Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 September 2025

Tue Sep 23 01:08:14 CAT 2025

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 September 2025

ZSE commentary

ZSE records a 0.39% gain in Monday's trades...

The ZSE market reversed Friday's losses as it rose by 0.39% to 207.40pts,
despite minimal activity witnessed across the board. The Blue-Chip Index was
0.41% firmer at 206.26pts mainly anchored by gains in Econet while, the Mid
Cap Index was 0.40% higher at 229.94pts. The Agriculture Index added 0.46%
to close at 167.47pts. Leading the risers of the day was sugar refiner Star
Africa that charged 9.54% to $0.0400, followed by TSL that garnered 8.12% to
end at a VWAP of $1.6896. Roofing material producer Turnall closed the day
pegged at $0.0502 following a 5.52% ascent while, telecommunications company
Econet gained 2.09% to $4.8050. Bankers ZB capped the top five risers of the
day as it ticked up 1.67% to $3.0500 on scrappy 100 shares. Partially
weighing down the market was Zimre Holdings that plunged 10.77% to $0.1902
while, financial services company ZSE eased 1.12% to $1.8095.

Activity aggregates faltered in the session as volumes traded fell by 73.31%
to 1.82m while, turnover was 86.96% lower at $7.73m. Driving the volume
aggregate of the day were TSL, NMB, Econet and CBZ with a combined aggregate
of 75.97%. Turnover drivers of the day were Delta (23.36%), Econet (21.68%),
CBZ (21.53%) and NMB (20.54%). In the REIT category, Tigere was up 0.37% at
$1.2510 as 44,815 units exchanged hands in the name. Elsewhere, dairy
processor Dairibord released its HY25 results for the half year ended 30
June 2025, in which it reported a PAT of US$1.21m which is a 61% decline
from prior comparable period. No dividend was declared as the milk processor
continued to deploy funds for capital expenditure.-

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa

South African rand steady ahead of economic data

The South African rand was little changed on Monday as traders looked to
this week's local data releases for further clues on the health of Africa's
biggest economy.

Those releases include a leading business cycle indicator, the producer
price index and the central bank's quarterly bulletin.

The rand traded at 17.33 against the dollar by 0825 GMT, within touching
distance of Friday's close.

The currency has held steady since last week's decision by the South African
Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain its main lending rate at 7%, taking a
cautious stance despite consumer inflation looking under control.

Nedbank economists expect the central bank's quarterly bulletin to report
improvement in household finances in the second quarter after they
deteriorated in the first three months of the year.

"The boost will come from higher wages and subdued inflation, which will
support disposable income, while lower interest rates will ease debt
burdens," Nedbank said in a research note.

Economists polled by Reuters expect year-on-year producer inflation of 1.5%
for August, unchanged from July.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top-40 index was also little changed on
Monday.

The benchmark 2035 government bond strengthened, with the yield down 3.5
basis points at 9.13%. 

Nigeria

Naira sustains year-to-date stability on $42bn external reserves, weekly
inflows

The naira has maintained an appreciation trajectory across official and
unofficial foreign exchange markets, buoyed by rising weekly inflows and
external reserves, which have grown to $42.03 billion mark this month.

Data published by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the naira
has strengthened by 3.5% year-to-date, with the dollar quoted at N1,488.60
on Monday, gaining N52.76 compared to N1,541.36 at the beginning of the
month at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM).

On a daily basis, however, the naira weakened slightly, losing 0.04% on
Monday from N1,487.89 at the close of trading on Friday at the NFEM.

At the parallel market, commonly referred to as the black market, the local
currency appreciated by 9.57% year-to-date, trading at N1,515 per dollar on
Monday, compared with N1,660 in January 2025.

Nigeria's external reserves have also risen, growing by 2.8% year-to-date to
$42.03 billion as of September 19, 2025, up from $40.88 billion recorded at
the start of the year.

Read also: Naira loses N9.88 to dollar amid rising external reserves

According to a review by Ayodeji Ebo, Managing Director and Chief Business
Officer at Optimus by Afrinvest, the naira strengthened by 10.8%
year-on-year, closing at N1,498.97 per dollar on September 19, 2025,
compared with N1,661.12 per dollar a year earlier at the official Nigerian
Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM). In the parallel market, it gained 9.2%
year-on-year, trading at N1,514 per dollar compared to N1,654 per dollar in
September 2024.

"For a currency long accustomed to double-digit annual depreciation, these
gains represent remarkable progress," Ebo said.

Ebo explained that three major structural shifts underpin the new trajectory
of the naira. The introduction of the B-Match FX platform in December 2024
has restored confidence by reducing opacity and speculation, allowing for
fairer price discovery and curbing the rent-seeking practices that plagued
Nigeria's FX markets for years.

The operations of the Dangote Refinery have also been pivotal, as petroleum
imports, which previously consumed between 30 and 40% of Nigeria's FX
demand, are easing, thereby reducing demand pressure on the dollar. This
single development, he noted, may prove to be one of Nigeria's most
consequential economic turning points.

In addition, stronger liquidity and rising reserves have served as anchors
of confidence. Average daily FX market turnover has risen by 53.9% to $317
million, while reserves have climbed 12.6% to $41.2 billion. Stronger
inflows from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), renewed
interest from foreign portfolio investors, and higher remittance inflows
have further strengthened Nigeria's external buffers.

While these gains are promising, Ebo cautioned that two realities must be
acknowledged. The naira's current stability is still policy-assisted rather
than productivity-driven, and without structural growth in non-oil exports
and industrial output, Nigeria remains vulnerable to oil price shocks and
global capital movements. He stressed that maintaining discipline is
critical, as any return to multiple exchange rates, opaque interventions, or
fiscal dominance could undermine the fragile progress achieved so far.

Looking ahead, he expects the naira to trade within a relatively narrow band
for the remainder of 2025, supported by stronger FX inflows from oil
revenues, more robust reserves, and continued efficiency from the B-Match
platform. Seasonal inflows, such as increased remittances during the
year-end festive period, are expected to provide additional support.
However, risks remain, including a potential sharp decline in oil prices,
unexpected fiscal challenges, or disruptions to foreign portfolio inflows,
which could test the resilience of the naira.

On balance, the outlook suggests more stability than volatility in the short
term, offering much-needed relief for investors and businesses making
forward plans.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar weakens against euro and Swiss franc as markets digest Fed speeches

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was poised to snap a three-day winning streak
against the euro and Swiss franc on Monday, as investors digested a barrage
of comments from Federal Reserve officials about its latest monetary policy
stance.

The dollar hovered near levels seen before last week's decision by the Fed
to begin cutting interest rates. The current pricing is consistent with the
central bank's messaging, which highlighted rising concerns over the U.S.
labour market as the key driver of policy, analysts said.

The Reuters Gulf Currents newsletter brings you the latest on geopolitics,
energy and finance in the region. Sign up here.

"The lack of significant data until Friday's core Personal Consumption
Expenditures (PCE) inflation release leaves investors open to rethinking Fed
rate cuts and the plan ahead," said Bob Savage, head of markets macro
strategy at BNY.

The dollar was last down 0.38% to 0.792 against the Swiss franc , on track
to snap three straight sessions of gains.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said he supported the
rate cut at last week's Fed meeting as a precautionary move to protect the
job market, but said there may be "limited room" for further reductions
given inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

Changes in immigration, tax and regulatory policies are set to drive down
underlying interest rates in the U.S., and make current monetary policy far
too restrictive for what the economy needs to keep inflation at the Fed's 2%
target, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday.

Miran last week dissented when the Fed cut the benchmark rate by a quarter
of a percentage point, saying that a half-point cut was warranted. Fed chair
Jerome Powell speaks in Rhode Island on Tuesday.

"This whole week seeing a relative dearth of data and with the US Q2
earnings season having largely ended, traders may struggle to find direction
for the better part of this week outside of worries about new "emergencies"
and in the forthcoming Fed speeches, starting today," Macquarie FX analyst
Thierry Wizman said in an investor note.

U.S. President Donald Trump criticised the Fed, urging the central bank to
cut interest rates more aggressively.

"Today is more of a consolidating day," said Marc Chandler, chief market
strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York. "We had a strong dollar bounce
after the FOMC meeting that has sort of stalled. I kind of thought we'd get
a bit more of dollar gains ahead of the next batch of jobs data. It's a
light economic week but what's of interest is that in the FOMC there's such
a wide dispersion of views and this week over half the Fed are speaking and
the highlight might be (Jerome) Powell tomorrow."

The euro was up 0.44% at $1.1796, poised to snap three consecutive sessions
of losses against the dollar.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of
currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.39% to 97.34. It is on
track to snap three straight sessions of gains.

The Swedish crown rose 0.75% to 9.356 versus the dollar before the central
bank policy meeting on Tuesday.

The dollar dropped 0.17% to 147.69 against the Japanese yen , poised for the
second straight session of losses.

The Bank of Japan's hawkish shift in rhetoric last week fuelled speculation
of a near-term rate hike but failed to support the currency.

Analysts said that political uncertainty ahead of the Liberal Democratic
Party leadership election scheduled for October 4 was a factor in the Bank
of Japan's caution over further rate hikes.

Sterling rose against the dollar on Monday as investors paused following
Friday's selloff driven by fiscal concerns.

The pound was up 0.37% at $1.3516.

The Australian dollar rose 0.12% to $0.6599, reversing losses in early
trade.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Gold heads Commodities

Gold slips Gold price ascends to new high, silver price at 14-year best

Gold rose by nearly 1% to set another all-time high on Monday, as persistent
political uncertainty and expectations of more US interest rate cuts
continue to fuel demand for the metal.

Spot gold surged to a record of $3,728.36 per ounce during the early hours
of trading. By 10:30 a.m. ET, it traded at $3,718.77 an ounce for an
intraday gain of 0.9%.

Meanwhile, US gold futures were 1.3% higher at $3,755.20 per ounce in New
York.

With Monday's move, gold has now risen by more than 41% in 2025. Central
bank purchases and strong investment demand remain the key drivers of this
rally, which could be traced back as far as 2022 when the Russia-Ukraine war
broke out.

According to data from Metals Focus, net purchases by global central banks
have exceeded 1,000 metric tons each year since 2022. The consultancy
expects them to maintain this strong buying and add another 900 tons this
year - twice the annual average of 457 tons during 2016-2021.

Meanwhile, after a typical seasonal dip in UK gold buying, central bank
demand has rebounded to 63 tonnes, matching the post-2022 average and adding
to bullish sentiment, Societe Generale said in a note on Monday.

Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also seeing continued inflows, with
total holdings standing at 3,615.9 tons at the end of June, the largest
since August 2022, the World Gold Council estimates. Their record was 3,915
tons five years ago.

"There's a continued flow of safe haven demand amid geopolitical matters
that are still kind of wobbly, including the Russia-Ukraine war," Jim
Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, commented in a Reuters note.

"Last week's Fed interest rate cut and probably more Fed rate cuts coming by
the end of the year are also supporting prices," he added.

Investors are closely watching a series of Fed speeches this week, including
remarks from Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, for fresh signals on the
central bank's monetary policy path. The US core personal consumption
expenditure price data, due this Friday, is also in focus.

Silver keeps going

Silver, seen as a much cheaper alternative to gold as a safe-haven
investment, has also been soaring.

On Monday, prices rose again to $43.81 per ounce for a new 14-year high.
This takes its year-to-date gain to almost 50%, surpassing that of gold.

"Silver may yet find fresh upside as investors cast their sights beyond
record-high gold prices," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Nemo.money, told
Reuters. "With the gold-silver ratio currently around 86, still above its
five-year average of 82, silver may yet have more room to catch up on its
more illustrious precious metals cousin."

INVESTORS DIARY 2025

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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