Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 28 August 2023

Mon Aug 28 07:30:42 CAT 2023

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 28 August 2023 

 <https://www.nedbank.co.zw/> 

ü  Nigeria: Concerns As NBS Revised Methodology Puts Nigeria's Unemployment Rate At 4.1%

ü  Uganda: Shell Expands Its Network in Uganda With 10 New Fuel Stations

ü  Kenya: Avocado Sales Growth Sustains Kakuzi Half Year Profit Run to Sh171.1 Million

ü  Nigeria: Govt Seeks Stakeholders' Collaboration On Energy Stability

ü  Nigeria: 5.3m Prepaid Meters Risk Crashing Over Software Expiration

ü  Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed - Ethiopia Granted 1-Year Waiver On Chinese Debt

ü  Africa: BRICS+ and the Future of the Us Dollar

ü  Nigeria Ranks 7th in Global Mobile Phone Usage - NCC

ü  Uganda: Who Is Behind the Digital Number Plates Deal?

ü  Africa: Global Rice Shortage Driving up Prices in Africa's Largest Slum

ü  Africa: Is the BRICS Group Shaping up to Challenge U.S. Leadership?

ü  Evergrande: Shares in the crisis-hit Chinese developer plunge by 80%

ü  US faces more interest rate rises to cool inflation

ü  Wilko: New bid emerges for stricken retail chain

ü  Heineken sells off Russian beer business for €1

 <https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> Nigeria: Concerns As NBS Revised Methodology Puts Nigeria's Unemployment Rate At 4.1%

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revised methodology released yesterday, which put the country's present unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of the year (Q1 2023), compared to 5.3 per cent in the preceding quarter, has attracted criticism.

Analysts faulted the methodology, arguing that it does not allow for a better understanding of the actual level of unemployment in the country, which remains a major socio-economic challenge. This, according to them could mislead the governments, policymakers and other users of the NBS figures.

The new figures followed the review and unveiling of a new methodology for the calculation of unemployment which according to the NBS, was consistent with the International Labour Organisation (ILO) standard methodology adopted in several jurisdictions.

Speaking at the launch of the new Nigeria Labour Force Survey (NLFS), using the revised methodology, the Statistician-General of the Federation (SGF)/Chief Executive, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Semiu Adeniran, stressed that the new numbers do not necessarily change the dire unemployment challenge in the country and urged the government not to go to sleep over the announcement.

He added that the new unemployment data was only arrived at as a result of the change in the measuring template and not what the government had done.

"About one-third (36.4% in Q4 2022 and 33.2% in Q1 2023) of employed persons worked less than 40 hours per week in both quarters. This was most common among women, individuals with lower levels of education, young people, and those living in rural areas.

"Underemployment rate which is a share of employed people working less than 40 hours per week and declaring themselves willing and available to work more was 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 12.2 per cent in Q1 2023. The share of wage employment was 13.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and 11.8 per cent in Q1 2023.

"Most Nigerians operate their own businesses or engaged in farming activities. The shares are 73.1 per cent and 75.4 per cent in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 respectively. A further 10.7 per cent in Q4 2022 and 10.6per cent in Q1 2023 were engaged helping in a household business. In Q4 2022, 2.6 per cent were engaged as Apprentices/Interns and 2.2% in Q1, 2023.

"Unemployment stood at 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022 and 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023. This aligns with the rates in other developing countries where work, even if only for a few hours and in low-productivity jobs, is essential to make ends meet, particularly in the absence of any social protection for the unemployed," it stated.

However, the NBS boss stated that using the ILO definition, the underemployment rate stood 21.2 per cent in Q1 compared to 13.7 per cent in Q4 2022.

He said underemployment remained a, "more significant issue for Nigerians, whereby persons engaged in one activity or the other yet indicate interest and availability to take on more work, due to inadequacy of the jobs they are engaged in at the time."

This, he said, meant that though persons are engaged, the engagement is not sufficient for them, and they would like to work additional hours of work.

The report further revealed that 92.6 per cent of employed persons were also engaged informally in Q1 compared to 3.5 per cent in the preceding quarter.

Adeniran said, "This is very interesting and useful information for the government, particularly at this time when discussions are ongoing on palliative measures to be taken following the removal of petrol subsidies."

He added that unemployment remained a challenge faced by countries across the world including Nigeria.

The last time the statistical agency released the country's jobs data was in November 2021 when it made public the labour statistics for the fourth quarter of 2020, which then revealed that 23.18 million Nigerians were jobless while the unemployment rate was then put at 33.3 per cent.

Nonetheless, Adeniran clarified that the latest unemployment figure does not imply a reduction from the previous 33.3 per cent adding, "therefore government should go to sleep."

Rather, the statistician-general said, "The figures today are not based on any performance of any sort, but strictly, and I repeat, strictly on the change in methodology.

"As we have shown, this is based on the new ILO standard, which Nigeria is part and parcel of, as a country. As a matter of fact, the current Chair of the ILO Governing Board is Nigeria's Permanent Representative to the United Nations in Geneva, H.E, Ambassador Abiodun Richards, so with this, we cannot continue to be at odds with the ILO standard."

He explained that the updated methodology altered the definition of the computation of the labour data.

According to him, the new definition of the labour force consists of anyone from the age of 15 years and above, who is willing, available, and able to work and contrasts with the old definition which recognised those aged between 15 and 64 who were willing, available, and able to work during the reference period of seven days.

In addition, the new definition of an unemployed person is anyone within the labour force who within the reference period, (previous seven days) did not work for a minimum of one hour.

He said, "This is a significant change from the old definition, where to qualify to be employed, a person needed to have worked for a minimum of 20 hours within the reference period of seven days."

The NBS boss further pointed out that the definition of under-employed was also altered in the new framework.

He said under the old definition, a person is considered under-employed if he or she worked between 20 and 39 hours within the reference period of a week.

However, under the new definition, anyone working under 40 hours, that is 1 - 39 hours a week and willing to accept more hours of work is considered under-employed.

However, a former head of a government agency who pleaded to remain anonymous, in reacting to the report, pointed out that while international comparison was good, it shouldn't be at the expense of policy making.

The source stressed that there should be an alignment between what the government was tracking and what the NBS was tracking, adding that evidence-based policy decisions remains the primary and most important objective of data.

He explained: "The old method had these new numbers for international comparison purposes. All that has happened is they removed the other numbers and want to focus only on ILO which was always there. If government plans to encourage full time employment for Nigerians and expends resources towards that, then why should they be tracking one hour?

"Government can't be targeting full time and NBS is using something else. How will policy making know whether it's working or not, when there is a mismatch between the data they are collecting and the policy they are pursuing?

"Now they only want to focus on data comparability and it isn't even really comparable internationally because there are still significant differences across countries. Data is primarily used to give policy makers an idea of the problem so they can proffer solutions and monitor impact of those solutions. If you say the problem is four per cent, they (policymakers) will proffer solutions for four per cent and monitor progress towards that four per cent.

"When at four per cent, we claim we are almost full employment with rates less than the United States and the United Kingdom and most of Europe then, it won't affect crime though or poverty so you will wonder why a country with four per cent unemployment rate has rising crime and poverty since employment is supposed to correct both to an extent

"But more important policy makers cannot have a target to increase full time employment and be tracking one-hour work. It's a mismatch. Let it be clear that policy is directed towards providing just an hour work and then it's aligned. The intuitiveness and usefulness of data has to take precedence over adherence to some international standards.

In the same vein, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) dismissed the new methodology employed by the NBS, describing it as "an act deliberately antithetical to Nigeria's lived reality."

The CSJ rejected the NBS' findings, arguing that they were not supported by the increasing unemployment in Nigeria since the last report in 2020 which reported 33.3 per cent unemployment rate in Nigeria.

It stated: "Since 2020, Nigeria's economic challenges have increased with galloping inflation, factory closures, rural dwellers who have been prevented by insecurity from planting and harvesting and a public sector with a moratorium on new recruitments."

The Lead Director of CSJ, Eze Onyekpere added, "the whole basis of a job report is to help the government to determine whether its plans, policies and laws geared at reducing unemployment are achieving the desired milestones," adding that: "what is the point of a job report that tells the government that more Nigerians are employed when it is a clear and notorious fact that unemployment is increasing?

"The NBS is counting people who are working for at least one hour in a week or who are self-employed in low-productivity activities as 'employed,"' said Onyekpere. "This is not an accurate reflection of the reality of the Nigerian labor market."

He said further: "Simply to satisfy a fad, it is a waste of taxpayers' money to produce a report that adds no value to the Nigerian people and their economy."

According to him, the "CSJ believes that these statistics do not in any way reflect the prevailing economic challenges experienced by Nigerians, especially in recent times.

"The reported unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent in the NLFS raises serious concerns about the relevance and accuracy of the methodology and the relevance of the findings to the lived experiences of Nigerians.

"This reported rate is incongruent with the economic challenges faced by a significant percentage of the population.

"We call on the NBS to reconsider its methodology and ensure that it accurately captures the full spectrum of employment challenges faced by Nigerians.

"It is essential that job reports reflect the realities and provide an honest assessment of the economic landscape. Only through accurate data can the government develop effective strategies that deliver on its promises and address the pressing issues facing our nation," Onyekpere added.

The CSJ also called on the government to ignore the report, take steps to create more decent jobs and to improve the livelihoods of Nigerians.

Also reacting to the updated data, Wealth Management and Business Development Consultant, Mr. Ibrahim Shelleng, told THISDAY that "While this does not mean Nigeria's unemployment figures have drastically turned around, it does allow for a better understanding of those in the population that are unproductive and require the greatest intervention."

He said, "The new ILO methodology used by the NBS aims to stratify all aspects of employment. The previous methodology focused on the working population that was engaged in productive activities (goods or services) for a minimum of 20 hours a week.

"It considered the unemployed as those who worked for less than 20 hours per week or did not work at all but were actively searching. This essentially excluded the informal economy that forms a large base of the Nigerian economy."

According to him, "The new methodology now factors all those of working age that are involved in productive activities for pay or profit. This allows for the capture of informal productive activities that would otherwise not be represented in employment statistics.

"With this new methodology, there is more of a focus on productive output over hours worked. However, this new amethodology, though in alignment with international best practice, may downplay the scale of the unemployment/underemployment situation in the country."

Also, speaking to THISDAY on the jobs data, President Association of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, said the new methodology which includes apprentices, could significantly lower the bar and lead to wrong policy decisions by the government.

He said, "I think the unemployment number of 4.1 per cent for quarter 1 in 2023, recently announced by the NBS may not reflect the true situation on ground owing to a number of reasons including the low sample size of under 40,000 persons used in the survey as well as the adoption of the International labour organisation guidelines for employment computation which considers employment from the perspective of persons of working age who are engaged in some type of jobs for at least one hour in a week for pay or profit."

He added, "Compared to the old methodology adopted by the NBS, this new methodology which includes apprentices, tantamounts to significantly lowering the bar and could lead to wrong policy decisions by the government.

"Much as the ILO guidelines provides a basis for global comparison, it is important that Nigeria adopts country-specific guidelines which closely reflect unique employment conditions prevalent in the country."

Also, Managing Director/Chief Executive, SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, said, "the rate of the under-employed who do not even earn the minimum wage is higher.

"Based on the new unemployment rate of 4.1 per cent for Q1, there is no relief in sight and the jobless challenges still persist.

"The government need to intensify action in various interventions in the agricultural sector, SMEs and manufacturing to enable us witness a little relief by Q4."

-This Day.

Uganda: Shell Expands Its Network in Uganda With 10 New Fuel Stations

Today at it's Ndagire Road branch in Kampala, Vivo Energy Uganda, the company that distributes and markets Shell-branded fuels and lubricants announced the addition of ten new Shell fuel stations to its network.

The newly opened fuel stations are Shell Ndagire Road, Shell Nngabo, Shell Zana, Shell Mayuge, Shell Zzana Shell Nakiyanja, Shell Kira Mulawa, Shell Mityana Highway, Shell Buyala, and Shell Gayaza II.

According to the company, strategically located, the new stations mark a significant milestone in Vivo Energy Uganda's commitment towards expanding its presence and delivering innovative solutions to meet the evolving needs of Ugandan consumers.

Not only will the new stations offer fuels, they will also provide a range of services that include convenience stores offering a variety of products.

"Our new stations have been designed to offer a seamless and efficient experience. We have strategically located them in easily accessible areas, allowing our customers to fuel up and indulge in our top-quality products without hassle. Quality is at the heart of everything we do," said Alvin Bamutire, the Vivo Energy Uganda's Retail Manager.

"We are committed to delivering excellence in both our products and services. When you step into our Shell service stations, you can trust that you will find only the highest quality fuels, lubricants, and other automotive products."

Speaking at the launch event of the new sites, Vivo Energy Uganda's Managing Director, Johan Grobbelaar highlighted that the company believes in growth through continuous innovation.

"We are delighted to extend our footprint in Uganda and serve even more customers with our world-class products and services. These new sites symbolise our commitment to convenience while ensuring that our customers receive a comprehensive range of offerings. We aim to provide an exceptional experience where customers can refuel, service their vehicles, grab a bite to eat, and find all their travel essentials conveniently in one place."

The Vivo Energy Uganda Managing Director said the expansion will also stimulate economic growth through the creation of employment opportunities for people, both directly and indirectly, across the various service stations.

Kenya: Avocado Sales Growth Sustains Kakuzi Half Year Profit Run to Sh171.1 Million

Nairobi — Listed superfoods producer, Kakuzi Plc (NSE: KUKZ) has announced a Kshs 171. 1 million half-year pretax profit on the back of a difficult trading period due to the prevailing Macadamia global glut.

The firm, which recently adopted a new corporate brand identity, enjoyed a more than double profit lift against its avocado export business, which posted a Kshs 654.8 million growth, up from Kshs 288.6 million posted last year.

Speaking when he confirmed the half-year results, Kakuzi PLC Managing Director Mr Chris Flowers said the firm's bottom line had been impacted by a Kshs 329 million sectoral loss from its macadamia business.

To mitigate further losses in the Macadamia Business, Kakuzi, he said, is currently pursuing a value-addition strategy that will see the firm marketing the produce locally.

"The global macadamia glut continues to affect all leading international exporters from Kenya, Australia and South Africa. To mitigate the losses, we have adopted a local marketing strategy geared at availing value added Macadamia products, including ready-to-eat nuts, macadamia flour and cold-pressed oil," Flowers said.

While the macadamia business slowed, Kakuzi's Avocado sales accelerated, with exports to Europe and China peaking. Further avocado business growth is expected in the year's second half as exports to Malaysia and India begin to dispatch.

While confirming the firm's growth strategy, Kakuzi Chairman Mr Nick Ng'ang'a said: "At Kakuzi, we remain committed to a shared prosperity business model that prioritises all our stakeholder needs. Sustainably growing our business, actively implementing our Kakuzi, Community Partnerships, answering the call for climate action and using best practices in all we do to promote our values remains our focus."

Across the other product lines, Kakuzi has expressed confidence in its Blueberry venture prospects.

"Although our blueberry volumes are still significantly low vis-a-vis the Avocado and Macadamia outputs, the revenue stream remains firmly within the business plans and inspires further investments. Further afield, the performance of the tea, forestry, livestock, and arable land operations continue to play their important role in our crop portfolio," Said Mr Ng'ang'a.

Early this month, Kakuzi formally adopted a new corporate identity that underscores its commitments to agricultural development for the domestic and export markets.

The new Kakuzi brand is aligned with the national agricultural transformation agenda, with sustainability and climate-smart agriculture at its core.

The new Kakuzi identity, the firm's first defined brand visual system and strategy in 95 years, also signifies a transition to the contemporary world of superfoods growing for both the domestic and export markets based on a strategic decision to prioritise the production of such foods.

As part of the new branding, Kakuzi has also officially launched a range of private-label consumer products developed over the last two years for the domestic market, including ready-to-eat macadamia, gluten-free macadamia flour, cold-pressed macadamia oil and blueberry packs. Following an intensive research and development (R&D) programme by the Kakuzi team, the new branded consumer products will be progressively availed to the local market.

-Capital FM.

Nigeria: Govt Seeks Stakeholders' Collaboration On Energy Stability

The Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) has called for collaboration among stakeholders and government officials in policy-making bodies to enhance national energy efficiency and conservation.

The acting director-general of the ECN, Mr. Joseph Sunday Olayande, highlighted the importance of this collaborative effort during a workshop focused on industrial energy efficiency policy and regulatory formation.

The workshop provided capacity building and training to government energy policymakers and regulators in Nigeria.

He said that this collaborative approach aims to strengthen National Industrial Energy Efficiency (IEE) Policies and Regulatory Frameworks, fostering the adoption of Energy Management Systems Standards (EnMS/ESO/ISO 50001) across Nigeria.

A representative from UNIDO, Oluyomi Banjo, recognised energy efficiency's potential to optimise energy security and highlighted UNIDO's commitment to collaborating with Nigeria to achieve efficiency benefits.

-Daily Trust.

Nigeria: 5.3m Prepaid Meters Risk Crashing Over Software Expiration

Electricity consumers nation-wide are faced with possible dilemma and risk of not being able to energise their pre-paid meters after the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) alerted on software expiration by November 2024.

Though NERC said the pre-paid meters software would crash next year, some Electricity Distribution Companies, DisCos, have warned customers that they may not be able to load energy token by the end of this year.

LEADERSHIP Friday reports that NERC has advised DisCos to assist customers update their meters, warning that failure by electricity customers to update their metering devices would make them face challenges with recharging by next year.

In a message on its Twitter handle, the Commission said the process of updating would be free of charge, with customers expected to approach the power Distribution Companies (Discos) on how to go about it.

" If you have a prepaid meter, it may be time for an update. From November 2024, you may not be able to recharge your meter. However, updating is easy and free.

"Discos shall commence issuance of two free Key Change Tokens (KCTs) which will update your meter," NERC stated in the message.

It further stated that the process will not in any way impact the units in the meters, even it urged consumers not to be apprehensive.

"The update will not affect the units in your meter nor will it make your meter run faster than usual. Contact your Disco for more information," it said.

The NERC further explained that the update would not affect meter units, nor would it result in any acceleration of its usual operational pace.

"The update will not affect the unit in your meter, nor will it make your meter run faster than usual. Contact your DisCo for more information," NERC said.

However, a message by Ikeja DisCo said though NERC indicated that all current software for all pre-paid electricity meters in the world, including Nigeria, would expire on 24th of November 2024 in what it referred to as TID rollover, all customers with Standard Transfer Specification (STS) pre-paid meters within its network, who fail to upgrade, are at the risk staying in darkness from 1st November, 2023.

The DisCo said it had set that date for its own TID rollover process.

This move is coming as MOJEC, Nigeria's foremost indigenous meter manufacturer, has stepped up action to support DisCos in providing upgrade process for customers.

Ms Chantelle Abdul, managing director and chief executive of MOJEC International Holdings, a conglomerate with subsidiaries in the power and energy sectors, in a chat with our correspondent, confirmed that the deadline for the TID rollover migration is November 2024, not 2023.

She said NERC's directives is for electricity distribution companies and utilities as well as meter manufacturers to ensure compliance with the TID rollover for Utilities Software infrastructure (Vending Solutions) upgrades to support the issuance of the TID rollover Key Change Tokens (Tokens) as well as the conformance of the electricity meters already deployed to the customers.

She also said the directive would ensure new meters are produced on the new base date of 2014 and will not necessitate the need for TID rollover for new meters yet to be deployed.

According to Abdul, the TID rollover process is only possible if the energy meters support the TID migration.

"It is believed that all STS prepayment meters supplied (produced) since 2011 by local manufacturers and others should support the TID rollover as meters that do not support the TID rollover must be phased out of the system as customers will not be able to vend at the set deadline."

She noted that local meter manufacturers must also upgrade their infrastructure, (manufacturing software) to enable energy meters yet to be supplied to be configured with the new base date of 2014.

According to her, once the upgrade of the vending system is done by the DisCos/Utilities, meters supplied by local manufacturers must be produced on the new base date before it can work.

Currently, she stated, MOJEC meters is partnering with the DisCos/Utilities to ensure a seamless TID rollover.

"All MOJEC STS prepayment meters hardware and firmware deployed across all the electricity distribution companies comply with the TID rollover and can be migrated.

"The Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), the monitoring system for the meters deployed, can be used to seamlessly implement the TID rollover for the percentage of meters with smart features activated by the DisCos/Utilities Technical support to all DisCos/Utilities throughout the migration process," she said.

Abdul said the process had commenced for the Secondary Markets/Estates and Off-Grid projects where MOJEC controls the vending solution, with the firm having over 50 estates, she said

Speaking on the situation, she said the periodic upgrade is not something to avert as it is an algorithm of how the STS prepayment meters works.

She, however, revealed that the next TID rollover would be in over 30 years' time when the existing meters should have been phased out.

"It is also a form of security to eliminate the reuse of tokens and revenue protection to DisCo/Utilities that deploy the STS prepayment solution," she said.

Offering more explanation, she asserted that all energy prepaid meters deployed by the electricity distribution companies in Nigeria adopt the Standard Transfer Specification (STS) protocol in achieving its prepayment functionalities using its encrypted algorithm, protocols and standards.

"For all prepaid meters, this protocol regulates the encryption and uniqueness of token generation and usage by STS-certified prepayment meters. In STS-compliant tokens, the TID Rollover, also known as the Token Identifier, is a 24-bit field that contains the date and time the token was generated. It is used to check whether a token has been used in a prepayment meter. The TID is the number of minutes that have passed since January 1, 1993. The 24-bit field is incremented, which means that eventually the TID value will roll over to zero.

"All STS prepayment meters will be affected by TID roll over on the 24/11/2024. Any tokens generated after this date and utilising the 24-bit TID will be rejected by the meters as being old tokens as the TID value embedded in the token will have reset back to 0.Which raises the need to change the Base Date of the Prepayment meters from 1993 to 2014. The TID Rollover will achieve this with the use of Key Change Tokens generated by the Discos/Utility Vending systems and issued to all customers to apply on the meters physically to complete the migration," Abdul.

Meanwhile, a report released by NERC shows that distribution companies installed 171,107 meters for consumers in the first quarter of 2023.

The figure represents an additional 6,495 meters installed, which is a 3.95 percent increase compared to the 164,612 meters installed in Q4, 2022.

According to the report, only 5.36 million of the registered 12.38 million subscribers have prepaid meters.

"As of 31st March 2023, there were 12,378,243 registered customers with 43.31 percent (5,360,434) of them metered," the report reads.

"Over the course of 2023/Q1, 171,107 end-user customers were metered which increased the metering rate by 1.06 percent relative to the 42.25 percent recorded in 2022/Q4. Compared to 2022/Q4 (164,612), an additional 6,495 (+3.95%) meters were installed in 2023/Q1The report shows that the meter asset provider (MAP) scheme covered 92.71 percent of the total 171,107 installations in the quarter under review.

The new data indicates that the scheme was responsible for the installation of 158,633 meters in Q1 2023, considered a significant number.

At the beginning of the year, the federal government proposed that about six million meters are to be deployed nationwide in the first and second quarters of this year to reduce the number of unmetered electricity consumers in Nigeria.

This was disclosed in a December 2022 document on the review of the performance of the power sector/Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry under the current administration.

In the document from the Federal Ministry of Power, the government said it had successfully executed a metering initiative post privatisation with one million meters rolled out in the first phase of the National Mass Metering Programme.

The Central Bank of Nigeria and the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission were fundamental in designing and implementing this programme.

-Leadership.

Ethiopia: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed - Ethiopia Granted 1-Year Waiver On Chinese Debt

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) announced that Ethiopia has been granted a one-year grace period for debt repayments to China. This comes as the country works to finalize the restructuring of its debts.

In discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Ethiopia was given a one year postponement of repayments until the restructuring process is complete, according to PM Abiy. He called it a "big achievement" for the country.

The Prime Minister revealed the development at the sidelines of the 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. Ethiopia was one of six nations, along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, Argentina and the United Arab Emirates, accepted into the BRICS group, which also includes nations like Algeria and Nigeria seeking to join.

The one-year grace period will provide Ethiopia financial breathing room as it deals with its debt obligations to China.

PM Abiy said he secured the relief following discussions with President Xi on the sidelines of the summit.

-Reporter.

Africa: BRICS+ and the Future of the Us Dollar

Although no single alternative to the dollar is likely, the shift away from a Western-led global order has begun.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine and intensified United States (US)-China competition have had two important geostrategic consequences. They have blown new life into the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and accelerated expansion of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) bloc's role and membership, as confirmed at this week's Johannesburg summit.

These trends have hastened the shift away from a Western-led global order towards a new, still-to-be-crafted era of more uncertain and fluid multipolar connections, writes William Gumde, academic and Executive Chair of the Democracy Works Foundation. Change is in the air, and the next three decades will see the steady unfolding of this trend.

BRICS is cloaking itself in resentment against the West, particularly with the lingering effects of colonialism, imperialism and sanctions by leading Western countries. Another factor is the lack of global governance system reform, including the United Nations (UN) Security Council, World Trade Organization, and international finance institutions.

When considering BRICS's future, it's important to remember that India and China are systemic rivals. Competition between them will likely intensify, given nationalism, border disputes and competition in the South China Sea. And although countries' motivations for wanting to join BRICS differ, few global south nations will exchange one hegemon (the US) with another (China).

How will the US and its Western allies' react to a club that threatens their global dominance?

India is growing rapidly, but none of the African Futures and Innovation (AFI) forecasts indicate that its economy will compare with the size of China's in the next half century, or see growth rates experienced by China and the Asian Tigers.

India experiences a more modest demographic dividend, although its population is now larger than China's. Its services-led growth path produces slower productivity improvements than the manufacturing-driven transformation in China and the Asian Tigers. Whereas China's economy is likely to overtake the US' in size in about a decade, India's could only do so towards the end of the century (Chart 1).

Sources:

Chart 1: Forecast using International Futures model 8.04

Chart 2: Forecast using International Futures model 8.04; BRICS+ includes all likely members

(click on the graphs for the full size images)

BRICS country leaders decided at this week's summit that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would join in January 2024. Egypt and the UAE are already members of BRICS's New Development Bank. The inclusion of Argentina, not Uruguay, which is a member of the bank, was surprising. Inevitably bringing in Iran, which is under UN and other sanctions, will be the most controversial.

This first round of expansion is however only one side of the coin. How will the US and its Western allies' react to a club that threatens their global dominance? Contrary to BRICS+ members, the West (North America, the EU and countries like Japan and South Korea) shares key values and is economically a much larger group than an expanded BRICS - and will be for decades. The election of someone like Donald Trump as US president in 2024 could, however be catastrophic for the West's unity.

Average income in China is currently about 26% of that of the US. Only a collapse of the US economy would see income per capita parity between them. The situation regarding population size is of course different.

A forecast that compares the West's economic size with a fully expanded BRICS+ shows that the much-talked-about de-dollarisation of the global economy will likely be slower than many think. BRICS+ will probably only surpass the West in about two decades.

BRICS members are generally united in their desire to move away from the dollar-backed international financial system. When the US Federal Reserve Bank hikes interest rates, the effect can plunge smaller economies into turmoil. It subjects them to exogenous shocks for no domestic reason, and the dollar provides the US with an extraordinarily powerful hammer to wield in its interests.

The most important shift in the dollar's power will occur once oil and gas prices are no longer set in dollars

Russia, under Western sanctions, is most eager to end its punishment by the West, and has recently been joined by China, given the extent of China-bashing that passes for US foreign policy.

Rather than offering a single replacement for the US dollar, the diversification efforts will likely increase the power of BRICS members' national currencies. All except Brazil have established alternatives to the dollar-denominated international payment messaging system, SWIFT, with varying degrees of success. Africa has the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), an intercontinental platform to reduce reliance on dollar trading.

Already most BRICS bilateral trade payments are done in each country's national currency, and the Johannesburg summit declaration proposes additional measures in this regard. Members are also diversifying their foreign reserves away from the US dollar, although mostly to the euro, Swiss franc, British pound or Japanese yen.

The most important shift in the power of the US dollar will occur once oil and gas prices are no longer set in US dollars. This was probably the main consideration for including Saudi Arabia and the UAE as new BRICS members.

Rather than a single currency, what will emerge are new currency blocs based on trade

There is no prospect of a replacement for the dollar in the foreseeable future. Trade among BRICS countries is too small to sustain a common currency. It only makes sense to trade in national currencies (not freely convertible) if the trade balance between the countries is more or less equal.

Russia, for example, recently sold lots of oil to India, dealing in rupees. But because India exports much less to Russia than it imports, Moscow now sits with rupees it cannot spend or convert - except to buy goods from India.

China's renminbi isn't sufficiently convertible and lacks the deep capital markets, market transparency, independent central banks and supporting financial institutions of Western banks. There are also perceptions of risk associated with China's future - the country is an autocracy that will struggle to maintain stability as economic growth diminishes. India is also bound to oppose a common currency, given its concerns about China as a regional and potential global competitor.

So rather than a single alternative to the US dollar, what will emerge are new currency blocs (each bound to be quite leaky) based on bilateral and multilateral trade among the Middle East and China, South America, West Africa and elsewhere. And the slow reduction in the power of the greenback.

Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures and Innovation, ISS Pretoria

-ISS.

Nigeria Ranks 7th in Global Mobile Phone Usage - NCC

The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) says Nigeria has ranked as the 7th country in the global usage of mobile phones and 11th in terms of internet penetration.

NCC Executive Vice-Chairman, Umar Danbatta, made this known in Abuja on Thursday, at the 'Emerging Technology Forum' for stakeholders in the telecommunications industry.

According to Danbatta, the worldwide data gathered by the Network Readiness Index (NRI) team demonstrated that digital transformation was a global need in order to optimise the social and economic effects of the digital era.

Danbatta was represented by the Head, Spectrum Database Management of the Commission, Abraham Oshadami, and stated that the NRI evaluated the performance of 131 economies under technology (infrastructure), people, governance and effect.

NRI is a guiding metric that measures the role and impact of information and communication technology (ICT).

He said, "Nigeria is a telecommunications powerhouse, accounting for 82 per cent of the continent's telecom subscribers and 29 per cent of the continent's internet consumption.

"Our country ranks eleventh in the world for internet penetration and seventh in mobile phone usage.

"The NRI team's global data shows that digital transformation is a global imperative for maximising the social and economic effects of the digital era.

"Despite these remarkable metrics, our Network Readiness Index ranking for 2022 of 109th out of 131 countries is both humbling and challenging."

For him, navigating the era of transformation, requires innovation, strategic investments, and a growth-friendly ecosystem.

-Vanguard.

Uganda: Who Is Behind the Digital Number Plates Deal?

The persistent entanglement of controversy and government projects has raised eyebrows and fueled widespread frustration as the scandal surrounding the digitalized number plates debacle takes center stage.

Amidst accusations of mafia involvement, abuse of procurement processes, and lack of coordination among government agencies, questions continue to mount regarding the factors contributing to Uganda's recurrent engagement in flawed and questionable projects.

The shadowy world of alleged mafias, government brokers, and clandestine backdoor deals is once again under scrutiny, with the digitalized number plates saga igniting fresh concerns about the mechanisms steering government initiatives.

In the midst of these allegations, uncertainty abounds as the public wonders who might be orchestrating these deals and to what end.

The controversy surrounding the digitalized number plates project has invited speculation and intrigue, with prominent figures offering their insights.

Otafiire, speaking on the issue, seemed unsure about the situation, prompting speculation about potential motives behind the project.

Erias Lukwago, the Lord Mayor, suggests that government channels for proper investment guidance have been systematically exploited, allowing vested interests to manipulate project outcomes.

Julius Mukunda of the civil society budget advocacy group CSBAG emphasized that established processes, like the procurement process, should be adhered to in government projects.

He highlighted the abuse of these processes, revealing that the Auditor General's report disclosed a staggering loss of 2.2 trillion shillings in the previous fiscal year due to procurement irregularities.

This unsettling trend is not new to Uganda, as controversies have plagued various government projects, including the Lubowa Specialized Hospital, Vinci Coffee Company, Atiak Sugar Factory, and the Kampala-Entebbe Expressway.

Mukunda points to poor coordination among government agencies, highlighting a lack of collective understanding and adherence to proper protocol.

The contrasting responses from senior government ministers Otafiire and Muhwezi have only deepened public skepticism.

Many are now advocating for a pause in the implementation of the digitalized number plate project until all concerns are addressed.

Mukunda proposes a return to the drawing board, urging a thorough reassessment and harmonization of the project's details before any further steps are taken.

Ssebamala voices his doubts about the suitability of the Joint Stock Company responsible for the project, calling for its reevaluation or removal from the equation.

As frustration mounts and questions multiply, a common theme emerges: Why does Uganda seem to repeat its mistakes, and are the alleged mafias and powerful interests truly beyond the reach of effective control?

Mukunda suggests that these powerful players may be subverting collective cabinet decisions, further complicating the situation.

The ongoing saga of the digitalized number plates serves as a stark reminder of the challenges Uganda faces in maintaining transparency, accountability, and effective governance in its projects.

As the nation grapples with these issues, it remains to be seen whether the lessons from this controversy will prompt systemic changes that can prevent future debacles.

Africa: Global Rice Shortage Driving up Prices in Africa's Largest Slum

The Associated Press reported that rice prices are up dramatically in places like Africa’s largest slum, Kibera, in Nairobi, Kenya. A 55-pound bag of rice has risen in cost from June to August 2023 by about 20 percent, said the AP.

Global rice exports are at about 80 percent of needed supply. That, says the AP, amounts to 10.4 million tons that the world’s markets are short.

The proximate cause of the shortage is India’s government’s decision in July 2023 to restrict exports. India is the world’s leading exporter of rice. With its government’s choice ahead of next year’s elections, competitors like Vietnam are looking to take advantage of the shortfall even as they too attempt to curb domestic inflation.

However, even before India’s move, other countries had begun stockpiling rice in anticipation of weather brought on by the El Nino effect, expected to be more extreme than in the past. Moreover, global food security is threatened by other factors as well. These include wheat prices rising with the Russia-Ukraine war and other impacts of climate change besides El Nino.

Africa: Is the BRICS Group Shaping up to Challenge U.S. Leadership?

The announced expansion of the five-nation Brics club of emerging economies was described as "historic" by Chinese President Xi Jinping, but it is still not clear how far the countries' common interests stretch.

The growth of Brics "will... further strengthen the force for world peace and development" the president said while addressing the leaders gathered at a conference centre in South Africa's commercial hub, Johannesburg.

The Brics countries - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - are often seen as a counterweight to the Western-led world.

The six new countries - Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - are set to join in January.

China was the state pushing hardest for group expansion as a way to counter Western dominance.

Steve Tsang, director of London's Soas China Institute, says though the Brics members do not have much in common on the surface, President Xi was trying to show his fellow bloc members that they all want a similar future: none of them want to live in a Western-dominated world.

"What the Chinese are offering is an alternative world order for which autocrats can feel safe and secure in their own countries," says Prof Tsang.

"They can find an alternative direction of development without having to accept the conditionalities imposed by the democratic Americans and European powers."

'Building partnership'

The host, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, beamed as he made the announcement about the new joiners.

"We value the interest of other countries in building a partnership with Brics," Mr Ramaphosa said.

He went on to say that more countries will join in the future after the core nations agree on criteria for membership.

But there were divisions this time on how many countries should be allowed to join and how quickly.

A leaders' press conference was scheduled for Wednesday after rumours were swirling about five countries being added to the bloc, but it was cancelled at the last minute.

Then Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva was a no-show to Wednesday's leadership dinner.

We do not know why exactly, but he is very conscious about maintaining ties with his Western allies, and was picky about admittance.

Then late Wednesday night, journalists received an advisory for an early morning press conference, just for it to be delayed again by two hours. These were signs that discussions were under way until the very last minute, as there was a surprise sixth country added.

At the press event, the leaders from each country were then able to give individual reactions to the news.

Russian President Vladmir Putin joined by video link from Russia because of the danger of being arrested over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.

In his remarks, he once again took aim at Western powers, saying their "neo-liberalism" posed a threat to both traditional values in developing countries and to the emergence of a multi-polar world where no one country or bloc dominated.

Without naming names, it was clear who President Putin was speaking about: the United States.

And though the super-power was not at the meeting, the US was talked about, or referenced, quite a bit.

On Tuesday, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan attempted to play down the bloc's expansion plans.

He said that due to Brics countries' divergence of views on critical issues, he did not see it as "evolving into some kind of geo-political rival to the United States or anyone else".

And he may be right.

Evergrande: Shares in the crisis-hit Chinese developer plunge by 80%

Shares in embattled Chinese developer Evergrande have fallen by around 80% as they started trading in Hong Kong for the first time in a year and a half.

The shares have lost more than 99% of their value in the last three years as Beijing cracked down on property firms.

Evergrande is at the centre of a real estate market crisis threatening the world's second largest economy.

On Sunday, the firm posted a 33bn yuan ($4.5bn; £3.6bn) loss for the first six months of the year.

However, that was an improvement on the 66.4bn yuan loss it reported for the same period a year earlier.

The company's "directors have taken a number of measures to improve the liquidity position and financial position of the group," Evergrande said in a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The firm added that its revenue for the first six months of this year had jumped by 44% to 128.2bn yuan from a year earlier. However, its stockpile of cash fell by 6.3% over the same period.

Evergrande shares had been suspended from trading since March last year.

"The key for policymakers at this moment is to prevent financial contagion and limit spillover into the overall financial system," Qian Wang, chief Asia Pacific economist at investment firm Vanguard told the BBC.

"Policymakers will need to provide further liquidity and credit support to the economy and the real estate sector," she added.

China Evergrande files for US bankruptcy protection

Crisis-hit Evergrande offers restructuring plan

Problems in China's property market have added to concerns about the post-pandemic recovery of the world's second largest economy.

Also on Monday, China halved a 0.1% tax on stock trading to "invigorate the capital market and boost investor confidence".

The move came days after the country's central bank cut one of its key interest rates for the second time in three months, in the face of falling exports and weak consumer spending.

Major share indexes in Hong Kong and mainland China were trading higher after the news.

Last month, Evergrande revealed that in 2021 and 2022 it lost a combined total of 581.9bn yuan.

Earlier this month, Country Garden, which is also one of China's biggest property developers, warned that it could see a loss of up to $7.6bn (£6bn) for the first six months of the year.

Rating agency Moody's downgraded the company's rating, citing "heightened liquidity and refinancing risks".

China's real estate industry was rocked when new rules to control the amount of money big real estate firms could borrow were introduced in 2020.

Evergrande, which was once China's top-selling developer, had racked up debts of more than $300bn as it expanded aggressively to become one of the country's biggest companies.

The firm missed a crucial deadline in 2021 as it failed to make interest payments on around $1.2bn of international loans.

Evergrande has been working to renegotiate its agreements with creditors after defaulting on debt repayments.

Earlier this month, the company made a Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing at a court in New York.

Chapter 15 protects the US assets of a foreign company while it works on restructuring its debts.

Evergrande's financial problems have rippled through the country's property industry, with a series of other developers defaulting on their debts and leaving unfinished building projects across the country.-bbc

US faces more interest rate rises to cool inflation

The US Federal Reserve chairman has said the central bank will continue to raise interest rates "if appropriate" as inflation remains "too high".

Jerome Powell told an annual gathering of central bankers that the pace of price rises had fallen from a peak.

However, it remains above the Fed's 2% target.

In a speech to the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, Mr Powell said interest rates could rise further and stay higher for longer.

US inflation hit 3.2% in the year to July while the key interest rate is 5.25% - the highest in 22 years - and comes after 11 consecutive rate rises since early 2022.

Mr Powell said: "Although inflation has moved down from its peak - a welcome development - it remains too high.

"We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective."

Mr Powell said the Fed would "proceed carefully", citing the effects of Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine as one of the factors keeping prices elevated globally.

He also said food and energy prices "remained volatile", despite headline inflation falling from its high of 9.1% last year.

Mr Powell also hinted at further rate rises in the near future whilst the Fed awaited further data.

"Unfortunately, a more resilient than expected economy implies higher rates may or will be needed to cool things enough to reach the 2% inflation goal," said Cary Leahey, economist at Columbia University.

Mr Powell said there was "substantial further ground to cover" before attaining that 2% goal.

He added that the Fed intends "to hold policy at a restrictive level" - comments which were largely expected by market analysts.

"It's a reiteration that the Fed at best is going to go very slowly and cautiously," said Michael Green, chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management.

Mr Powell also pointed to the housing market, where activity had not cooled enough.

"After decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up," he said, adding that "could warrant further tightening of monetary policy".

He also said that before interest rates could begin to come down, the Fed required some softening in the labour market, where wage growth continued as employers dished out higher wages to attract staff in a shrinking workforce.

Higher wages, in theory, add to inflation, prolonging the need for higher interest rates.-bbc

Wilko: New bid emerges for stricken retail chain

A fresh rescue bid for Wilko has emerged as efforts to save the retail chain continue.

Private equity firm M2 Capital has confirmed it has made a £90m bid for the business, and has pledged to retain all employees' jobs for two years.

The bid by M2, first reported by the Guardian, is one of several offers being considered by administrators.

Wilko fell into administration earlier this month, putting 12,500 jobs and 400 stores at risk.

The administrators for Wilko, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), set a deadline of Friday last week for bids for the chain, and are understood to be reviewing offers over the weekend.

M2 managing director Robert Mantse told the BBC that if the firm's rescue bid was accepted, M2 would "guarantee all employees' jobs for two years".

Responding to the news, the national secretary of the GMB union, Andy Prendergast, said that while "the devil is always in the detail... any bid that guarantees jobs has to be prioritised".

Last week, it also emerged that the owner of HMV, Canadian businessman Doug Putman, is also interested in salvaging some of the Wilko business.

It is understood his bid would seek to keep the majority of the chain's stores open.

A spokesperson for PwC said talks were "continuing with a number of parties".

"As administrators we're intent on achieving the best outcome for everyone involved while preserving as many jobs as possible and adhering to our statutory duty to act in the best interests of the creditors as a whole."It would be inappropriate to comment on individual bidders or interested parties at this stage in the process."

Wilko, well known for its affordable everyday items, has been struggling with sharp losses and a cash shortage.

It has also been criticised for falling behind rivals such as B&M, Poundland, The Range and Home Bargains, as the high cost of living has pushed shoppers to seek out bargains.

What has gone wrong at Wilko?

What's next for Wilko and its 12,500 workers?

Wilko had already borrowed £40m from restructuring specialist Hilco, cut jobs, rejigged its leadership team and sold off a distribution centre as it faced a cash squeeze.

Shoppers had also noticed gaps on shelves after Wilko struggled to pay suppliers and at least one credit insurer withdrew trade cover, prompting some companies to pause deliveries.

However, Lisa Wilkinson, the retailer's chairwoman until January this year and the granddaughter of the firm's founder, has said "everybody has thrown everything" at trying to save the business.

In an interview with the Sunday Times, she said: "The team members, the suppliers, the landlords... everybody has thrown their soul and heart at it."

The company has been criticised for paying dividends in recent years, but Ms Wilkinson said the firm would have collapsed even if it had not made these payments.

"Hindsight is a great bedfellow and I like to think we did all the things we should do when we paid dividends," she told the paper. "The board checked that we'd got profits or reserved profits, there was sufficient cash, we went through the right governance, the auditors checked it off."

She added that if they had not paid any dividends "it might have made us survive a couple of months longer. What we have taken out really wouldn't have made a difference".

But the GMB union's Andy Prendergast said: "12,500 workers are facing redundancy - through no fault of their own."

He criticised Ms Wilkinson for her comments, saying she did not "address her workers and face their concerns". He added that her remarks were "in poor taste when workers don't know how they're going to make ends meet in a few weeks' time".

The business was founded in 1930 when JK Wilkinson opened his first store in Leicester. It expanded across the Midlands initially and by the 1990s became one of Britain's fastest-growing retailers.

In 2012, Wilkinson began rebranding its stores as Wilko, after its own-brand products marketed under the Wilko name.-bbc

Heineken sells off Russian beer business for €1

Heineken has finally sold off its Russian business for €1 - or 86p - nearly a year and a half after first pledging to do so.

The Dutch brewer said it will take a loss of €300m on the division, which is being offloaded to Russia's Arnest, which makes aerosol cans.

Many Western firms jettisoned their Russian operations when the country invaded Ukraine last February.

Heineken's Dolf van den Brink said: "It took much longer than we had hoped."

The chief executive and chairman added: "[But] this transaction secures the livelihoods of our employees and allows us to exit the country in a responsible manner."

For €1, Arnest will buy seven breweries and take on 1,800 workers with guarantees to employ them for the next three years.

The manufacture of the Amstel beer brand will be phased out over six months, joining Heineken lager which the company said was removed in 2022.

"Recent developments demonstrate the significant challenges faced by large manufacturing companies in exiting Russia," Mr van den Brink said.

Last month, President Vladimir Putin seized Russian assets owned by Carlsberg and French yoghurt-maker Danone.

Earlier this week, the franchise owner of Domino's Pizza signalled it would shut its Russian shops and put the business into bankruptcy.

DP Eurasia said it would no longer try to sell the operation because of an "increasingly challenging environment".

Russia has been targeted by a number of economic sanctions since its tanks rolled into Ukraine on 24 February 2022.

Many household names decided to close their operations in the immediate aftermath of the invasion. Others, such as McDonald's and Coca-Cola, faced pressure to exit Russia.

There has also been ongoing criticism for the ones that have continued business.

Yale University's School of Management has been tracking which firms have exited and which have stayed. Those that remain include the likes of UK telecoms firm BT Group, and Lacoste, the upmarket French sportswear brand.-bbc

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

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Border Timbers

EGM

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August 18 – (10am)

zIMBABWE

2023 harmonised elections

August 23

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CBZH

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from s believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and d from third parties.

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