Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 11 October 2022

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Tue Oct 11 10:27:56 CAT 2022


	
 


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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 11 October 2022 

 


 

 


 <https://wwww.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


 

ü  Asia chipmaker shares slide after US curbs on China

ü  Bank warns of material risk to financial stability

ü  Unemployment at lowest rate in nearly 50 years

ü  Hong Kong declines to act on sanctioned Russian superyacht in harbour

ü  Air France Crash: Aviation bosses heckled as trial begins

ü  China's electric car market is booming but can it last?

ü  Ben Bernanke, former US Federal Reserve chief, wins Nobel Prize

ü  Post Office and Fujitsu to face inquiry over Horizon scandal

ü  Big and painful cuts needed to fix budget, says IFS

ü  Kwasi Kwarteng: Investors wary as economic plan brought forward

ü  Nigeria Can Become World Leader in Digital Economy - Osinbajo

ü  Nigeria Ranks 86th in the World By Digital Quality of Life - Study

ü  Nigeria Fighting Inflation With Wrong Weapon

ü  Tanzania, Kenya Agree to Fast-Track Construction of Gas Pipeline Project

ü  Ghana: Cocoa Farmers Deserve to Enjoy Fruits of Their Labour

ü  Mozambique: Government Promised IMF Big Wage and Staff Cuts

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

Asia chipmaker shares slide after US curbs on China

Shares in major Asian computer chipmakers have slumped after the US announced tough new measures to restrict sales of technology to China.

 

The US said it will ban American firms from selling certain chips used for supercomputers and artificial intelligence to Chinese firms.

 

The rules, which were announced on Friday, also target sales from non-US companies that use American equipment.

 

Technology firms are also seeing demand fall as the global economy slows.

 

On Tuesday, shares in Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC tumbled more than 8%, Tokyo Electron in Japan fell 5.5% and South Korea's Samsung Electronics lost 1.4%.

 

The falls came after stock markets in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea reopened after being closed for public holidays on Monday.

 

Elsewhere in Asia, shares in China's biggest chipmaker SMIC fell by 4% in Hong Kong.

 

Under the regulations US companies must apply for a licence to supply Chinese chipmakers with equipment that can produce more advanced chips.

 

Washington said the rules were aimed at curbing Chinese military and technological advances.

 

The measures, some of which take effect immediately, mark one of the biggest shifts in US policy toward exporting technology to China in decades.

 

In the US on Monday, the technology-heavy Nasdaq index closed at its lowest level since July 2020 as shares in chipmakers Intel, Nvidia, Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices fell.

 

Technology shares around the world have also been hit in recent weeks by lower demand for electronic products ranging from computers to smartphones.

 

On Friday, South Korean technology giant Samsung warned of a 32% slide in its profits.

 

The world's biggest maker of smartphones said profits from its microprocessor making business suffered as global prices of memory chips plunged due to weakening demand for consumer electronics.

 

Nomura research analysts Sonal Varma and Si Ying Toh said "The chip downturn suggests a deeper export decline lies ahead."

 

"So far, export growth has already turned negative in September in India, but the evidence is growing that export growth across more Asian economies will turn negative in Q4," they said in a note on Tuesday.-BBC

 

 

 

Bank warns of material risk to financial stability

The Bank of England has been forced to step in for a second day running to boost its emergency bond-buying scheme.

 

The emergency move came as it warned a sell-off of government bonds was a "material risk" to financial stability.

 

The Bank said it would buy a wider range of bonds to help "restore orderly market conditions".

 

On Monday, government borrowing costs rose sharply after the Bank increased the amount of bonds it was buying before the scheme ends on Friday.

 

The Bank is hoping its latest move will guard against "dysfunction" in the debt market.

 

It said it had seen a "further significant repricing" of government bonds since the start of the week.

 

 

"Dysfunction in this market, and the prospect of self-reinforcing 'fire sale' dynamics pose a material risk to UK financial stability," it warned.

 

The Bank said it would now buy a wider range of bonds as well as continue to buy bonds as part of the original emergency measures it launched on 28 September in the wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget which spooked markets.

 

The move came after its announcement on Monday that it would double the amount of bonds it would buy and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng brought forward the date of his economic plan to balance the government's finances in an attempt to reassure investors.

 

However, investors remained nervous and sent long-term government borrowing costs up close to the level they were at after the mini-budget.

 

In the wake of the September mini-budget, the pound slumped to a record low, government borrowing costs surged and the Bank of England was forced to step in and take emergency action after the dramatic market movements put some pension funds at risk of collapse.

 

The volatility eased but on Monday the yields - or effective interest rates - on UK government bonds were almost at the levels seen at the height of the market turmoil.

 

Overnight, the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank warned that Mr Kwarteng must make "big and painful cuts" of up to £60bn to balance the books when he announces his economic plan on 31 October.-BBC

 

 

 

Unemployment at lowest rate in nearly 50 years

The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in nearly 50 years, latest official figures show.

 

The jobless rate fell to 3.5% in the three months to August, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the lowest since early 1974

 

However, the squeeze on pay remains, with rises in regular wages failing to keep up with the rising cost of living.

 

When taking the rise in prices into account, the value of regular pay fell by 2.9%, the ONS said.

 

The ONS said that regular pay - which excludes bonuses - grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the June to August period.

 

This is the strongest growth in regular pay seen outside of the coronavirus pandemic period, the UK statistics body said.

 

However, pay rises are still lagging behind inflation - the rate at which prices rise - which currently stands at 9.9%.

 

There was also a further sign that the jobs market may have peaked, with the number of job vacancies falling again.

 

The estimated number of vacancies in the three months to September fell by 46,000 to 1,246,000. The ONS said this was the largest fall since mid-2020 during the Covid pandemic, although the level of vacancies remains close to all-time highs.

 

Unemployment graphic

ONS head of labour market and household statistics David Freeman said the number of people neither working nor looking for work continued to rise.

 

The economic inactivity rate increased to 21.7% in the June to August period, the ONS said, with those inactive because they are long-term sick hitting a record high.

 

Mr Freeman added: "While the number of job vacancies remains high after its long period of rapid growth, it has now dropped back a little, with a number of employers telling us they've reduced recruitment due to a variety of economic pressures."

 

However, Ruth Gregory at Capital Economics said that while there were "tentative signs that the labour market is cooling from the red-hot conditions seen in recent months.

 

"That will maintain intense pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates aggressively over the coming months," she added.

 

Reacting to the figures, the Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, said "the fundamentals of the UK economy remain resilient".

 

"Our ambitious Growth Plan will drive sustainable long term growth, meaning higher wages and better living standards for everyone, and we are cutting taxes so people can keep more of what they earn," he added.

 

-BBC

 

 

Hong Kong declines to act on sanctioned Russian superyacht in harbour

Hong Kong has said it will not seize the superyacht of a Russian oligarch who is under Western sanctions.

 

Chief executive John Lee said Hong Kong would be accountable to United Nations sanctions but not "unilateral" ones imposed by "individual jurisdictions".

 

The $521m (£472m) boat belongs to Alexei Mordashov, an ally of Russia's President Vladimir Putin and one of the country's richest men.

 

His yacht arrived in Hong Kong last week after sailing from Russia.

 

But Mr Mordashov is not believed to be on it. The billionaire was sanctioned by the US, the UK and the EU after Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year.

 

But Hong Kong's government said it was not bound by those sanctions. For close to a week now, the multi-storey Nord superyacht has been a conspicuous sight in the city's Victoria Harbour with the Russian flag flying at its mast.

 

 

"We will comply with United Nations sanctions, that is our system, that is our rule of law," said Mr Lee, who has himself been sanctioned by the US for his role in implementing Hong Kong's repressive national security law.

 

The US, EU and UK have sanctioned hundreds of Russians and their businesses. China, however, has remained a Russian ally and has so far not condemned Moscow's decision to invade Ukraine.

 

"Hong Kong's reputation as a financial centre depends on adherence to international laws and standards," a US State Department spokesman said. "The possible use of Hong Kong as a safe haven by individuals evading sanctions from multiple jurisdictions further calls into question the transparency of the business environment."

 

It's unclear how long the superyacht will remain in Hong Kong's waters.

 

Mr Mordashov's spokesman told Bloomberg News the steel tycoon was in Moscow. Prior to the war in Ukraine, he was Russia's richest man, according to Forbes, with a $29.1 billion fortune built through his steel and mining company Severstal.

 

The Nord is believed to be his biggest yacht asset. The 465-foot (141m) yacht is larger than a football field and is described as one of the world's most extravagant boats, according to Forbes.

 

The billionaire had already lost one of his smaller boats, the 215ft Lady M, to Western sanctions in March after it was seized by Italian police in the port of Imperia.

 

Several Russian oligarchs' boats have been seized or denied entry to European ports this year under Western sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.

 

That's prompted the movement of such boats to areas around the world considered beyond the reach of Western sanctions- including ports around Asia, Turkey and the Caribbean.-BBC

 

 

 

Air France Crash: Aviation bosses heckled as trial begins

The bosses of Airbus and Air France have been greeted with cries of "shame" at the opening of a long-awaited trial in Paris connected with a deadly 2009 plane crash off Brazil.

 

The firms deny involuntary manslaughter in the loss of the Airbus A330 flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris.

 

Investigators found the pilots had lost control when air-speed sensors froze, and all 228 people on board died.

 

Families of the deceased have campaigned for years for a trial.

 

Relatives shouted protests as Air France Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Anne Rigail and Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury expressed their condolences during opening statements.

 

Mr Faury told reporters "it will be a difficult trial" and that the company wanted to contribute to "truth and understanding". Ms Rigail expressed "the deepest compassion" after telling the court Air France would never forget its worst ever accident.

 

But Mr Faury's remarks met cries of "shame" and "too little, too late".

 

"Thirteen years we have been waiting for this day and we have prepared for a long time," Daniele Lamy, who lost her son in the crash, told Reuters news agency before the hearing.

 

The Air France Flight 447 crashed hours after departing from Rio de Janeiro, having run into a high altitude thunderstorm.

 

After a years-long search for the plane's black boxes, investigators concluded that speed sensors on the plane failed and gave false readings, causing the plane to stall.

 

The pilots then failed to follow correct procedure and lost control of the aircraft, which plunged 38,000ft (11,580 m) into the ocean. The captain was on a break when problems began and investigators concluded that the co-pilots did not have the training to deal with malfunctioning equipment.

 

Judges had initially charged both the airline and manufacturer with manslaughter, but the prosecutor then recommended that only Air France should go on trial. In September 2019 charges against both were dropped, because there were not enough grounds to prosecute.

 

That decision was challenged, and in May last year the Paris appeals court decided that both Air France and Airbus should face trial.

 

Both firms risk a maximum fine of €225,000 (£200,000; $218,500) in a trial expected to last several weeks.-BBC

 

 

 

China's electric car market is booming but can it last?

If you want to understand how governments can fuel the rise of new technologies, look no further than the taxi fleets of Beijing.

 

Five years ago, the city revealed plans to ban the introduction of fossil fuel-powered taxis. Today, thousands of the cars run on batteries instead. And the drivers of these electric vehicles (EVs) don't have to worry about wasting time at charging stations, either.

 

Many electric taxis in Beijing, and dozens of other Chinese cities, just go to a battery-swapping station where a machine plucks out the depleted battery and installs a charged one in mere minutes.

 

"They want to drive out there and earn some money so they definitely don't want to wait two hours for EV charging," explains I-Yun Lisa Hsieh from National Taiwan University.

 

This is just one facet of the increasingly diverse and booming market for electric cars in China. Members of the public are also snapping up EVs in unprecedented numbers.

 

In July, the China Passenger Car Association predicted that 6 million new EVs would be registered in the country in 2022 - a revision of its previous forecast of 5.5 million EVs to be sold this year.

 

 

Tesla had its best ever month in China in September, according to its most recent figures, selling 83,135 cars.

 

Nearly a quarter of all cars newly registered in China are now electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, meaning that the country is ahead of Europe and well ahead of the US in adoption of these technologies. Half the world's EVs are sold in China.

 

And this is largely driven by government mandates and incentives, says Mr Hsieh. For more than a decade, the Chinese government has subsidised EV purchases. The value of these subsidies has fallen over time, and they are due to end by 2023, but there are still plenty of reasons why buying an electric car is a financial no-brainer.

 

Many buyers of new fossil fuel vehicles in China have to pay out, not only for the car, but the licence plate as well. "It's really expensive," says Mr Hsieh. A new licence plate in Shanghai costs nearly 100,000 yuan (£12,500; $14,000).

 

There are other perks if you opt for an EV instead, though they differ from city to city. In Liuzhou, authorities have allowed EV owners to drive in bus lanes. And they get access to free parking spaces as well.

 

Then there is the potentially irresistible price tag of some vehicles. The Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV bucks the trend of EVs being a relatively expensive option.

 

The Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV during the 19th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition in Shanghai on April 20, 2021.

 

 

The entry-level version of this dinky, no-frills car costs the equivalent of just £4,200 and appeals to city-dwellers and first-time car owners, says Jon Hykawy, president and director of Stormcrow Capital, a consulting and research firm.

 

"These are vehicles that could be sold through a big chunk of Asia as well," he adds.

 

The Hong Guang Mini is currently China's most popular EV. But there are a host of options at the other end of the price scale, such as Tesla's Model Y (£49,000) or Xpeng's P7 (£30,410). Both are in the list of top 10 best-selling EVs in China.

 

The Chinese EV market is enormously competitive and lots of companies are vying for a place in it. Even an airline, Juneyao, wants to start making electric cars, according to a recent report from the Reuters news agency.

 

"It's a very good environment for these manufacturers to develop technology," says Pedro Pacheco, an analyst at Gartner, noting that the range offered by some battery EVs in China is particularly good.

 

And manufacturers are filling higher-end EVs with infotainment systems and other gadgetry in a further attempt to woo consumers.

 

Lotus sports cars are on display at a factory of Wuhan Lotus Technology on July 15, 2022 in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China.

 

 

But two big questions hover over the frenzy for electric cars in China. Firstly, will it last? And secondly, how will it shape the global EV market?

 

Ana Nicolls, director of industry analysis at the Economist Intelligence Unit, says she has been surprised at just how quickly EVs have flown out of dealerships in China lately but argues that, with the removal of subsidies for purchasers of new vehicles, the appetite for EVs could wane.

 

"It's hard to see how the EV market can carry on expanding at quite this rate in the future," she says.

 

Charging infrastructure remains unevenly distributed and subject to supply issues - some charging stations were curtailed recently thanks to a fall in electricity production caused by the mega drought affecting parts of China.

 

Usually, more EV owners means rising demand for electricity in general and China faces an uphill battle in supplying all of these new vehicles at the same time as the country is trying to cut coal consumption at its power plants.

 

This is one reason why some analysts, including Mr Hykawy, argue that hybrid electric vehicles are a better option than cars that run on batteries alone, since they will be less reliant on the grid.

 

They also require less lithium, given their smaller batteries, which could be important given potential shortages of lithium expected in the coming years.

 

As for how the Chinese EV market could influence the rest of the world, the jury is still out. But it is already starting, with Chinese firms marketing EVs in Latin America, Africa and elsewhere. High-end manufacturer Nio is also bringing its battery-swapping stations to Norway and has just opened its second such station in the country.

 

A Nio EC6 electric sport utility vehicle (SUV) is seen at a NIO battery swap station on September 18, 2021 in Xi an, Shaanxi Province of China.

 

 

Mr Pacheco argues that more major car brands would have to adopt battery swapping for the technology to become widespread in Europe. But he highlights the success of ultra low-cost EVs in China - such as the vehicles offered by local brands Wuling and Chery.

 

"In China, they already have affordable EVs," he says. "In Europe, we're not there yet."

 

In emerging markets, these are exactly the kind of vehicles that could catch on. Time to conquer the world? Maybe. But there's another school of thought that says, well, the world can wait.

 

"As long as the Chinese market is booming, they may as well just sell locally," says Ms Nicolls. "I mean, why wouldn't you?"

 

Analysts tend to agree that it will be very interesting to see what happens when the subsidies run out. That could push Chinese EV makers towards other markets - and maybe we'll all fall in love with EVs thanks, indirectly, to the policies of Chinese authorities. We'll have to wait and see.-BBC

 

 

 

Ben Bernanke, former US Federal Reserve chief, wins Nobel Prize

Ben Bernanke, who led the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis, is one of three recipients of this year's Nobel prize in economics.

 

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said it was recognising the trio for research that had changed our understanding of financial crises.

 

The work focused on the importance of avoiding runs on banks.

 

The insights have "improved our ability to avoid both serious crises and expensive bailouts", the academy said.

 

Mr Bernanke's research showed how bank runs had prolonged the Great Depression in the 1930s. He later applied some of those lessons during his time at the US Federal Reserve, which he led from 2006-2014.

 

When the financial crisis hit, he pushed the Federal Reserve to intervene aggressively, slashing interest rates and helping to organise bailouts of some of America's biggest banks - moves that were politically controversial.

 

The tools he deployed were also used by the Fed and other central banks in 2020 to stabilise the economy when the Covid pandemic hit and many countries went into lockdown.

 

"The laureates have provided a foundation for our modern understanding of why banks are needed, why they are vulnerable and what to do about it," said Stockholm University economist John Hassler, a member of the prize committee. "We can also note that even though the financial crisis had large consequences, neither that, nor the Covid pandemic, led to depressions like in the '30s."

 

When Mr Bernanke published his work in 1983, bank failures were viewed as a consequence of economic crisis, rather than the cause. His work turned that wisdom on its head.

 

Mr Bernanke, a long-time professor who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said his work looks "primitive" today, but was unusual at the time for arguing that the financial system had a big impact on the rest of the economy.

 

"I'm incredibly honoured to be a co-winner," he said. He said the call was unexpected - noting that he learned the news from his daughter, after the committee failed to reach him because his mobile phone was off.

 

Mr Bernanke shared the prize with economists Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig, who are professors at the University of Chicago and Washington University in St Louis, Missouri respectively.

 

Their work showed the vital role banks play in the economy and how regulation, such as deposit insurance, can make banks less vulnerable to collapse, insights that the committee said "form the foundation of modern banking regulation".

 

Understanding financial crises remains a "first-order priority", Prof Hassler said in awarding the prize, which comes at a time of heightened global economic uncertainty.

 

Prof Diamond said the world is much better prepared for financial crises than it was in 2008. But he said unexpected events, like the surge in borrowing costs that hit the UK last month after the government unveiled plans for tax cuts, still pose risks, especially if people lose faith in the credibility of the system.

 

This undated hand out image released by The University of Chicago Booth School of Business on October 10, 2022 shows Professor Douglas W. Diamond posing for a photo in Chicago.

 

 

"The best advice is to be prepared for making sure that your part of the banking sector is both perceived to be healthy and to stay healthy and respond in a measured and transparent way to changes in monetary policy," he said, speaking by phone at the announcement.

 

Mr Bernanke, speaking at a press conference in Washington after the award was announced, said the big risks to the current economy - such as the energy crisis in Europe - do not appear to be rooted in the financial system. But he warned that if lenders are affected, they can make the situation worse.

 

"I don't think we know very much [about] how changes in interest rates affect long-run financial stability," he added.

 

The award comes with 10 million Swedish crown ($885,000) in prize money, which will be split three ways.

 

Although not one of the original Nobel Prizes, the economics award is administered by the Nobel Foundation and is the last to be announced each year.

 

The other Nobel prizes were established by Alfred Nobel's will in 1895, while the economics prize, officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank (Sweden's central bank) Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was created in 1968.

 

Previous winners, the majority of whom have been from the US, include Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman. It is unusual for the prize to go to a prominent policymaker.

 

Mr Bernanke, who earned his undergraduate degree at Harvard and doctorate from MIT, previously worked as a professor of economics at Princeton and other universities. He also served as an advisor to former president George W Bush.

 

The announcement brought congratulations from many economists, including Olivier Blanchard, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, who said Mr Bernanke had done more for global growth than any other living economist.

 

"Without his actions when the financial crisis came, GDP would have collapsed much more than it did," he wrote on Twitter. "So, on purely financial grounds, he deserves the prize (and on other grounds as well)."

 

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (L) and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke (2nd L) prepare to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill September 24, 2008 in Washington, DC. President George W. Bush will address the nation tonight to sell his administration's proposed $700 billion bailout that he hopes will stabilize the faltering U.S. financial system.

 

 

But the prize also revived criticism of Mr Bernanke's actions, with some noting that he pioneered large bank purchases of government debt and other assets, which some say have helped fuel the price rises plaguing the economy today.

 

"Ben Bernanke wins the economic Nobel Prize at the very moment when the global financial system is (once again) on the edge due to the misguided monetary policies he and other central bankers spearheaded. This is a bankruptcy moment for central banking and the economics Nobel," Indian billionaire Sridhar Vudu, the chief executive of the Zoho technology firm, wrote on Twitter.-BBC

 

 

 

Post Office and Fujitsu to face inquiry over Horizon scandal

The public inquiry into the IT failings that led to the wrongful prosecution of hundreds of Post Office branch managers starts hearing evidence from other key witnesses this week.

 

This new stage of the inquiry aims to uncover what was behind one of the most widespread miscarriages of justice in UK legal history.

 

No-one at the Post Office or Fujitsu has yet been held accountable.

 

The chair of the inquiry said he was "determined to expose the truth".

 

More than 700 Post Office managers were given criminal convictions after a new computer software system, built by the Japanese firm Fujitsu, wrongly showed money was going missing from individual branches between 2000 and 2014.

 

Thousands of other sub-postmasters lost their businesses, as they were forced to pay back money which was alleged to be missing from their branches.

 

 

The first phase of the public inquiry earlier this year heard testimony from sub-postmasters who were wrongly bankrupted and imprisoned. They described being treated as criminals by their employers and their communities. Dozens have had their convictions overturned, and many more are in line for compensation.

 

This next phase of the inquiry will hear from the Post Office, government officials and the firm Fujitsu. It will examine who knew about the faults in the Horizon software programme, and what they did, or did not do, with that information.

 

The chair of the inquiry, Sir Wyn Williams, said the evidence he heard through the spring and summer had made a deep impression on him.

 

In a recorded statement he said he was "determined to expose the truth about these matters".

 

The process is expected to take several months, with witnesses called who were involved in the design, roll-out, operation and management of the new system.

 

Earlier this year Jez Thompson, who worked on a team training sub-postmasters to use the new software system, told the BBC that problems were flagged up as Horizon was rolled out.

 

He said glitches and bugs frequently made the software fail to compute the sums, and he regularly passed that information up to his supervisors, who he is sure would have passed it on.

 

"I reported [these issues] to my line manager and he then reported that to a weekly meeting with Fujitsu Training Services, where both Fujitsu and the Post Office would have been present and glitches would've been discussed," he said.

 

But a member of Fujitsu's UK board, speaking for the first time exclusively to the BBC, said that the board wasn't aware of any significant technical problems when Horizon was being rolled out.

 

Andy MacNaughton originally worked for ICL, a British firm, that had the government contract to roll out new computers and accounting software in every single branch of the Post Office. After ICL was taken over by Fujitsu in 2000, it was Mr MacNaughton's job to manage the contract.

 

The project was already running late, and he was under pressure, because the firm would only be paid once a "working system" was delivered, he said.

 

He was unaware of any issues, and the system could not have been made live without the Post Office thoroughly testing and approving it, he added.

 

"We couldn't put a system in and make it live without the customer first accepting, signing off."

 

"You can't force somebody to take something that they don't want or don't believe works. We just can't do it."

 

Mr MacNaughton said he wasn't aware the Post Office were prosecuting staff or that Fujitsu data was used when sub-postmasters were prosecuted.

 

The Metropolitan Police is currently investigating two people over potential perjury - failing to tell the truth under oath - during those trials.

 

Fujitsu said it has "been co-operating with the current Post Office Horizon IT statutory inquiry since it began and continues to be focused on helping assist its chair and his team".

 

It says it is committed to providing "the fullest and most transparent information so that key lessons are learned".

 

No-one from Fujitsu has apologised, and the company has not offered any financial contribution to towards the compensation bill for the victims of the wrongful prosecutions.

 

Mr MacNaughton said this might be for legal reasons. "As soon as you start doing that, there is an admission of guilt and liability," he said.

 

And he doesn't feel there is anything to apologise for since he believes the Post Office failed to inform Fujitsu of the problems with Horizon. More than a dozen Fujitsu staff are, however, set to face questions at the inquiry in the coming weeks.

 

The Post Office used evidence from Fujitsu data, and called on Fujitsu staff as witnesses, when it pursued criminal prosecutions against more than 700 of its own staff. They were accused of theft and false accounting, with many others having their contracts terminated.

 

'The Post Office interrogated me for hours'

Two more sub-postmasters exonerated after IT scandal

The Post Office has said it is "sincerely sorry" for the impact of the scandal on the wrongly accused postmasters, and that it believes the inquiry will ensure "lessons are learned".

 

"Post Office is openly and transparently assisting the Inquiry in its important work to determine what went wrong in the past and to provide, as much as possible, closure for those affected," it said in a statement.

 

Within the past few days the Post Office has agreed the first two full compensation deals for sub-postmasters whose convictions have been overturned.

 

In the last year, the government has removed Fujitsu from its list of preferred suppliers, but the firm is still able to win government contracts through the normal procurement process.

 

A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) echoed Sir Wyn's determination to "uncover the truth of how the Horizon scandal came about".

 

The statutory inquiry should "ensure something like this can never happen again" they added.

 

"On top of this, we are funding compensation for the postmasters whose lives have been so badly affected by this scandal," they said.-BBC

 

 

 

Big and painful cuts needed to fix budget, says IFS

The chancellor will need to make "big and painful" spending cuts to put the country's finances on a sustainable path, the Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank has warned.

 

With a weaker economy and promised tax cuts, there will be a large shortfall in revenue, the IFS predicts.

 

It calculates the government would have to spend £60bn a year less by 2026-27.

 

However, the Treasury said its tax cuts and reforms would deliver "sustainable funding for public services".

 

In a new report, the IFS outlines the scale of the cuts necessary to make the sums add up over the next five years, using an illustrative example.

 

It suggests Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng could:

 

Mr Kwarteng and Prime Minister Liz Truss have argued focusing on measures to promote growth will help plug the shortfall between income and outgoings.

 

The chancellor has promised to set out further details of his economic strategy on 31 October, three weeks earlier than originally planned, alongside a full forecast from the official Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

 

That change of timetable came after the markets baulked at the strategy announced in last month's mini-budget.

 

It outlined large tax cuts and a huge package of support with energy costs without details of how they would be paid for, and without the usual assessment of their impact from the OBR.

 

The IFS, a politically independent economics-focused think tank, has published its own assessment of the chancellor's strategy, in what it names a Green Budget, after the consultation green papers issued in Parliament.

 

It calculates the chancellor would have to cut spending on benefits, public services, and investment sharply if he wants to stick to his commitment to balance the budget in the medium term, rather than see debt continuing to rise.

 

IFS director Paul Johnson said: "The chancellor says he wants to get the public finances on a sustainable basis. It looks to us like that's going to mean tens of billions of pounds of spending cuts in order to achieve that.

 

"It's hard to see what other way out the chancellor has."

 

Mr Johnson said the country was not going into a period "with much fat to trim".

 

"One of the problems the government faces is we have had a decade and more of really tight spending settlements, we're still spending less on a lot of public services than we were just over a decade ago," he told BBC News.

 

Cutting public sector pay, benefits, education, justice and prisons would all be very difficult against that backdrop, he said.

 

'Huge uncertainty'

The government's current commitment is to have debt falling relative to the size of the economy after three years, though that rule predates the start of Liz Truss's government.

 

The IFS has done its calculations based on allowing five years before debt must start to fall.

 

It said it accepted there was "huge uncertainty" over the impact of budgetary policies, and welcomed the government's focus on faster growth, which it said "would definitely help".

 

The chancellor has said he is targeting growth of 2.5% a year, which would boost tax revenues and reduce the need for spending cuts.

 

However, an independent assessment from the OBR remained vital, the IFS said, to make sure that "politically motivated wishful thinking is not incorporated into economic and fiscal forecasts".

 

Forecasts from the bank Citi, which collaborated on the IFS Green Budget, suggest the economy will shrink in the next two years, as rising interest rates and rising prices slow the economy down.

 

Citi estimates growth will average about 0.8% over the next five years.

 

Paul Johnson said he would be "very surprised" if he OBR didn't also suggest that large spending cuts or tax rises would be necessary balance the books.

 

A Treasury spokesperson said: "Through tax cuts and ambitious supply-side reforms, our Growth Plan will drive sustainable long-term growth, which will lead to higher wages, greater opportunities and sustainable funding for public services."

 

"The government is committed to fiscal responsibility and getting debt falling as a share of GDP in the medium term," they added.-BBC

 

 

 

Kwasi Kwarteng: Investors wary as economic plan brought forward

The chancellor's decision to bring forward the date of his plan to balance the government's finances failed to reassure markets on Monday.

 

Government borrowing costs rose sharply after Kwasi Kwarteng said he would fast-track his plan to 31 October.

 

The plan will set out how he will fund tax cuts and reduce debt after his mini-budget sparked market turmoil.

 

An independent forecast of the UK economy's prospects will be published at the same time.

 

In the wake of the September mini-budget, the pound slumped to a record low, government borrowing costs surged and the Bank of England was forced to step in and take emergency action after the dramatic market movements put some pension funds at risk of collapse.

 

The volatility eased but on Monday the yields - or effective interest rates - on UK government bonds were almost at the levels seen at the height of the market turmoil.

 

 

Further efforts by the Bank of England to calm markets, along with the appointment of an experienced civil servant as Permanent Secretary to the Treasury also seemed to fall short.

 

Former Treasury chief Lord Macpherson warned the government that there could be an even tougher response from the financial markets in the coming weeks if the chancellor could not show his sums added up.

 

"Unless the government can restore economic credibility, the market response in the weeks ahead could be a whole lot worse than we've seen so far," he told the House of Lords.

 

'Critical to millions'

Mr Kwarteng had initially said he would wait for 23 November to give details of his economic plan but faced mounting pressure from his MPs to change course.

 

The new date means Mr Kwarteng's fiscal statement will be published before the Bank of England announces its latest decision on interest rates on 3 November.

 

The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is widely expected to raise interest rates for the eighth time since last December with many economists forecasting a sharper rise than previous increases.

 

But Mel Stride, chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, tweeted that he hoped Mr Kwarteng's decision to release the report earlier would result in a smaller rate rise.

 

Truss reaches out to MPs after Tory splits exposed

He tweeted this would be "critical to millions of mortgage holders",

 

Noting that that the plan will be published on Hallowe'en, Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner tweeted: "Trick or cheat? The Tory horror show rattles on."

 

The OBR, the independent budget watchdog, will now publish a report alongside Mr Kwarteng's statement at the end of October. Its forecasts will give an indication of the health of the nation's finances.

 

The chancellor bringing forward his explanation of how he intends to get down government debt and the official watchdog's assessment of his plans to Hallowe'en is aimed at quelling the market turmoil which has driven up borrowing costs for households and government.

 

Providing reassurance on that score will likely mean confirming unpalatable news for others. For most economists reckon that, even if the government can boost growth, it will realistically need to find savings of perhaps £40bn or more, if it is to bring down debt in a few years.

 

But by anyone's measure that's not small change, it's an amount greater than the defence budget, and won't be raised through efficiency savings. Many public services are already hampered by pandemic disruption and rising inflation. The Institute for Fiscal Studies reckons the latter means departments have to find £18bn from existing budgets just to provide planned services.

 

On top of that balancing act, they'll be bracing for a new wave of austerity.

 

Borrowers have faced paying the price for the markets' lack of faith in the government's plans - millions more may feel the cost of regaining it.

 

There was some confusion after the chancellor denied there had been any changes to the date of the fiscal statement.

 

However, Treasury sources then clarified that the chancellor would, indeed, bring it forward and that it had simply been waiting to officially announce the change of date in Parliament.

 

Since then the government has been forced into a series of embarrassing climbdowns under growing pressure from its own MPs.

 

Last week, Mr Kwarteng scrapped a decision to cut the top rate of income tax.

 

And on Monday, James Bowler was announced as the new Permanent Secretary to the Treasury.

 

Ms Truss fired Sir Tom Scholar, the civil servant who previously held the job and planned to bring in a high profile outsider - a move some feared would further spook the markets.

 

Ms Truss still faces a potential rebellion from her MPs after declining to say whether she would increase benefits in line with inflation next April.

 

Her approval ratings have plummeted since the mini-budget. The prime minister says her tax cuts will boost the UK economy after years of lacklustre growth.

 

But there are fears the government will have to borrow huge sums to fill the spending gap. The cost of government borrowing consequently jumped, as investors demanded higher rates of interest on UK government bonds.

 

This has fed through to the mortgage market where hundreds of products were pulled due to concerns about how to price these long-term loans.

 

Last week, interest rates on typical two and five-year fixed rate mortgages topped 6% for the first time in over a decade.

 

'Clearly nervous'

On Monday, the Bank of England announced measures to ensure an "orderly end" to an emergency bond buying scheme it was forced to launch after Mr Kwarteng pledged additional tax cuts on top of those outlined in the mini-budget.

 

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said that the government and the Bank had launched "a two pronged attempt to calm markets" as the pound remained weak and government borrowing costs were rising again.

 

"Policymakers and politicians are clearly nervous about seeing a repeat of the mini-financial crisis unleashed following the presentation of the Truss administration's slash and spend plans," she said.

 

"All eyes will be on the independent assessment of his spending plans, and the risk is that if the numbers don't add up, the markets could take fright again."-BBC

 

 

 

 

Nigeria Can Become World Leader in Digital Economy - Osinbajo

Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, has declared that Nigeria has the requisite talents, creativity and acumen to become a world leader in the digital economy.

 

Osinbajo stated this yesterday at this year's Nigeria Digital Economy Summit, NDES, with the theme, "Web 3.0, Blockchain and DeFi: Impact on Africa's Digital Economy".

 

According to him, with the right approach and policy, as well as the country's human capital and potential, "we can actually become world leaders in digital technology in all its various ramifications".

 

In a statement made available to Vanguard, the vice president highlighted the future of technology, digital economy and what it means globally, especially for Nigeria.

 

 

His words: "A whole new world is unfolding before our very eyes, unlike Web 1 and 2 where we were relatively disadvantaged. In 1989 we didn't have mobile phones so we could not take advantage of the reach and depth that mobile telecoms gave digital innovation and financial inclusion. We are now better positioned to be significant players in Web 3.

 

"We have already shown that we have the talent, creativity and acumen to build and grow major tech companies. At the last count, we have 6 unicorns and many more on the way. But we must spend time on the development of digital skills."

 

Osinbajo however, called for more synergy between the public and private sectors in driving the digital economy revolution in the country, adding that both sectors must find ways to ensure that "policy is way ahead for development".

 

"We must think through and develop appropriate policies and regulations that promote, rather than inhibit, innovation and commerce. We can be world leaders in the Web 3 revolution. The only limit is our vision," he said.

 

The vice president noted that the technology platform deployed in the implementation of the microcredit schemes such as TraderMoni and MarketMoni was built by Eyowo, a local Nigerian tech company.

 

Speaking on digitization in the public sector, Osinbajo said: "Web 3 will also mean that the digitization of government's services will come with more options, government agencies can then be smarter, faster and more efficient in delivering their services."

 

He also noted the category of licences created and made available to some FinTech companies by the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, in the past few years as a significant example of how government policy can drive innovation and economic growth.

 

Vanguard.

 

 

 

Nigeria Ranks 86th in the World By Digital Quality of Life - Study

Nigeria has been ranked 86th in this year's Digital Quality of Life Index with respect to digital well-being, a study by cybersecurity company, Surfshark, has shown.

 

The fourth edition of the annual report covered 117 countries, or 92% of the global population. It covered five fundamental pillars of digital life - internet affordability and quality, e-infrastructure, e-security, and e-government.

 

Out of the five pillars, Nigeria's had its worst score on internet affordability (ranking 114th globally), while its best was on e-security (66th). The country's e-infrastructure services come 86th, while e-government and internet quality rank 95th and 99th, respectively.

 

 

In the face of waging inflation, fixed broadband internet has become less affordable worldwide for the second year in a row, prying the global digital divide even further.

 

This year, Nigeria comes at the lower end of the index, ranking 86th and only making it into the top 90 in the final index, but ranked 7th in Africa.

 

The country has dropped by four positions since last year's edition, falling from 82nd to 86th. Out of all index pillars, Nigeria's weakest spot is internet affordability, which needs to improve by 13970% to match the best-ranking country's result (Israel).

 

To afford mobile internet, Nigerians have to work 183 times more (15 min/month) than Israeli citizens, for whom the most affordable 1GB package costs only 5 s of work monthly, according to the study. It said that fixed broadband costs Nigerian citizens around 36 hours 13 minutes of their precious working time each month.

 

This is as data from the website of the Nigerian Communications Commission showed that broadband penetration in the country rose to 45.65 percent (85,232,291) in August 2022, from 40.01 percent (76,365,158).

 

On internet quality, which the study measured by speed, stability, and growth, Nigeria ranked 99th in the world and is 26% worse than the global average.

 

>From its position last year, mobile internet speed in Nigeria has improved by 10.8% (2.5 Mbps), and fixed broadband speed has grown by 15.9% (2.6 Mbps), the study said.

 

However, compared to South Africa, Nigeria's mobile internet is 2 times slower, while broadband is 3 times slower. But compared to Kenya, Nigeria's mobile internet is 5% faster, while broadband is about the same speed.

 

The study noted however that since last year, mobile internet speed in Nigeria has improved by 10.8% (2.5 Mbps), and fixed broadband speed has grown by 15.9% (2.6 Mbps). Conversely, in comparison, Singapore's residents enjoyed mobile speeds up to 104 Mbps/s and fixed to as much as 261 Mbps/s - that's the fastest internet in the world this year, the report of the study said.

 

Global overview

 

This year, 7 out of the 10 highest-scoring countries are in Europe, which has been the case for the past three years, according to the report. This year, Israel ranked 1st in DQL, displacing Denmark to second place after its two-year lead. Germany ranks 3rd, and France and Sweden round up the top five of the 117 evaluated nations. Congo DR, Yemen, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Cameroon are the bottom five countries.

 

- Daily Trust.

 

 

 

Nigeria Fighting Inflation With Wrong Weapon

In its latest move to fight the rising specter of inflationary pressure in the country, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on Tuesday, September 27, raised the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by one percentage point to 15 per cent. It also raised the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) from the banks to 32.50 per cent.

 

That was the third time the CBN would raise interest rates this year. It had in May, raised the rate from 11.5 to 13 per cent, which it followed up with another raise in July, to 14 per cent.

 

In all of these and similar moves in the recent past, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the CBN, which has the sole constitutional role to manage interest rates in the country, has been guided in its decisions by the conviction that inflation in Nigeria is caused by the same factors raising prices in other countries. Therefore, when other countries raise their interest rates, our monetary authorities follow suit. Thus, it is evident that these interest rate decisions have been bland responses to decisions taken by central banks in other countries, including those in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK).

 

 

To us at Daily Trust, what the CBN is doing is nothing but taking a lazy way out of a problem. The bank is still stuck with the one-cap-fits-all approach to the inflation fight: raise the interest rate, raise banks' CRR, etc., irrespective of the actual causes of the problem. The appex bank is not taking into consideration the fact that the causes of the problem in Nigeria are peculiar and require peculiar solutions.

 

For context, the current wave of inflationary pressures being experienced in advanced countries is partly a consequence of the loose monetary activities that went on there in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is a known fact that Europe, America and others rendered support to their citizens to enable them to survive the challenges of the pandemic, especially the lockdown and containment measures that restricted movement. They gave money directly to the people because their citizens were out of jobs as a result of the pandemic disruptions. People who were out of work were given financial support; companies that shut down were supported in one form or the other.

 

 

The various support progammes led to excessive growth in the money supply in the economies, hence the current pressures on prices.

 

Our case is different. While it is true that Nigeria is part of the global community that is currently witnessing a general price increase, the case here is not the same as the others. The above narrative suggests that Nigeria's inflationary pressure is not purely a monetary affair; and this being the case, there is a limit to how far measures that purely target monetary variables such as increases in banks' CRRs can go.

 

 

Under the new CRR of 32.5 per cent, the CBN expects to suck up as much as N6.96trn from the banks' N21.43trn deposit with it. This N6.96trn is money that the banks must keep with the CBN as reserve, a type of sterilisation, and from which they cannot create credit. This, however, raises the question: If food is not available in the country, how does raising or lowering such variables procure food for the masses at lower prices?

 

The entire world is also facing the excruciating impacts of the spikes in energy and transportation costs arising from the Russia-Ukraine war. In effect, a great portion of the inflation we have in Nigeria is imported. Our policymakers must come to terms with the reality that this is a supply-side issue, not a demand-side challenge, which their penchant for interest rate hikes clearly implies.

 

Therefore, what is needed now is a policy mix that will address all the causal factors, including the food dimension of the price pressure. Whichever way you look at it, food inflation is the major problem in Nigeria. Recent inflation figures support this. Headline inflation in June, this year was 18.60 per cent, while food inflation rose to 20.60 per cent. In July, inflation was 19.64 per cent, with food inflation standing at 22.02 per cent. The trend was the same in August.

 

It stands to reason then that our fight against inflation must address the issue of food. Nigeria currently faces a food security threat. The factors responsible for this are not far-fetched given the high level of insecurity that pervades virtually the entire nation, including the floods. Any solution that will work effectively against the inflationary pressure must of necessity involve measures that make food available in the market so that ordinary people can have access to it. The government should at this stage open the country's strategic reserves and flood the markets with grains to force down the prices. The government can also import food to support the people.

 

In the coming days and weeks, Daily Trust expects the CBN and its MPC to take a second look at their latest dose of anti-inflation measures. The reactions of the people and the responses of the relevant variables, including the various measurements of inflation, should be their best guide. The CBN must think out of the box. There is no easy cut and paste way out of this.

 

-Daily Trust.

 

 

 

Tanzania, Kenya Agree to Fast-Track Construction of Gas Pipeline Project

Dar es Salaam — The presidents of Tanzania and Kenya have agreed to fast-track construction of a natural gas pipeline designed to increased trade and lower energy costs for both countries.

 

The decision was reached Monday in bilateral talks in Dar es Salaam led by Tanzanian President Samia Hassan and Kenyan President William Ruto, during a two-day visit.

 

Last year, Hassan and Kenya's then-president Uhuru Kenyatta signed an agreement in Nairobi to start working on the gas pipeline project, but actual construction has yet to commence.

 

The two countries have generally maintained positive ties in politics and trade, but have occasional trade spats.

 

Tanzania imposed a 25% import duty on Kenyan confections in 2020, saying the country used zero-rated industrial sugar imports to produce them. In another dispute, Kenya banned Tanzanian tour vans from accessing the Maasai Mara National Reserve, arguing that Tanzania had banned Kenyan operators from accessing the Serengeti National Park.

 

These differences were resolved when Tanzania's Hassan visited Nairobi last year to meet with Kenyatta.

 

There were 68 trade barriers identified between Tanzania and Kenya at the time, Hassan said, and 54 of those non-tariff barriers were resolved. Ministers in the trade and investment sector have been tasked with working to resolve the remaining 14 barriers, Hassan said.

 

The projected natural gas pipeline would run for about 600 kilometers between Dar es Salaam and Mombasa. There is no projected completion date.

 

-VOA.

 

 

Ghana: Cocoa Farmers Deserve to Enjoy Fruits of Their Labour

Cocoa farmers in the country must be the happiest group of people in the country today for two main reasons.

 

Last week, the governments made two major announcements that must gladden the hearts of many of the farmers whose toils have been the mainstay of the country's economy.

 

The first announcement was that the government was rolling out the much-awaited Cocoa Farmers Pension Scheme this month.

 

The announcement made by the Board Chairman of COCOBOD, Mr Peter Mac Manu, said the trustees and implementers of the scheme would be moving from district to district to register cocoa farmers onto the scheme to enable them to enjoy the full benefit of their pensions.

 

Speaking at this year's Cocoa Day grand durbar which also coincided with the COCOBOD's 75th anniversary at Suhum in the Eastern Region, he said that, though previous years had been challenging globally for the cocoa sector, Ghana COCOBOD had not relented on its effort to push for policies that enhanced the welfare of cocoa farmers, assuring it would continue to be innovative and be pragmatic in the midst of the challenges facing them.

 

 

He pointed out further that it had been three years since the implementation of the living income inferential, a pricing mechanism spearheaded by Ghana and Ivory Coast to secure a $400 premium on every tonne of cocoa sold to be paid directly to the cocoa farmers.

 

He noted, however, that unfavorable market prices as well as deliberate attempts by buyers, among others, had undermined the initiative which sought to guarantee a decent income for farmers.

 

In fulfilment of that goal, the government on Wednesday, pegged the producer price for cocoa at GH¢800 per bag of 64kg.

 

The new price which took effect from Friday, October 7, 2022, for the 2022-2023 crop season, represents a 21 per cent increase from GH¢10,560 per tonne to GH¢12,800 per tonne.

 

The Minister for Food and Agriculture, Dr Owusu Afriyie Akoto made the announcement at a press briefing in Accra on Wednesday, October 5, 2022.

 

"The 21 per cent rise in the producer price of cocoa is a testament to the government's resolve to ensure farmers earn a decent income and make cocoa farming lucrative. The government will continue to implement initiatives to build a robust, resilient and sustainable cocoa industry where cocoa farmers and their communities will thrive", the minister was quoted as saying.

 

The Ghanaian Times applauds the government and the sector Minister for implementing policies that directly go to benefit cocoa famers in the country. We are all well aware of the challenges farmers, especially cocoa farmers are facing especially from the threats by the 'galamsey' menace.

 

We cannot afford to lose our cocoa farms to illegal mining knowing too well the socio-economic consequencies for our country.

 

We have seen the devastation taking place and in some cases on cocoa plantations and want to appeal to all those involved to halt the illegal mining in those area,

 

We are sure that these two announcements would be a morale booster for our farmers. We need our cocoa farms and we need farmers to continue to produce the cocoa for the benefit of all Ghanaians. While we applaud the government for seeking their welfare we also call for the protection of the farms from destruction. That is the only way they can truly benefit from the policies and enjoy the fruits of their labour.

 

-Ghanaian Times.

 

 

Mozambique: Government Promised IMF Big Wage and Staff Cuts

The government promised the IMF big wage and staff cuts in order to gain IMF approval in May of a $456 mn Extended Credit Facility. The total civil service wage bill is to be cut by 17% by 2026, a cut of $425 mn per year from a peak in 2023. Staff cuts will be achieved "by replacing only one in three civil servants leaving the civil service, except in education, health, justice and agriculture."

 

The IMF has always been obsessed with cutting the wage bill, but has never succeeded. And the new salary table will add $300 mn to the wage bill by 2023, mainly to the better paid. But large cuts must come in the three years after that.

 

 

Except for that, the IMF has largely accepted promises made before, such as a reduction in credit to state companies and more transparency.

 

Government promises a reform of the Public Probity Law including improving the definition of conflicts of interest, requiring new public servants to submit declarations of financial interests when they are hired, and establishing public procedures for reporting conflicts of interest. Interestingly there are no requirements for transparency here, so the IMF will allow declarations of assets and interests to remain secret.

 

Similarly repeated is a promises to strengthen transparency in the management of Mozambique's natural resources as part of reporting to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Government promises to "reduce the scope for corruption and conflicts of interest in the natural resources sector."

 

As before there is a promise to improve tax collection and to pay its bills on time. Government has promised to reduce the number of VAT exemptions. It announced that VAT would be cut from 17% to 16%, but that private health, private education, and rent for commercial and industrial premises would be subject to VAT. (Carta de Moçambique 23 Sep)

 

Many details of what is known as an "article IV consultation" remain secret. But on 14 September the Ministry of Economy and Finance released the key Political and Economic Memorandum - a government document with the commitments to the IMF. The Memorandum is on: https://www.mef.gov.mz/index.php/publicacoes/politicas/memorandos-de- entendimento-1/fmi/1705-memorando-de-politicas-economicas-gdm-fmi-202 2-2024 We used those promises to estimate the wage and staff cuts.

 

(How we estimated wage cuts: Commitments in the memorandum are based on percentage of GDP rather than monetary amounts. World Bank says 2021 GDP was $16.1 bn. IMF predicts 3.8% per year GDP growth. The cost of the new salary scale in reported in Meticias. We assume a constant exchange rate of $1 = MT 64. Taking that together we estimate for 2021 a wage bill of $2.2 bn at 13.8% of GDP. Government promises no wage rise this year and the extra cost of the new salary scale is given in the Memorandum as $300 mn per year from 2023. So we estimate the 2023 wage bill at $2.5 bn, 14.5% of GDP. The memorandum requires wages in 2026 to be 10.8% of GDP, which we estimate to be $2.1 bn, down $430 mn (17%) from 2023. Jh)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2022

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

National Unity Day

 

December 22

 


 

Christmas Day

 

December 25

 


 

Boxing Day

 

December 26

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


CBZH

Meikles

Fidelity

 


TSL

FMHL

Turnall

 


GBH

ZBFH

GetBucks

 


Zeco

Lafarge

Zimre

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


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