Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 09 February 2023

[Bulls n Bears]

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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 09 February 2023 

 


 

 


 <https://wwww.nedbank.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


 

ü  Disney to cut 7,000 jobs as streaming numbers fall for first time

ü  Pakistan seeks IMF bailout to stave off economic collapse

ü  Google's Bard AI bot mistake wipes $100bn off shares

ü  Twitter outage sees users told they are over daily tweet limit

ü  Netflix extends crackdown on password sharing to more countries

ü  Biden economic agenda confronts a divided Congress

ü  NFT images of furry Birkin bags violated trademark rules

ü  Australia blocks coal mine to protect Great Barrier Reef

ü  US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions

ü  Cost of living: Big banks' bosses defend savings rates and branch closures

ü  Kenya Imports Wheat From Russia Amid High Prices

ü  Nigeria: Extend Old Naira Notes Deadline, 36 Governors Beg Buhari

ü  Nigeria: How Accurate Are Kwankwaso's Claims About Nigeria's Oil Production?

ü  Nigeria: Ways and Means - IMF Urges CBN to Stop Full Financing of Govt's Fiscal Deficits

ü  Nigeria: Govt Blames Profiteers for Hike in Fuel Price

 


 <mailto:agricbusiness at cbz.co.zw> 

 


 

 

Disney to cut 7,000 jobs as streaming numbers fall for first time

Disney chief executive Bob Iger says he is cutting 7,000 jobs in a major shake-up of the entertainment giant.

 

The layoffs are part of a plan to save $5.5bn and make its Disney+ streaming service profitable, which reported its first fall in subscribers since it launched the service in 2019.

 

Mr Iger said he did "not make this decision lightly".

 

He announced the changes alongside ts latest sales figures, his first since he returned to Disney in November.

 

Commenting on the job cuts, Mr Iger said: "I have enormous respect and appreciation for the talent and dedication of our employees worldwide, and I'm mindful of the personal impact of these changes."

 

He said the changes would "better position us to weather future disruption and global economic challenges".

 

The job cuts amount to around 3.6% of Disney's workforce around the world.

 

Meanwhile, Disney reported an 8% rise in sales to $23.5bn (£19.4bn) between October and December last year. Profit also rose, up by 11% to $1.3bn.

 

However, Disney+ reported a $1.5bn loss and its subscribers fell by around 2.4m to 161.8m.

 

The plan will see the company restructure into three segments - entertainment which will include film, TV and streaming; sports-focused ESPN and Disney parks, experiences and products.

 

"This reorganisation will result in a more cost-effective, coordinated approach to our operations," Mr Iger told analysts on a conference call.

 

The company's streaming service remained its top priority, he added.

 

Disney share price rose by more than 5% in extended trade after the announcement.

 

Freddy Colquhoun, investment director at JM Finn, told the BBC: "Disney has been in quite a bit of trouble over the last year or so and in particular with trying to make its streaming business profitable."

 

But he said the results "were actually really reassuring" and beat expectations.

 

Disney's changes address some of the criticisms raised in recent months by billionaire activist investor Nelson Peltz, who criticised the company for overspending on its streaming business.

 

In response to the announcement Mr Peltz's Trian Group said: "We are pleased that Disney is listening."

 

Mr Iger made a shock return as Disney's chief executive, less than a year after he retired from the firm.

 

He was brought back to steer the company through turbulent times after its share price plummeted and Disney+ continued to make a loss.

 

Mr Iger, who had previously headed Disney for 15 years, replaced Bob Chapek, who took over as chief executive in February 2020.

 

Mr Chapek was ousted after Disney's streaming business posted a $1.5bn quarterly loss.

 

Less than 24 hours after his return to Disney, Mr Iger said he was planning a major shake-up of the business.

 

At the time he said he had tasked a group of executives with designing "a new structure that puts more decision-making back in the hands of our creative teams and rationalises costs".-bbc

 

 

 

 

Pakistan seeks IMF bailout to stave off economic collapse

Pakistan is holding last-ditch talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure help to stem a deepening economic crisis that has all but emptied its foreign exchange reserves.

 

It has enough dollars to cover less than a month of imports at normal levels and is struggling to service sky-high levels of foreign debt.

 

An IMF team is due to leave the country on Thursday after 10 days of talks with the government aimed at unlocking vital international funds.

 

In January annual inflation soared to over 27%, the highest its been in Pakistan since 1975, and there are mounting fears for the economy in a pivotal election year.

 

This week the rupee sank to a historic low of 275 to the dollar, down from 175 a year ago, making it more expensive for Pakistan to buy and pay for things.

 

The lack of foreign currency is one of the most pressing of Pakistan's problems.

 

Factories like Jubilee Textiles in Faisalabad, the industrial heartland of Pakistan, were shut recently - not by the frequent power cuts that have dogged Pakistan for years, but because they couldn't get hold of dollars to pay for the goods they need.

 

A shuttered factory

Image caption,

Many factories like this one have been idle across Pakistan in recent weeks

"If we can't import, how can we manufacture? We've already made a loss," its manager Fahim told the BBC, adding that all its 300 workers had been sent home.

 

Jubilee's printing machines have only just restarted after shutting last month. Piles of white cotton sheets sat in iron tubs, covered by a light coat of brick dust, when the BBC visited, with the only sound the drip, drip of an industrial washer.

 

Walking through the network of frozen machines, Fahim said the factory had run out of the dyes they import from China, not because they weren't available, but because they say their bank wouldn't clear the dollars to pay for them for weeks.

 

According to analysts, the government had been holding the bank's exchange rate artificially high behind the scenes which was contributing to the lack of dollars in the system. At the end of last month, they allowed it to drop, which could help some businesses, but also push prices up.

 

An aerial view of the commercial district of Pakistan's port city of Karachi on January 27, 2023.

 

Imports have been stacking up in ports, including here in Karachi

Businesses and industries across Pakistan said they have had to slow or stop work while they also wait for goods they have imported that are currently stacking up in ports.

 

In late January, a government minister told the BBC that there were more than 8,000 containers piled up in Karachi's two ports, containing goods from medicine to food. Some of that has started to clear, according to local media reports, but much is still stuck.

 

A perfect storm of problems

Pakistan, like many countries, is suffering as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, following which global fuel prices have soared. Pakistan relies heavily on imported fossil fuels and importing food has also become more expensive.

 

If the rupee depreciates, fuel costs more, with knock-on effects for goods that are transported or manufactured. The government recently increased fuel prices by over 13% but says it's not planning any more.

 

Add to this the cost of last year's floods, which the UN says caused damage of more than $16bn. Huge areas of Pakistan were submerged, destroying farmland and disrupting its ability to produce food. Basics like wheat and onions have skyrocketed in price.

 

Fuel crisis forces Pakistan malls to close early

Sri Lanka crisis is a warning to other Asian nations

All this comes in an uncertain and febrile political climate - an election is due by the end of the year.

 

As for bailouts, Pakistan is no stranger to them. The country - which has a massive military budget and years of debt-driven infrastructure spending - has long failed to wean itself off populist subsides and stabilise its economy.

 

"If you see the history of Pakistan, we have a cycle of balance of payments problems," says Dr Sajid Amin Javed, deputy executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad.

 

"We go to the IMF. We implement very strict reforms, for two or three years, then it's an election year and unfortunately, we reverse them all."

 

Subsidies have long been used to woo voters in Pakistan, he says.

 

Is Pakistan the next Sri Lanka?

Imran Khan, who was ousted as Pakistan's prime minister last April, came to power in 2018 promising to fix the economy. At the time he had vowed not to seek help from the IMF, but inflation soared and the rupee dropped.

 

He ended up negotiating a $6bn rescue bailout with the IMF to address the balance of payments crisis.

 

The current negotiations are over the next $1.1bn tranche of this. It was originally due to be made in November, but talks have repeatedly stalled.

 

The government and Mr Khan's party, the PTI, have had their own disagreements with the IMF in the past, but with the country's foreign reserves now so low both agree Pakistan needs to come to an agreement to secure the funds.

 

The negotiations have been difficult, according to Pakistan; last week Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the organisation had given Pakistan's finance minister a tough time.

 

In an interview last month Mr Khan warned that Pakistan could follow in the footsteps of Sri Lanka, which ran out of money to buy food, fuel and other essentials last year, causing a popular uprising that unseated the president.

 

The comparison doesn't hold for Dr Javed.

 

"The size of the economy is absolutely different, number one," he says. "Pakistan has always had good support from friendly countries, such as China, UAE, Saudi Arabia - and in turbulent times that's come in the form of rollovers, refinancing, friendly deposits and delayed oil repayments."

 

However, he does have his concerns.

 

"The common ground that we do have is political instability and our ability to navigate that will be crucial in coming out of this crisis."

 

The current government and Mr Khan's party, the PTI, have no love lost between them. Mr Khan, who still has considerable support, has been holding rallies and marches, claiming his removal from office under the constitution was unfair.

 

Pakistan's new government says it won't accede to his demands for an early election and argues it's putting the economy first.

 

"For one person's personal interest we cannot put the whole country into limbo," planning minister Ahsan Iqbal told the BBC.

 

"Calling an election at this time means there will be four to five months of uncertainty."

 

That's one thing both sides agree on: economic stability is difficult when there is no political certainty, and while an election looms that is unlikely to happen.

 

The IMF holds the key - for now

So, could the situation get better for Pakistan? Put simply, the country needs more dollars and it needs them soon, not least to keep the lights on.

 

As the weather gets warmer and people use more electricity to power fans and air conditioning, the need for energy will go up putting more strain on the system - and more pressure on Pakistan's almost exhausted foreign reserves.

 

The question is, how long would a bailout deal buy the country this time?

 

"If the IMF programme resumption is successful, that also unlocks billions of dollars promised by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Then the risk of a larger balance of payments problem will be pushed down the road," says Khurram Hussain, a business and economic journalist in Pakistan.

 

But he adds: "In the long term the programme will have little to no impact. Pakistan faces a crushing debt burden. Without comprehensive debt restructuring, the country will keep landing up back at this spot, at the edge of a balance of payments crisis."

 

Trying to get a deal could mean painful political promises, potentially including dropping subsidies on energy.

 

Mr Hussain says coming to a deal with the IMF will help the economy and the state, but at the expense of normal people. However, he thinks that the biggest risk is that the government comes to an agreement with the IMF, starts implementing the plans, then changes its mind.

 

"If the government gets cold feet and asks to halt the process of adjustment and tries to renegotiate again, Pakistan will swivel back firmly into where it is facing a balance of payments crisis."-bbc

 

 

 

Google's Bard AI bot mistake wipes $100bn off shares

Google is searching for ways to reassure people that it is still out in front in the race for the best artificial intelligence technology.

 

And so far, the internet giant seems to be coming up with the wrong answer.

 

An advert designed to show off its new AI bot, showed it answering a query incorrectly.

 

Shares in parent company Alphabet sank more than 7% on Wednesday, knocking $100bn (£82bn) off the firm's market value.

 

In the promotion for the bot, known as Bard, which was released on Twitter on Monday, the bot was asked about what to tell a nine-year-old about discoveries from the James Webb Space Telescope.

 

It offered the response that the telescope was the first to take pictures of a planet outside the earth's solar system, when in fact that milestone was claimed by the European Very Large Telescope in 2004 - a mistake quickly noted by astronomers on Twitter.

 

"Why didn't you factcheck this example before sharing it?" Chris Harrison, a fellow at Newcastle University, replied to the tweet.

 

Investors were also underwhelmed by a presentation the company gave about its plans to deploy artificial intelligence in its products.

 

Google has been under pressure since late last year, when Microsoft-backed OpenAI unveiled new ChatGPT software. It quickly became a viral hit for its facility in passing business school exams, composing song lyrics and answering other questions.

 

Microsoft this week said a new version of its Bing search engine, which has lagged Google for years, would use the ChatGPT technology in an even more advanced form.

 

Though investors have embraced the push for artificial intelligence, sceptics have warned rushing out the technology raises risks of errors or otherwise skewed results, as well as issues of plagiarism.

 

A Google spokesperson said the error highlighted "the importance of a rigorous testing process, something that we're kicking off this week with our Trusted Tester programme".

 

"We'll combine external feedback with our own internal testing to make sure Bard's responses meet a high bar for quality, safety and roundedness in real-world information," they said.

 

Last month, Google's parent company Alphabet cut 12,000 jobs - about 6% of its workforce worldwide - amid layoffs at a number of leading tech giants.-bbc

 

 

 

Twitter outage sees users told they are over daily tweet limit

Some Twitter users were unable to tweet on Wednesday after the website experienced technical problems.

 

Account holders received a message saying: "You are over the daily limit for sending Tweets."

 

The outage-tracking website DownDetector reported the glitch at just before 22:00 GMT.

 

Elon Musk has slashed Twitter's workforce over the last few months since he acquired the platform last October for $44bn (£36.5bn).

 

Last month the Tesla and SpaceX boss said Twitter had about 2,300 employees - down from around 8,000 when he took over.

 

For months experts have been warning that such deep cuts could cause technical issues, though it is not yet clear if the reduced headcount was to blame for Wednesday's outage.

 

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'Elon Musk has made me embarrassed to drive my Tesla'

It appears part of the outage was soon fixed, with many users reporting they could tweet.

 

Some reported being notified by Twitter that they were over the 2,400-tweet-per-day limit, even if they had not posted on Wednesday.

 

Account holders had also reported problems with Twitter messages. Several users said they could not access TweetDeck - a dashboard that can be used with Twitter.

 

It's not yet clear how many people were affected.

 

"Twitter may not be working as expected for some of you. Sorry for the trouble. We're aware and working to get this fixed," Twitter said.

 

In recent weeks many users have complained of bugs while using Twitter - including some claiming they could increase the reach of tweets if they locked their accounts.

 

Tech news website The Information reported that Mr Musk had told Twitter employees to pause on new feature development "in favour of maximising system stability and robustness, especially with the Super Bowl coming up".

 

Twitter also announced that users of its $8 a month subscription service in the US can now post longer tweets.

 

Twitter Blue subscribers can now post up to 4,000 characters, far more than the 280-character limit imposed on non-paying users.

 

"But don't worry, Twitter is still Twitter," the company said in a lengthy tweet announcing the feature.

 

Meanwhile, DownDetector also reported an outage at YouTube, which at its peak affected a reported 65,000 users.

 

In a tweet, YouTube - which is owned by Google's parent company Alphabet - said it was investigating reports that the website's homepage "is down for some of you".

 

"We're looking into it... really sorry if you're experiencing this," they wrote.-bbc

 

 

 

Netflix extends crackdown on password sharing to more countries

Netflix is introducing limits on password sharing in four more countries: Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain.

 

Customers in those countries are being asked to pay an extra fee if they want friends and family who don't live with them to share their subscription.

 

The move follows a crackdown on password sharing in South America.

 

The media giant estimates 100 million people around the world use shared accounts.

 

The hit to revenues from the shared accounts was affecting Netflix's ability to invest in new programming content, the firm said. It has said it is planning to extend the new approach to more countries in coming months.

 

"Over the last year, we've been exploring different approaches to address this issue in Latin America, and we're now ready to roll them out more broadly in the coming months, starting today in Canada, New Zealand, Portugal and Spain," it said in a blog post on Wednesday.

 

Up until now it has been easy for subscribers to share their login and password with friends outside their home.

 

Back in 2017 Netflix even appeared to be sanctioning the practice when it tweeted "Love is sharing a password".

 

But growing competition in the streaming market, and customers cutting back on subscriptions due to the rising cost of living, have prompted Netflix to focus on shoring up its revenues.

 

The firm said that allowing accounts to be used by several people within households had "created confusion" about when and how people could share.

 

It said members in Canada, New Zealand, Spain and Portugal would now be asked to set up a "primary location" for their account and manage who has access to it.

 

Members would still be able to watch Netflix when they travelled, both on personal devices and logging in in other places, for example in a hotel, it said.

 

For CAD$7.99 (£4.92) Canadian subscribers can add up an extra member as a "sub account" the blog said, with a maximum of two sub accounts per subscription.

 

The fee would be similar in New Zealand at NZ$7.99 (£4.17). There would be a price difference for sub accounts between Portugal at €3.99 (£3.54) and Spain at €5.99 (£5.32).

 

Netflix chief operating officer Gregory Peters last month acknowledged that the changes would not be "universally popular" and warned investors to expect some cancellations.

 

He said the firm expected to eventually make up those losses.

 

In the first half of 2022, Netflix saw its subscriber numbers fall sharply. It cut hundreds of jobs and put up prices to cover rising costs.

 

In November, it introduced a cheaper ad-supported option in 12 countries, including most of Europe, the UK and the US.-bbc

 

 

 

 

Biden economic agenda confronts a divided Congress

President Joe Biden may not be out of ideas for how to deliver on his economic promises. But he does seem to be out of time.

 

In his State of the Union address, the president urged lawmakers to "finish the job" - calling for a new tax on the super wealthy, a crackdown on Big Tech companies, and other financial support for families, including family and medical leave.

 

For those following the issues, it was an oblique way of acknowledging that many of those proposals had already been presented in the last two years and failed to advance, despite Democrats having control of both houses of Congress.

 

With Republicans now holding a majority in the House of Representatives, the chances of them becoming reality have only lessened.

 

"A lot of them were not serious legislative proposals - they were campaign points and politics," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the American Action Forum, a centre-right think tank in Washington. Of the tax increases, he added: "None of those things have a chance of turning into law."

 

Mr Biden does have some big victories from the last two years to champion - $550bn (£455bn) that the federal government will steer to roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects; $280bn for investments in high tech manufacturing and other research and development; and another nearly $400m for green energy technologies.

 

But despite those wins, a recent poll by the Washington Post-ABC News found that Republicans and independents overwhelmingly viewed the president as having accomplished little during his time in office. Even 22% of Democrats shared that view.

 

Analysts said it will be hard to change that perception in the next two years.

 

Business groups are already pushing back hard against some of the regulatory changes Mr Biden has proposed, such as curbing so-called "junk" fees that banks, airlines and others charge customers, or barring so-called non-compete agreements, which limit the ability of employees to go work for rival businesses.

 

"Overregulation will stop progress in its tracks," US Chamber of Commerce president Suzanne Clarke wrote on Twitter in response to the president's speech.

 

Even on issues where there might seem to be appetite for action in both parties, few are expecting results.

 

The president's call for action on Big Tech drew applause from both Republicans and Democrats, for example, but talk in Congress on new rules dating back to the Trump administration has yet to produce change.

 

'Liar' heckle and other Biden speech takeaways

The clues that suggest Joe Biden will run in 2024

Last year, Republicans and Democrats also tried to negotiate a deal that would grant tax changes favoured by business in exchange for expanding the child tax credit, a tax break for families that was credited with lifting millions of children out of poverty when Congress increased it as part of its pandemic relief programme.

 

Those talks also failed.

 

"The president doesn't get to pass legislation on his own," said Elaine Maag, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, a Washington think tank focused on issues of equity and opportunity.

 

"I'm confident that in the Senate there are more than 50 votes to pass an expanded tax credit. I'm much less confident that there are enough votes in the House for a big piece of legislation like that right now."

 

Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, says people should not be so quick to write off the president's chances, noting that with such a narrowly divided Congress getting some of his proposals through would only take a few votes.

 

Republicans have become a more populist party than they were just a few years ago, she added.

 

"This is not your grandfather's Republican Party where they were all businessmen or Wall Streeters, so you can see a few votes getting picked off," she said.

 

But Mr Holtz-Eakin said the White House was scaling back its economic message from the big ambitions that Mr Biden ran on for president.

 

"I think there's a realisation that the Build Back Better agenda was too big. It never really did add up and the American people don't support it," said Mr Holtz-Eakin, pointing to the president's approval ratings, which continue to hover in the low 40%.

 

Indeed Mr Biden mentioned some of the biggest issues for the progressive Democratic base - such as family and medical leave and student debt relief - only in passing. Raising the minimum wage did not get a nod at all.

 

Dean Baker, senior economist at the progressive Center for Economic and Policy Research, said Mr Biden is treading a careful path of celebrating his accomplishments without drawing too much attention to the defeats.

 

"He knows he's not going to get much through this Congress and it doesn't make sense to throw all these things out there that they're just going to ignore," he said. "I think he's just being realistic."-bbc

 

 

 

NFT  of furry Birkin bags violated trademark rules

An artist who made and sold digital  of Birkin handbags covered in fur violated trademark rights, a Manhattan court has concluded.

 

The fashion giant Hermes, which owns the luxury brand, sued Mason Rothschild after he created non-fungible tokens, or NFTs, based on the famous bags.

 

Hermes said consumers would believe the products were officially associated with the brand.

 

The landmark case sets a precedent for other trials around NFTs.

 

The jury awarded Hermes $133,000 (£110,000) in damages, rejecting Mr Rothschild's argument that his products, which he began selling in 2021, were works of art commenting on the market for luxury goods and should be protected by laws governing free speech.

 

A lawyer representing Mr Rothschild said it was a "terrible day for artists and the First Amendment".

 

There has been a flurry of interest in NFTs over the last few years. The digital tokens are unique products that are verified using blockchain technology. While most sell for around a hundred dollars, they can be worth millions.

 

In the physical world a Birkin leather handbag also commands a high price - tens of thousands of dollars depending on the version.

 

Mr Rothschild produced a series of  of the famous bag calling them "MetaBirkins". One was covered in shaggy green fur. There was a version based on Van Gogh's "Starry Night" painting, and an animation of a foetus growing inside a transparent Birkin handbag - a play on the brand's smaller model of its bag known as the "baby Birkin".

 

The artist claimed his works were in the same vein as Andy Warhol's reproductions of Campbell soup cans.

 

But the jury decided they should be seen as consumer products and were therefore covered by trademark law.

 

Hermes said Mr Rothschild was a "digital speculator" who created his  of the bag as a "get rich quick" scheme. It said over $1m (£828,000) worth of MetaBirkins had been sold since December 2021.

 

The fashion house said it had plans to issue NFTs itself, which were constrained by Mr Rothschild's actions.

 

The court's decision will be closely watched by other brands seeking to clarify trademark rules around NFTs.-bbc

 

 

 

 

 

Australia blocks coal mine to protect Great Barrier Reef

For the first time in history, Australia has blocked the creation of a coal mine under environmental laws.

 

The government on Thursday rejected a proposal for a new mine about 10km (6.2 miles) from the Great Barrier Reef.

 

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said the project posed an unacceptable risk to the World Heritage area, which is already highly vulnerable.

 

The mine's owner, the controversial Australian billionaire Clive Palmer, has not yet responded to the rejection.

 

His firm, Central Queensland Coal, had proposed to build an open-cut mine about 700km north-west of Brisbane, that would produce both thermal and coking coal and operate for about 20 years.

 

Ms Plibersek had last year flagged that the federal government might block the mine. After opening it to public consideration, her department received more than 9,000 submissions in 10 days - the majority calling for the project to be stopped.

 

The Great Barrier Reef - the world's largest coral reef system - has suffered four mass bleachings in the past six years due to rising sea temperatures and its outlook is "very poor", authorities say.

 

Warning follows record Great Barrier Reef coral cover

UN warns key climate threshold slipping from sight

The Queensland state government had last year also recommended their federal counterparts reject the proposal, saying the environmental risks were "significant".

 

Minister Plibersek's department agreed, finding sediment and run off from the open-cut mine was likely to damage the Reef and local water resources.

 

"I've decided that the adverse environmental impacts are simply too great," the minister said in a video statement on Wednesday.

 

While state governments have rejected proposals before, it is the first time a federal Environment Minister has used their powers to do so.

 

Australia's Labor government - elected in May - has been under pressure from some quarters to block any future coal and gas mining projects.

 

The country cannot help to stop catastrophic climate change - or keep global warming below a 1.5C increase this century - if it allows new mines, environmental advocates like the Greens political party say.

 

Australia is a major global supplier of fossil fuels. When exports are factored in, the country accounts for producing 3.6% of the world's emissions, but with only 0.3% of the world's population.

 

While the new government has significantly increased Australia's 2030 emissions reduction target, it has also said it will approve any new fossil fuel projects that make commercial sense.-bbc

 

 

 

 

US-China trade hits record high despite rising tensions

Trade between the US and China hit a record high last year even as their diplomatic relations deteriorated.

 

Imports and exports between the two countries totalled $690.6bn (£572.6bn) in 2022, official figures show.

 

Relations between the countries have hit new lows in recent days after a Chinese balloon travelled across the US. Beijing denies US claims it was used for spying.

 

The world's two biggest economies have also been in a trade war since 2018.

 

The new figures show that US imports from China increased to $536.8bn last year as American shoppers spent more on Chinese-made goods, including toys and mobile phones. In the same period, US exports to China increased to $153.8bn.

 

While some of the increase in trade between the two countries is a result of the rising cost of living, the figures also point to how reliant the US and China still are on each other even after years of trade conflict between them.

 

"I think it's an important indication of the difficulties of actually decoupling," Deborah Elms, the founder of Asian Trade Centre, told the BBC.

 

"Even if governments, firms and consumers wanted to separate, the economics make it difficult to deliver products in a decoupled world at a price that firms and consumers are willing to pay," she added.

 

High-altitude spying marks new low for US-China ties

Biden moves to halt US exports to Huawei - reports

In 2018, the Trump administration started to ramp up trade measures against Beijing.

 

After decades of rising Chinese imports, Mr Trump began imposing tariffs on a total of more than $300bn worth of Chinese goods. China hit back by placing import levies on about $100bn of American goods.

 

Most of those measures remain in place more than two years after Joe Biden became president.

 

This month, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had been due to visit China in what was seen as a thawing of relations between the two country's.

 

America's top diplomat was set to visit Beijing from 5 to 6 February to hold talks on a wide range of issues, including security, Taiwan and Covid-19.

 

However, the trip was abruptly postponed after the discovery of a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that drifted across America.

 

Chinese officials have repeatedly said that the "airship is for civilian use and entered the US due to force majeure - it was completely an accident".

 

In his State of the Union address on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden made no direct mention of the Chinese balloon but said that his administration will always protect its sovereignty.

 

"I am committed to work with China where it can advance American interests and benefit the world. But make no mistake: as we made clear last week, if China's threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country. And we did," he said.-bbc

 

 

 

 

Cost of living: Big banks' bosses defend savings rates and branch closures

Savers have access to a host of competitive savings deals, bank bosses have argued, as they faced criticism over poor rates of interest.

 

The chief executives of four of the biggest banks in the UK were hauled before MPs who questioned the generosity of their savings rates.

 

The UK chief executives of Lloyds, NatWest, HSBC and Barclays said deals had improved as savers shopped around.

 

They also said branch closures were a response to consumers' changing habits.

 

Savers' choice

The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate was at historically low levels for a decade until December 2021, since when it has risen consistently. It is now at 4%, having risen from 0.1%.

 

MPs on the Treasury Committee said their constituents complained that mortgage rates rose more rapidly than the returns offered to savers when the base rate went up.

 

Described as the highest-paid panel which had sat before the committee for some time - collectively earning more than £10m a year - the quartet of bank bosses argued that this debate incorrectly centred on the interest rate offered on easy-access savings accounts, which typically have a return of less than 1%.

 

They argued that regular saver deals offered market-leading rates of interest, and that instant-access products were often a "gateway" to higher interest deals.

 

Matt Hammerstein, from Barclays, Charlie Nunn, from Lloyds Banking Group, Ian Stuart, from HSBC, and Dame Alison Rose, from NatWest, argued that they were also encouraging customers to begin a savings habit.

 

"Only one in four people have £100 of savings in their account," said Dame Alison. "There is a real concern about financial confidence in young people. We have targeted savings for young people's accounts as well."

 

What the rise in interest rates means for you

Millions have less than £100 saved as prices soar

Savings levels built considerably during the pandemic, as consumers' ability to spend was curtailed. The soaring cost of living has since dampened some of this saving.

 

However, the bosses - whose banks control 60% of the market - argued that many people were actively searching for better deals as interest rates rose. Mr Nunn said price comparison websites had become highly developed in this area.

 

While some were shopping around, millions were still low on confidence in making good financial decisions, and so needed good guidance.

 

Graphic showing interest rates rising to 4%

Many households are also facing the prospect of having to pay more on their mortgage repayments in the coming year.

 

Mr Stuart pointed to a new fixed-rate deal, launched by HSBC on the same day as the hearing, which was the first five-year deal with an interest rate of less than 4% since early October.

 

He argued that this showed that mortgage rates were falling, despite the Bank rate still rising, and was far lower than the rates that had been predicted after the mini-budget.

 

Yet, he said that the "headwinds are ahead of us, not behind us" when analysing the number of people who were falling behind on mortgage repayments.

 

HSBC to close 114 UK branches as more bank online

The bank chief executives were also pressed on branch closures, with all accepting they had shut a host of premises in recent years.

 

Mr Stuart said that this was a response to the changing ways people were managing their money.

 

"Customer behaviours started to change in 1982 with the advent of the cash machine, and it has been on a journey from that point and it has sped up," he said.

 

He said that 98% of transactions in December were digital, displaying how the needs of customers from a branch had changed in recent decades.

 

The bosses gave examples of cash pods, bank hubs, mobile banking vans, and smart ATMs as alternatives, with specialists often using different channels to talk to customers in their own homes.-bbc

 

 

 

 

Kenya Imports Wheat From Russia Amid High Prices

Nairobi — Kenya has received a bulk import of wheat at the Port of Mombasa, coming at a time when the country is grappling with wheat shortages.

 

The consignment, which arrived in the country on February 7th 2023, originated from the Port of Novorossiysk in southern Russia.

 

Another consignment from Russia is also expected in the country on February 12th 2023.

 

Wheat import into the country will help cool down prices of wheat flour that now retails at about Sh200 per 2-kilogram packet.

 

The country has been grappling with a shortage of wheat following the onset of Ukraine-Russia war, cutting off the supply chain.

 

Combined, the two states produce significant volumes of wheat that are dependent globally.

 

Local production has been hampered by drought, high cost of inputs as well as quelea bird infestations, the Agriculture and Food Authority (AFA) attributed.

 

Last year, millers shipped at least 1.5 million 90-kilo bags of wheat to fill up dwindling stocks.

 

"Local wheat production for the current season was lower at 1.2 million 90 kg bags compared to 1.8 million last season," AFA said last year.

 

-Capital FM.

 

 

 

Nigeria: Extend Old Naira Notes Deadline, 36 Governors Beg Buhari

The 36 governors in Nigeria have urged President Buhari to extend the deadline and revisit the CBN cashless policy.

 

The governors, under the aegis Nigeria Governors' Forum, made the demand in a letter addressed to the President, dated February 6, 2023, and signed by the Chairman of the Forum, Governor Aminu Tambuwal, of Sokoto State

 

The NGF, in its letter, said: "Even though the identified constraints are to be found in almost every state in the country, they are particularly evident in states like Borno in the North-East and Bayelsa in the South-South where one finds a pitiable number of banks located only in the State capital which would basically render the workability of the new policies impossible for now.

 

 

"The speed of implementation of the policy is a recipe for anarchy in the country and we urge a re-think of the policy. Regarding the reviewed cash withdrawal limit, we have found from synthesizing experiences across the country that the informal sector in the States, particularly in the Northern and Niger Delta States almost wholly depends on cash transactions because of the nature of their trade.

 

"It is our view, Sir, that an immediate limitation in the use of cash without robust engagement with stakeholders as well as the provision of accessible alternatives will deny such people legitimate sources of livelihood.

 

"We fear that the cumulative effect of these unintended but very profound and probable consequences of these policies would be a rise in the number of unemployed and unengaged persons who will inevitably resort to crime to make ends meet. This has a dangerous implication for the security of the country and the potential to derail Mr President's security agenda."

 

The governors urged the President to extend the span for implementation of the new naira policy and order the CBN to ensure the availability of the new notes.

 

They said: "We most respectfully pray, Mr President, to approve an expanded time frame for the implementation of the policy and direct the CBN to make the new notes available within the enlarged time frame.

 

"Direct a thorough assessment of the prevailing economic conditions related to the implementation of the currency change and cash withdrawal limit policies. Direct that States be involved in future discussions regarding the policies in order to have revised policies that would recognize and consider states' peculiarities.

 

"Consider and approve the putting in place of necessary infrastructure and facilities within a reasonable time frame to facilitate the implementation of the policy, including introducing incentives to encourage the use of digital payment solutions. This will help reduce the pressure on physical cash and promote financial inclusion, investing in infrastructure to expand access to financial services.

 

"Direct that a robust enlightenment campaign be mounted to create sufficient awareness in the citizens of the thrust of the policy. This will help people better understand the implications of the naira redesign and cash withdrawal limits and how to use digital payments platforms."

 

-Vanguard.

 

 

 

Nigeria: How Accurate Are Kwankwaso's Claims About Nigeria's Oil Production?

Mr Kwankwaso, a former minister of defence, expressed concern about how crude oil theft in Nigeria is undermining production and consequently affecting the country's revenue generation.

 

On 26 January 2023, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Rabiu Kwankwaso, spoke at Daily Trust's annual dialogue on his blueprint and how he intends to govern Nigeria if elected.

 

Mr Kwankwaso, a former minister of defence, expressed concern about how crude oil theft in Nigeria is undermining production and consequently affecting the country's revenue generation.

 

The ex-senator made some claims regarding Nigeria's oil quota and production. But, how true is Mr Kwankwaso's claims on the oil output of Africa's largest oil producer?

 

 

Claim 1

 

Claim: Nigeria is producing less than one million barrels of crude oil per day.

 

Verification: A review of data obtained from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that from October to December 2022, Nigeria's oil output was above one million barrels per day.

 

In October, Nigeria's average production was 1.014 million barrels per day. The output turnout increased to 1.1 million barrels per day in November.

 

By December, Africa's largest oil producer pumped 1.2 million barrels daily.

 

OPEC uses secondary sources to monitor its oil output but also publishes a table of figures submitted by its member countries.

 

 

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), in its monthly oil production status report, corroborated the same data published by OPEC.

 

Verdict: False. OPEC monthly oil market report and NUPRC monthly production report.

 

Claim 2

 

Claim: Mr Kwankwaso claimed that Nigeria's oil production quota was more than 2.2 million barrels per day.

 

Verification: Throughout the past year (2022), the average production quota set by OPEC for Nigeria was about 1.7 million barrels per day. In January, at the start of 2022, Nigeria's quota stood at 1.68 million barrels per day. By February, the OPEC quota had increased to 1.7 million barrels per day.

 

By March, as the price of crude jumped to $113 per barrel, OPEC also increased Nigeria's quota to 1.71 million barrels per day. Although oil prices dropped to $105 in April, OPEC increased Nigeria's required production to 1.73 million daily barrels. With some companies shutting production in May, the average OPEC quota for Nigeria that month was 1.75 million barrels per day.

 

By June, the OPEC basket price had climbed again to $118 per barrel, and OPEC's required production increased to 1.77 million barrels per day. In July, Nigeria's quota stood at 1.79 million barrels. Meanwhile, between August and December 2022, Nigeria's required production set by OPEC was 1.8 million barrels per day.

 

Verdict: False. OPEC data shows that Nigeria's oil production quota averaged about 1.7 million barrels in 2022.

 

Conclusion

 

The claims made by Mr Kwankwanso that Nigeria's oil output is less than one million barrels per day and the oil production quota is more than 2.2 million barrels per day are false.

 

Data shows that Nigeria produced an average of 1.1 million barrels per day between October and December last year. Similarly, Nigeria's oil production quota averaged about 1.7 million barrels per day in 2022.

 

The researcher produced this fact-check per the DUBAWA 2023 Kwame Karikari Fellowship partnership with Premium Times to facilitate the ethos of truth in journalism and enhance media literacy in the country.

 

-Premium Times.

 

 

 

Nigeria: Ways and Means - IMF Urges CBN to Stop Full Financing of Govt's Fiscal Deficits

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to go beyond recent increases in the policy rate to implement additional actions, including fully sterilising the apex bank's financing of fiscal deficits under its Ways and Means window as well as phasing out other credit intervention programmes.

 

The multilateral lender also called on the Nigerian authorities to expedite action in finalising the moves to securitise the N22.7 trillion overdrafts extended by the CBN to the federal government to finance annual fiscal deficits.

 

In a statement issued after its Executive Board concluded its 2022 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria, the IMF observed recent increases in the policy rate, but encouraged the CBN to stand ready to further increase the policy rate if needed, and to implement additional actions, including fully sterilising central bank financing of fiscal deficits and phasing out credit intervention programmes.

 

 

The IMF stated: "Strengthening the CBN's independence and establishing price stability as its primary objective is critical. Directors also urged the authorities to finalise securitisation of the CBN's existing stock of overdrafts and emphasised that the CBN's budget financing should strictly adhere to the statutory limits."

 

According to the IMF, Nigeria's economy has recouped the output losses sustained during the COVID-19 pandemic supported by favorable oil prices and buoyant consumption activities.

 

It stressed: "Gross domestic product (GDP) adjusted for inflation has already reached its pre-crisis level and the third quarter of 2022 marked the eighth consecutive quarter of positive growth--despite continued challenges in the oil sector. Growth is estimated at 3 percent for 2022.

 

 

"Headline inflation declined in December 2022 for the first time in 11 months, but at 21.3 per cent remains high--driven by elevated international food prices, large parallel market premiums and monetary policy accommodation. While the Central Bank of Nigeria raised the Monetary Policy rate (MPR) by a cumulative 500 basis points in 2022 and another 100 bps in January 2023, inflation remains above the MPR."

 

But it stated that despite rising oil prices, the general government fiscal deficit was estimated to have widened further in 2022, mainly due to high fuel subsidy costs, adding that while the current account was estimated to have improved in 2022, foreign currency reserves declined amidst capital outflow pressures.

 

The global lender observed that notwithstanding the authorities' success in containing and managing the COVID-19 infections, socio-economic conditions remain difficult.

 

 

"The spillover effects of the war in Ukraine, which have been transmitted mainly through higher domestic food prices, worsened the scarring effects of the pandemic, particularly on the most vulnerable--with Nigeria being among the countries with the lowest food security.

 

"The near-term outlook faces downside risks, while there are upside risks in the medium term. Higher international food and fertilizer prices and continued widening of the parallel market premium could culminate in the de-anchoring of inflation expectations," it added.

 

The oil sector, it pointed out, faces downside risks from possible production and price volatility, while climate-related natural disasters, including floods pose the same risks to agricultural production.

 

"Further widening in sovereign premia could increase debt servicing costs. In the medium term, there are upside risks from a potential stronger reform momentum and a larger-than-expected rebound in oil and gas production," the IMF stated.

 

It welcomed the broadening of Nigeria's economic recovery, but noted that the opportunity to reap the benefits from higher global oil prices was missed even as it underscored near-term downside risks arising from elevated inflation, high debt-servicing costs, external sector pressures, and oil sector volatility.

 

"Looking ahead, Directors recommended decisive fiscal and monetary tightening to secure macroeconomic stability, combined with structural reforms to improve governance, strengthen the agricultural sector, and boost inclusive, sustainable growth.

 

"Directors highlighted the need for bold fiscal reforms to create needed policy space, put public debt on sound footing, and reduce vulnerabilities.

 

"They urged the authorities to deliver on their commitment to remove fuel subsidies by mid-2023, and to increase well-targeted social spending. Strengthening revenue mobilisation, including through tax administration reforms, expanding the tax automation system and strengthening taxpayer segmentation, and improving tax compliance is also a priority.

 

"In the medium term, Directors recommended modernising customs administration, rationalising tax incentives and raising tax rates to the levels of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

 

"Directors urged decisive and effective monetary policy tightening to avoid a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. Noting recent increases in the policy rate, they encouraged the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stand ready to further increase the policy rate if needed and to implement additional actions, including fully sterilising central bank financing of fiscal deficits and phasing out credit intervention programs," the statement added.

 

The IMF encouraged a continued move towards a unified and market-clearing exchange rate by dismantling various exchange rate windows at the CBN. Providing clarity on exchange rate policy would help boost investor confidence, quell capital outflow pressures, and rebuild buffers.

 

It also welcomed Nigeria's intention to participate in the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCfTA), the resilience of the banking sector and encouraged increased vigilance given potential risks associated with dynamic retail credit growth.

 

The multilateral lenders also emphasised the need to enhance the effectiveness of the Anti-Money Laundering, Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework and to avoid public listing by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).

 

While welcoming the ongoing efforts to foster financial inclusion, including through the use of mobile money with appropriate regulation and supervision, the IMF

 

highlighted the importance of improving the performance of the agricultural sector for job creation and food security.

 

It urged the authorities to implement governance reforms, including delivering on commitments from the 2020 Rapid Financing Instrument, adding that improving transparency and accountability in the oil sector is also key to strengthening governance.

 

-This Day.

 

 

 

Nigeria: Govt Blames Profiteers for Hike in Fuel Price

The federal government yesterday formally reacted to the increase in the price of petroleum products across the country and heaped the blame on the rush by petroleum marketers to make illicit profits from the hardship of Nigerians.

 

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Timipre Sylva, who disclosed this to newsmen after the weekly Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting, presided over by President Muhammadu Buhari, at the State House, Abuja, also lamented the hardship the situation had forced on the populace.

 

There had been reports from different parts of the country indicating that most fuel stations now sell above the approved pump price of N195, but rather selling at prices ranging between N200 and N450, while many other stations are reportedly hoarding the product.

 

 

Reacting to the issue, the Minister directed the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) to go after marketers profiteering with the current situation and sanction them.

 

According to him, the government was not just folding its arms while Nigerians suffer, assuring that all stakeholders in the downstream sector were working to ensure the current crisis is brought under control.

 

He said: "We have reports of profiteering by marketers, and I've directed NMDPRA to sanction anybody who profiteers on this kind of situation. I mean, we cannot stand by and watch our citizens being exploited by marketers.

 

"But of course, I've given that directive and I don't know if it has not taken effect. I don't know the details of how far that directive has been carried out. But I'm going to still further give that directive, if that is still the situation, but definitely we are not paying a blind eye at all."

 

 

Sylva, while explaining that the Ministry of Petroleum Resources was not in control of all the factors that had contributed to the fuel scarcity crisis assured Nigerians that all steps were being taken to end the hardship.

 

"This is quite unfortunate; we are not happy at all about what is going on. Every hand is on the deck. As I said earlier, the Ministry of Petroleum is not in control of all the factors that lead to scarcity in the sense that there are Forex issues as well and other issues.

 

"But at the moment today, there is supply, but unfortunately, we are experiencing some bottlenecks with the distribution and movement of the product to various destinations for now.

 

 

"I want to assure you that everything is being done; the NNPC Limited, NMDPRA, the marketers, everybody's hand is on deck to ensure that this problem is resolved and to also inform you today we had a briefing from INEC and INEC has also engaged NNPC and NNPC has assured INEC that petroleum products supply to INEC will not be a problem and so that will not likely affect the election at all."

 

Yesterday's FEC meeting also approved the sum of N117,721,266,733 for contracts in the Petroleum Resources and Aviation ministries.

 

Sylva said Council approved the sum of N117 billion for the construction of the Oloibiri Oil Museum and Research Centre in Bayelsa State.

 

According to him, the project, which has been on the drawing board since the early 1980s, from the era of President Shehu Shagari, would be one of the Muhammadu Buhari administration's legacies.

 

"Council has approved a contract for the construction of the Oloibiri Oil Museum and Research Center to Messrs Julius Berger PLC, at the sum of N117 billion, with a completion timeframe of 30 months. This project has been on the drawing board for so long.

 

"The first time foundation stone was laid for this project was in the early 80s by President Shehu Shagari. So, this actually is a major milestone and it is expected to be a major legacy of Mr. President in the Niger Delta," he said.

 

On his part, Minister of Aviation, Senator Hadi Sirika, disclosed that Council approved the sum of N721,266,733.64 for the maintenance and technical support at Malam Aminu Kano International Airport, Kano.

 

According to him: "Today in Council, Aviation had one memo and this memorandum is a contract that was awarded to CCECC and it is for the airport maintenance and technical support at Malam Aminu Kano International Airport, Kano and... for a period of 12 months and the sum of the contract is N721,266,733.64 and the memorandum was approved".

 

When asked when the national carrier, Nigeria Air, will commence flight operations, the Minister explained that the federal government was already done with the initial processes and that it is just a matter of sealing the last move in obtaining the Air Operator Certificates (AOC) and the carrier will start flying.

 

"Nigeria Air will soon start flying, we've got the aircrafts ready, they're painted in the colors. We've crossed all the Ts and dot the Is. We're at stage five of the AOC issuance by NCAA. Once that is done, the airline will begin to fly.

 

"So there are five stages, we've done stages 1,2,3,4 and we are now at stage five, once the AOC is given, the aircraft is ready to start to fly. Well, because the issuance of the AOC is in the hands of NCAA, but I know it will be very soon, with an emphasis on soon. So as soon as we get the AOC, then we fly."

 

Asked if the kick off of flight operations had been as a result of the litigation by some Nigerian airliners, Sirika said "there's no injunction against Nigeria Air's operation, to my knowledge.

 

"The grievances by some airlines, for example United, Azman, Max Air, Air Peace, if you are referring to that case that they instituted. Okay if you are referring to that case, I have no comment about it.

 

"I thought you were talking about something different, but if it's that case, you have asked me before on this platform and I told you that it's subjudice, it's in court, so I can't talk about it", he further said.

 

-This Day.

 

 

 

 


 


 


Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2023

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

Robert Mugabe National Youth Day

 

February 21

 


Cafca 

AGM

virtual 

February 23  - (12pm)

 


Ariston 

AGM

Centenary Room, Royal Harare Golf Club

February 24 - 3:30pm

 


 

Good Friday

 

April 7

 


 

Easter Saturday

 

April 8

 


 

Easter Sunday

 

April 9

 


 

Easter Monday

 

April 10

 


 

Independence Day

 

April 18

 


 

Workers’ Day

 

May 1

 


 

Africa Day

 

May 25

 


 

 

 

 

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

 


Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

 


GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

 


 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 


 

 


(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:  <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell: +263 77 344 1674

 


 

 

 

 

 

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