Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 April 2023

Wed Apr 12 00:57:57 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 April 2023

 <https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> 

ZSE commentary

Heavies drag down the market in week opener

Heavies dragged down the market in the opening session of the week, post
easter holidays, as the All-Share Index parred 1.19% to 37,919.08pts. The
ZSE Top 10 Index retreated 2.16% to 22,100.15pts mainly dragged down by
Ecocash and Econet. On the contrary, the Agriculture Index gained 1.20% to
149.26pts while, the Mid Cap Index rose 1.69% to 80,260.52pts. Headlining
the laggards of the day was the duo of Ecocash and Econet that lost 8.73%
and 8.57% to settle at $60.8060 and $215.2842 respectively, as selling
pressure increased in the two counters post release of cautionary
announcements. Retailer Ok Zimbabwe dropped 4.19% to close pegged at a VWAP
of $62.6861 while, agriculture concern Tanganda fell 3.28% to $338.5294.
Hotelier RTG capped the top five worst performers of the day on a 2.25% loss
to $16.6167. A total of twenty-three counters registered price movements,
segregated into twelve losers and eleven gainers to see the market close
with a negative breadth of one.

Partially mitigating the losses of the day was construction company Masimba
Holdings that edged up 15% to $166.7500 trailed by agriculture concern CFI
that advanced 15.00% to $677.1000. Packaging group Proplastics garnered
10.00% to $110.0000 while, First Mutual closed at $22.0000 following a 8.65%
jump to $22.2727. Property concern Mashonaland Holdings added 7.14% to
$15.0000 as it capped the top five gainers of the day. Activity aggregates
were depressed in the session as volume traded was down 59.73% to 1.71m
while,turnover declined 63.61% to see $328.92m exchange hands. Econet, NMB
and Zimpapers drove the volume aggregates of the day with respective
contributions of 27.24%, 19.40% and 14.61%. Threesome in Econet, Delta and
Hippo Valley were the value leaders with a combined contribution of 83.59%.
The ETF Index was up 13.87% at 557.98pts buoyed by Morgan & Co Made in Zim
ETF that rose by 0.14%. Elsewhere on the VFEX, the All Share Index was 0.28%
weaker at 91.00pts as a total of five countersretreated while, one sailed
stable. Bindura led the laggards on the aforementioned market as it dropped
3.05%. 

efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand gains as dollar slips ahead of U.S. inflation data

(Reuters) - The South African rand gained against the dollar on Tuesday as
the U.S. currency fell ahead of inflation data, which could provide some
clues on the monetary policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve.

At 1556 GMT, the rand traded at 18.3825 against the dollar, 0.58% stronger
than its previous close.

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six rivals, was last
trading down 0.23% at 102.23 following strong gains the previous day.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index (.JTOPI) closed 1.22%
higher, while the broader all-share index (.JALSH) closed up 1.14%.

"The sustainability of gains in the rand and on the JSE all-share index are
likely to be tested in a news-heavy week," Shaun Murison, senior market
analyst at IG, told Reuters.

Wednesday's release of U.S. inflation data and minutes from March's Federal
Open Market Committee meeting may cause short-term market volatility, he
added.

Meanwhile in South Africa, local manufacturing data released on Tuesday
showed a 5.2% drop in annual output for February.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was marginally higher, with
the yield down 1 basis point to 9.93%.

Ghana

Cedi loses marginal grounds against dollar; $1 now sells for ¢11.30

After two sustained weeks of improvement in value, the cedi begun this week
on a depreciation trajectory.

It lost marginal grounds against the dollar in the retail market.

The local currency sold at ¢11.30 to the US dollar at the forex bureau today
April 11, 2023.

The same story could also be said about the cedi’s performance to the pound
and the euro.

It’s unclear what is causing the sudden depreciation of the cedi.

Analysts are however hopeful that Ghana will secure the bailout from the
International Monetary Fund to help stabilise the economy. This will help
shore up the value of the cedi.

The Financial Times of UK had said Ghana hopes to take a big step towards
restructuring its $58 billion-worth of debt this week, with its bilateral
creditors meeting on Tuesday, April 11, 20223, to discuss whether to provide
enough relief to unlock a $3 billion IMF bailout.

It quoted Finance Minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, that he had “hope” those
bilateral creditors would consent to enough debt relief to enable the
country to tap an IMF loan package agreed last year.

Economic Analyst, Kweku Arkoh-Koomson, earlier projected a stable cedi in
the near term if the external debt restructuring is successful.

“As we wait for an IMF deal this second quarter, we observe that government
in the 2023 budget reiterated that the budget will be financed by
non-concessional loans. Looking at how these non-concessional loans will
also boost local reserves and improve FX liquidity, if nothing at all, the
cedi will stabilise,” he said.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar dips ahead of inflation data due Wednesday

(Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday as investors waited on inflation data
for further signs of whether price pressures are ebbing and what it means
for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

Consumer price data on Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation rose
by 0.2% in March, while core inflation rose 0.4%. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPF=ECI)

"A lot of traders are focused on this inflation data," said Edward Moya,
senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "Everyone's trying to get a
sense of does the disinflation process return and does this complicate what
the Fed does."

The Fed is seen as likely to hike rates by an additional 25 basis points at
its May 2-3 meeting, before pausing in June. Markets are also pricing for
the Fed to cut rates by year-end on an expected recession, though Fed
officials have stressed the need to keep rates high in order to bring down
inflation.

Strong jobs data for March have added to expectations that the U.S. central
bank will complete one more rate hike. The data on Friday showed employers
added 236,000 jobs while the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%.

New York Fed President John Williams said on Tuesday that the prospect of
the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate only once more and in a 25 basis
point increment is a useful starting point but the central bank's policy
path will depend on incoming data.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the U.S. central bank should be
cautious about raising rates in the face of recent banking stress, noting
that a pullback in bank lending would help quell inflation and leave less
for monetary policy to do.

Meanwhile, the Fed is on a path to shrink the size of its massive stock of
cash and bonds for several more years, and will likely also face several
more years of negative net income as well, according to a report from the
New York Fed.

The dollar index fell 0.26% to 102.20. The euro gained 0.41% to $1.0906.

The euro was also likely boosted by a rise in European bond yields on
Tuesday as traders in the region returned after markets were closed on
Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday.

Algorithms trading currencies based on the difference between European and
U.S. rates might have sold euros for dollars when U.S. Treasury yields rose
after the jobs data while European bond markets were closed, said Simon
Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

European bond yields rose sharply on Tuesday, catching up after the break.
GVD/EUR

"There's just that catch-up effect flushing through," Harvey said.

The dollar edged higher against the yen, after jumping on Monday as Bank of
Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled no hurry to dial back its massive
stimulus. The dollar was last up 0.08% against the Japanese currency at
133.73.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin breached the key $30,000 level for the first
time in 10 months. It was last up 1.9% on the day at $30,219.

Currency bid prices at 2:38PM (1838 GMT)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold climbs as dollar pauses ahead of US inflation data

(Reuters) - Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 level on Tuesday as
the dollar came off last session's peak, while traders hunkered down for
Wednesday's U.S. inflation data for cues on future interest rate hikes.

Spot gold rose 0.8% to $2,005.79 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) while
U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher at $2,019.00.

Bullion found some respite from a pause in the dollar, following a bounce in
the previous session, also helping offset pressure from higher Treasury
yields.

"At this stage of the game, the market isn't particularly fussed on whether
we get another 25 basis points" from the Federal Reserve in May, said Bart
Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

"The market is looking at the pivot and signalling lower rates as we move
deeper into the second half of 2023."

The prospect of the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate only once more
by 25 basis points is a useful starting point, said New York Fed President
John Williams, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the central
bank should be cautious about raising interest rates in the face of recent
banking stress.

Gold shed nearly 1% on Monday after strong U.S. jobs data on Friday raised
the chances of a May rate hike to around 70%.

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data on Wednesday could yield signs on
how long the Fed would continue its campaign against inflation.

"Should CPI push higher and support monetary policy tightening after strong
non-form payroll figures, real yields may turn higher thus increasing the
opportunity cost of holding gold," DailyFX analyst Warren Venketas wrote in
a note.

Central banks should not halt their fight against inflation because of
financial stability risks, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
said.

Silver was up 0.8% to $25.08 per ounce, platinum gained 0.6% to $997.20
while palladium jumped 3% to $1,454.17.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Good Friday

April 7

Easter Saturday

April 8

Easter Sunday

April 9

Easter Monday

April 10

Independence Day

April 18

Workers’ Day

May 1

Africa Day

May 25

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
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opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
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