Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 29 September 2022

Fri Sep 30 08:41:40 CAT 2022

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 29 September 2022

ZSE commentary

ZSE extends gains.

The ZSE extended gains in the mid-week session as the primary All Share
Index surged 8.67% to 15023.86pts while, the Top Ten Index advanced 11.52%
to 9303.36pts. The Mid Cap Index rose 2.37% to 29499.17pts as the
ZSE-Agriculture Index ticked up 1.19% to 73.46pts. Logistics company
Unifreight headlined the gainers' list on a 14.97% rise to $43.0000, trailed
by Innscor which went up 14.90% to $309.3762. Ecocash Holdings jumped 14.83%
to $60.1154 while, telecoms giant Econet advanced 14.67% to $118.4534.
Beverages group Delta capped the top five winners of the session after
adding 14.55% to $256.2002. Leading the losers of the day was bankers NMBZ
that slumped 10.00% to $18.0009. Milk processor Dairibord retreated 9.07% to
$22.1880 while, clothing retailers Edgars gave up 4.76% to trade at $7.0000.
Mashonaland Holdings lost 3.37% to end pegged at $6.6000, trailed by Meikles
Limited which capped the top five losers' list of the day on a 2.98% decline
to end the session at $114.9565.

The market closed with a positive breadth of twelve after nineteen counters
gained ground against seven losers. Activity aggregates advanced in the
session as value traded grew by 341.34% to $445.17m while, volumes edged up
96.10% to 7.16m shares. Proplastics, NMB and Econet dominated the volume
traded after contributing 41.91%, 15.75% and 12.95% accordingly. Delta,
Econet, Proplastics and Simbisa contributed a combined 75.13% to the total
outturn. The Datvest and Old Mutual ETF were the only ETF'S to register
price movements today as the duo gained 6.06% and 0.32% to close the day at
respective prices of $1.6047 and $5.2099. On the VFEX, Bindura slipped 0.65%
to end pegged at $0.0305. Elsewhere, VFEX will welcome its fifth listing
Simbisa, which will delist from the ZSE. efesecurities

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Nigeria

Demand pressure pushes naira to new low of N740 per dollar

Naira on Thursday fell to a record new low of N740 per dollar at the
parallel market due to increased demand for foreign exchange (FX).

After trading on Thursday the local currency lost N15 (2.03 percent) to the
dollar which traded at N725/$ on Tuesday.

With the latest rate, Naira has depreciated by N175 (23.65 percent) when
compared with N565/$ at the beginning of the year.

At the Investors and Exporters window (I&E) forex window, Naira appreciated
marginally by 0.02 percent as the dollar was quoted at N436.25 on Thursday
as against the last close of N436.33 on Wednesday.

Most currency dealers who participated at the foreign exchange auction on
Thursday maintained bids between N420.50 (low) and N438.45 (high) per
dollar.

At the money market segment, the Overnight (O/N) rate increased by 2.92
percent to close at 10.17 percent on Thursday as against the last close of
7.25 percent on the previous day.

The Open Repo (OPR) rate increased by 2.67 percentage points to close at
9.67 percent on Thursday as against the last close of 7.00 percent on
Wednesday.

Read also: Nigeria needs FX, subsidy reforms to attract foreign investment -
Razia Khan

Money market rates increased by an average of 280 bps following the FX
retail auction by the CBN, a report by FSDH research stated.

The Nigerian treasury bills (NT-Bills) secondary market closed on a positive
note on Thursday with the average yield across the curve decreasing by 35
bps to 7.45 percent from 7.80 percent on the previous day.

Average yield across the medium-term maturities declined by 91 bps. However,
average yields across short-term and long-term maturities closed flat at
6.49 percent and 6.08 percent, respectively. NTB 9-Mar-23 (-274 bps)
maturity bill witnessed heavy buying interest.

In the Open Market Operation (OMO) secondary market, the average yield
across the curve closed flat at 11.11 percent on Thursday. Average yields
across short-term, medium-term, and long-term maturities remained unchanged
at 11.36 percent, 10.96 percent, and 11.15 percent, respectively.

The report noted that FGN bonds secondary market closed on a flat note on
Thursday, as the average bond yield across the curve closed flat at 13.13
percent. Average yield across the long tenor of the curve remained
unchanged. However, average yield across the short tenor of the curve
declined by 1 basis point, while average yield across medium tenor of the
curve increased by 1 basis point. The 14-MAR-2024 maturity bond was the best
performer with a decrease in the yield of 1 basis point, while the
17-MAR-2027 maturity bond was the worst performer with an increase in the
yield of 5 bps.

South Africa

Rand slips against dollarAs investors remain on edge.

South Africa's rand slipped on Thursday, continuing its weakness against the
U.S. dollar as local producer price inflation (PPI) data did little to
assuage investor concern amid market volatility.

At 18:36, the rand traded at 17.9800 against the dollar, 0.81% weaker than
its previous close.

The country's year-on-year headline PPI data for August eased to 16.6%
compared to 18% in July, but inflation in food products, beverages, and
tobacco products edged higher to 11.6%, data from Statistics South Africa
showed.

However, analysts at Nedbank said food inflation in South Africa is close to
peaking as global prices of grains have continued to fall.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of major
rivals, softened and was last down around 0.73% to 112.2.

The rand, which is highly susceptible to global drivers such as U.S.
monetary policy, is highly oversold and is expected to recover some lost
ground by year end, Investec analyst Annabel Bishop said in a research note.

Shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell, mirroring similar moves in
global equities as recession fears gripped investors.

Overall on the stock market, the Top-40 index fell 0.86%, while the broader
all-share index ended 0.85% lower.

The government's benchmark 2030 bond fell, with the yield up 18 basis points
at 10.990%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Sterling climbs as dollar slips in wake of Bank of England intervention

(Reuters) - The pound reversed losses and climbed more than 1% on Thursday
as the dollar slipped and investors analysed the Bank of England's dramatic
intervention in the bond market.

Sterling had dropped in morning trading in London but later rallied to stand
1.3% higher on the day at $1.1026 in the afternoon session. It rose against
most major currencies, with the euro last down 1.01% at 88.48 pence.

The pound crashed to a record low against the dollar of $1.0327 on Monday
after new finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled plans to cut taxes,
particularly for the rich, and raise borrowing.

The so-called mini budget sparked chaos in financial markets, forcing the
Bank of England to start buying bonds again on Wednesday.

However, British Prime Minister Liz Truss refused to back down on Thursday,
saying on BBC radio that her government's plans were the right ones for the
country.

The pound's rise on Thursday took its three-day rally to more than 3%,
although sterling is still down by more than 18% this year.

Analysts struggled to identify an exact catalyst but pointed to the BoE's
intervention, a fall in the dollar, and the rebalancing of portfolios
towards the end of the quarter. Many cautioned that trading was febrile and
the outlook for the pound remained gloomy.

"The BoE's intervention has shown that it is willing to act when being
pressured by the markets. This helps to stabilize the pound," Esther
Reichelt, foreign exchange strategist at Commerzbank, said.

"However, the whole political situation remains highly volatile and
sentiment can change quickly."

Kwarteng's mini budget triggered a huge sell-off in UK government bonds as
investors reacted to the extra borrowing the plans implied. That piled
pressure on pension funds, which are big holders of long-dated gilts, and
caused the BoE to step in.

The BoE said it would buy around 65 billion pounds ($71 billion) of
long-dated government bonds to rectify "dysfunction" in the market.

Adam Cole, head of foreign exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said a
key driver in the currency markets on Thursday was the dollar, which picked
up in Asian trading but later fell back sharply.

The dollar index was last down 0.57% to 112.39. It had earlier risen to a
session high of 113.79.

Analysts said the dollar's pull-back came after the People's Bank of China
told state banks to be prepared to sell the U.S. currency in favour of the
yuan, a step first reported by Reuters.

POUND PESSIMISM

Despite the rebound, most investors remain pessimistic about sterling, given
the strength of the dollar and the storm clouds over the UK economy.

"I don't think (the BoE's intervention) is going to be a long-term boost for
sterling, although it might prevent an extreme downturn," Jonas Goltermann,
senior markets economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said.

Goltermann said further falls in sterling were probable. He said the BoE was
unlikely to hike interest rates as high as the 6% traders expect by spring
next year.

One analyst said they were also watching for signs of more selling of UK
assets by pensions funds.

Pensions funds have been heavily selling gilts in recent days after the
market falls triggered calls for collateral payments on their gilt
derivatives positions, analysts and pensions advisers said.

Cole said RBC Capital Markets had long expected the pound to fall to $1.04,
but would likely cut its price target even further in the coming days.

($1 = 0.9214 pounds)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold Price Outlook - Gold Rally Stalling as Familiar Fears Return

The Bank of England (BoE) intervened in the gilt market yesterday by
announcing a fresh bond-buying program in the long-end of the UK bond
market. The BoE's operation, seen by some as a pivot by the UK central bank,
was in fact urgently needed action to shore up a certain part of the UK
pension market, which if it had been left alone had the ability to spark
further turmoil throughout the financial market. UK bond yields fell
sharply, recovering almost all of their recent losses, prompting global bond
yields to fall and risk-on markets to rise.

As more clarity and understanding of the problem the BoE faced on Wednesday
is made known, bond yields are moving higher again as traders see the BoE's
bond buying as a specific, targeted action rather than a shift in monetary
policy. Global bond yields are starting to move higher, and that is a
familiar problem for gold bulls.

The interest-rate sensitive UST 2-year is currently offered with a yield of
4.21%, around 12 basis points higher than Wednesday and just 14 basis points
from its recent 15-year high.

Traders should be aware that there is a raft of central bank speakers on tap
this week, while Friday's core US PCE reading will be closely watched.
Federal Reserve speakers this week have so far been doubling-down on the
central bank's view that inflation is too high and that rates need to be
hiked faster and higher and left at these elevated levels for longer to
counter runaway price pressures.

For all market-moving data releases and events, see the DailyFX Economic
Calendar.

Gold traded into, and respected, support around $1,617/oz. yesterday, an old
50% Fibonacci retracement level. The precious metal remains below the
200-sma on the weekly chart with any upside capped between $1,667/oz. and
$1,676/oz. A confirmed break below $1,617/oz. would see $1,600/oz. come into
play.

Retail trader data show 78.78% of traders are net-long with the ratio of
traders long to short at 3.71 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 8.79%
lower than yesterday and 16.38% lower from last week, while the number of
traders net-short is 15.07% higher than yesterday and 13.19% higher from
last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders
are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less
net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in
sentiment warn that the current Gold price trend may soon reverse higher
despite the fact traders remain net-long.

What is your view on Gold - bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the
form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter
@nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that
influence the global currency markets.

INVESTORS DIARY 2022

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

National Unity Day

December 22

Christmas Day

December 25

Boxing Day

December 26

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

Meikles

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

Turnall

GBH

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zeco

Lafarge

Zimre

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2022 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> info at bulls.co.zw Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell: +263 77
344 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29409 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29289 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29358 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0006.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0007.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130923 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20220930/961b7d99/attachment-0001.obj>