Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 November 2022

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 November 2022

 

 	

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 	


ZSE commentary

 

ZSE records gains in month-ending session.

ZSE capped the month of November in the positive territory as heavy and
midcap counters sustained the market. The mainstream All Share Index
extended 0.47% to 14577.46pts as the Top Ten Index grew 0.12% to 8495.75pts.
The Mid-Cap Index improved 0.67% to 32888.85pts while, the Agriculture Index
was the only faller amongst its kind trimming 0.56% to 72.30pts. Mashonaland
Holdings led the winners of the day on a 12.36% jump to $20.0000 as its YTD
gains widened to 150%. Banking group NMB followed on a 12.04% surge to close
$29.9713 while, agriculture concern Ariston rose 10.23% to $3.9982. First
Capital edged up 7.56% to $10.2822 following the announcement that its
leased property, Kingdom Hotel a subsidiary of African Sun will cease
operations on the 5th of January after a lease dispute. Delta

which is now trading ex-dividend capped the top five risers of the day after
putting on 1.30% to $235.2601 having traded a high of $240.0000 in the
session.

 

The worst performer of the day was OKZIM that retreated 6.01% to $28.1018
trailed by Dairibord which shed 4.08% to $39.9656. Tea company Tanganda
slipped 2.66% to settle at $81.1159 as cigarette manufacturer BAT let go
1.62% to $3,049.6667. Fintech group Ecocash capped the top five shakers of
the day on a 1.05% fall to $34.9545. Volume of shares traded ballooned
553.75% to 5.48m while, market spend garnered 164.96% to $190.41m. NMB was
the top volume and value driver with respective  ontributions of 60.87% and
52.66% in that order. Other notable volume drivers were Star Africa and
Econet which claimed a combined 27.21%. On the VFEX, Padenga added 0.22% to
end at USD$0.2305 as SeedCO International ticked up 0.77% to USD$0.3124. A
total of 195,873 shares worth USD$45,202.12 exchanged hands on the VFEX.
Four ETFs traded in the positive today, with Datvest MCS leading the way
after gaining 10.80% to end pegged at $1.6983. Old Mutual ETF, MIZ and
Morgan and Co MCS trailed with gains of 1.10%, 0.44% and 0.03% in that
order. Meanwhile, Tigere REIT listed on the ZSE today, trading will commence
tomorrow

efesecurities

 

 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

 

 

South Africa

 

South African rand flat after trade and budget data

The dollar =USD was up around 0.24% against a basket of currencies, as
investors braced for comments later from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell and a key monthly jobs report due at the end of the week.

 

South Africa's October trade ZATBAL=ECI data showed a deficit of 4.31
billion rand, while analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a trade
surplus of 16.85 billion rand.

 

Meanwhile, data from National Treasury showed South Africa's budget deficit
ZABUDM=ECIstood at 40.57 billion rand in October.

 

 

Also on Wednesday, a panel of experts submitted its recommendations to the
speaker of parliament on whether there is sufficient preliminary evidence
for an impeachment process against President Cyril Ramaphosa. Its
conclusions are expected to be released later in the day.

 

Shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange rose, with the Top-40 index .JTOPI
up 2.62%, while the broader all-share index .JALSH closed 2.32% higher.

 

The South African government's benchmark 2030 bond ZAR2030= was weaker, with
the yield up 5.5 basis points to 10.285%.

 

 

 

Nigeria

 

Weak naira, cross-border payments drive Nigerians into cryptos

The depreciation of the naira against the dollar and seamless access to
cross-border transactions are seen as the main factors driving millions of
Nigerians into cryptocurrency.

 

A recent report by Triple A, a cryptocurrency analysis platform, estimated
that over 22 million Nigerians, 10.3 percent of Nigeria's total population,
owned cryptocurrency as of the third quarter of 2022.

 

 

The report shows that 6.3 percent of the population owned cryptocurrency in
2021, which represents about 63 percent increase in ownership within a
period of one year.

 

Experts who spoke to BusinessDay said crypto ownership increased in Nigeria
because the blockchain serves as a currency devaluation hedge and offers
easy means of foreign transactions without restrictions, which may require
numerous steps to achieve using the Nigerian payment policy.

 

"A demographic analysis of Nigerian users will no doubt show a heavy skew
towards Gen Z. There are a number of factors that could be attributed to
this surge but the most obvious remains that it acts as a currency
devaluation hedge, especially if converted to stablecoins," Ibrahim
Shelleng, a business development expert, said.

 

"It provides a seamless and convenient method of making cross-border
payments without the excessive charges and bureaucracy of traditional
channels. As an investment outlet, even though it is a volatile asset class,
it has been lucrative to many traders but also the downturns have been
hard-hitting. Despite this, it has remained an attractive asset class for
younger, more risk-taking investors," he added.

 

Shelleng said another factor is that crypto companies such as Binance have
carried out massive marketing campaigns in Nigeria to encourage more users.

 

"There are a lot of Nigerians, especially tech guys, working remotely for
foreign entities and are being paid in crypto at any given time without
undergoing stressful payment channels," he said.

 

Ebuka Anichebe, managing director of Jean-Paul and Associates Consultancy,
said, "A lot of Nigerian youths who are millennials but mostly Gen Z are
inadvertently drawn towards the use of cryptocurrency platforms like Binance
or Trust Wallet not necessarily because of the anonymity and security that
blockchain provides, but most especially as a result of the fact that it is
easier to do forex transactions and transfers using the peer-to-peer trading
option provided."

 

He said crypto platforms now allow Nigerian users to conveniently transfer
millions of dollars for payments of goods and services with almost
negligible transfer fees and in mere minutes instead of days when using
traditional banks.

 

Anichebe said most Nigerians using these platforms may not necessarily be
trading in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum but use the platform to
carry out transactions in stablecoins and tokens like USDT and eNaira.

 

He added that some save money in dollars or USDT using the crypto wallets as
a hedge against naira depreciation and convert them when needed.

 

He said: "It doesn't help that the naira is depreciating. So investing in
naira-based investments often is seen as a complete waste of time. For
instance, if your stocks should do an 18 percent uptick in gains within a
calendar year, that profit in reality is already eroded by the 25 percent
depreciation of the naira against the dollar.

 

"So we invest in cryptocurrencies as a new asset class because during the
bull run, stupendously fabulous profits can be made. I once did a $100 bet
and got $4,800 within a week, which Nigerian company listed on our stock
exchange or elsewhere can ever boast of that, even in five years."

 

Raphael Idu, a financial market analyst at CT Traders, said the majority of
platforms coming up today are making use of mostly crypto options for
payment.

 

Idu said: "We used to have dollar cards, PayPal and others. If you want to
deposit forex, for instance, you will need something like PayPal and
Payoneer. There were difficulties using PayPal and you can't enjoy easy
transactions.

 

"To even get and fund a dollar card as a Nigerian is also difficult. Instead
of striving to get and fund a dollar card, people now prefer buying USDT and
transferring from address to address, rather than taking these long
processes."

 

The analyst said Nigerians are also in search of jobs that will enable them
to earn in dollars to escape naira depreciation.

 

Idu said: "Naira is depreciating. Some of these online jobs are paying with
PayPal, USD currency-created cards, and crypto. It is easier for me to say
that I want to receive my payment in crypto and save it in USDT, which is a
stablecoin.

 

"Most people who also earn in naira want to save in dollars; so they buy
crypto to save up and when the naira depreciates, it goes to their favour.
If you buy 10 dollars' worth of USDT when a dollar is N450 and you spent
N4,500 buying USDT and refused to sell it then, you will now have a choice
to double your money now when a dollar is equal to N750. Also, if you
withdraw from PayPal, it can take like eight hours but crypto will deliver
within five minutes."

 

Innocent Ebiega, chief executive officer at The Milliosphere, said the high
rate of unemployment in the country is another factor driving Nigerians into
crypto.

 

Ebiega said: "The economy is barren now and a mass number of youths are
jobless, and this is a major driver. You just need the knowledge and
frequent interaction with the crypto space to start earning.

 

"If you have a dollar account now, there is an amount you can transact in a
day, especially when trying to buy things online, and Nigerians don't really
have such tolerance. So crypto makes it easier to move money online and
carry out limitless purchases."

 

He said there is also opportunity in crypto where Nigerians buy and sell
dollars for different prices, adding that dollars can also be purchased at a
lower price and sold at a higher price using crypto platforms.

 

"The devaluation of naira is playing a major role. The way inflation is
rising in the country, Nigerians find it better to store in dollars to take
anytime needed and that brings them to crypto stablecoins. People are now
changing their naira to crypto. They are switching to higher currency that
gives them a better store of value over time. Most times, you get more than
what you have put in," he added.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

Global Markets

 

Dollar dips as Powell says rate hikes may slow

(Reuters) - The dollar dipped on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell said that the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of
its interest rate hikes "as soon as December," helping to put the dollar
index on track for its worst month since 2010.

 

Powell said at the Brookings Institution in Washington that "we think that
slowing down at this point is a good way to balance the risks."

 

"He's basically telling the market that they're slowing down," said Joe
Perry, senior market analyst at FOREX.COM in New York. "I think that gave
permission for stocks to take off and the dollar to turn lower."

 

Still, Powell cautioned that the fight against inflation was far from over
and that key questions remain unanswered, including how high rates will
ultimately need to rise and for how long.

 

Fed funds futures traders are now pricing for the fed funds rates to peak at
4.95% in May, compared with expectations for a top of 5.06% in June that was
priced in this morning. The U.S. central bank is expected to hike rates by
an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14.

 

The dollar index has fallen from a 20-year high of 114.78 on Sept. 28 as
investors look toward the U.S. central bank reaching a peak rate early next
year with inflation pressures expected to subside and growing concerns about
an economic downturn.

 

The index fell 0.99% to 105.78 on Wednesday and is on track for a 5.10%
decline this month, the largest since since Sept. 2010. The greenback also
dipped 0.72% to 137.70 yen and is on course for a 7.39% loss against the
Japanese currency this month, the worst since Dec. 1998.

 

The euro rose 0.95% against the U.S. currency to $1.0424. The single
currency is on course for a 5.52% monely gain, the most since Sept. 2010.

 

The greenback had dipped earlier on Wednesday after the ADP National
Employment report showed that U.S. private payrolls increased far less than
expected in November, suggesting demand for labor was cooling amid high
interest rates. Other data also showed that U.S job openings fell in
October.

 

"You have the data potentially reaching a turning point, which is celebrated
by the market because it reinforces that expectation that the Fed is not
only downshifting, but maybe yields are nearing a limited runway in terms of
how much more tightening there is to go," said Mazen Issa, a senior FX
strategist at TD Securities in New York.

 

The negative jobs data was somewhat offset by a report showing that the U.S.
economy rebounded more strongly than initially thought in the third quarter,
with gross domestic product increasing at a 2.9% annualized rate.

 

A Fed report on Wednesday, meanwhile, showed that U.S. economic activity was
about flat or up only slightly from mid October through late November and
there were mixed signals on the persistence of inflation and labor
shortages.

 

A European survey on Wednesday showed that euro zone inflation eased far
more than expected in November, raising hopes that sky-high price growth is
now past its peak and bolstering, if not outright sealing the case for a
slowdown in European Central Bank rate hikes next month.

 

The Aussie also jumped on hopes that China will ease stringent COVID
restrictions which have raised concerns about global growth. The southern
city of Guangzhou became the latest to announce an easing of curbs on
Wednesday.

 

The Australian dollar was last up 1.67% at $0.6799, after reaching as high
as $0.6801, the highest since Sept. 13. It is on track for a 6.23% gain this
month, the most since March 2016.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

 

Commodities Markets



 

Gold price sees modest up-tick on Fed Chair Powell's speech

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly higher in midday U.S. trading
Wednesday and saw the gains come following the release of prepared text of a
highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Markets are deeming his remarks as leaning slightly more dovish than
expected. February gold was last up $8.50 at $1,772.10 and March silver was
up $0.644 at $22.08.

 

It was a very busy day for U.S. economic data, with the highlight being the
speech by Powell this afternoon at the Brookings Institution. In his
prepared remarks, Powell said the U.S. central bank could slow the pace of
tightening as soon as the December meeting. However, he said the Fed will
need to hold policy at restrictive levels "for some time." Powell added that
inflation remains far too high and that future rate hikes are warranted. The
gold market up-ticked on the news. Traders and investors were watching to
see if Powell made a more significant pivot from a hawkish to a bit more
dovish U.S. monetary policy stance, given recent U.S. economic data that
hints inflation may have peaked.

 

Other U.S. data released today were a mixed bag. The third-quarter GDP
report came in a bit stronger than expected, while the ADP national
employment report was a bit weaker than expected.

 

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are
mixed at midday.

 

Reports said public demonstrations in China increased significantly
Wednesday after a lull on Tuesday. China security forces are reported to be
heavily deployed in major Chinese cities. The protests have prompted Chinese
officials to somewhat ease their strict Covid restrictions.

 

 

 

Gold prices stuck in neutral as hedge fund-induced short squeeze runs out of
steam

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude
oil prices are higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month low
Monday, and are trading around $80.25 a barrel. There are some reports OPEC
at its meeting next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil
production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production
unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
is presently at 3.746%.

 

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a
close above solid resistance at the November high of $1,806.00. Bears' next
near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid
technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of
$1,779.00 and then at $1,790.00. First support is seen at this week's low of
$1,752.90 and then at $1,740.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

 

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a choppy three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the November high of $22.50. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00.
First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.14 and then at the November
high of $22.50. Next support is seen at today's low of $21.355 and then at
$21.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

 

March N.Y. copper closed up 915 points at 373.15 cents today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The copper bulls have gained the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the November high of 394.70 cents. The next downside price objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today's high of 376.55 cents and then at 380.00 cents.
First support is seen at today's low of 363.40 cents and then at this week's
low of 354.70 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2022

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

National Unity Day

 

December 22

 

 	

 

Christmas Day

 

December 25

 

 	

 

Boxing Day

 

December 26

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

Meikles

Fidelity

 

 	

TSL

FMHL

Turnall

 

 	

GBH

ZBFH

GetBucks

 

 	

Zeco

Lafarge

Zimre

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	

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