Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15 February 2022

Tue Feb 15 16:18:32 CAT 2022

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15 February 2022

 <http://www.firstcapitalbank.co.zw/> 

ZSE commentary

The ZSE saw a 2.20% rise in capitalization in a mixed trading session. Gains
were supported by mid-cap stocks and select blue-chip stocks. Activity
levels were at 555 trades. Star Africa was the most active stock at 37
trades followed by Delta and Innscor at 35 and 24 trades respectively.
Investor sentiment was positive after the session yielded 20 risers against
13 decliners while 7 (seven) of the active stocks remained unchanged.
Masimba anchored volume aggregate trading 2,650,700 shares and Seed Co.
anchored value aggregate with a value of ZW$217.88 million. The All-Share
Index added 2.13% to close at 14,550.63 points. The Top 10 Index added
1.89%. The Top 15 Index also added 2.35%. The Medium Cap Index was up by
3.06% to 23,962.97 points whilst the Small Cap Index shaded 0.21% to
396,463.81 points.

Leading the risers pack of the day was National Foods closed at 168,000c and
Seed Co.was up by 19.83%. NMB Holdings added 15.12% and African Distillers
added 8.92% to 13,834.89c. Mashonaland Holdings was up by 6.00%. Mitigating
the gains were losses in Unifreight and Masimba which shaded 20.00% and
9.91% respectively. Medtech Holdings was down by 8.00%. CBZ Holdings and
Innscor shaded 6.62% and 3.53% respectively. The ETFs traded 143,269 units
worth ZW$1,549,530.69 in 65 trades. The Old Mutual Top 10 ETF shaded 0.50%
to close at 797.32c while the Morgan and Co Multi Sector ETF added 4.24% to
close at 1,359.12c. On the VFEX, Padenga remained unchanged at US 21c after
5,606 shares were traded...-wealthaccesssecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand gains as gold hits 8-month high

(Reuters) - The South African rand gained early on Tuesday, as gold prices
climbed to an eight-month high on safe-haven demand amid heightened tensions
between Russia and the West over Ukraine.

At 0610 GMT, the rand traded at 15.0900 against the dollar, around 0.3%
stronger than its previous close.

Gold, a key South African export, hit its highest since mid-June and was
last trading up 0.4% as investors contemplated the implications of a
possible Russian attack on Ukraine. read more

Also supporting the rand, the dollar (.DXY) dipped 0.2% against a basket of
currencies.

The rand has been relatively resilient recently in the face of hawkish
signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, but analysts have cautioned that
could change if Russia invades Ukraine and market sentiment badly sours.

In the rand's favour are South Africa's strong terms of trade linked to high
commodity prices, relatively high real yields and fresh reform pledges by
President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Domestic economic data releases that could alter the picture this week
include January consumer inflation figures (ZACPIY=ECI) and December retail
sales (ZARET=ECI) on Wednesday.

Ramaphosa is set to hold a media briefing at 0900 GMT on Tuesday where he
will take questions on last week's State of the Nation Address.

The government's benchmark 2030 bond was little changed in early deals, with
the yield dipping 0.5 basis points to 9.215%.

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Ghana

Cedi depreciates 4.70% to dollar in only 45 days of 2022

The Ghana cedi has depreciated by 4.70% to the US dollar with only 45 days
into the year, as pressure mounts on the local currency.

This ranks it the second worst performing currency in Africa, among 15 top
performing currencies.

It is presently trading at ¢6.60 to one US dollar on the forex market.

The Zambian kwacha which was one of the top performing currencies in Africa
in 2021, surprisingly, is the worst so far this year. It has declined in
value by 11.29% to the dollar.

Analysts have attributed the cedi’s problem to upside risks to the economy
including high debt and interest payments, inadequate revenue and rising
expenditure.

This has led to selling pressures by investors in Ghana’s international
bonds and the lack of access to the international capital markets

To this end, credit rating agencies, Moody’s and Fitch reviewed Ghana’s
credit worthiness downwards.

The revised credit rating has however complicated Ghana’s capacity to borrow
from the international bond market, whilst paying higher interest or premium
on existing bonds to investors.

Cedi depreciation conditions in quarter 4 to persist till June 2022

The conditions that triggered the persistent depreciation of the cedi during
the latter part of last year is expected to  persist till the end of the
first half of 2022, Databank Research has projected.

The local currency, it said, remains vulnerable to foreign portfolio
outflows amidst the elevated import demand.

The heightened uncertainty around Ghana’s fiscal outlook worsened the local
currency’s woes in the latter part of 2021.

Again, the low prospect of an early-2022 Treasury issuance on the
international capital market also exposes the cedi to depreciation pressure
in the first half of this year.

AFRICA TOP PERFORMING CURRENCIES  

CURRENCY  YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE             RANKING

South African rand 4.56%         1st

Namibian dollar     4.49%         2nd

Botswana pula      1.76%         3rd

Uganda shilling     0.84%         4th

Egypt Pound         0.02%         5th

Coted’lvoire CFA   0.00%         5th

Malawi kwacha     0.00%         5th

Tunisia dinar         0.07%         8th

Tanzania shilling   -0.01%        9th

Kenya shilling       -0.43%        10th

Mauritius rupee     -0.43%        10th

Nigerian naira       -0.82%        12th

Morocco dirham    -1.18%        13th

Ghana cedi -4.70%        14th

Zambian kwacha   -11.29%      15%

Tags:   Fitch Ghana cedi Moody's Zambian kwacha

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar gains as Ukraine worries rise, Bullard reiterates rate comments

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar index reached a two-week high on Monday on
growing worries about Russia-Ukraine tensions and as St. Louis Federal
Reserve President James Bullard reiterated calls for faster U.S. Federal
Reserve interest rate hikes.

The index briefly jumped further in afternoon trading after Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians to fly the country's flags
from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date
some Western media have cited as the possible start of a Russian invasion.
read more

The comments spooked investors, who have fled to the safe-haven dollar amid
the escalating geopolitical problem, but the dollar index quickly came off
those highs.

Ukrainian officials said Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack on that
date, but instead responding with skepticism to foreign media reports.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was deeply worried
about "increased speculation" about a military conflict, and urged world
leaders to step up diplomacy to calm the situation. read more

Washington had said Russia could invade Ukraine "any day now," and British
Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday called the situation "very, very
dangerous."

The dollar index was last up 0.4% at 96.3090 after reaching 96.4410, its
highest since Feb. 1.

The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen at 115.57 , while the
dollar was also nearly flat against the Swiss franc at 0.9252 franc. .

Earlier Monday, Bullard also said four strong inflation reports in a row
warranted action and that the central bank needed to "ratify" market
expectations of its upcoming moves. read more

Last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report has
driven speculation the Fed might raise rates by a full 50 basis points in
March.

The move into safe-haven assets has overshadowed expectations for monetary
policy tightening from the European Central Bank. ECB President Christine
Lagarde also recently reiterated that any policy action would be gradual.

Against the dollar, the euro was down 0.4% at $1.1301.

The Fed will release its January meeting minutes on Wednesday.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 0.2% at around $42,169 .

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold slips off 8-month high, palladium drops as Russia-Ukraine worries ease

(Reuters) - Gold prices retreated from a multi-month peak on Tuesday while
palladium slipped more than 5% as news about some Russian troops near
Ukraine returning to their bases drove a rebound in riskier assets.

Spot gold was down 1.3% to $1,846.46 per ounce by 1318 GMT, after hitting
its highest level since June 11 at $1,879.48.

U.S. gold futures fell nearly 1% to $1,851.00.

Stocks and other risky assets made a modest recovery, halting a market
selloff over several days, following signs of a de-escalation in
geopolitical tensions.

Bullion is considered a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, but
interest rate hikes would raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion.

Caught in gold's slipstream, spot silver fell 2.7% to $23.18 per ounce,
platinum was down 1.4% at $1,014.04, and palladium dipped 3.4% to $2,280.03.

Palladium has seen sharp rallies of late, having logged its best month in 14
years in January, with analysts flagging a possible disruption to supply
from key producer Russia if the Ukraine conflict escalates.

Market participants also kept a tab on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike
plans, with officials continuing to spar over how aggressively to begin
upcoming rate increases at their March meeting. read more

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Copper edges higher as Russian troops return to base

(Reuters) - Copper prices ticked higher on Tuesday after Russia returned
some troops to base after exercises near Ukraine, easing fears about a
potential invasion and boosting financial markets.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.4% to $9,955 a
tonne in official open-outcry trading after a 0.6% gain the previous day.

It was unclear how many Russian units were being withdrawn to their bases
after an estimated 130,000 Russian troops had been moved close to the
Ukraine border.

Any downside moves, including knee-jerk reactions to faster than expected
U.S. monetary tightening, would be a buying opportunity, Torlizzi added.

He has targets of $11,000 for copper, $3,500 for aluminium and $30,000 for
nickel.

With physical buying in China expected to start picking up in the next few
weeks as the economy returns to normal after the Lunar New Year holidays,
visible copper stocks are likely to remain at multi-year lows in the near
term, said CRU analyst Craig Lang.

* LME aluminium , which has been supported by worries about the potential of
sanctions hitting Russian supply, slipped 0.6% to $3,194 a tonne.

* The premium on LME cash aluminium over the three-month contract rose to
$51.25 a tonne by Monday's close for its highest since July 2018, indicating
tightening nearby supplies. It retreated to $28 on Tuesday.

* LME zinc gained 0.9% in official activity to $3,605, nickel advanced 1.6%
to $23,550, lead was up 0.4% at $2,296 and tin rose 0.3% to $43,400.

* MMG Ltd (1208.HK) plans to ramp up production to normal levels at its Las
Bambas copper mine in Peru after a group of local communities agreed to a
45-day truce with the government over protests and road blockades that had
halted output.

* For the top stories in metals and other news, click or

($1 = 6.3498 Chinese yuan)

The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

INVESTORS DIARY 2022

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Cafca

AGM

Feb 24, 12PM  

Ariston

AGM

Royal Harare Golf Club

Feb 24, 3PM

Counters trading under cautionary

ART

Seed co Int.

Starafrica

Medtech

Turnall

Seed co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
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any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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