Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 04 April 2023

Wed Apr 5 01:59:07 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 04 April 2023

 <https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> 

ZSE commentary

ZSE rebounds in Tuesday's session.

The ZSE rebounded in Tuesday's session as the primary AllShare Index added
0.33% to 38,306.84pts while, the Midcap Index went up 0.68% to 76,743.62
pts. The Top 10 Index surged 0.22% to 22738.07pts while, on the contrary the
ZSE Agriculture Index marginally dropped 0.02% to 145.67pts.Bankers NMB led
the gainers of the day on a 15.00% jump to $60.95000 followed by sugar
processor Star Africa that grew 10.03% to $1.6874. First Mutual Holdings
advanced 10.00% to $22.0000 as apparel retailer Truworths firmed up 9.56% to
$2.7000. Hotelier RTG capped the top five risers set of the day on a 3.70%
uplift to $14.0000. On the losers end Property concern Mashonaland Holdings
declined 6.14% to $13.0785 while, First Capital bank retreated 5.30% to
$30.1498. Retailer OK Zimbabwe gave up 2.94% to $65.0159 as Hippo Valley
weakened 0.96% to $620.0000. Ariston Holdings completed the list on a 0.52%
slide to $10.1143.

Activity aggregates were improved in the day as volume of shares traded
soared 129.52% to 5.28m while value outturn swelled up 168.51% to $1.13bn.
Econet, Ecocash, OKZim and Delta proved to be the counters of choice in the
session as they contributed 82.56% of the volume of shares traded while,
Econet and Delta contributed 76.07% of the value. On the VFEX a total of
1,133,289 shares worth USD$351,126.45 traded. Seed Co International gained
0.15% to USD$0.2610. Axia and Simbisa Brands dipped 4.55% and 0.07% to close
USD$0.1050 and USD$0.4197 respectively. Bindura, Caledonia, Innscor,
NatFoods, Nedbank and Padenga were unchanged at previous trading levels. MIZ
increased 5.25% to $2.1100 as Morgan & Co MCS closed 4.58% at $31.0000.
Datvest and Old Mutual ETF fell 0.54% and 0.06% to end pegged at $1.8500 and
$9.4943 apiece. The Tigere REIT slipped 1.06% to $50.0854. Elsewhere,
Masimba released its FY22 results where it posted at PAT of ZWL$12.36
billion and declared a dividend of 0.315 US cents per share. efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand slips on slowdown fears; shares jump

(Reuters) - South Africa's stocks jumped on Tuesday while the rand slipped
after a decision by major oil producers to reduce supply on Sunday, which
triggered concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies,
known as OPEC+, announced they would reduce their oil supply by about 1.16
million barrels per day.

"The production cut announcement by OPEC+ has brought back inflation and
recessionary fears into the market, leaving risk sensitive currencies like
the rand exposed," IG analyst Warren Venketas told Reuters, adding the
weaker rand contributed to the strength of the local bourse.

Register for free to Reuters and know the full story

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Both the blue-chip Top 40 index (.JTOPI) and the benchmark all-share index
(.JALSH) closed more than 1% higher, led by a gain of almost 1.6% in the
resources (.JRESI) index.

"Mining companies ... surged towards the latter end of the trading day,"
Venketas said.

At 1559 GMT, the rand was down 0.76% at 17.9450 against the dollar.

The government's benchmark 2030 bond was weaker, with the yield up 1.5 basis
points to 9.88%.

Nigeria

Naira plunges to new low at official window

Naira weakened to a new low at the official market on Monday, falling 0.46
per cent against the United States dollar at the spot market window.

According to data published by FMDQ, where forex is officially traded, the
naira opened trading at N461.70 and closed at N463.50 to a dollar on Monday.

This represents a N2.12 or 0.46 per cent depreciation as against N461.38
posted in the previous market session last Friday.

The domestic unit reached an intra-day high of N460.00 and hit a low of
N466.00 before it eventually settled at N463.50 per $1 at the close of
business on Monday.

The rate is the weakest rate the naira has exchanged this year. In the first
quarter of the year, the currency moved between the exchange range of
N461.00 and N462 benchmark to a dollar, after closing the previous year at
N461.50 per $1.

At N463.50 per $1, the local fiat has declined by at least 0.43 per cent in
less than four months into this year amidst forex scarcity, dwindling
foreign reserves and the controversial naira redesign policy.

Within the business period, forex turnover decreased significantly by 7.4
per cent with $175.40 million recorded at the close of business on Monday as
against the $188.37 million posted in the previous session last week Friday.

However, the naira appreciated significantly against the greenback at the
parallel market on Monday.

According to currency rates collated in cities across the country, the
domestic currency closed at N738.46 to a dollar on Monday as against N746.29
per $1 it closed on Friday last week.

The spread between the official and unofficial market is pegged at N274.96,
leaving a margin of N59.32 per cent at the close of business on Monday.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

U.S. dollar slumps after weak data; markets betting Fed near end of hiking
cycle

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar sank to a two-month low on Tuesday as another
round of weak economic data reinforced investor bets that the Federal
Reserve is nearly done with its tightening cycle even as other central banks
are seen still raising interest rates to overcome persistently high
inflation.

Sterling rose to a new 10-month high against the dollar, while the euro
reached its highest since February.

Data showing U.S. job openings in February dropping to the lowest in nearly
two years, and the continued decline in factory orders, undermined the
dollar as the numbers indicated that rate hikes may be nearing an end.

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased 632,000 to 9.9 million in
February, the lowest since May 2021, according to the monthly Job Openings
and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report.

"The main trigger was the JOLTS data, which is starting to point to labor
market moderating. So we have this kind of grind lower in the dollar and
we're also looking at yields," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at
UBS in New York.

"The question is: Is the dollar hurt more by lower yields or is it helped
more by weaker equities in the kind of risk-off environment? It seems like
yields have a bigger impact."

On Tuesday, U.S. two-year Treasury yields, which tend to reflect interest
rate expectations, dropped 12 basis points (bps) to 3.86% . For the month of
March, two-year yields plunged nearly 74 bps, the worst monthly fall since
January 2008 in the midst of the global financial crisis.

U.S. factory orders also declined for a second straight month, down 0.7% in
February after falling 2.1% in January.

In afternoon trading, the dollar index dropped to a two-month low of 101.45
and was last down 0.4% at 101.58.

"We have a lot of data to chew on this week that will either show that the
U.S. economy is resilient enough to withstand the Fed's ongoing rate-hike
mentality or if markets will get their break," said Juan Perez, director of
trading at Monex USA in Washington.

"Add poor data to a banking crisis, plus the rise in oil supply costs, and
you may get more favorable odds for rate cuts by next year."

On Tuesday, the rate futures market priced in a roughly even chance of a
25-bp rate hike in May, with the rest of the odds tilted toward a pause from
the Fed. On Monday, the probability of a 25-bp hike next month was more than
65%.

The rates market has also factored in Fed cuts by end-December.

Sterling rose to $1.2525, the highest since June 2022, after breaching a
significant resistance level. The pound last changed hands at $1.2497, up
0.7%.

The euro reached $1.0973, the most in two months. It was last up 0.4% at
$1.0951, with traders convinced that the European Central Bank has more rate
hikes to come.

"We have the view for some time that the dollar has seen its peak and we're
sticking with it. We have a $1.15 forecast for the euro against the dollar
in the second half," UBS' Serebriakov said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as expected, left its cash rate
unchanged at 3.6%, breaking a run of 10 straight hikes as policymakers said
additional time was needed to "assess the impact of the increase in interest
rates to date and the economic outlook".

The Australian dollar was last down 0.6% at US$0.6743 .

Elsewhere, the dollar fell 0.6% against the Japanese yen to 131.635 .

Currency bid prices at 2:53PM (1853 GMT)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold races past $2,000/oz after weaker US data

(Reuters) - Gold extended gains on Tuesday and crossed the key $2,000 level
as the dollar and yields fell, while weaker U.S. economic data emboldened
bets for slower rate hikes despite mounting concerns over oil-led inflation.

Spot gold was up 1.7% at $2,017.92 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT),
after reaching its highest since March 9 last year at $2,024.89 earlier.
U.S. gold futures settled 1.9% higher at $2,038.20.

Tracking gold's gains, silver jumped 3.8% to $24.91 per ounce, platinum rose
3.3% to $1,017.91, while palladium was up 0.3% at $1,456.05.

"We're in this very positive backdrop for gold in which we have the slowing
of economic data along with inflationary pressures remaining elevated," said
David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Burnishing gold's appeal, especially among traders holding other currencies,
the dollar added to its losses after data showed U.S. job openings in
February dropped to a near two-year low, while factory orders also dipped.

A surge in oil prices this week after a surprise output cut by OPEC+ has
helped the zero-yield gold, traditionally considered the preferred inflation
hedge, shake off the usual pressure from the likelihood of interest rate
hikes that could be implemented to rein in rising price pressures.

"From a technical perspective, the gold price is likely to remain strong and
stabilize at its current level or even higher. The $2,050-mark could act as
an important resistance level, and if breached, prices could quickly soar
towards its all-time high," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals dealer
at Heraeus.

Markets now see about a 43% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a
quarter basis point in May, with a roughly 57% chance of a pause.

But Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, said more rate hikes could
cause gold to unwind some of its recent gains.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Good Friday

April 7

Easter Saturday

April 8

Easter Sunday

April 9

Easter Monday

April 10

Independence Day

April 18

Workers' Day

May 1

Africa Day

May 25

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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