Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 31 July 2023

Tue Aug 1 06:47:55 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 31 July 2023

 <https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> 
ZSE commentary

Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE)

The overall Market Cap for today declined by 1.69% to close at ZWL9.18
trillion. Total turnover grew by 9.15% to close at ZWL 2.41 billion.
However, total volumes traded dropped to ZWL2.10 million, which is a 44.82%
decline as compared to last week. Delta, Econet and BAT Zimbabwe were
today's three most traded counters, with a total contribution of 99.47% to
the total turnover.

The benchmark All-Share Index dropped by 1.72% to close at 114,746.13 points
at the back of 13 risers against 8 decliners. The Top 15 Index lost 2.46% to
close at 114,746.13 points and the Top 10 Index shaded 2.00% as it closed at
51,844.10 points.

The mover's list for today was led by CBZ Holdings, Truworths, and Zimre
Holdings which increased by 11.88%, 11.73%, and 9.22%, respectively.  OK
Zimbabwe and General Beltings Holdings trailed the list after advancing by
8.25% and 8.18% to close at $120.00 and $11.90, respectively, as well.

Trading on top of the negatives was BAT Zimbabwe and Delta which lost 12.12%
and 7.51%. Star Africa Corporation, Rainbow Tourism Group and FBC Holdings
were also amongst the fallers after deteriorating by 6.22%, 5.44% and 1.67%,
respectively.

Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) 

The VFEX All Share Index dwindled by 2.81% as it closed at 68.31 points.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand slips on weak Chinese data

(Reuters) - The South African rand slipped on Monday after a strong July
performance, on the back of weak Chinese manufacturing data that analysts
say has put pressure on emerging market currencies.

At 1505 GMT, the rand traded at 17.8000 against the dollar , over 1.1%
weaker than its previous close on Friday.

The dollar was little changed at 101.64 against a basket of global
currencies.

"After a volatile week last week, the rand has been pushed back by
underwhelming Chinese manufacturing PMI ... that has filtered across global
markets with the largest impact (on) commodity linked currencies like the
(rand)," said DailyFX analyst Warren Venketas in a research note.

Like other emerging market currencies, the risk-sensitive rand often takes
cues from economic data points coming out of global players such as China
and the United States.

Despite the losses for the day, the rand has gained more than 5% against the
dollar this month.

Data released by the South African Revenue Service on Monday showed the
country recorded a 3.52 billion rand ($198.13 million) trade deficit in June
(ZATBAL=ECI). Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a trade surplus of
11.85 billion rand.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top 40 index (.JTOPI)
ended up 0.7% while the broader all-share index (.JALSH) closed 0.6% higher.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker, with the yield up
2.5 basis points to 10.210%.

($1 = 17.7662 rand)

Nigeria

Naira appreciates at official market

Naira gained significantly against the United States dollar on the Investors
and Exporters (I&E) on Monday, data posted on the FMDQ website showed.

The naira opened sales at N784.91 on Monday and eventually closed at N756.94
per dollar, the data showed.

The rate represents a 2.43 per cent appreciation from N775.76 to a dollar
the local unit exchanged last Friday.

Foreign exchange turnover significantly increased from the amount recorded
in the previous session on Friday last week as forex supply climbed from
$54.18 million to $67.21 million.

This signifies a 24.1 per cent increase from the amount posted in the
previous session.

FIRS

Within the business period, the naira experienced an intraday high of
N651.00 and a low of N830.00 before closing at N756.94 per $1.

In the parallel market segment, the currency depreciated further on Monday.

Information gathered from the market revealed that the dollar was exchanged
at N865 and above on Monday and sold at N870.00 per $1.

This is against the N860.00 and 865.00 mark the currency traded last week.

"The demand for the dollar has been high; that is why the price has been
going up," a black market dealer told PREMIUM TIMES Monday evening.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar gains after Fed loan survey, yen slips

(Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Monday after a survey from the
Federal Reserve showed U.S. banks reported tighter credit standards and
weaker loan demand during the second quarter, a sign rising interest rates
are having an impact on the economy.

The Fed's quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, or SLOOS, which is
directed both at businesses and consumers, also showed that banks expect to
further tighten standards over the rest of 2023.

"Of course, in a higher interest rate environment you'd expect to see a
tightening of lending standards and also a softening of demand," said Marc
Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies,
rose 0.28% after trading little changed earlier in the session.

The U.S. unemployment report for June on Friday will likely be strong while
next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI), also for June, may show the pace of
inflation increasing for the first time from a year ago, Chandler said.

"Some people think it's the tip of the iceberg. Gasoline prices are rising,"
he said.

Friday's non-farm payrolls will be the first of several data points that
will shape a Fed interest rate decision in late September. Before then,
central bank leaders will attend the Fed's Aug. 24-26 symposium in Jackson
Hole, Wyoming, where structural shifts in the global economy will be in
focus.

"We'll have to see if the data from the U.S. continues to paint a resilient
picture of the U.S. economy, and if it does, that can help the dollar at
least tread water between now and Jackson Hole," said Joe Manimbo, senior
market analyst at Convera in Washington.

The euro retreated from early gains after data showed economic growth in
Europe nudged higher and inflation ticked lower. The euro fell 0.2% to
$1.0993.

The yen extended losses after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) last week loosened its
grip on interest rates, but the currency posted its first monthly gain
against the dollar since March.

The dollar advanced 0.78% against the yen at 142.250 after a fresh
intervention by the BoJ on Monday.

The yen went into a tailspin on Friday as traders tried to determine the
implications of the BoJ's move to maintain ultra-low rates while making its
bond yield curve control (YCC) policy more flexible and loosening its
defense of a long-term rate cap.

The BoJ's policy of keeping yields pinned down has weighed heavily on the
Japanese currency for the past year, and fresh intervention on Monday showed
it could continue to do so.

Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield surged to a nine-year high,
spurring the central bank to conduct additional purchase operations to slow
its rise.

Elsewhere in Asia, data showed China's manufacturing activity fell for a
fourth straight month in July, though the China-exposed Australian dollar
and Chinese shares were buoyed by news of further measures to spur the
country's sputtering economic recovery.

The Aussie rose 1.05% at $0.6717, and the offshore yuan slipped 0.08% at
7.1433 per dollar, drawing some support from an announcement from China's
State Council on Monday on measures to restore and expand consumption in the
automobile, real estate and services sector.

The dollar posted its first monthly loss against the yen since March, and
its second successive monthly loss against the euro and pound. A key driver
of the dollar's strength may have come to an end with last week's
25-basis-point hike.

Data on Friday showed that the annual U.S. inflation rate rose in June at
its slowest pace in more than two years, with underlying price pressure
receding, easing pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to
continue raising rates.

The euro earlier rose after data showed euro zone inflation fell further in
July, while the bloc returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 with a
greater-than-expected expansion.

The euro is eyeing a monthly gain of about 1%. Last week's European Central
Bank policy meeting raised the possibility of a rate pause in September,
though Rabobank analysts said Monday's data "allow the ECB to both argue for
a longer hold as well as for another hike".

Sterling fell 0.13% at $1.2833, but notched a 1.0% monthly gain, ahead of
the Bank of England's (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday. Markets are evenly
divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 4:07 p.m. (2007 GMT)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold set for best month in four as rate-hike cycle nears end

Gold prices rose on Monday, putting them on track for their best month in
four as an overall weaker dollar and expectations that major global central
banks are nearing a peak with interest rate hikes boosted investor
sentiment.

Spot gold gained 0.6% to $1,971.27 per ounce. Bullion is up 2.5% so far this
month.

The dollar index, meanwhile, was heading for its second straight monthly
decline, making gold more attractive for other currency holders.

Recent data showing signs of cooling inflation in the United States has
raised expectations that the Federal Reserve was closer to ending its
fastest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will
leave rates unchanged this year is at 60%.

"I don't think the Fed's going to make a move in September, but later in the
year, if we continue to get strong economic data, the Fed probably will make
one more rate-hike," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco.

"Right now, the gold and silver markets are waiting for the next catalyst...
if demand from China starts to recover, we see more upside in gold and
silver."

Two European Central Bank policymakers on Friday also raised the prospect of
an end to its steepest and longest string of rate rises.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion.

"Markets feel vindicated with their assessment that Fed rates are at or near
their terminal rate, with key inflation reports from the U.S. all pointing
towards a faster pace of disinflation," said Matt Simpson, senior analyst at
City Index.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Heroes' Day

Aug 14

Defence Forces Day

Aug 15

zIMBABWE

2023 harmonised elections

August 23

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
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whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
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any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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