Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 28 December 2023

Fri Dec 29 05:54:49 CAT 2023

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 28 December 2023

ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 

The ZSE continued to advance in the penultimate session of the year as the
primary All Share Index advanced 1.38% to 203,036.28pts. The Blue-Chip Index
surged 1.34% to 85,544.17pts anchored by gains in Ecocash, Econet, Meikles
and Delta while, the Mid Cap Index was up 1.44% to close pegged at
911,193.42pts. On the contrary the Agriculture Index faltered 0.69% to close
at 623.06pts. Sugar processor Star Africa headlined the top gainers of the
day as it charged 14.48% to $6.9833 while, Ecocash trailed behind on a 6.86%
jump to close at a VWAP of $164.5182. Telecommunications group Econet inched
up 4.56% to end the day trading at $750.2575 while, Meikles added 3.91% to
settle at $1,246.9701. Beverages giant Delta fastened the gainers list of
the day as it went up 2.32% to close at $3,282.7691 despite having reached a
high of $3,500.000 in the session. Trading in the negative territory was
seed technology group SeedCo Limited that retreated 4.99% to $962.7382. Also
in the laggards category were the duo of FMP and Zimre Holdings that lost
negligible 0.0043% and 0.0014% respectively to see the former settle at
$321.9702 and the latter at $184.4146.

Market volumes stood at 14.46m shares, up 434.89% having gotten a boost from
the Ok Zimbabwe block of 5.52m shares which represented 59.72% of the volume
traded. Other notable volume leaders in the session were Econet and First
Mutual Properties that contributed a combined 27.7% of the aggregate.
Turnover drivers of the day were Econet, Ok Zimbabwe, Delta and CBZ with
respective contributions of 30.75%, 28.12% 18.34% and 13.59% apiece. Value
traded jumped 196.13% to see $5.72bn exchange hands in the session. Datvest
MCS and Cass Saddle ETF inched up 6.13% and 3.38% to settle at $8.9025 and
$5.8100 respectively. The Old Mutual Top 10 was 0.03% up while, the Morgan &
Co MS ETF gained 1.53% in the session. In the REIT category the Tigere REIT
continued to be more active as 5.72m units worth $1.97bn exchange hands. The
aforementioned fund was up by 1.08% to $344.9873 while, Revitus had no
trades in the session.

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African Rand coins are seen in this illustration picture

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand slipped in thin trading on Thursday with no
market-moving news expected locally ahead of several economic data releases
on Friday.

At 1002 GMT, the rand traded at 18.5550 against the dollar , over 0.8% lower
than its previous close.

"Volumes remain low and liquidity is very thin," said Andre Cilliers,
currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

On the last trading day of the year, South African investors will turn their
focus towards monthly money supply, budget and trade balance figures for
clues on the health of the economy.

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI) and the broader all-share (.JALSH)
indices were up about 0.1%.

The dollar index languished near a five-month low and was last down 0.21% at
100.68 against a basket of currencies as markets continued to bet on an
interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as March.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was marginally stronger, with
the yield down 1 basis point at 9.725%.

Nigeria

Naira falls to N1,043/$ on I&E market

The naira fell to a low of N1043.09/$ on the official Investor and Exporter
foreign exchange window on Thursday.

This represents a 19.54 per cent decline from the N872.59/$ it closed on
Wednesday according to data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange.

This is the second time that the naira has fallen below N1,000 on the
official FX window since the Central Bank of Nigeria removed the rate cap on
the national currency.

On December 8, the naira fell to an all-time low of N1,099.05/$ on the I&E
window.

On Thursday (December 28, 2023), it fell for the second time below N1,000 to
N1043.09/$.

On Thursday, the official market began trading at N920/$, hitting a high of
N1235.65/$ and a low of N720/$ before closing trading at N1043.09/$.

Total forex turnover was $83.63m for the day, a 34.63 per cent decline from
the $127.93m it was the previous day.

Since the apex bank declared that it was reintroducing the willing buyer and
willing seller model for the naira, the naira has continued to fall.

In June, the CBN said, "The Central Bank of Nigeria wishes to inform all
authorised dealers and the general public of the following immediate changes
to operations in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market: Abolishment of
segmentation. All segments are now collapsed into the Investors and
Exporters window. Applications for medicals, school fees, BTA/PTA, and SMEs
would continue to be processed through deposit money banks.

"Re-introduction of the 'Willing Buyer, Willing Seller' model at the I&E
Window. Operations in this window shall be guided by the extant circular on
the establishment of the window, dated 21 April 2017 and referenced
FMD/DlR/ClR/GEN/08/007. All eligible transactions are permitted to access
foreign exchange at this window."

The bank has made moves to improve liquidity including paying FX backlogs.
At the recent Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria 58th Annual Bankers'
Dinner and Grand Finale of the Institute's 60th Anniversary, the apex bank's
governor, Olayemi Cardoso, said, "We have already witnessed improvements in
FX market liquidity in recent weeks, as the market responded positively to
tranche payments which have been made to 31 banks to clear the backlog of FX
forward obligations."

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar snaps two-year winning streak on 2024 rate cut bets

The dollar looked set on Friday to end 2023 with a loss, reversing two
straight years of gains, dragged by market expectations that the U.S.
Federal Reserve could begin easing rates as early as next March.

The greenback stayed broadly on the back foot on the last trading day of the
year, with currency moves subdued amid a holiday lull leading up to the New
Year.

Since the Fed launched its aggressive rate-hike cycle in early 2022,
expectations of how far U.S. rates would have to rise have been a huge
driver of the dollar for the most part of the past two years.

But as economic data subsequently pointed to signs that inflation in the
United States is cooling, investors turned their focus to how soon the Fed
could begin cutting rates - expectations which gathered steam after a dovish
tilt at the central bank's December policy meeting.

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback fell 0.02% to 101.18,
languishing near a five-month trough of 100.61 hit in the previous session.

The dollar index

was on track to lose more than 2% for the month and roughly 2.2% for the
year.

"The dollar is likely to come under pressure in 2024 as (the) Fed formally
signals a dovish pivot, but we need to see how growth outside the U.S.
transcends," said Charu Chanana, head of FX strategy at Saxo.

A weakening dollar meanwhile brought relief to other currencies, with the
euro

last at $1.1076, hovering near a five-month peak, and on track to rise more
than 3% for the year.

Sterling

was similarly on track for a 5% yearly gain, its best performance since
2017. The British pound was last 0.04% higher at $1.2740.

While policymakers at the European Central Bank and the Bank of England did
not signal any imminent rate cuts at their policy meetings this month,
traders continue to bet that a Fed pivot and the prospect of lower U.S.
rates next year would give room for other major central banks to follow
suit.

"We believe central banks in the advanced economies are on pace to pull
forward the timing of pivoting to interest rate cuts," said economists at
Wells Fargo in their 2024 outlook.

"As far as the outlook for G10 central banks, the 'higher for longer' stance
that many institutions adopted in 2023 is becoming less of a priority."

All in, the prospect that 2024 could be a year where major central banks
begin easing rates have sparked a risk-on rally, sending global equities
higher.

Global bonds have likewise marched higher, after being battered for the most
part of the past two years as interest rates rise. The benchmark 10-year
U.S. Treasury yield

was last at 3.8387%, having fallen nearly 120 basis points from its 16-year
high of 5.021% hit in October.

Yields fall when bond prices rise.

The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars were on track to gain
3.5% and 3% for the month, respectively, though were largely unchanged for
the year.

The Aussie

, which was last 0.14% higher at $0.68385, looked set to eke out a marginal
yearly gain of 0.3%. The kiwi

was on track to lose 0.2% for the year.

Both currencies, often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan, have
come under pressure as a result of an underwhelming post-Covid-19 economic
recovery in China.

The yen

was meanwhile set to fall more than 7% in 2023, extending into a third
straight year of losses, as the Japanese currency continues to come under
pressure as a result of the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, ultra-loose monetary
policy stance.

While market expectations are for the BOJ to exit negative interest rates in
2024, the central bank continues to stand by its dovish stance and has
provided little clues on if, and how, such a scenario could play out.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he was in no rush to unwind ultra-loose
monetary policy as the risk of inflation running well above 2% and
accelerating was small, public broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday.

A summary of opinions from the BOJ's policy meeting this month showed some
policymakers called for deeper debate on a future exit from ultra-loose
monetary policy as the economy makes progress toward achieving the bank's
price target.

"The outlook for Japan is encouraging going into 2024, with expectations of
robust economic growth and improving inflation that shows signs of being
sustainable," said Aadish Kumar, international economist at T. Rowe Price,
citing a weak currency and accommodative policy stance as "key supports" to
the view.

"Any potential moves to tighten policy via a hike in interest rates
represent a key risk to the outlook. Given the BOJ will not want to risk
undoing all the good work achieved to date, we believe it will remain dovish
in its communication and keep policy accommodative."

The yen was last steady at 141.45 per dollar.

In China, the onshore yuan

was headed for a yearly loss of nearly 3%, pressured by a faltering
post-Covid recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

The country's central bank said on Thursday it would step up macroeconomic
policy adjustments to support the economy and promote a rebound in prices,
amid signs of rising deflationary pressures.

The yuan last stood at 7.0925 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart was
last at 7.0898 per dollar.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals

(Reuters) - Gold prices eased on Thursday, after hitting a more than
three-week high earlier, as an uptick in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields
undermined the support from expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve
early next year.

Spot gold lost 0.4% to $2,069.79 per ounce by 2:20 p.m. ET (1920 GMT), after
rising as high as $2,088.29 earlier, the most since Dec. 4, when bullion hit
its all-time peak.

U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5% at $2,083.50.

"There's not a lot of trading volume right now in any of the markets so that
usually causes smaller moves, especially when we're approaching a big number
like an all-time high," said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at
EverBank.

"The reason prices have gone back near the horizon and rallied again towards
the end of the year is all about interest rate expectations and a weaker
dollar."

The dollar index rose 0.3% after hitting a five-month low. Benchmark 10-year
bond yields also rose, coming off their lowest levels since July.

U.S. jobless claims rose last week, indicating the labor market continues to
cool in the year's fourth quarter.

Investors are betting on an 88% chance of the Fed cutting rates in March,
according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion.

"We look for higher gold prices over the next 12 months, with weaker
economic data and lower inflation in the U.S. forcing the Fed to cut rates,"
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

On the physical front, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by about
37% in November from the previous month.

Spot silver fell 1% to $24.01 per ounce.

Platinum gained 0.6% to $1,002.50, after hitting its highest since June,
while palladium dropped 2% to $1,129.70. Both autocatalytic metals were on
track to log yearly declines.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell:
+263 77 344 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 201886 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 43741 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130905 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20231229/4a7a5881/attachment-0001.obj>