Bullish Thoughts: - 25 September 2019 :: Optimism on the fortunes of Zimbabwe testers to the limit?

[Bulls n' Bears]

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

Bullish Thoughts is a perennial optimist. He believes there is a better life, outcome, economy ahead.

 

However, things are coming to a head and that optimism faces serious prospects of being extinguished. Endless fuel queues, buying cash (bond notes) at a whopping 60% premium, running on generator because of unreliable power supplies.

 

Why is it that if one is in the most remote part of the country, ballot papers will find you but even if you are in the CBD like even Harare, basic services won’t even get to you. Bullish Thoughts had always read of stories about Surbubs that had not seen water in decades…

 

What he never imagined was the whole of Harare going for days without water.

 

All economic things that can go wrong are doing so and directly impacting on Bullish Thoughts.

 

There are huge economic losses that are happening at both the corporate and national levels from lost productive times as employees spend endless hours queuing for fuel, cash among other things and not even productive work for the prime of a typical working working day

 

An account freeze which is not a freeze

There were account freezes that market analysts are beginning  to say there was no freeze as the Alternative currency market rates begin to see a rapid depreciation of the ZWL.

 

What amazes Bullish Thoughts is that the state actors create the problem (create and disburse the electronic money) and act surprised when bad money begins chasing the good money and the rate collapses.

 

Why create a problem with a view to solve it? Political expedience perhaps?

 

One can only hope that Treasury will regain control of the TSP.

 

Lost Generation

Bullish Thoughts almost ran out fuel Tuesday and had to do the uncanny route of buying an emergency kit from the “hustlers” by Puma 7th.

 

5 liters of petrol was going for USD10 before negotiation. This translates to about ZWL29.64/liter vs the official price of ZWL11.55/ litre, represent a profit of 156% per liter. In USD official pricing translates to USD0.779/per liter and against a selling price of USD2 per liter. That’s a healthy return in real terms and if the currency is traded on the Alternative Market, the ZWL is even much more attractive 

 

These are youngsters doing these transactions or this Harare hustle. If they are not selling fuel, they are currency traders/ runners.

 

Bullish Thoughts is of the strong view that even if things normalize in the nation, this group of entrepreneurs will never want to work formally. It’s good and bad. It’s good they can eke out a living on their own and be self sustaining. The downside is that not many will graduate their enterprises to employment creation for the wealth creation ecosystem.

 

This is the sort of thing that demotivates the people in the formal sector employment.

 

And Bullish Thoughts is just a couple of years older than these “youthies” and went through the crisis of 2004, 2007-2000 and now again so his generation is more like collateral damage from the economic mismanagement most will need to stage a Colonel Sanders moment to make a difference in their lifetime

 

 

 

The sad part is that the authorities keep on playing the same movie over and over again and somehow expecting a different ending. As Albert Einstein once said: “The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them.”

 

 

 

The President’s Gatekeepers…

There seems to be a script for Southern Africa about state capture.

 

It’s increasingly looking like we are gonna need our own version of the Zondi Commission in Zimbabwe in the not so distant future. Bullish Thoughts will also be immersing himself into his copy of The President’s Keepers by Jacques Pauw and The Republic of Gupta by Pieter-Louis Myburgh all looking at former SA President, Jacob Zuma.

 

Maybe he might get a better appreciation of the Zimbabwe political economy for it seems the South African movie is beginning to play in Zimbabwe.

 

 

 

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears

 

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