Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 October 2021

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 25 October 2021

 


 

 


 <https://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


ü  Digicel Pacific: Australia's Telstra buys Pacific firm 'to block China'

ü  Ofcom orders phone networks to block foreign scam calls

ü  Budget 2021: £2bn for new homes on derelict or unused land

ü  Budget: Don’t hit us again, businesses begs chancellor

ü  Energy prices put 'enormous pressure' on Scottish business

ü  Will Apple be the last US tech giant left in China?

ü  Second-hand car prices surge amid new car shortage

ü  Carbon needs to cost at least $100/tonne now to reach net zero by 2050: Reuters poll

ü  With corporate tax off table, U.S. Democrats turn to billionaires to fund spending bill

ü  Twin peaks: Whether it's supply or demand, oil era heads for crunch time

ü  Asian shares firm, dollar weak as traders eye earnings

ü  PayPal says is not pursuing acquisition of Pinterest

ü  Panasonic unveils prototype battery for Tesla

ü  Inflation genie out of the bottle: Five questions for the ECB

ü  Tesla pulls its new Full Self-Driving beta due to software 'issues'

ü  Exxon calls for carbon price, working on CCS projects across Asia

 

 

 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

Digicel Pacific: Australia's Telstra buys Pacific firm 'to block China'

The Australian government and telecoms giant Telstra are buying a Pacific telecoms company in a joint venture.

 

The move is being viewed as a political block to China's influence in the region.

 

Telstra called the A$2.1bn ($1.6bn; £1.2bn) deal a "unique and very attractive commercial opportunity to boost our presence in the region".

 

Digicel Pacific employs 1,700 people across Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa, Vanuatu and Tahiti.

 

The company's future has been the focus of speculation for months.

 

Last year Digicel denied a report that it was in talks to sell its Pacific arm to state-owned China Mobile.

 

 

According to Telstra, the Australian government approached it "to provide technical advice in relation to Digicel Pacific" which is "critical to telecommunications in the region".

 

The government then agreed to finance the bulk of the bid, Telstra said.

 

Strategic move

Analysts say the company would otherwise be attractive to China as it seeks to assert greater authority in the region.

 

"Digicel is the primary player in the Pacific and Australia sees it as a strategic asset that they can't allow to fall into the hands of China," said Jonathan Pryke of the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank.

 

"They are keen to get Australian business back into the Pacific and they've come to the realisation that they are going to have to underwrite."

 

A spokesman for Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade told newswire Reuters: "Partnering on infrastructure development is a key part of our Pacific step-up."

 

 

Media caption,Australia and China are big trading partners but have disagreed on a number of important political issues

Amid escalating tensions with China, Australia has ramped up its presence in the Pacific.

 

This includes allocating $1.5bn to investment in infrastructure projects in the region as well as joining the Quad group, with the US, India and Japan, and the Aukus security pact, with the US and UK.

 

Australia's big gamble on the US over China

It also largely funded a 4,700km (2,900-mile) Coral Sea cable in 2018 to prevent Chinese telecoms company Huawei Technologies from laying it.

 

It is also now helping to finance an undersea optic fibre cable for Palau.

 

Chinese control of telecommunications networks has long been a concern for Washington and its allies.

 

This has led many countries to ban Huawei and other Chinese companies from supplying phone lines and 5G networks, including the US, UK and Australia.-BBC

 

 

 

Ofcom orders phone networks to block foreign scam calls

Major phone networks have agreed to automatically block almost all internet calls coming from abroad if they pretend to be from UK numbers, Ofcom has confirmed.

 

Criminals have been using internet-based calling technology to make it look like a phone call or text is coming from a real telephone number.

 

Almost 45 million consumers were targeted by phone scams this summer.

 

Ofcom said it expected the measures to be introduced at pace as a "priority".

 

So far, one operator has already implemented the new plans, the regulator told the BBC, while other phone networks are still exploring methods of making it work.

 

"We've been working with telecoms companies to implement technical solutions, including blocking at source, suspicious international calls that are masked by a UK number," said Lindsey Fussell, Ofcom's networks and communications group director.

 

"We expect these measures to be introduced as a priority, and at pace, to ensure customers are better protected."

 

She added that tackling the phone scams issue was a "complex problem" that requires a coordinated effort from the police, government, other regulators and industry.

 

The move follows months of discussions between Ofcom and the UK telecoms industry.

 

Will the plans work?

Internet-based calling technology, also known as Voice Over Internet Protcol (VoIP), is used by millions of consumers globally to make phone calls free or cheaply every year.

 

Cyber-security researcher Gabriel Cirlig says VoIP providers benefit from scam calls sent over their services, so they are less likely to police the traffic they send to phone networks

Popular services you might recognise that use VoIP include WhatsApp, Skype, Zoom and Microsoft Teams.

 

The Telegraph, which first reported the story on Sunday, cited Whitehall sources that have cast doubt on Ofcom's plans.

 

They say blocking traffic from foreign VoIP providers won't work to stop scam texts and calls, because much of the UK is still relying on old copper-based ISDN networks dating back to the 1970s.

 

Security experts the BBC spoke to disagree, however.

 

Apart from consumers, many businesses also use the VoIP technology for internal corporate phone networks.

 

Whenever a corporate phone network makes a call, a VoIP provider hands over the call from the internet to the phone networks - a technology called "SIP trunking".

 

According to Gabriel Cirlig of US cyber-security firm Human, telcos are not inspecting the traffic they receive from VoIP providers - they just let it through onto the network.

 

"Recently, because of the ease in implementing your own private enterprise telephone system, everybody can have access to critical telephone infrastructure," Mr Cirlig told the BBC.

 

"Because of this lower barrier of entry, it is very easy for scammers to build their own systems to spoof mobile numbers - the cybercriminals are essentially pretending to be legitimate corporate telephone networks in order to have access to legitimate telco infrastructure."

 

Cyber-security expert Matthew Gribben says that while blocking foreign VoIP provider traffic won't completely solve the problem, it will make a big difference to the number of scam calls and texts we receive

He adds that right now, it is up to the VoIP provider to check whether the calls it is handing over to telecoms networks are actually legitimate.

 

"This is not a regional problem or restricted to one type of infrastructure, this is a systemic issue that allows crime to cross any borders," said Mr Cirlig.

 

"This feature is enabling the VoIP business model so they don't want to stop it."

 

Matthew Gribben, a former consultant to GCHQ, the UK government intelligence agency, agrees. He used to see ongoing scams while monitoring networks for GCHQ.

 

"It's fundamentally the foreign VoIP providers that are technologically enabling these gangs to operate, so it will make a huge dent in this," he told the BBC. "It doesn't fix everything but it's an excellent step in the right direction."

 

Overall, the experts agree that the only way to completely fix the problem is to implement new telephone identification protocols that enable phone networks to authenticate that all calls and text messages actually come a real telephone number.

 

The new protocols, known as "Stir and Shaken" in a nod to James Bond, were developed by an international standards body, the US-based Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF).

 

US authorities have ordered mobile operators to implement the protocols by the end of 2021, but Ofcom told the BBC in August that introducing full authentication in the UK will only be possible when the underlying technology that supports voice services is upgraded to become internet protocol-based (IP) networks, which is due to be completed by 2025.

 

The Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications (BEREC) told the BBC it can require mobile operators to block, on a case-by-case basis, access to numbers or services in case of fraud. However, it cannot impose Stir and Shaken on EU operators.

 

"Nevertheless…these protocols are currently [being] discussed at the level of the European Conference of Postal and Telecommunications Administrations," said a Berec spokesman.

 

There are also efforts being made by the UK to invest in technologies that improve overall telecoms cyber-security.

 

Arqit founder and chief executive David Williams was a satellite industry executive and telecoms investment banker before founding a startup to develop quantum encryption

Startup Arqit was asked by BT and the government in 2017 to develop quantum encryption for satellites.

 

The firm, which listed on the Nasdaq in June, has developed a solution that creates "unbreakable" software encryption keys, delivered via satellite, to secure any device or cloud server.

 

"The encryption keys we create would take even a quantum computer more than the age of the universe to crack," said Arqit's founder and chief executive David Williams.

 

Arqit recently signed agreements with BT, Northrop Grumman, Juniper Networks and Babcock. It merged with US firm Centricus in September, following approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which consulted with quantum scientists as part of its vetting process.-BBC

 

 

 

 

Budget 2021: £2bn for new homes on derelict or unused land

Almost £2bn will be invested by the government into building new homes on derelict or unused land in England, the chancellor is expected to announce in Wednesday's Budget.

 

The government says the funding will build 160,000 greener homes on brownfield land, equivalent to 2,000 football pitches.

 

It will also invest £9m in creating 100 new urban "pocket parks" across the UK.

 

This is part of efforts to meet the UK's net zero target by 2050.

 

The government hopes the plans will regenerate local areas in England and support 50,000 new jobs while preserving green spaces.

 

More than 2.5 million people across the UK currently live further than a 10 minute walk from their closest green space.

 

To combat this, at least 100 neglected urban spaces will be transformed into pocket parks, each measuring the size of a tennis court.

 

The chancellor is also expected to confirm £65m to develop new software to help with the digitisation of the town planning system at the Budget and Spending Review.

 

The first phase will see the system rolled out to up to 175 Local Authorities in England.-BBC

 

 

 

Budget: Don’t hit us again, businesses begs chancellor

If government and business were a couple, a guidance counsellor might have been called in by now to repair a strained relationship.

 

This week's budget will be a test to see if the mood music can improve, after a number of fractious years.

 

Relations seemed to hit an all-time low when the prime minister famously dismissed business concerns over the brinksmanship, during the Brexit negotiations, with a four letter expression of his lack of sympathy.

 

Then the argument became more physical. A whopping rise in corporation tax from 2023, from 19 to 25%, reversed at a stroke a decade of Tory business tax policy.

 

The chancellor then raised employers' national insurance contributions by 1.25%, adding £6bn a year to a wage bill that was already rising.

 

Those rising wages were celebrated by the PM at the Conservative Party Conference - Boris Johnson insisted it was evidence that the UK was on its way to higher wage more productive economy.

 

But economists will tell you the productivity gains are supposed to come first.

 

And all this against a backdrop of business feeling they were being blamed for labour, driver and petrol shortages, that have hampered the recovery of many parts of the economy.

 

Meanwhile the government is urging, even expecting, the private sector to lead the UK into greener, more sustainable pastures by investing heavily.

 

As Tony Danker, head of the CBI recently put it: "You cannot will the ends and ignore the means to turbocharge the economy.

 

"The government wants business to drive investment and innovation but its tax policy is working in the other direction."

 

The government will point to the fact that the businesses that do invest have already been rewarded by the so-called "super-deduction" introduced in the March budget.

 

This measure rewards companies that do invest with tax breaks greater than the sum invested - a move that was widely welcomed by business.

 

Overhaul of business rates unlikely

It is unlikely that we will see any major changes in direct business taxes - and for that businesses will be grateful.

 

However, they are likely to be disappointed if they are expecting a long-awaited major overhaul of business rates - their biggest and longest held desire.

 

The government may, however, say that green upgrades to premises will not lead to higher rates, as often happens now. When firms improve their buildings, they get sent a higher rates bill under the current system.

 

Business also fears that there may be some backsliding from the government on targets for public spending on research and development.

 

A much anticipated rise in capital gains tax, to be more in line with income tax, will have implications for investors in business.

 

Yet, other business leaders admit the government has a point on highlighting under-investment.

 

Speaking recently at a home builders conference, the boss of Taylor Wimpey, Pete Redfearn, said that the construction industry had been guilty of not putting more of its own money into skills and training.

 

An extra £3bn announced this weekend for skills and extra funding for electric car production in the North East and the midlands was welcomed by business groups. We can expect a heavy emphasis on skills in the chancellor's speech.

 

Business feels that at times it is the victim of gaslighting - where its real and difficult experiences are dismissed as irrational or self pitying, by a government keen to look forward to a time when, hand in hand with industry, it can lead the UK to a greener more prosperous future.

 

As always, there will be talk on both sides of the happy partnership between public and private, but behind the smiles, the strains between business and the government remain very real.-BBC

 

 

 

Energy prices put 'enormous pressure' on Scottish business

Rising energy costs are putting "enormous pressure" on Scottish firms, and could lead to closures and job losses, business leaders have warned.

 

The Scottish Chambers of Commerce (SCC) said many businesses were finding it impossible to keep pace with energy price rises after Brexit and Covid.

 

Liz Cameron, the SCC's chief executive, called for more support for businesses in Wednesday's Budget.

 

The government said it was monitoring the situation incredibly closely.

 

Dr Cameron has written to UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak to call for the introduction of an energy price cap for small and medium businesses.

 

While there is a price cap for households, there is no such safeguard for businesses, which have to absorb the full impact of rising global energy prices.

 

This year has seen an unprecedented increase in global gas prices, which have risen 250% since the start beginning of 2021.

 

'Crisis point'

Dr Cameron said: "In the past few weeks, the UK has reached a crisis point over gas and electricity prices, and businesses are feeling the consequences.

 

"Many businesses in Scotland are still operating in survival mode and continue to recover from the dual challenges of the UK's departure from the EU and the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic.

 

"It's impossible for firms to keep pace with these exorbitant rises in energy prices and these cost pressures are putting many businesses under enormous pressure and resulting in these rising cost pressures increasingly being passed on to the consumer."

 

She urged the UK government to support business recovery over the winter months.

 

In her letter to Mr Sunak, Dr Cameron said businesses urgently required support to mitigate rising costs, which she said "threaten recovery and could lead to the permanent closure of businesses and the loss of jobs across Scotland".

 

According to the Chamber of Commerce, one Scottish hotel group will see a 70% increase on its current yearly bill.

 

The Caithness Collection, which operates three hotels in the north Highlands, has reported a potential rise of £53,170 per year in electricity costs as it moves to a new contract.

 

Andrew Mackay, owner of the hotel group, said: "The hospitality sector was one of the hardest hit throughout the pandemic and recovery is already proving challenging, with difficulties finding and retaining staff, increased wage demands, other supply chain issues and tax increases.

 

"Rising energy costs are creating huge burdens and challenges for the business and it's vital that Scotland's businesses are afforded some buffer to guard against energy prices that are hitting them hard."

 

Presentational grey line 1

A UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy spokesman said: "The government is in regular contact with the energy industry and Ofgem to manage the impact of high global gas prices and will continue to monitor the situation incredibly closely, including the impacts for small and medium size businesses."

 

A UK Treasury spokesman said: "The Budget and Spending Review next week will set out how we will continue to invest in public services, businesses and jobs while keeping the public finances on a sustainable footing."-BBC

 

 

 

Will Apple be the last US tech giant left in China?

There was a time when the US tech giants were all in China - even Facebook. Today, Apple's huge presence in the country looks increasingly conspicuous.

 

Last week Microsoft, which still operates in China, announced it was to shut down its social network, LinkedIn, there.

 

The company said having to comply with the Chinese state had become increasingly challenging - so it pulled the plug.

 

Apple has its own censorship problems in the country.

 

The BBC reported last week that two popular religious apps had been removed from Apple's App Store.

 

It later emerged that Amazon-owned Audible and the Yahoo Finance app had also been taken down.

 

Apple Censorship, a group that monitors the App Store, says it has seen an increase in apps that have been removed this month.

 

So what is going on?

 

The great tech crackdown

It is notoriously hard to gauge what's happening behind closed doors in Beijing.

 

Still, what is becoming increasingly clear is that Apple and Microsoft are embroiled in a domestic battle between the authorities and the Chinese tech industry.

 

China has its own big tech titans - Tencent, Alibaba and Huawei - that are enormous global companies. But the Chinese government has grown worried about the power they wield.

 

In April, Alibaba accepted a record $2.8bn (£2bn) fine after an investigation found that it had abused its dominant market position

In August, the Chinese government unveiled a five-year plan outlining tighter regulation of the tech economy

It's also been cracking down on Bitcoin

American companies haven't been spared from the "great tech crackdown".

 

"The crackdown suggests that both Apple and Microsoft are very aware that their position is more tenuous than it's been in recent years. They know they need to walk carefully," says James Griffiths, author of The Great Firewall of China.

 

The straw that broke the camel's back for Microsoft appears to be a law due to come into force on 1 November - the Personal Information Protection Law (PIPL) - which would have required the company to comply with more regulation.

 

Microsoft alludes to it in a statement explaining its decision to pull LinkedIn: "We're facing a significantly more challenging operating environment and greater compliance requirements in China."

 

Graham Webster, editor-in-chief of the DigiChina Project at Stanford University, said: "I think they decided it just wasn't worth it."

 

Mr Webster links the decision to say goodbye to LinkedIn to forthcoming enforcement of the PIPL.

 

The devil's bargain

Apple, however, has a different set of priorities in China to Microsoft.

 

It is deeply entangled in the country, far more so than any other US tech company.

 

In the last quarter, Apple made nearly $15bn in revenue in China and Taiwan - an extraordinary figure.

 

Its global supply chain also depends on Chinese manufacturing. And to be in China, Apple knows it has to play by the country's rules - even if that means censorship.

 

You might ask: why doesn't Apple just sell hardware in China, and forget about the App Store?

 

The problem is, Apple believes the App Store and the iPhone are inseparable. It doesn't want to set a precedent of side-loading apps, where people can download apps on an iPhone away from the App Store.

 

For one thing, it would make considerably less money.

 

So if Apple is going to sell products in China, keeping the App Store operational in that country is deemed essential.

 

"Apple has been removing apps and essentially censoring the App Store in one way or another for years," Mr Webster says.

 

But Mr Griffiths argues that censorship has slowly grown stricter during Apple's time in the country.

 

"​Apple has set itself a devil's bargain here," he says.

 

"Once you start to agree to remove apps, it doesn't really stop."

 

Secret strategies

Other companies saw the writing on the wall earlier than Microsoft.

 

Google removed its search engine from China in 2010, after what it said was a Chinese hacking attack. The company said it was no longer happy to censor searches.

 

Rebecca Fannin, author of Silicon Dragons, believes Microsoft's pulling of LinkedIn now makes Apple a "big target".

 

But she thinks Apple is going to fight to stay in China.

 

"You know Apple is really one of the market leaders in China... I don't see Apple pulling out of China over any of these issues any time soon," she says.

 

What we don't know are the conversations that are going on behind closed doors between Apple and the Chinese authorities.

 

Perhaps Apple does push back, and maybe many apps are still up and live on the App Store in China because Apple stood up for them. We don't know.

 

Apple rarely comments on these stories, and points journalists to its human rights policy, which states it will follow the laws of the countries it operates in - even if it disagrees with them.

 

And in China, they've been doing just that.

 

When the authorities really want an app taken down, it gets removed.

 

Apple's presence in the country now feels almost like a hangover from another era. Big Tech simply doesn't have much of a presence in China any more.

 

The question now is how much regulation, how much compliance - and how much censorship - is too much?-BBC

 

 

 

Second-hand car prices surge amid new car shortage

Second-hand car prices are rising at "unprecedented rates", the AA has said, as more people consider buying used cars amid a low supply of new vehicles.

 

Research by the motoring group suggests the price of the UK's most popular cars have increased up to 57% since 2019.

 

Three to five-year-old Ford Fiestas, the most popular on its AA Cars website, were now valued at £9,770 compared to £7,448 two years ago.

 

Industry figures said "nearly new" used cars were in particular high demand.

 

Price rises have been driven by a number of factors.

 

A global shortage of computer chips used in car production, as well as other materials such as copper, aluminium and cobalt, has led to fewer new vehicles rolling off production lines.

 

That has meant more buyers turning to the used-car market.

 

AA Cars, which compared the prices of three, four and five year-old cars between 2019 and 2021, said demand for some models was so strong that they are increasing in value with age.

 

Analysis from the motoring group's website found the price of a three-year-old Mini Hatch in 2021 was 57% higher (£15,367) than a model of the same age in 2019 (£9,811).

 

Meanwhile, research said the price of a five-year-old Mini Hatch had jumped 15% compared to what a three-year-old model was worth in 2019, meaning the car gained in value despite getting two years older.

 

Audi A3s saw the biggest jump in prices since 2019 (46.09%), followed by Ford Focuses (43.11%), which were the second most popular car on the AA's website.

 

The motoring group said the first easing of coronavirus lockdown restrictions in summer 2020 had "unleashed demand" that had been "pent up" during the early stages of the pandemic.

 

It said a shortage of new cars for sale led many drivers to buy used rather than new, with "demand pressures pushing up second-hand prices at unprecedented rates".

 

James Fairclough, chief executive of AA Cars, said some popular cars were growing in value "even as they sit on the driveway".

 

"With the exception of houses and some classic cars, things rarely go up in value as they age," he said.

 

Chart showing second-hand car price rises

Mr Fairclough said despite the price growth in used cars, it was "still possible to get a good deal" if people shopped around.

 

Besides new car supply issues, used-car dealerships have also experienced a shortage of stock as trade-ins have been reduced, according industry figures.

 

The rise of online dealers with large advertising budgets such as Cinch, Cazoo and We Buy Any Car has also changed the market.

 

The used-car price surge along with rising energy, grocery and transport costs has contributed to the UK's higher inflation rate.

 

It has led to the Bank of England warning it "will have to act", suggesting interest rates may rise soon.

 

Fewer cars for more money

Peter Smyth, director of family business Swansway Car Dealers, told the BBC "nearly-new cars" were now a "desirable product" because of the slow supply of new ones.

 

He said "the more expensive cars" on his forecourts such as Audi Q7s and Land Rovers, were "selling the fastest".

 

"We are selling less cars for more money," he said. "You cannot replace the stock you have got."

 

"We look at our prices of our cars on a daily basis and we move them with the market place."

 

Mr Smyth said he expected prices to remain high for the next six to 12 months. He added he had been told by manufacturers that next year was going to be "tight" due to the shortage of materials such as computer chips.

 

"What you will find is manufacturers will have more supply of luxury cars next year than lower end stuff," he said. "They are going to put the chips in the high-value cars where they make the most margin."

 

In August, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said second-hand car sales in the UK had more than doubled.

 

Petrol cars made up most of the sales, with Ford Fiestas, Vauxhall Corsas, Ford Focuses and Volkswagen Golfs being the most popular models.

 

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said that while a buoyant used-car market was "important, as strong residual values support new car transactions", it was "critical we have a healthy new car market to help accelerate fleet renewal by allowing motorists to replace older, less efficient vehicles with the latest, cleanest models".-BBC

 

 

 

Carbon needs to cost at least $100/tonne now to reach net zero by 2050: Reuters poll

(Reuters) - Setting the global average price of carbon per tonne significantly higher at $100 or more is necessary right away to incentivise net zero emissions by 2050, according to a Reuters poll of climate economists.

 

Carbon pricing has come to the forefront of policy measures seen as ways to reduce emissions to a level consistent with the Paris Agreement target of less than 1.5-2 degrees Celsius of warming.

 

 

The G20 group of large economies recognized carbon pricing for the first time as a possible tool at a meeting in Venice in Italy this year. read more

 

A higher price for carbon is seen as essential to fund the transition to net zero emissions by 2050, which is estimated to cost $44 trillion or 2%-3% of annual global GDP. read more

 

 

The International Monetary Fund has recommended a global average carbon price of $75 per tonne by the end of the decade.

 

But that figure should be at least $100, and right away, to reach net zero emissions by 2050, according to the median view of about 30 climate economists from around the world polled from Sept. 16 to Oct. 20 ahead of the COP26 summit in Glasgow.

 

That is significantly higher than where most countries who set the price currently have it, including among high carbon emitters.

 

Nearly 70% of respondents - 19 of 28 - said the cost of carbon per tonne should be above $75, of whom 17 suggested $100 or above. While six respondents agreed with the IMF recommendation, only three believed it should be lower than $75. Recommendations ranged from $50 to $250.

 

"Current carbon prices in G20 economies are between $3-$60 per tonne of carbon emissions, but many large emerging economies like Brazil, India, Indonesia still have no carbon prices," said Patrick Saner, head of macro strategy at Swiss Re.

 

"We also need to recognize that carbon pricing in itself is no silver bullet."

 

The top three largest emitters - China, the United States and India - account for approximately half of global carbon emissions today.

 

According to the International Energy Agency, current carbon pledges by governments are insufficient to reach targets, and closing the gap would need the global average price of carbon to be much higher than what the IMF recommends.

 

Indeed, Julien Holtz, strategist at Pictet Wealth Management, argues the global average carbon price per tonne is really only around $2 given only about 20% of global emissions are currently covered by actual carbon pricing schemes.

 

While China, the biggest carbon emitter, kicked off its emission trading system on July 16, with an opening price of 48 yuan ($7.51) per tonne, the U.S. and India still do not have a national carbon pricing market mechanism. read more

 

Even the European Union, at the forefront of reducing carbon emissions, has set the carbon price at a little more than half the poll's recommendation. Benchmark carbon prices in the EU Emission Trading System , the first such system, were last trading at 57.78 euros ($67.26) as of Oct. 20.

 

The EU price is expected to average around 55.88 euros ($65.07) and 69.87 euros ($81.36) per tonne this year and next, according to a separate Reuters poll. read more

 

Wide economic disparities pose a major challenge to all countries agreeing to a uniformly high global carbon price, which partly explains the wide range of recommendations provided by climate economists to reach net zero by 2050.

 

With most emerging and some developed countries' continued reliance on fossil fuel-based energy sources to meet their energy demands, a high carbon price will be hard to sustain.

 

"It should start modestly but (be) sufficient to push out coal in the electricity merit order, at least partially," said Charles Kolstad, professor of economics at Stanford University.

 

Despite being crucial to fight climate change, experts say carbon pricing alone is not enough.

 

"While carbon prices in the major world economies are necessary, they are not by themselves sufficient to deliver net zero economies by 2050," said Jon Stenning, associate director and head of environment at Cambridge Econometrics.

 

"The key issue is the need for supporting fiscal and regulatory policy, in addition to carbon pricing to ensure that economies can decarbonise at the pace required."

 

(For a story on the global economic cost of climate change: read more )

 

(For an EXPLAINER on the economic stakes of climate change: read more )

 

($1 = 6.3925 Chinese yuan renminbi, 0.8590 euros)

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

With corporate tax off table, U.S. Democrats turn to billionaires to fund spending bill

(Reuters) - U.S. Democrats are expected to unveil a tax plan on Monday that would seek to raise hundreds of billions of dollars from the country's roughly 700 billionaires to help pay for expanding the social safety net and tackling climate change.

 

Democrats were forced to shift to the unorthodox plan in the face of opposition from one of their own senators, Kyrsten Sinema, to raising the corporate tax rate and the top personal income tax rate to pay for the hefty spending plan, which is a pillar of Democratic President Joe Biden's domestic agenda.

 

The party is putting together the final details of the plan, which is likely to come in at between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion.

 

The progressive wing of the party had wanted a much bigger plan, but opposition from Sinema and fellow Democratic Senator Joe Manchin required the White House to make concessions and cut the overall cost.

 

Democrats have argued for higher income and corporate tax rates for years, saying wealthy Americans and companies should pay more to fund new social benefits, but their struggle to enact such measures underscores the challenges the party faces.

 

Currently, rich Americans do not have to pay taxes on their accumulations of wealth, such as real estate, stocks and artwork, because they are taxed only when an asset is sold.

 

Under the “Billionaire Income Tax” proposal, the federal government would require billionaires to pay taxes on the increased value of assets such as stocks on an annual basis, regardless of whether they sell those assets.

 

They could also take deductions for any annual loss in value of those assets.

 

The plan has the backing of the White House.

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Sunday rejected calling the measure a "wealth tax."

 

"It's not a wealth tax, but a tax on unrealized capital gains of exceptionally wealthy individuals," Yellen said during an interview on CNN.

 

Critics of the plan say it will force billionaires to retreat from the stock market, where valuating assets is easier, and into more opaque markets such as real estate and art.

 

House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday the plan has plenty of appeal but that it may only bring in $200 billion to $250 billion, requiring fellow Democrats to rely on other revenue raisers to fully pay for their plan.

 

"The billionaires tax ... has an appeal, but it doesn't produce that much money," she told CNN.

 

Pelosi said lawmakers have an array of other options to fund the spending bill even without the corporate tax rate hike, including better tax enforcement and international tax harmonization.

 

Biden administration officials have said they are confident Congress will approve legislation to implement a global corporate minimum tax agreed to by 136 countries.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Twin peaks: Whether it's supply or demand, oil era heads for crunch time

(Reuters) - Energy transition and peak demand predictions have spooked investors in oil, putting the prospect of peak production sooner than anticipated accompanied by wild price spikes.

 

Key climate talks are set to begin at the end of this month in Glasgow, Scotland to tackle global warming under the 2015 Paris Agreement, with fossil fuel in policy-makers' crosshairs.

 

But as it stands now, mobility curbs which hollowed out both spending on upstream oil projects and oil end use may already be set to permanently rein in the growth of both supply and demand.

 

"On current trends, global oil supply is likely to peak even earlier than demand," the research department of bank Morgan Stanley said in a note this week.

 

"The planet puts boundaries on the amount of carbon that can safely be emitted. Therefore, oil consumption needs to peak. However, this is such a well-telegraphed prospect that it has solicited its own counter-response already: low investment."

 

Still, with most oil producers and watchdogs putting the peak to the world's thirst for oil at least several years away, demand is already veering back toward pre-pandemic levels. read more

 

The mismatch between demand for oil and other polluting fossil fuels roaring back to normal and output having lagged has helped contribute to an energy crunch in Europe and Asia, with crude prices soaring to multi-year highs. read more

 

The medium-term erosion of oil demand supposes that renewable energies like electric cars and wind power gain pace, which the International Energy Agency says needs to pick up fast in order to head off shortages and sky-high prices. read more

 

"The amount being spent on oil appears to be geared towards a world of stagnant or falling demand," the Paris-based agency said in its annual outlook this month. "A surge in spending on clean energy transitions provides the way forward, but this needs to happen quickly or global energy markets will face a bumpy road ahead."

 

The IEA does not predict an immediate peak to oil supply, with producer club OPEC and Russia comprising a rising share of supply in the next decade.

 

OPEC's annual outlook last month saw global supply nearing a plateau in 2045 but no clear peak.

 

Despite the pitfalls to prices and supply, the IEA said current low oil and gas spending was one of the few areas aligned with its most ambitious Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario in which no new fossil fuel projects should go forward.

 

In its most conservative status quo, or stated policies scenario (STEPS), however, average annual spending on oil to meet demand would need to rise sharply to above $500 billion - more than at any time in the last five years.

 

Energy consultancy FGE said in a note the problem was not an immediate one, but could come to a crescendo in coming years.

 

"Although there are huge concerns regarding the state of upstream oil investment i.e. that, as it stands, it is insufficient to meet growing demand in the years ahead, this is a problem for 2023 and beyond not for the next 12 to 18 months."

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Asian shares firm, dollar weak as traders eye earnings

(Reuters) - Asian shares held recent gains on Monday ahead of a week packed with major quarterly earnings announcements, while news of trials of a property tax in China and ongoing troubles in the sector weighed on markets in Hong Kong and mainland China.

 

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was little changed - 0.07% higher - and still up 3.8% so far in October, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.7% on softer earnings by several local companies.

 

Futures pointed to a solid open in European markets with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.24% in early trade and FTSE futures 0.26% higher.

 

U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , gained 0.12%.

 

In Asia, the regional benchmark was dragged down by muted performances in Chinese markets with property firms weighing heavily.

 

Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) inched down 0.12%, and an real estate index (.CSI000952) shed 3%, while the Hong Kong benchmark (.HSI) traded flat despite a 3.4% fall in an index of Hong Kong listed mainland property firms (.HSMPI).

 

The property stock declines followed a Saturday announcement by China's parliament's top decision-making body that will roll out a pilot real estate tax in some regions. read more

 

Embattled developer China Evergrande Group last week appeared to avert a costly default with a last-minute bond coupon payment, and Reuters reported Monday that some bond holders had received payment. read more

 

"Although we had some news on the Evergrande front, I think we will see more pressure on the property sector, especially the smaller guys," said Carlos Casanova Asia senior economist at UBP pointing to authorities’ efforts to ensure a correction in house prices, and the expansion of plans for a pilot property tax at a time when many property companies had bonds maturing in the coming months.

 

Also on investors' minds is a string of company earnings due this week.

 

Hong Kong listed shares of HSBC , pared earlier gains to be last up 0.1% even after Europe's second largest bank by assets reported a surprise 74% rise in third quarter profit.

 

Facebook (FB.O) will publish its quarterly results later on Monday, with other benchmark heavyweights due later in the week including tech giants Microsoft (MSFT.O), Apple (AAPL.O) and Alphabet (GOOGL.O), and European and Asian financial behemoths from Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) and Lloyds (LLOY.L) to China Construction Bank and Nomura (8604.T).

 

The risk friendlier mood that supported equities has weighed on safe-haven currencies, as have rising energy prices which supported currencies including the Aussie and Canadian dollars .

 

The dollar index was last at 93.532, down 0.14% on the day, having earlier touched a one month low of 93.483.

 

Traders are waiting for U.S. third quarter GDP figures due Thursday with a weak print likely to weigh on the dollar, according to analysts at CBA, while expectations that rising inflation will drive interest rate hikes in the U.K and Australia have been supporting sterling and the Aussie dollar.

 

Markets are still trying to position themselves for a widely expected tapering of the U.S. stimulus programme this year, and the possibility of rate hikes late in 2022

 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the U.S. central bank should start the process of reducing its support of the economy by cutting back on its asset purchases, but should not yet touch interest rates. read more

 

As tapering looms, U.S. benchmark yields have been rising and yields on 10-year Treasury notes hit a five-month high of 1.7064% last week. They were last 1.6449%.

 

Oil prices rose further on Monday, with U.S. crude hitting a seven-year high as global supply remained tight amid strong demand worldwide.

 

Brent crude rose 0.83% to $86.24 a barrel, while U.S. crude (.CLc1) rose 0.80% to $84.51

 

Spot gold rose 0.36% to $1,798 an ounce after posting gains for the past two weeks on rising inflation concerns, ad the weakening dollar.

 

Bitcoin another asset oft-described as an inflation hedge was last at $62,000 up 1.8% after last week's turbulent trade when it hit a new high of $67,016.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

 

PayPal says is not pursuing acquisition of Pinterest

(Reuters) - PayPal Inc (PYPL.O)is not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest Inc (PINS.N) at this time, the online payments provider said on Sunday, responding to market rumors.

 

Earlier in the week, it was reported that the payments behemoth had offered to buy digital pinboard site Pinterest for $45 billion, or about $70 per share, mostly in stock. read more

 

Pinterest did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment outside of business hours.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Panasonic unveils prototype battery for Tesla

(Reuters) - Panasonic's battery unit head on Monday unveiled a powerful prototype battery he said will deepen business ties with U.S. electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O).

 

He also said the company had no plan to make cheaper lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for electric vehicles.

 

Kazuo Tadanobu, the head of Panasonic's energy business, spoke during a media roundtable.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Inflation genie out of the bottle: Five questions for the ECB

(Reuters) - The inflation genie is finally out of its bottle.

 

Now investors are waiting to see whether the European Central Bank on Thursday admits that price pressures are too significant to ignore. They will also want an explanation of what that means for its ultra-easy policy stance.

 

Big decisions on the future of the ECB's pandemic emergency stimulus will wait until December. But with surging energy prices and supply bottlenecks, Thursday's meeting should be anything but dull.

 

Here are five key questions on the radar for markets.

 

1/ What does high inflation mean for the policy outlook?

 

The ECB may acknowledge that a jump in price pressures is likely to last longer than anticipated, but the central bank is unlikely to abandon its dovish policy stance just yet.

 

Its 2023 inflation forecast is 1.5%, below the 2% target, and policymakers argue that tightening policy too early could hurt the economy. read more

 

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has argued that the current bout of inflation in the bloc is not a trigger for monetary policy action as growth in services prices and wages remains weak.

 

"They have to be very careful they don't scare the horses," said Craig Inches, head of rates at Royal London Asset Management. "If they come out a little bit on the hawkish side, certain peripheral markets could start to struggle."

 

Indeed, rate-hike expectations have shot up in recent weeks and markets are pricing in a 10 basis-point rate rise by the end of 2022.

 

This is out of sync with the ECB's ultra-loose monetary policy stance and is a concern if higher market lending rates trigger tighter financial conditions.

 

The aggressive re-pricing is mostly a spillover from a sharp readjustment in Britain and the United States where investors are now expecting tighter policy. Lane has already pushed back against the market pricing; ECB chief Christine Lagarde may do the same on Thursday.

 

"We expect the ECB to remain dovish, while markets may continue to hedge against an earlier tightening by the ECB," said Societe Generale senior European economist Anatoli Annenkov.

 

 

For some policymakers, changing inflation dynamics cannot be ignored. So what the ECB says about where it expects inflation to settle will be watched closely.

 

Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, a critic of the ECB's ultra-easy monetary policy, again warned of inflation risks last week as he announced his plan to step down early at the end of December. read more

 

Euro zone inflation, at 3.4%, is at its highest level since 2008 and is expected to approach 4% by year-end. One key issue is what happens if inflation expectations rise above target and signs of second-round effects on wages emerge.

 

 

Supply bottlenecks and surging energy prices mean economic headwinds have grown stronger since the September ECB meeting.

 

Germany is already feeling the strain of supply-chain bottlenecks and its top economic institutes just cut their joint forecast for 2021 growth to 2.4% from 3.7%. read more

 

And while higher energy prices are an upside risk to inflation, they also squeeze consumers' purchasing power and company profits.

 

"We are still waiting for more people at the ECB to acknowledge those significant downside risks to growth," BofA analysts said.

 

A decision on what comes after the 1.85 trillion euro pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) expires next March is expected in December, and a debate on what will follow is under way.

 

The ECB should keep some of the flexibility offered by the PEPP when it returns to more conventional policy, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau believes.

 

According to one recent report, the ECB is studying a new bond-buying scheme to prevent market disruption when the PEPP ends, complementing an existing open-ended 20 billion euro-a-month asset purchase programme.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Tesla pulls its new Full Self-Driving beta due to software 'issues'

(Reuters) - U.S. electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) on Sunday rolled back the latest version of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta software, less than a day after its release, after users complained of false collision warnings and other issues.

 

The setback comes as Tesla is under regulatory scrutiny over the safety of its semi-autonomous driving technology, which it calls "FSD."

 

 

"Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily," Chief Executive Elon Musk said in a Twitter post on Sunday.

 

"Please note, this is to be expected with beta software. It is impossible to test all hardware configs in all conditions with internal QA (quality assurance), hence public beta," he said.

 

Tesla did not immediately respond to requests for comment outside regular U.S. business hours.

 

The release of the new driving assist system to some owners of Tesla models, which the company said featured several improvements, had been announced for Friday, Oct 22.

 

On Saturday, Musk said the release would probably be delayed by a day.

 

"Regression in some left turns at traffic lights found by internal QA in 10.3. Fix in work, probably releasing tomorrow," he tweeted on Saturday.

 

The Tesla vehicles with the latest 10.3 software repeatedly provided Forward Collision Warnings when there was no immediate danger, according to video postings of beta users. Some vehicles also automatically applied brakes without reason, users said on social media posts.

 

Some users said they lost the FSD beta software entirely after having problems with the latest iteration.

 

There was no information on Sunday about a possible new date for the release, either from Musk on social media or from Tesla.

 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in August opened a formal safety probe into Tesla's Autopilot system in 765,000 U.S. vehicles after a series of crashes involving Tesla models and emergency vehicles.

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

Exxon calls for carbon price, working on CCS projects across Asia

(Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) is pursuing carbon capture storage (CCS) hubs across Asia and has started talks with some countries with potential storage options for carbon dioxide, the company's head of low carbon solutions said on Monday.

 

One of Exxon's key projects is to build CCS hubs in Southeast Asia, similar to one being built in Houston, Texas, ExxonMobil Low Carbon Solutions President Joe Blommaert told Reuters.

 

CCS traps emissions and buries them underground but is not yet at the commercialisation stage.

 

CCS advocates, including oil majors and the International Energy Agency, see the technology as being essential to help meet net zero emissions and key to unlocking large-scale economic hydrogen production, although critics say CCS will extend the life of dirty fossil fuels.

 

Melbourne-based Global CCS Institute said in October that global plans to build CCS projects surged 50% over the last nine months.

 

For CCS to take off, a transparent carbon price and cross-border pricing adjustment systems will be necessary to enable CO2 to be captured in one country and stored elsewhere, Blommaert said in an interview ahead of the Singapore International Energy Week.

 

"That's why a transparent value of carbon is so important, that it is a durable mechanism, that it is agnostic to what kind of technology that goes ... and that it works across borders because emissions do not know any borders," Blommaert said, adding he expects discussions of carbon border tax similar to that in Europe to occur in Southeast Asia.

 

"Because much of the world doesn't have carbon pricing, there's a risk that some operators will move to countries that don’t yet price emissions," he told the conference.

 

Last month, the U.S. energy major said 11 companies have agreed to begin discussing plans that could lead to capturing and storing up to 50 million tonnes per year (tpy) of CO2 in the Gulf of Mexico by 2030. read more

 

"Unlike in Houston, the storage capacity here is not close to the areas with the highest emissions," Blommaert said.

 

"That's why we've been studying the concept of placing CO2 capture hubs in some of Asia's heavy industrial areas such as here in Singapore and then connecting them to CO2 storage locations elsewhere in the region," he said, adding that CO2 could be transported via pipelines or ships.

 

Southeast Asia's industrial CO2 emissions exceeded 4 billion tpy, Blommaert said, citing 2019 data from the International Energy Agency.

 

ExxonMobil has listed Singapore, home to the major's largest refining-petrochemical centre globally, as one of its CCS projects. However, Singapore does not have suitable CO2 storage sites, a recent CCS study commissioned by Singapore government showed.

 

LOCATIONS

 

Another study by the Singapore Energy Centre, partly founded by ExxonMobil, estimated nearly 300 billion tonnes of CO2 storage capacity in depleted oil and gas fields and saline formations in Southeast Asia, Blommaert said.

 

Countries in the region with potential storage sites include Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia where ExxonMobil has oil and gas production facilities. The U.S. major also operates a joint refining-petrochemical complex in eastern China Fujian with Sinopec and Saudi Aramco.

 

"We continue to evaluate all options around the world, and that includes some of those locations," Blommaert said, without naming countries.

 

"If you have a very high concentration of carbon dioxide stream that will represent, possibly a lower cost (for CCS)," Blommaert said.

 

"The market for CO2 is rather limited when you put it into that scale, and therefore storage of CO2 long term is essential."

 

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2021

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

National Unity Day

 

December 22

 


 

Christmas Day

 

December 25

 


 

Boxing Day

 

December 26

 


 

Public Holiday in lieu of Boxing Day falling on a Sunday

 

December 27

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


ART

PPC

 

 


Starafrica

Fidelity

Turnall

 


Medtech

Zimre

Nampak Zimbabwe

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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