Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 04 December 2021

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 04 December 2021 

 


 

 


 <https://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


ü  US jobs growth falls far short of expectations

ü  Selfridges set for £4bn sale to Thai retail giant

ü  Why Turkey's currency crash does not worry Erdogan

ü  Shell pulls out of Cambo oil field development

ü  How to spot the software that could be spying on you

ü  Wall St Week Ahead Hawkish Fed boosts value stocks' appeal for some investors

ü  Bitcoin extends downtrend, falls 12.1% to $47,176

ü  Faster Fed taper, earlier rate hikes in sight as unemployment falls

ü  Goldman Sachs launches green finance group with Beijing think tank

ü  IMF chief Georgieva tells creditors on debt restructuring: 'Get it done'

ü  Africa: A False Start for Africa's Free Trade Deal?

ü  Nigeria: Direct Remittances Drops By 62.4% to U.S.$1.96 Billion In 10 Months

ü  South Africa: UCT Urged to Urgently Divest From Fossil Fuels

ü  Namibia: Dunn Appointed As Second Deputy BoN Governor

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

US jobs growth falls far short of expectations

US employers hired only 210,000 more workers in November, missing economists' predictions for stronger growth.

 

Forecasters had been expecting US non-farm payrolls to increase by 550,000.

 

However, the unemployment rate dropped sharply to 4.2% and more Americans returned to the work force.

 

The mixed jobs data does not reflect the emergence of the Omicron variant at the end of November which could affect the economic recovery.

 

President Joe Biden described the jobs recovery as "very strong," despite the disappointing headline figure.

 

"Today's historic drop in unemployment rate includes dramatic improvements for workers," he said.

 

The rate dropped from 4.6% in October.

 

Wages also rose month on month and many employers have been offering additional improvements to working conditions to attract scarce labour.

 

"The trend is in the right direction," said Diane Swonk chief economist at Grant Thornton. "The overall labour market is healing much more rapidly than we expected despite the miss in payrolls."

 

She said the apparent contradiction between sharply falling unemployment and slower than anticipated jobs growth lay in the way each was measured, through two different surveys with one covering households and the other based on employers' data.

 

Omicron

The outlook for the US economy is set to be complicated by the arrival of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus.

 

"The new coronavirus Omicron variant, which has yet to fully establish itself in the US, is still the real unknown variable in relation to the pace of the jobs recovery," said Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments.

 

Combined with the weaker-than-expected jobs data, Omicron was likely to delay the point at which the Federal Reserves would raise interest rates, he added.

 

"This weak reading today shifts the narrative of the first hike coming earlier next year to perhaps a bit later now," he said.

 

Retail, leisure and hospitality in particular did not see an increase in hiring on the scale that was expected.

 

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics said there had been a decline in employment in the retail sector, after seasonal adjustment, of 20,000, especially in general merchandise and clothing stores.

 

Employment in leisure and hospitality rose only 23,000 and remains nearly 8% lower than before Covid hit.

 

But on the upside, it said there had been a rise in hiring across areas such as professional and business services as well as transport and warehousing.

 

The bureau also said construction and manufacturing had added new jobs.

 

Joe Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade, said the low rate of hiring overall and the sharp fall in unemployment didn't "add up" and he expected the figures to be revised upwards.

 

He said the sectors "that don't truly make sense" are leisure and hospitality rising by such a small amount, and retail being down, "which is very odd for this time of year", he said.

 

In September, children returned to schooling in-person and pandemic-related unemployment benefits stopped, leading many analysts to expect strong jobs growth throughout the autumn.

 

Figures for October were revised up to show 546,000 jobs were added that month.

 

However, millions of Americans have still not returned to work, leaving the total workforce significantly smaller than it was before the pandemic. Commonly cited reasons are difficulties with childcare and concerns around Covid infection.

 

Despite an increase in the numbers of people in work or looking for work, known as the participation rate, there are still 3.9 million fewer people in the workforce compared to February 2020.

 

As a result many employers have struggled to recruit the staff they need, and have raised wages or offered other perks to attract and retain workers.-BBC

 

 

 

Selfridges set for £4bn sale to Thai retail giant

Selfridges' Oxford Street store once had 100 departments, including a library and shooting range.

Luxury department store group Selfridges is set to be sold to a Thai conglomerate for up to £4bn.

 

The UK retailer owns 25 outlets, including a huge flagship store in London's Oxford Street, and branches in Dublin, the Netherlands and Canada.

 

Selfridges' owner, the Weston family, agreed sale terms with Central Group in the last few days, according to the Times, which first reported the deal.

 

Selfridges was founded in 1908 by US retail magnate Harry Gordon Selfridge.

 

It has been owned by the billionaire Westons for 18 years.

 

The Weston family put the chain up for sale in June, a few months after the death of Galen Weston, who oversaw the move to take the department store private in 2003.

 

The family control Selfridges through Wittington Investments Ltd, in Canada, which is separate from the UK arm of the same name that owns a large stake in Primark-owner Associated British Foods.

 

Central Group is a family-owned conglomerate that started in Bangkok but went global when the founder's son, Samrit Chirathivat, opened Thailand's first department store in 1956.

 

It now has 3,700 shops around the world, from supermarkets to electronics outlets, and department stores in Europe.

 

Central Group's non-executive director Vittorio Radice ran Selfridges between 1996 and 2003 and has been managing a department store in Italy since 2006. His role includes responsibility for expansion in Europe.

 

A division of the group, Central Retail, sparked confusion about whether a Selfridges sale had fallen through when it issued a short stock exchange announcement that it was "not currently involved" with a deal.

 

However, it is understood the Westons, one of Canada's richest families, are in talks with a different arm of the giant Central Group company.

 

It is unclear why the family has decided to sell, although like many retailers the business has suffered during lockdown and the absence of high-end tourists in city centres.

 

The business had sales of almost £2bn in the year to February 2020, but when more recent accounts are published they are likely to show a big fall.

 

Selfridges declined to comment, and Central Group could not be reached.-BBC

 

 

 

Why Turkey's currency crash does not worry Erdogan

Turkey's national currency has plummeted 45% against the dollar this year and yet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan doesn't seem all that bothered.

 

The lira has flirted with record lows this week, but Turkey's long-time leader is pressing ahead with his "economic war of independence", backed up by low interest rates.

 

So why is Mr Erdogan pushing a model that critics warn risks soaring inflation, higher unemployment and poverty, and what does it mean for Turks?

 

Unorthodox policy

The simple reason for the Turkish lira's collapse is his unorthodox economic policy of keeping interest rates low to boost Turkey's economic growth and export potential with a competitive currency.

 

For many economists, if inflation goes up you control it by raising interest rates. But Mr Erdogan sees interest rates as "an evil that make the rich richer and the poor poorer".

 

"Everything is so expensive," Sevim Yildirim told the BBC at a local fruit market. "It's impossible even to cook a main course for a family with these prices."

 

Annual inflation has surged above 21% in Turkey, but the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, overhauled by Mr Erdogan, has just lowered interest rates from 16% to 15%, the third cut this year.

 

Turkey's soaring inflation. .  .

Inflation is rising around the world, and central banks are talking about hiking interest rates. But not here, because Mr Erdogan believes ultimately inflation will fall.

 

In the past two years he has sacked three central bank presidents and only this week replaced his finance minister. And so the lira continues to drop.

 

Turkey's economy is heavily dependent upon imports for producing goods from foods to textiles, so the rise of the dollar against the lira has a direct impact on the price of consumer products.

 

Take the tomato, a vital ingredient in Turkish cuisine. To grow tomatoes, producers need to buy imported fertilisers and gas.

 

Tomato prices were up 75% in August, compared with the year before, according to the chamber of commerce in the south coast agricultural hub of Antalya.

 

"How can we make money out of this?" asks Sadiye Kaleci, who farms grapes in Pamukova, a small town three hours' drive from Istanbul. "We sell cheap, but buying costs are expensive," she complains, citing high costs of diesel, fertiliser and sulphur, which is thrown on the vines.

Another farmer, Feride Tufan, complains the only way she can get by is by selling her assets: "We can pay off our debt by selling our land and vineyards. But when we sell everything, we'll have nothing left."

 

The currency has become so volatile that prices are changing daily. Inflation for producers alone is up 50%.

 

"I've cut down on all my expenses," says Hakan Ayran, out shopping at a market. "To pay the bills everybody eats less and nobody buys stuff."

 

Supermarket employees post price hikes on social media, showing before and after labels for products.

 

They range from margarine (above) and olive oil to tea, coffee, detergent and toilet paper.

 

A bakery in Turkey's third city, Izmir, put up a sign explaining its higher prices by listing surging costs of ingredients such as flour, oil and sesame, signing off with the message: "May God be with us."

 

Foreign currency debt is a problem for the private sector and most companies have found it is more profitable to hold products in storage rather than sell them, because of the lira's volatility and inflation.

 

It all adds up to more poverty and a widening gap in income and wealth equality.

 

Angry young Turks

Queues form outside petrol stations and outside local government offices offering cheap bread.

 

And opposition parties have called for snap elections and rallies. When the lira slumped 18% in one day on 23 November, there were small protests and dozens of arrests.

 

But the most visible display of public dissent is among younger Turks on Twitter, Twitch live streams, TikTok videos and YouTube.

 

"I am not happy with this government at all. I cannot see a future for myself in this country," one young person told a reporter from a YouTube channel.

 

One in five young people in Turkey is out of work; it is even worse among women.

 

Turkey has the world's fourth highest rate of youth not in employment, education or training, according to the OECD.

 

Turkey's youth compare their living standards with those in other countries and do not like what they see.

 

"For a young person in the US or Europe, it's easy to buy an iPhone with their salary," says one 18-year-old. "Even if I work for months and months, I cannot afford it. I don't deserve that."

 

This generation is poised to play an important role in politics in Turkey, ruled by Mr Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) since 2002.

 

Almost nine million Turks born since the late 1990s will be eligible to vote in the next election in 2023 and that could spell trouble for the AKP.

 

One video that went viral showed a mother praising President Erdogan to a reporter, while her eight-year-old son contradicted her, pointing out his poor handling of recent disasters.

 

'Impossible to guess'

The ruling party's success was partly down to a flood of foreign funding after the 2008 financial crisis.

 

But much of Turkey's economic growth came from government spending and lending that favoured the construction industry.

 

As a result production continues to depend on imports and the economy is at the mercy of currency fluctuations.

 

Few hold out hope of Mr Erdogan's new economic model coming to the rescue of the Turkish lira.

 

Amid such uncertainty, economist Arda Tunca says all bets are off for what happens next.

 

"This is the first time we're using a model completely beyond economic theory. Even when there were crises we could guess what would happen. Now it's impossible," he said.-BBC

 

 

 

Shell pulls out of Cambo oil field development

Oil giant Shell has pulled out of the controversial Cambo oil field development west of Shetland.

 

The company had a 30% stake in the field, which has faced sustained criticism from environmental groups.

 

Shell said the economic case for investment in the North Atlantic project was "not strong enough".

 

Majority stakeholder Siccar Point Energy said it would continue talks with the UK government over the future of the field.

 

Shell said it had carried out "comprehensive screening" before reaching a decision to "ensure the best returns for the business".

 

A spokesperson said: "The economic case for investment in this project is not strong enough at this time, as well as having the potential for delays.

 

"However, continued investment in oil and gas in the UK remains critical to the country's energy security.

 

"We believe the North Sea - and Shell in it - has a critical role to play in the UK's energy mix, supporting the jobs and skills to enable a smooth transition to Britain's low-carbon future."

 

The Cambo oil field is situated approximately 125km (75 miles) to the west of Shetland in water depths of between 1,050m (3,445ft) and 1,100m (3,609ft).

 

It was originally licensed for exploration in 2001 and could yield hundreds of millions of barrels of oil.

 

If approved by the Oil and Gas Authority, drilling could start as early as 2022 - and continue for 25 years.

 

Project leader Siccar Point Energy said the development "remains critical" to the UK's economy and energy security.

 

CEO Jonathan Roger said: "Whilst we are disappointed at Shell's change of position, we remain confident about the qualities of a project.

 

"It will not only create over 1,000 direct jobs as well as thousands more in the supply chain, but also help ease the UK's transition to a low carbon future through responsibly produced domestic oil.

 

"Given Shell's decision, we are now in discussions with our contractors, supply chain and wider stakeholders to review options."

 

This puts the Cambo oil field in serious doubt but despite the predictions of environmentalists, it doesn't yet kill it off.

 

It's clear from reading between the lines that it's becoming too much of a reputational liability for Shell.

 

But the majority of the North Sea is no longer operated by the traditional big oil and gas giants.

 

Investors - whose driver is the bottom line - are playing an increasing role.

 

And that means that if the sums work as they still might, someone else could still swoop in to take Shell's share.

 

Trade body OGUK said investor confidence in oil and gas "remains essential".

 

External relations director Jenny Stanning said: "This is a commercial decision between partners, but doesn't change the facts that the UK will need new oil and gas projects if we are to avoid increasing reliance on imports."

 

But climate campaigners said Shell's announcement signalled "the beginning of the end" for new oil and gas projects.

 

Friends of the Earth Scotland's Caroline Rance said: "People power has made the Cambo development so toxic that even oil giant Shell doesn't want to be associated with it.

 

"Both the UK and Scottish Governments must now officially reject Cambo, say no to any future oil and gas developments in UK waters and get on with planning a fair and fast transition for people working in this industry."

 

Last month First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said Cambo "should not get the green light".

 

She had previously called for the development to be reassessed, but had stopped short of opposing it outright.

 

But she told MSPs: "I don't think we can go on extracting oil and gas forever, and I don't think we can continue to give the go-ahead to new oil fields."

 

The decision on whether drilling gets the go-ahead rests with UK authorities.

 

The UK government said that despite moves to renewable energy sources, "there will continue to be ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming years".

 

The Scottish government said that unlimited extraction of fossil fuels is "not consistent with our climate obligations".

 

A spokesperson added: "We continue to call on the UK Government, who have the power to act in this instance, to urgently re-assess all approved oil licenses where drilling has not yet commenced against our climate commitments."-BBC

 

 

 

How to spot the software that could be spying on you

Maria says she grew up in a "loving" Catholic family on the east coast of America, with large Sunday dinners a weekly staple. Her parents had a good marriage and she wanted that respect and closeness in her own relationship.

 

When she met her husband in her early twenties, it felt like love.

 

But romance quickly soured, turning in to a 25-year tale of abuse and control. First there was the name-calling. Then, complete control of her finances, her movements, and eventually over their three sons.

 

Her husband objected to her having a job where she would interact with other people and he banned her from using the computer.

 

"He would call me fat every day, he would barricade me out of the house when he was angry" she recalls.

 

Eventually, the financial abuse ramped up. First, he would take away her paycheque from her cleaning job, then, he applied for credit cards in Maria's name using her social security number.

 

Six years ago, Maria finally broke down when she heard him say he wanted her dead. With the help of her church and family she slowly formulated an escape plan.

 

After losing their property to foreclosure, she eventually moved in with her sister. She got a laptop for the first time and finally had the freedom to set up a Facebook account. She started dating.

 

But soon, her ex-husband would quote her messages to a man she was seeing. Her ex also started turning up wherever she was.

 

She would suddenly spot him driving behind her on a motorway. Once, she was so terrified that he was chasing her and could possibly pull a gun, that she called the police.

 

Although she didn't press charges, the stalking eventually subsided and she moved further away. But she found out she had been a victim of so-called stalkerware.

 

Stalkerware is commercially available software that's used to spy on another person via their device - usually a phone - without their consent.

 

It can allow the user to view someone else's messages, location, photos, files, and even eavesdrop on conversations in the phone's vicinity.

 

To help tackle the problem Eva Galperin formed the Coalition Against Stalkerware in 2019.

 

She decided to set up the group after looking into reports from a number of alleged rape victims, who were terrified their lives could continue to be ruined by their abuser using tech. When someone has access to your phone the potential for exploitation is huge, she explains. For example a victim could be blackmailed with threats to share intimate photos.

 

Ms Galperin says that in the domestic abuse cases she encounters, "some level of tech-enabled abuse is almost universally there", and that this often includes stalkerware.

 

"It's often linked to the most violent cases - because it is such a powerful tool of coercive control," she adds.

 

Research suggests that proliferation of stalkerware is a growing problem: A study by Norton Labs found that the number of devices indicating that they had stalkerware installed rose by 63% between September 2020 and May 2021.

 

Its report suggested the dramatic increase could be due to the effect of lockdowns and people generally spending more time at home.

 

"Personal belongings are easily within arm's reach, likely creating more opportunities for perpetrators of tech-enabled abuse to install stalkerware on their partner's devices," the report found.

 

Over the last two years, Ms Galperin has managed to convince a clutch of anti-virus companies to take this type of malicious software more seriously, this followed an initial reluctance to mark stalkerware as an unwanted programme - or malware - because of its possible legitimate uses.

 

In October, Google removed several adverts for applications that encourage prospective users to spy on their partner's phone. These apps are often marketed at parents wishing to monitor their child's movements and messages - but have instead been repurposed by abusers to spy on their spouses.

 

One of those apps, SpyFone, was banned by the US Federal Trade Commission in September for harvesting and sharing data about people's movements and activities via a hidden device hack.

 

Despite these positive moves, some stalkerware apps, and advice on how to use them, are still easily accessible online.

 

According to Ms Galperin, the next issue the FTC is investigating are firms selling and purchasing phone location data of users without their knowledge. She calls this tech "an extremely powerful tool" for private investigators, who use it to track their targets' locations.

 

With stalkerware deliberately designed to be difficult to spot, even those who are more tech savvy can still fall prey to it.

 

One such person was Charlotte (not her real name), a senior cybersecurity analyst.

 

Soon after she got engaged she slowly realised odd things had started happening to her phone. The battery would quickly drain and her phone would suddenly restart - both tell-tale signs of stalkerware being potentially installed on her device.

 

It wasn't until her partner made it clear that he always knew where she was, that she finally connected the dots.

 

To get some advice on what to do, she went to a hacker meet-up. It was an industry her partner worked in and she was familiar with some of the faces.

 

She was shocked to discover a "culture of acceptance of being able to track your partner".

 

The "tech bro" environment she encountered spurred her to move into cybersecurity, to bolster the industry's "representation from different perspectives".

 

A quick internet search reveals many services claiming they can hack into someone's smartphone with just a phone number, usually for a few hundred dollars to be paid in cryptocurrency.

 

However, while software with those capabilities may be accessible to law enforcement agencies, the cybersecurity experts believe these websites are likely scams. Instead, consumer grade stalkerware largely relies on "social engineering," which Charlotte says people can learn to be careful about.

 

The target might be sent a text message, which looks plausible, inviting them to click on a link.

 

Or a bogus app, masquerading as a legitimate, one might be shared with them.

 

Charlotte says "don't be scared" if you try to delete a suspicious app and it throws up a lot of warnings.

 

"Sometimes they use scare tactics to get the users not to remove the software. They use a lot of social engineering techniques."

 

If all else fails, Charlotte recommends doing a factory reset of your phone, changing all of your social media account passwords and using two-factor authentication all the time.

 

So, what would be the best way of tackling the problem?

 

Most countries already have some sort of wiretapping statute and anti-stalking laws in place.

 

For example, in 2020, France introduced a new bill on domestic violence which, among others, reinforced sanctions on secret surveillance: geo-tracking someone without their consent is now punishable with one year's imprisonment and a fine of €45,000 (£38,000; $51,000). If this is done by your partner, the fines are potentially even higher.

 

Ways forward

But, for Eva Galperin, this is not a problem that we can ever expect new legislation to solve entirely.

 

She thinks that both Google and Apple could, for instance, take action by making it impossible to buy any of these apps on their stores.

 

Crucially, she adds, the focus has to be on better training for the police to take the problem more seriously.

 

One of the biggest issues she says she sees is that "survivors come to law enforcement, expect them to enforce the law and essentially get 'gaslit', and told that there's no problem".

 

The proliferation of cyber-stalking has also brought about a new type of service to support domestic abuse victims.

 

Clinic To End Tech Abuse - CETA - is one such facility, associated with Cornell University in the US. CETA works directly with abuse survivors, whilst at the same time gathering research about burgeoning tech misuse.

 

Rosanna Bellini from CETA says that occasionally they might not recommend removing stalkerware from the victim's phone immediately - without doing some safety planning first with a case worker. Past experience has informed this approach: if an abuser's access to the victim's phone is suddenly cut, it can lead to an escalation of violence.

 

For Maria, who has been free from her abusive marriage for six years, things are not perfect but they are looking up.

 

"I'm in a good relationship with someone who really cares about me and actually is behind me, telling my story," she says.

 

There are still times she gets anxious about her phone. She was diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). But she wants other survivors to know that cyber-stalking is huge and that they are not alone.

 

"Don't be scared. There is help out there. I've made huge strides and if I can do it at my age - at 56 - anyone can do it."-BBC

 

 

 

Wall St Week Ahead Hawkish Fed boosts value stocks' appeal for some investors

(Reuters) - Some investors are preparing for a hawkish turn from the Federal Reserve by buying the cyclical, economically-sensitive names they gravitated to earlier this year, as expectations grow that the central bank is zeroing in on fighting inflation.

 

The gap between growth stocks and their value-focused counterparts, which include companies like banks, financials and energy firms, has fluctuated throughout the year, driven in part by bets on how quickly the Fed will normalize monetary policy.

 

In recent days, signs that the central bank will move faster than expected in the face of surging consumer prices have slammed the shares of growth and technology companies, which have also been roiled by broader market volatility stemming from concerns over the spreading Omicron variant of the coronavirus. read more

 

At the same time, some investors have been ramping up bets on so-called value stocks, expecting them to perform better in an environment of tightening monetary policy. Such stocks surged earlier in 2021 as the U.S. economy reopened but faltered later as investors gravitated toward tech shares. read more

 

“The Fed brings the punch bowl and they are the ones that remove the punch bowl,” said Michael Antonelli, strategist at Baird. “Markets are quickly repricing their view of the future.”

 

Futures on the federal funds rate, which track short-term interest rate expectations, late Friday reflected a roughly 50% chance that the Fed will raise rates from its current near-zero level by May, CME's Fed Watch tool showed. That compared with around 31% in early November.

 

Driving those bets are comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who earlier this week said the central bank will likely in its next meeting discuss speeding the unwind of its $120 billion-per-month government bond-buying program. read more

 

Powell also said the word "transitory" was no longer appropriate to describe the current high inflation rate.

 

Stronger-than-expected elements in Friday’s U.S. employment report reinforced the view of a more hawkish Fed and weighed on growth stocks. read more

 

Among the casualties was the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK.P), which outperformed all other U.S. equity funds last year due to its outsized bets on so-called stay-at-home stocks. Shares of the fund tumbled 5.5% on Friday to a 13-month low amid steep declines in many of the stocks it holds. read more

 

The Russell 1000 Growth index is down 2.4% in the first three days of December, while its value-focused counterpart has risen by nearly 0.9%. The indexes are up 21.1% and 16.6%, year-to-date, respectively.

 

“The internals of the market are starting to reflect a faster rate hiking cycle and it's the longer-duration growth stocks that are really selling off," said Spenser Lerner, head of Multi Asset Solutions at Harbor Capital Advisors.

 

Higher yields - which can result from expectations of more aggressive Fed policy - can weigh even more on tech and growth stocks with lofty valuations, as they threaten to erode the value of their longer-term cash flows.

 

At the same time, value and cyclical shares tend to benefit from a stronger economy - often a prerequisite for the Fed to tighten monetary policy.

 

Lerner is focusing on high-quality, cyclical U.S. large-cap companies that do not trade at high valuations and will benefit from what he expects will be a continuing strengthening of the dollar as the Fed gets closer to raising rates.

 

Among the data points the Fed will be watching in the week ahead will be the release of consumer price index and core inflation readings next Friday. read more

 

Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist with Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, said Powell's openness to accelerating the Fed's tapering program will likely bring more volatility in the coming months as investors position for the possibility of rising rates. He is betting the faster removal of Fed support will lift shares of energy firms and financials.

 

Not everyone believes the Fed is getting set for rate increases in 2022. Burns McKinney, a senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group, is betting the Fed will not rush to hike rates after unwinding its bond buying but instead gauge the strength of the economy without any monetary support before tightening policy in 2023.

 

Such an outcome could see the Fed allowing inflation to continue running hot for months, boosting the case for buying cyclical companies such as Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) and Honeywell International Inc (HON.O), which have a history of growing their dividends and may benefit from the Democratic-led infrastructure deal that passed Congress in early November.

 

"If the Fed hadn't retired the word 'transitory,' all the rest of us had," McKinney said.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Bitcoin extends downtrend, falls 12.1% to $47,176

(Reuters) - Bitcoin dived 12.14% to $47,176.09 on Saturday, losing $6,567.6 from its previous close.

 

Bitcoin, the world's biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, is down 31.6% from the year's high of $69,000 reached on Nov. 10.

 

Ether , the coin linked to the ethereum blockchain network, dropped 10.14 % to $3,794.61 on Saturday, losing $428.19 from its previous close.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

Faster Fed taper, earlier rate hikes in sight as unemployment falls

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve policymakers look likely to accelerate the winddown of their bond-buying program when they meet later this month as they respond to a tightening labor market and move to open the door to earlier rate hikes than they had projected.

 

U.S. employers added 210,000 jobs last month, a U.S. Labor Department report showed Friday, less than half of what economists had expected. But average hourly earnings over the past 12 months rose 4.8%, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, and the workforce grew by the most in 13 months. Analysts said they believe the moderate job gains understate labor market strength and that they would likely be revised upward.

 

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard took the moment to intensify his call for faster action by the Fed's policy-setting panel, and said that rapidly strengthening economic data was making more of his colleagues comfortable with the idea of speeding up the bond-buying taper and laying the groundwork for a liftoff from zero rates. In September a slight majority of the Fed's 18 policymakers thought a rate hike would not be warranted until at least 2023.

 

"The danger now is that we get too much inflation... it's time for the (Fed) to react at upcoming meetings" Bullard said, arguing that the Fed should finish its bond program by March, and reiterating his view the central bank should raise rates at least twice next year.

 

"The inflation numbers are high enough that I think (ending the taper by March) would really help us to create the optionality to do more if we had to, if inflation doesn't dissipate as expected in the next couple of months," he told reporters.

 

The Fed has kept interest rates near zero since March 2020. In November it began reducing its $120 billion in bond purchases each month on a pace that would end them entirely by June 2022.

 

But, with inflation running at more than twice the Fed's 2% target and risks rising that it won't recede next year as quickly as policymakers would like, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that at the Fed's next policy meeting on Dec. 14-15 they would consider speeding up the taper by a few months.

 

Friday's labor market report "doesn't do anything to derail the Fed from a faster taper," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

 

Bullard has for months been on the hawkish end of the Fed's policy spectrum, but in the last few weeks more of his colleagues have joined him in wanting at least the option of raising rates earlier than June.

 

Fed policymakers generally agree that a liftoff from near-zero rates should only start after the Fed has stopped buying bonds.

 

Friday's labor report showed labor force participation rose to 61.8%, the highest since it fell off a cliff in the early days of the pandemic, and women - many of whom stayed home from jobs to fill in childcare, schooling and eldercare gaps - entered the labor force at the fastest rate since March.

 

"We think the Fed will view the economy as near full employment," Barclays economists wrote in a note, adding that not only do they expect the central bank to speed up its taper in December, but also to begin raising rates in March.

 

Interest-rate futures traders are pricing in a rate increase in June, with two more by the end of 2022.

 

Economists at Goldman Sachs noted following the report that the survey response rate that feeds into the payrolls number was the lowest for a November in 13 years. Several months this year have seen upward revisions in later readings, owing in part to the difficulty of data collection during the pandemic. From May through September, 748,000 more jobs were created than reported in the Labor Department's initial estimate.

 

Bullard echoed that in comments to reporters, adding he expected upward revisions to the payrolls number.

 

He downplayed the potential impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant, saying the economy had adjusted to prior strains of the virus and he'd expect a similar pattern this time,

 

Still, some analysts noted, even if the Fed wraps up its quantitative easing program within months, that doesn't necessarily mean a string of rate hikes is a given.

 

"We think that it is clear that QE has overstayed its welcome," Blackrock chief investment officer Rick Rieder wrote in a note to investors, but added, "the next few months will be fertile with information on Omicron risks, supply and demand influences, a potentially moderately slowing demand for goods and services, having moved further from the immense fiscal and monetary stimulus, and the potential alleviation of some of the supply-chain pressures that have pressed prices higher."

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

Goldman Sachs launches green finance group with Beijing think tank

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) and the International Finance Forum (IFF), a Beijing-headquartered think tank, launched a green finance working group on Saturday, the two said.

 

The working group will facilitate dialogue on climate action among senior executives from global corporations and researchers from leading institutions, according to a joint statement sent to Reuters.

 

They said the group will advise and work with policymakers to enhance green finance cooperation in the public and private sectors.

 

John Waldron, Goldman's president and chief operating officer, and Zhu Xian, vice president and secretary-general of the IFF, co-chair the group.

 

China's goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2060 could generate $16 trillion in infrastructure investment opportunities and as 40 million net new jobs for the country, according to Goldman research.

 

"We need to move from the science of climate change to the business of climate change, to deploying these technologies at scale and making it easier for consumers to seek out and opt for greener energy sources to power their daily lives," Waldron said.

 

"Many of the companies that are joining us in the working group are some of the most important investors and users of energy worldwide. We need them to be active participants and supporters of the climate transition ahead," he added.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

IMF chief Georgieva tells creditors on debt restructuring: 'Get it done'

(Reuters) - Private and sovereign creditors should accelerate work on debt restructuring efforts for countries like Chad, Zambia and Ethiopia or risk discouraging countries that need help from participating, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva told the Reuters Next conference on Friday.

 

"Get it done," she said, calling for more timely debt restructuring agreements and agreement to freeze debt service payments once a country applies for help under the Common Framework set up by the G20 economies and the Paris Club.

 

"Why would they participate if it takes forever, and during that time, they are still expected to service debt?" she said.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Africa: A False Start for Africa's Free Trade Deal?

To sustain momentum after the AfCFTA's January launch, traders must be kept in the loop about why implementation is slow.

 

A year ago, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, wearing his African Union (AU) chairperson hat, convened a special AU summit to launch the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA aims to liberalise 97% of intra-African trade. The leaders agreed, with considerable fanfare, that trading would start on 1 January 2021.

 

Yet almost 12 months later, apparently not a single widget has crossed an African border under the agreement's duty and quota free terms, and it's not clear when one will. Why the delay and is it a problem?

 

Wamkele Mene, the South African Secretary-General of AfCFTA, would say no. He's on record saying that all free trade areas take a long time to implement, and this is a particularly ambitious one.

 

Last week, Mene explained at a Chatham House webinar that 87.6% of the vital rules of origin for the agreement had already been negotiated - leaving mainly only those covering autos, sugar, textile, and clothing. This was a 'remarkable' achievement, given that there were over 8 000 products in a typical harmonised system.

 

Meanwhile Egypt, Kenya and he thought South Africa had already gazetted their reduced import tariffs while others were still negotiating among themselves, which is how the import tariffs work, rather than multilaterally.

 

Super-imposing the AfCFTA on other free trade areas will create additional complexity for dealers

 

Mene outlined various helpful measures his AfCFTA secretariat was launching to accelerate the deal's implementation. These include an adjustment fund to help countries adapt to the loss of import revenues. There's also a pan-African payment and settlement system that would enable AfCFTA transactions to be conducted in African currencies rather than external hard currencies such as the US dollar.

 

Another measure is a digital platform that would provide information on all the rules of origin and the customs terms and procedures. This would especially help small and medium enterprises - the main aim of the AfCFTA, he said.

 

Mene predicted that trading under the AfCFTA would begin early next year. He noted that countries could have begun trading in the products for which rules of origin had already been agreed upon.

 

So why haven't they? In a blog on the TradeExperettes website, Catherine Grant Makokera, Head of Tutwa Consulting, says considerable tensions between the free market vision of the AfCFTA and the national economic development priorities of the participating countries are one of the main causes of delay.

 

This isn't unique to the AfCFTA but is particularly acute here because relatively few specifics were included in the framework agreement (probably because of the rush to get it done, one would think). So in the current negotiations between countries, they have to start by identifying the 3% of goods that they exclude from AfCFTA tariff reductions before making their tariff offers on the rest.

 

A lot of painful reconfiguration is going on to reconcile free trade ideals with national industrial policies

 

'In those African countries that rely on tariff revenue as a key part of domestic resource mobilisation or that use tariffs as a tool of industrial policy, this could involve some difficult choices - a situation that is further complicated by an increasing focus on local content requirements and import substitution by African policymakers,' she says.

 

Indeed one hears that for several countries with significant industrial bases - like South Africa - trying to squeeze all the products it wants to protect into that 3% exclusion box is proving difficult.

 

Grant Makokera also says the concession that least developed countries (LDCs) will have longer (10-13 years) to implement tariff reductions is being eroded by more developed states' claiming the same preference via their membership of customs unions, which include LDCs.

 

She also notes that the AfCFTA won't replace existing regional free trade areas but will complement them, so that countries need only resort to it where they don't already have free trade. But super-imposing the AfCFTA on the other free trade areas will create additional complexity for dealers who will have to navigate a complex mix of rules and duties.

 

Overall Grant Makokera notes another tension between the political ambition to get the AfCFTA up and running as soon as possible and the technical process of negotiating complex rules. Negotiators, she fears, could cut corners to meet - or perhaps not too badly exceed - political deadlines. These cut corners could hamper smooth implementation.

 

Limited progress in negotiations does not in any way cast doubt on the viability of AfCFTA

 

And she notes that political leaders announcing the start of trading on 1 January 2021 - yet negotiations are still dragging on - is confusing traders. 'The advice to under-promise and over-deliver comes to mind,' Grant Makokera notes dryly.

 

Teniola Tayo, a Researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Dakar, believes the decision to launch trade on 1 January lent valuable urgency to negotiations. She also points out that the politics behind tariff agreements in individual countries can be difficult, as they have been in Nigeria, a key player in AfCFTA. Tayo agrees that a lot of painful reconfiguration is going on to reconcile the ideals of continental free trade with national industrial policies.

 

And Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation at the ISS, agrees with Tayo that 'the limited progress in negotiations does not in any way cast doubt on the viability of AfCFTA. The 97% goal is to be achieved by 2034, for example.

 

'The road to the AfCFTA is a long one and the 1 January 2021 trading start date is generally seen for what it was, a symbolic gesture. There are going to be many more delays and false starts. I think the question is rather how AfCFTA will work if sub-regional arrangements have not.'

 

Complex trade negotiations no doubt take time. But by firing the starting gun almost a year ago when no runners were out of the starting blocks, African leaders have created confusion, especially among traders.

 

Maybe the early start date was needed to drive negotiations. But to sustain momentum, the AfCFTA secretariat and participating states should do a better job of keeping traders in the loop about why implementation is taking so long.

 

Peter Fabricius, ISS Consultant

 

Exclusive rights to re-publish ISS Today articles have been given to Daily Maverick in South Africa and Premium Times in Nigeria. For media based outside South Africa and Nigeria that want to re-publish articles, or for queries about our re-publishing policy, email us.-ISS.

 

 

 

Nigeria: Direct Remittances Drops By 62.4% to U.S.$1.96 Billion In 10 Months

Latest data by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed that total direct remittances from Nigerians in Diaspora dropped by 62,4 per cent to $1.96 billion in 10 months of 2021 from $5.21billion it recorded in prior year's 10 months.

 

Analysts attributed the significant drop to current global economy challenges caused by COVID-19 and dwindling global oil prices.

 

The CBN had revealed that Nigeria received $19.2 billion and $5.5billion in total direct remittances between 2019 and 2020 respectively.

 

Remittances are funds transferred from migrants to their home countries.

 

The breakdown of CBN's total direct remittances, according to its 'international payment' data revealed that, in January 2021, $185million was remitted, while in February, $452million was the total direct remittance.

 

According to the CBN, $227million and $165mllion was the total direct remittance between March and April 2019 respectively. The data disclosed that total direct remittance dropped to $150million in May; $378million in June and $37.6 billion in July 2021.

 

For August and September, the apex bank reported $86million and $224million was remitted to the nation's economy, respectively.

 

It added that $51.74million was the total direct remittance in October.

 

The CBN had licensed International Money Transfer Operators (IMTO) and monitors legitimate foreign currency, most especially Dollar inflow into the country.

 

In addition, banks and oil companies also remit foreign currency to the CBN.

 

The World Bank had projected $17.6 billion diaspora remittances into Nigeria in 2021, representing 2.5 per cent increase from $17.2 billion recorded in 2020.

 

The bank had attributed the moderate increase in Nigeria's Diaspora remittances to increasing influence of policies intended to channel inflows through the banking system.

 

Among other things the report projected 7.3 per cent increase in remittances to low and middle income countries in 2021.

 

The World Bank also projected a 6.2 increase in remittances to Sub-Saharan countries in 2021. The World Bank stated: "Remittances to low- and middle-income countries are projected to have grown. This return to growth is more robust than earlier estimates and follows the resilience of flows in 2020 when remittances declined by only 1.7 percent despite a severe global recession due to COVID-19, according to estimates from the World Bank's Migration and Development Brief released today.

 

"Remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa returned to growth in 2021, increasing by 6.2 percent to $45 billion. Nigeria, the region's largest recipient, is experiencing a moderate rebound in remittance flows, in part due to the increasing influence of policies intended to channel inflows through the banking system."-This Day.

 

 

 

South Africa: UCT Urged to Urgently Divest From Fossil Fuels

Fossil Free UCT and UCT Green Campus Initiative held a picket and penned an open letter urging the University of Cape Town to divest from fossil fuels.

 

The matter is set to be decided at the next council meeting on Saturday 4 December.

 

UCT's University Panel for Responsible Investment has recommended it divest.

 

"In the grand scheme of things the decision you make on 4 December is not just about you. It is about your children, your students' futures, and the lives of millions of young people across the country who deserve a chance at life within a reasonably stable environment," Fossil Free UCT and UCT Green Campus Initiative have told the University of Cape Town (UCT) in an open letter.

 

They want UCT to commit to divesting from fossil fuels at the upcoming council meeting on 4 December.

 

In the letter addressed to the UCT Council, the groups urged it to fully adopt the fossil fuel divestment recommendation from the UCT University Panel for Responsible Investment (UPRI).

 

South Africa emitted over 450 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2020, making it the largest emitter in Africa and the 13th largest in the world by country.

 

For the past eight years, the Fossil Free UCT campaign has tried to persuade UCT to phase out all its investments in coal, oil and gas.

 

Together with academics, students, Cape Town school learners and NGOs, they have written to the UCT Council and launched several petitions in this regard.

 

In December 2020, the UCT Convocation voted in favour of divestment, and the UPRI published its recommendations in August 2021, advising the UCT Foundation and Council to commit to fully divesting from fossil fuels by 31 December 2029 or earlier.

 

The Council was asked to recommend to its Trustees and the Joint Investment Committee (JIC) that its fund managers be instructed to seek investment opportunities in the renewable energy sector or in investment projects that enable a just energy transition, through, for example, promoting diversification of economic opportunities in communities and regions that are currently most dependent on fossil-fuel industries.

 

The panel also recommended that the Council consider a Responsible Investment Office for UCT.

 

David Le Page, of Fossil Free SA, said that if the UCT Council decides to not divest it would be ignoring the research of its own experts.

 

"If UCT doesn't divest, it will be showing itself to be a laggard on human rights, on climate and social justice issues ... it would put the university's endowment at risk of financial losses from stranded assets, carbon bubble risk, and lost opportunities to invest in a just energy transition.

 

"It would be a terrible betrayal of the students whose futures UCT should be safeguarding," said Le Page.

 

On Thursday, representatives of UCT Green Campus Initiative demonstrated at the Graca Lawns.

 

"For an institution like UCT to continue its investments in fossil fuels is no longer morally, socially or economically viable especially in the climate crises we find ourselves in," said James Granelli of the Initiative.

 

Raeesah Noor-Mahomed, from the Climate Justice Charter Movement, said, "To still be invested in fossil fuels, is to be making money at the expense of the most marginalised people."

 

Le Page said they are hopeful that the Council will adopt the UPRI's full recommendation. Representatives of the organisations had spoken to the chair of the UCT Council Babalwa Ngonyama on Wednesday evening.

 

The UCT Council has yet to respond to our questions.-GroundUp.

 

 

Namibia: Dunn Appointed As Second Deputy BoN Governor

History is being made. The Bank of Namibia will now have two deputy governors, and president Hage Geingob has appointed the Financial Intelligence Centre head, Leonie Dunn, as the second deputy governor of the Bank of Namibia.

 

He also reappointed the current governor Johannes !Gawaxab (65) for a period of five years, confirmed state press secretary Alfredo Hengari.

 

Ebson Uanguta, the current deputy governor of the bank, has also been reappointed for a period of five years.

 

Dunn's appointment comes at a time when more women have taken up space in the once male-dominated industry. The commercial banking space has already changed - and women head many of the big banks in the country.

 

These new appointments come just a day after !Gawaxab refused to comment on his future with the bank.

 

This week, while launching the bank's new strategy for 2022 to 2024, !Gawaxab hinted that he would like two deputies, of which one should preferably be female.

 

The move to have two deputies comes while the bank is reportedly restructuring and reshuffling senior management, said !Gawaxab at the launch.

 

"The board of the bank has approved changes to the organisational structure of the bank, which will take effect on 1 January 2022. Towards this end, a series of senior-level staff appointments effective 1 January 2022 will soon be announced," he said.

 

Expanding on this, !Gawaxab also said he does not any longer need two advisers like the previous governor, preferring to stick to one instead.-Namibian.

 

 

 


 


 


Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2021

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

National Unity Day

 

December 22

 


 

Christmas Day

 

December 25

 


 

Boxing Day

 

December 26

 


 

Public Holiday in lieu of Boxing Day falling on a Sunday

 

December 27

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


ART

PPC

 

 


Starafrica

Fidelity

Turnall

 


Medtech

Zimre

Nampak Zimbabwe

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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