Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 November 2023

Fri Dec 1 03:41:54 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 November 2023

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> ZSE commentary

The ZSE All Share Index further increased by 3,375.29 points to close at
186,320.34 points. Trading in the positive: SEED CO LIMITED added $145.2000
to $1113.5000, DELTA CORPORATION LIMITED added $97.0672 to close at
$3276.5359 and DAIRIBORD HOLDINGS LIMITED increased by $75.2039 to 624.2424.
MEIKLES LIMITED added $59.9735 to $1230.9412 and NMB HOLDINGS LIMITED
traded $25.4513 higher to $495.4813.

Trading in the negative: CBZ HOLDINGS LIMITED shed $9.2184 to close at
$2100.0000, ECOCASH HOLDINGS LIMITED lost $3.8575 to close at $125.9727 and
FBC HOLDINGS LIMITED  traded $3.1073 lower to $905.1146. GENERAL BELTINGS
HOLDINGS LIMITED  was $1.3756 down at $20.9744 and AFDIS DISTILLERS LIMITED
decreased by $0.0269 to $2123.0500

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS  

CASS SADDLE AGRICULTURE EXCHANGE TRADED FUND , DATVEST MODIFIED CONSUMER
STAPLES EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS and MORGAN & CO MADE IN ZIM EXCHANGE TRADED
FUND remained unchanged at $7.5000, $9.0000 and $7.5600. OLD MUTUAL TOP 10
ETF shed $0.2113 to $30.8049. MORGAN & CO MULTISECTOR EXCHANGE TRADED FUND
added $7.6233 to $419.6233

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST  

TIGERE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST added $17.9288 to $253.7188.zse

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Zambia

Zambian Inflation Hits 20-Month High as Currency at Record Low

Zambian inflation accelerated to a 20-month high in November as a slump in
the value of the kwacha raised the cost of imported goods like cereals,
vehicles and spare parts.

Consumer prices rose 12.9% from a year earlier, compared with 12.6% in
October, Statistician-General Mulenga Musepa told reporters in Lusaka, the
capital, on Thursday. That was the highest inflation rate since March 2022.
Costs rose 0.9% in the month.

South Africa

South African rand weakens after trade and budget data

(Reuters) - The South African rand weakened against a broadly stronger U.S.
dollar on Thursday after local data showed a rise in producer inflation, a
widening budget deficit and a trade deficit.

At 1510 GMT, the rand traded at 18.8850 against the dollar , about 0.7%
weaker than its previous close.

The dollar last traded around 0.6% stronger against a basket of global
currencies, boosted by month-end demand as investors squared positions for
November.

South Africa's producer inflation (ZAPPIY=ECI) quickened to 5.8% year on
year in October from 5.1% in September, statistics agency data showed, in
line with expectations.

The country's budget balance data for October (ZABUDM=ECI) showed a deficit
of 41.23 billion rand ($2.19 billion), compared to a deficit of 40.57
billion rand in the same month a year earlier.

The South African Revenue Services also published trade balance figures
(ZATBAL=ECI) for October, showing a deficit of 12.66 billion rand.

Investors had expected lacklustre figures, said analysts at ETM Analytics.

"On a trade-weighted basis, the ZAR has had a bad week, reflecting the onset
of more intense load-shedding and the plethora of negative news headlines,
mostly related to dysfunctional SOEs (state-owned enterprises)," ETM said in
a research note.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker, with the yield up
6.5 basis points at 9.980%.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index (.JTOPI) ended the day
about 0.5% higher.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

US dollar gains but set for worst monthly loss in a year, euro falls

(Reuters) - The dollar gained on Thursday as investors took profits on bets
the currency would weaken further and shrugged off data showing signs the
U.S. economy is slowing.

Thursday's economic data suggested that the Federal Reserve is likely done
raising interest rates and may start easing by the middle of next year,
typically a dollar-negative factor.

Euro weakness after a soft euro zone inflation report also partly helped
boost the greenback, analysts said.

The dollar index, which measures its value against six major currencies,
rose 0.6% to 103.38 and was on track to post its best daily gain in more
than a month. On a monthly basis, the dollar has posted a 3% loss, on pace
for its worst monthly showing in a year.

Some analysts said the dollar may have benefited from month-end demand, as
investors squared up positions for November, a period that featured a sharp
sell-off in the U.S. currency with the market pricing in rate cuts next
year.

Others, however, expected a dollar sell-off at month-end with stocks' sharp
gains for November. There were sell dollar signals at some of the biggest
U.S. banks, analysts said.

"We were expecting dollar selling at month-end given how much U.S. equities
rallied. That typically means foreign asset managers would have sold dollars
forward," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist, at UBS in New York.

"But it's possible that some of the selling happened earlier in the month.
So maybe there's less dollar selling at month end."

Dollar gains persisted despite reports that showed U.S. inflation continued
to moderate in October and jobless claims rose in the latest week suggesting
a slowing labor market.

Inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price
index was unchanged in October after climbing 0.4% in September. In the 12
months through October, the PCE price index increased 3.0%. That was the
smallest year-on-year gain since March 2021 and followed a 3.4% advance in
September.

Meanwhile, initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to
a seasonally-adjusted 218,000 for the week ended Nov. 25. Economists had
forecast 226,000 claims.

In other currencies, the euro fell after euro zone inflation eased by more
than forecast this month, fuelling bets of early European Central Bank rate
cuts.

Consumer price growth in the 20 countries that share the euro currency
dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations
for a fall to 2.7%.

The euro last changed hands at $1.0889 against the dollar, down 0.7% . It is
still poised to show a monthly gain of 3%, the largest since November 2022.

Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.7% to 148.20 yen . For November, the
greenback was down 2.3%, on pace for its largest monthly fall since December
last year.

"The broader picture is that the dollar has weakened quite substantially in
November. It's still probably a two-way risk from here in terms of the Fed
December meeting," Serebriakov of UBS said.

"The U.S. data hasn't slowed significantly. Inflation has but activity data
remains relatively resilient," he added.

U.S. rate futures have priced in about a 47% chance of a rate cut at the
March 19-20, 2024 meeting, rising to about 78% probability at the April
30-May 1 meeting, the CME FedWatch Tool showed on Thursday. Overall, the
rates market sees roughly 100 basis points (bps) of cuts by the end of 2024,
according to LSEG data.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 4:30PM (2130 GMT)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold heads for second straight monthly rise on Fed pause bets

(Reuters) - Gold slipped on Thursday but remained on track for a second
straight monthly gain as expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon cut
interest rates enhanced the appeal of non-yielding bullion.

Spot gold slipped 0.4% to $2,036.47 per ounce by 2:40 p.m. ET (1940 GMT)
after hitting a near seven-month peak in the previous session. Prices have
gained 2.7% so far this month.

U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2,057.2.

Contributing to gold's slight dip, the dollar index (.DXY) rose for the day.
But the currency was headed for its worst month in a year, while 10-year
Treasury yields hit a two-and-a-half month low.

"Gold might be a little tired here but it's had a very nice run. The
pullback (in prices) should be limited to $2,015-$2,020 and no concerns will
be felt unless we fall back below $2000," Tai Wong, a New York-based
independent metals trader.

Traders have advanced bets for a rate cut from an 80% chance in May to a
one-in-two chance in March, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

"We're expecting gold prices to break into new highs in the first half of
2024 as we approach the Fed pivot and (with) the economy likely to slow,"
said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.

Traders took stock of data showing U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in
October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest since early
2021. Jobless claims rose slightly.

Focus will be on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

J.P. Morgan in its 2024 commodities outlook highlighted that across
commodities the only structural bullish call they held was on gold and
silver.

Silver rose 0.9% to $25.22 per ounce and was set for its second straight
monthly gain.

Platinum was down 0.3% at $929.09. Palladium dipped 1.4% to $1,013.15.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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