Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 13 February 2023

Tue Feb 14 06:00:35 CAT 2023

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 13 February 2023

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

ZSE commentary

ZSE takes a breather.

The ZSE took a breather in the week-opener as profit taking  took its toll.
The primary All Share Index tripped 2.29% to 29257.89pts while, the ZSE Top
Ten Index shed 3.35% to end at 18446.29pts. On the contrary, the Mid Cap
Index improved 0.73% to 56004.49pts while, the ZSE Agriculture Index added
0.07% to close at 112.68pts. Leading the fallers' pack was bankers CBZ that
succumbed 12.12% to $145.0000. Beverages group Delta followed on a 7.57%
plunge to close at a vwap of $600.0178 having traded an intraday low of
$600.0000. First Capital dropped 4.47% to $18.1436 while; brick makers
Willdale came off 4.46% to $2.6000. Zimre Holdings capped the top five
decliners of the day on a 2.16% tumble to $8.9000. Partially offsetting the
losses of the day were Mashonaland Holdings that jumped 14.27% to trade at
$8.0000 while, Ariston surged 8.98% to $4.4943. Packaging group Nampak
notched 7.53% to $20.0000 as hotelier African Sun rallied 4.75% to $52.0456.
Star Africa completed the top five winners' pack on a 4.12% lift to $2.0000.

Volume of shares traded tumbled 75.17% to 3.45m while, turnover plummeted
80.46% to $443.62m. Volume leaders of the day were African Sun, Econet and
OKZIM with respective contributions of 36.02%, 18.19% and 16.34%. Econet,
Innscor, African Sun, Tanganda and Delta anchored the value outturn with a
combined contribution of 84%. On the VFEX, Simbisa and Seedco International
let go 2.05% and 0.08% to close at USD$0.4212 and USD$0.2598 respectively.
Bindura, National Foods and Padenga were unchanged at USD$0.0214, USD$1.8100
and USD$0.2865. A total of 73,234 shares worth USD$31,871.92 exchanged hands
on the VFEX. The Old Mutual ETF rose 2.53% to $9.1024 while, the Datvest ETF
added 0.02% to $1.6005. The MIZ ETF trimmed 1.89% to end pegged at $1.3147
while, Cass Saddle and Morgan and Co MCS were stable at $2.2500 and $25.0000
apiece. The Tigere REIT traded 1,157 units at $50.6100.-efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Nigeria

Nigeria's naira shortage: Anger and chaos outside banks

People in Nigeria have taken to sleeping outside banks. They want to be
among the first in line to get notes from the cash machine once it is loaded
up in the morning.

A lack of newly designed naira notes has led to a cash shortage and a
growing sense of anxiety among those desperate to get hold of their money in
a country where 40% of the population don't have bank accounts.

The Supreme Court has even become involved and has ordered that the deadline
to hand in old notes be extended but this has made little difference.

People here have long been used to the periodic bouts of fuel shortages
leading to long lines of cars snaking from the petrol stations. But now long
lines of frustrated, confused and angry people have become a common sight
outside banks as the country builds up to a presidential election at the end
of the month.

"I have not eaten today," says Abraham Osundiran, 36, as he stands in one of
two queues at a bank in Ikoyi, a district in the country's main commercial
hub, Lagos.

He has had to miss work at a construction company for a second day because
he does not have the cash to pay the taxi fare. Some Nigerians have embraced
digital payments, but many still rely heavily on cash.

"I don't have any cash. I've had to skip breakfast so I could come here, and
I don't know what I will eat for the rest of the day."

It is a similar situation for many others.

"It's painful. I can't go to the market, because they want cash. Buses want
cash - now I have to trek everywhere," hairdresser Lilian Ineh, 26, tells
the BBC from her salon.

"There's no money to buy stock, so I have less products to sell. There are
even less customers. Usually on a Saturday I have a minimum of five."

Last Saturday, she only had two.

Nigerians were told last October that the old notes were being replaced with
new notes and they were encouraged to deposit any cash savings in the bank.

"They made us put all our money into our accounts, and now we can't access
it. It's unbearable," says Osarenoma Kolawole, 40. She works in telesales,
but has not been able to access her salary since getting paid last week.

"The last time I went to the shops, I had to buy eggs instead of fish - that
really hurt me - not the food, but having to buy what I didn't want to, just
because the banks won't let me get my money."

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said it redesigned the higher denomination
notes - 200, 500 and 1,000 naira - to replace the dirty cash in circulation,
to tackle inflation, curb counterfeiting and promote a cashless society.

It hoped the redesign would bring some of the money being hoarded by
individuals and companies back into the financial system.

The reform has created something like a cashless society - but not in the
way the CBN had planned.

People have been finding it difficult to make online payments and transfers.
Analysts say the infrastructure to support a digital system is not robust
enough.

"The whole idea was to limit how much cash people have access to, in order
to encourage them to make digital payments, so they [CBN] can monitor where
money goes," says Paul Alaje, a senior economist at management consultants
SPM Professionals.

"But Nigerian banks don't have the capacity or structure to make digital
payments work seamlessly."

The CBN has not said whether the shortages are deliberate.

"The government has been trying to move the country into a cashless economy
for ages," argues policy analyst and economist Yemi Makinde.

"Its intention is good, but it is just not feasible, the banking systems
were not ready and Nigeria is just used to cash."

When announcing the redesign, the CBN said the new notes would begin
circulating from 15 December and the old notes would cease to be legal
tender at the end of January.

The bank then extended the deadline to last Friday. But the Supreme Court
stepped in and suspended this deadline but the queues outside banks remain.

"The only way this judgment would work is to release old notes back into
system to meet the shortage [but] doing that will only take us back to
square one," says economist Mr Alaje.

Accusations of hoarding

Many have also blamed individual bank branches.

Firstly, they were still giving out the old notes rather than new ones, even
up to the week of the initial deadline, thereby keeping them in circulation.

Secondly, agents from the country's anti-fraud body, the Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission, raided some bank branches and arrested managers
who were accused of hoarding the new notes in vaults rather than putting
them in cash machines and giving them to customers.

"The banks are not doing a good job distributing the money. Bank managers
have been keeping a lot of the money aside for people with connections and
for the rich, misusing the central bank's policy," Dr Makinde says.

As a consequence, the lack of new naira notes has hit those who primarily
deal with cash day-to-day, like market sellers and hawkers.

Iya Ruka, 52, sells plantains at a market in Ojodu Berger, Lagos. She has
had to adapt by accepting bank transfers - but this has not helped her when
she needs money.

"All my customers are saying they don't have cash, they will pay using a
bank transfer, but I go to the bank and there's no cash for me to collect.
So what do I do?"

Further down the street, Kingsley, who only gave his first name, sells
mobile phone accessories.

The 27-year-old told me he has hardly sold anything in the last few days.

"People only pay [by] transfer. If I want to get home, I need to go to a
Point of Sale (POS) to get money and they charge a lot now."

POS vendors are individuals standing at street corners who have a card
machine and can make transfers for people, but often charge a commission.

They have been accused of fleecing ordinary people by charging extortionate
amounts for cash withdrawals.

'Things will get better'

One vendor, who spoke on condition of anonymity, defended the need to charge
extra.

"I queued for an entire day at a bank to get new notes and old notes. That's
why they must pay, because we queue," says the 25-year-old, who runs a kiosk
in Lekki.

She adds that she is not sure how much longer she will be able to keep up
the business, as the banks run dry.

"Some customers can get angry and nearly violent - I just avoid looking up
at them. They forget I'm suffering as well, like now, I have to trek for an
hour home, and I have only been eating garri [cassava flakes]."

CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele has said he has taken steps to get more of the
new notes into the system with the aim of easing the situation.

The chaos has become a major election issue with calls for President
Muhammadu Buhari to take action to avoid losing votes for the ruling All
Progressives Congress.

Despite the crisis, there are a few people, especially those who managed to
plan well ahead, who have not felt the crunch just yet.

Ruth Okeke, 35, runs a convenience shop in Omole. She says even though her
number of customers has dropped, she is not worried.

"I know things will get better. The bankers are the ones making money from
all this panic, but there will be new notes soon, everybody should relax."

South Africa

South African rand strengthens against weaker dollar

(Reuters) - The South African rand strengthened on Monday against a weaker
U.S. dollar, after hitting a three-month low earlier in the day amid
concerns about persistent power cuts.

At 1803 GMT, the rand traded at 17.8400 to the dollar , about 0.3% stronger
than its previous close.

Earlier in the day, it broke above 18 to the dollar for the first time since
November 2022.

South Africa is facing an energy crisis that President Cyril Ramaphosa has
called an "existential threat" to its economy. Last week he declared a
national "state of disaster" over the power shortages, giving the government
additional powers including permitting emergency procurement procedures.

On Friday ratings agency Moody's said in an issuer comment on South Africa:
"the (power) blackouts' effect on businesses, consumer sentiment and
investment will weaken the country's already subdued economic growth
prospects and threaten social and political stability".

The dollar was down about 0.2% against a basket of global currencies on
Monday, with market attention pinned on Tuesday's U.S. consumer price report
and its implications for the Fed's interest rate trajectory.

Local investors will be looking at South Africa's latest consumer price
report (ZACPIY=ECI) and retail sales figures (ZARET=ECI) on Wednesday for
clues on the health of the economy.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's All-share index (.JALSH) was up 0.99%.

Shares of Attacq (ATTJ.J) jumped 15.4%, their biggest one-day jump on
record, after the South African commercial property group said the
Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF) is planning to buy a 30% stake in
its Waterfall investment firm for 2.8 billion rand ($157 million).

The government's benchmark 2030 bond was slightly stronger, with the yield
down 1.5 basis points to 9.850%.

($1 = 17.8461 rand)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar falls as markets consolidate gains; up vs yen ahead of inflation data

(Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday in choppy trading after last week's
strong rally, weighed down by firmer stocks and lower long-dated Treasury
yields, as investors consolidated positions ahead of Tuesday's crucial U.S.
consumer price index (CPI) data.

The greenback, however, rose to six-week highs against the rate-sensitive
Japanese yen on expectations the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy
tight for longer. This view will be challenged or confirmed by the CPI data,
which loomed over Monday's trading.

"Higher stocks and lower yields are causing the dollar to take a breather
ahead of tomorrow's inflation data," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst
at payments company Convera in Washington.

"The risk-on trade is also weighing on the yen, while it's not helping that
the next head of the BOJ (Bank of Japan) might not necessarily signal an
imminent change in course from the negative rate policy."

Investors expect headline CPI to rise 0.5% in January on Tuesday, after
falling 0.1% in December, with the core number seen advancing to 0.4% from
0.3% the previous month, according to a Reuters poll.

The euro hit a one-month low of $1.0656 in Asia trading, but was last up
0.4% at $1.0719. The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2134, after hitting a
one-month low of $1.1961 last week .

That left the dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six major
currencies, at 103.29, down 0.3%.

The dollar rose to 132.91 yen, the highest since Jan 6. . It was last up
0.7% at 132.34 yen.

"The market doesn't want to be short dollar/yen ahead of CPI tomorrow," said
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York.

The greenback tracked the rise in the U.S. Treasury two-year yield, which
was last up 1.7 basis points (bps) at 4.53% , after hitting its highest
since late November.

"We have a nice pullback in the U.S. dollar after a strong rally last week,"
said Bannockburn's Chandler.

"I don't think we have taken out key levels just yet. But we're
consolidating some positions after last week's moves and ahead of tomorrow's
CPI."

Higher U.S. yields were a major driver of the softer yen. The benchmark
10-year U.S. Treasury yield on Monday hit a fresh six-week high of 3.755%
and the two-year yield hit its highest since late November at 4.56%.

The Japanese currency dropped sharply last year to a 32-year low of 151.94
per dollar as U.S. rates rose, while Japanese rates stayed near zero.

It has regained ground this year as U.S. rates seemed to be near their peak,
and as expectations rose that the Bank of Japan would move away from its
ultra-loose stance, but both scenarios now look like they have been delayed.

Sources said on Friday that former Bank of Japan board member Kazuo Ueda is
set to become the next governor. In an interview the same day, Ueda said it
was appropriate for the BOJ to maintain its current ultra-easy policy.

In the United States, money markets are positioned for U.S. interest rates
to peak at 5.2% around July, compared with the Fed's current target rate of
4.5-4.75%, but have mostly walked back expectations of major rate cuts later
in the year.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc strengthened after Swiss inflation data came in
higher than expected. The dollar slid as low as 0.9193 Swiss francs and was
last down 0.4% at 0.9197 francs .

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold price slips with spotlight on US inflation data

Gold prices slipped on Monday due to upticks in both the US dollar and bond
yields, with the spotlight on January's consumer price index data which
could steer the Federal Reserve's rate hike strategy.

Spot gold fell its lowest in over a month, down 0.7% to $1,853.70 per ounce
by 11:50 a.m. ET. US gold futures declined 0.6% to $1,863.60 per ounce in
New York.

The dollar index held steady, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive
for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hit their
highest level since early January.

A stronger dollar is weighing on gold, with the metal "a little lower just
based off that heading into tomorrow morning's (CPI) number," Bob Haberkorn,
senior market strategist at RJO Futures, told Reuters.

All eyes are now on the US CPI data due Tuesday morning, which is expected
to have climbed 0.4% in January. Revisions to the previous data showed
consumer prices rose in December instead of falling as previously estimated.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the Fed will need to continue to raise
interest rates in order to get them to a level high enough to bring
inflation back down.

Markets have raised the profile for future tightening by the Fed, with rates
seen peaking at around 5.15% and with cuts coming later and slower.

(With files from Reuters)

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Robert Mugabe National Youth Day

February 21

Cafca 

AGM

virtual 

February 23  - (12pm)

Ariston 

AGM

Centenary Room, Royal Harare Golf Club

February 24 - 3:30pm

Good Friday

April 7

Easter Saturday

April 8

Easter Sunday

April 9

Easter Monday

April 10

Independence Day

April 18

Workers' Day

May 1

Africa Day

May 25

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell:
+263 77 344 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29279 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29372 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130910 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230214/02f8b688/attachment-0001.obj>