cybertech parred off 0.81% to $0.1080. FML completed the top five fallers of the day on a 0.34% loss to finish at $2.8900.

Activity aggregates improved in the session as volumes traded ballooned 328.57% to 3.80m shares while, turnover soared 984.27% to $21.97m. NMB was the top volume and value driver claiming 77.19% of the former and 53.87% of the latter. Other notable value drivers of the day were Delta (24.22%), BAT (14.08%) and Econet (7.56%). The Datvest MCS eased 2.43% to $0.0293 while, Morgan & Co multi sector fell 0.50% to $1.9900. The Cass Saddle ETF gave up 0.17% to end at $0.1198. The Tigere REIT added a negligible 0.02% to $1.9990 on 1.98m units while, the Revitus REIT climbed 12.00% to $1.1200 on 500 units.- EFE RESEARCH

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand softer after back-to-back domestic data

(Reuters) - The South African rand softened on Tuesday after a flurry of mixed economic data from the central bank, revenue service agency, National Treasury and statistics agency.

At 1439 GMT the rand traded at 17.29 against the dollar , about 0.2% weaker than Monday's closing level.

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Data from the South African Reserve Bank showed that M3 money supply growth last month was at 6.18%, down from 6.75% in July. Credit growth for August came in at 5.86%, just above July's 5.84% and exceeding the 5.20% forecast in a Reuters poll.

The SARB also released a quarterly bulletin showing that the country recorded foreign direct investment outflows of 73.5 billion rand ($4.25 billion) in the second quarter of 2025, compared to inflows of 11.7 billion rand in the first quarter.

The statistics agency reported a decline in formal sector employment, with budget balance data further souring the mood as the National Treasury posted a deficit of 38.35 billion rand.

Trade balance numbers came in at 3.97 billion rand, less than the 18.25 billion rand expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40

Zambia

Stabilize Kwacha as you reinforce its use in local transactions

THE Bank of Zambia has announced that by the end of 2025 it will issue new regulations to reinforce the use of the Kwacha in domestic transactions. Businesses will still be allowed to quote prices in foreign currency, but all settlements must be made in Kwacha, with limited exemptions such as in the tourism sector or international obligations. Governor Dr Denny Kalyalya was quick to clarify that this is not a return to the suffocating days of exchange controls. The objective is simply to ensure that the Kwacha retains its rightful place as Zambia’s sole legal tender. On principle, this is commendable, and we can say that a country that abandons its own currency abandons its sovereignty. If government raises...

Nigeria

Naira Climbs to N1475, FX Inflow Rises to $981m

The Nigerian local currency, the naira, rose against the US dollar again at the official window, staying on track amidst growing bullish predictions.

The official exchange rate has maintained the momentum after it breached N1500 psychological barrier – now heading toward the next breakout.

Updated FX from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) revealed that the naira appreciated 0.07% to ₦1,475.34, demonstrating continued strong demand for the local currency.

The spot rate touched an intraday high of N1480 per dollar, versus N1486 in the previous day, which suggests the absence of FX pressures in the official window.

FX rate hit N1470, its lowest level during the day, as data showed that FX inflows surged to about $1 billion at the official window last week.

In the parallel market, the naira depreciated 0.28% to ₦1,502 per dollar. Naira’s performance was primarily driven by foreign portfolio inflows and improved supply from exporters. Currency exchange services

In a note, Coronation Merchant Bank Limited reported that FX inflows rose to US$984.10 million in the Nigerian foreign exchange market last week, compared with US$605.00 million in the prior week.

In terms of inflow composition, foreign portfolio investments accounted for the largest share at US$318.10 million, followed by exporters and non-bank corporates.

The supply side was bolstered by inflows from the CBN, foreign direct investments and other sources.

Oil prices were supported by a combination of falling US crude inventories and heightened geopolitical risks. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities have led Moscow to announce restrictions on fuel exports through to year end.Currency exchange services

Although the curbs apply to a relatively small share of refined product shipments, they highlight the ongoing vulnerability of Russia’s oil sector to attacks by Ukrainian forces.

Brent crude closed the week at US$70.13 per barrel, adding 5.17% on the week, the largest weekly move since June. The running year-to-date average settled at US$69.79/bbl, 12.60% below the average close in 2024.

Bonny Light closed the week at US$70.90/bbl. gaining 1.79% week on week. On Tuesday, Brent traded below $69.  #Naira Climbs to N1475, FX Inflow Rises to $981m#

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar slips to one-week low as US government shuts down

(Reuters) - The dollar sank to a one-week low versus major peers on Wednesday as the U.S. government entered a shutdown that is likely to delay the release of crucial jobs data.

Government funding expired at midnight in Washington (0400 GMT) after Republicans and Democrats failed to agree a last-minute interim deal.

Senate Republican Leader John Thune said the chamber would vote again on the House-passed measure on Wednesday. The Senate is due to convene at 1400 GMT.

The dollar index , which gauges the currency against six counterparts including the euro and yen, declined 0.2% to 97.635 as of 0521 GMT, and earlier dipped to 97.584 for the first time since last Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump warned congressional Democrats on Tuesday that letting the federal government shut down would allow his administration to take "irreversible" actions including closing programs important to them.

The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases in the event of a partial shutdown. That includes Friday's scheduled nonfarm payrolls release, which is seen by markets as key in determining whether a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is likely at the end of this month.

U.S. JOBS IN FOCUS

Overnight, a mixed reading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, pressured the dollar. The report showed U.S. job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labour market.

In the absence of official data, more emphasis will fall on private-sector economic indicators. The ADP employment report is due later on Wednesday.

The length of any shutdown may be key for markets, as the Fed's next policy decision on October 29 remains weeks away. Traders currently see a quarter-point cut then as a near certainty, with market-implied odds of around 95%, according to LSEG data.

"The USD will resume its fall today if the political discourse suggests an extended shutdown," said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"More weak U.S. economic data can add to the weight on the USD," he added.

The euro rose as much as 0.3% to $1.1767, the highest since September 24.

The dollar slipped 0.3% to touch 147.46 for the first time since September 19, adding to a three-day, 1.2% slide.

Traders largely ignored the release of the Bank of Japan's quarterly "tankan" corporate sentiment survey on Wednesday, even though central bank policymakers had flagged it as key to determining the timing of a resumption of rate hikes.

BOJ'S HAWKISH SHIFT

Confidence among big Japanese manufacturers improved for the second straight quarter and firms maintained their upbeat spending plans, the survey showed.

BOJ officials have tilted more hawkish in recent days, including formerly dovish board member Asahi Noguchi, who said on Monday that the need for policy tightening was increasing "more than ever."

BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida and Governor Kazuo Ueda are due to give speeches on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Traders currently lay 40% odds on a quarter-point rate increase in Japan on October 30, according to LSEG data.

"The BOJ does not actually appear especially worried about how Trump tariffs might affect the Japanese economy," said Yusuke Matsuo, senior markets economist at Mizuho Securities.

"The potential impact of Trump tariffs on the U.S. economy, meanwhile, looks to be the sole remaining stumbling block," he said.

The BOJ's rate decision this month "will ultimately hinge in greatest part on the central bank's degree of confidence vis-à-vis the trajectory of the U.S. economy," Matsuo added.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities

Gold hits record high as US shutdown, weak job data spur safe-haven rush

(Reuters) - Gold prices surged to a record high on Wednesday, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets after the start of the U.S. government shutdown and as soft labour data bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,860.13 per ounce, as of 0613 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $3,875.32.

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U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $3,887.40.

The dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab fell to an over one-week low, making greenback-priced gold more affordable for overseas buyers. Wall Street futures slipped.

Gold is benefiting from "concerns over a weaker dollar, and the political situation with the standoff about a government shutdown in the U.S. and also general geopolitical uncertainty," said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

He added that the outlook remains bullish, with upside targets pointing to $3,900-plus, possibly up to $4,000.

The U.S. government shut down much of its operations as deep partisan divisions prevented Congress and the White House from reaching a funding deal, setting off what could be a long, grueling standoff that could lead to the loss of thousands of federal jobs.

The shutdown could delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report due on Friday.

The JOLTS report on Tuesday indicated marginal growth in U.S. job openings in August, alongside a decline in hiring, with traders now pricing a 25-basis-point reduction this month and another in December. USDIRPR

The ADP National Employment Report, due later in the day, is expected to offer additional labor market insights.

Potential risks to gold's rally include an uptrend in the dollar, unexpected hawkish Fed policy shifts, and fiscal reforms in the United States, said Michael Hsueh, precious metals analyst, Deutsche Bank.

Gold, a traditional hedge against economic and political uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment due to its non-yielding nature. It has gained more than 47% this year.

Markets in China, the world's largest gold consumer, remained closed for the mid-autumn festival and will reopen on October 9.

Elsewhere, spot silver gained nearly 0.5% to $46.90 per ounce, hitting a more than 14-year high. Platinum fell 0.7% to $1,563.50, while palladium was down 0.9% at $1,245.43.

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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