Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 January 2023

Tue Jan 31 08:10:37 CAT 2023

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 January 2023

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

ZSE commentary

Winning streak continues in the new week

ZSE gains persisted into the penultimate session of the month as four
indices that we review closed pointing northwards. The primary All Share
Index put on 2.19% to end at 22628.32pts while, the ZSE Top Ten Index grew
1.58% to 13827.82pts. The ZSE Agriculture Index improved 4.64% to 97.18pts
while, the Mid-Cap Index added 3.80% to close at 46874.46pts. The top winner
of the day was Hippo Valley that surged 15.00% to $370.3500 while, SeedCo
limited jumped 14.98% to $189.7500. Dairibord notched 14.97% to settle at
$52.0500 as Proplastics gained 14.00% to $51.3000. Microfinance group
Getbucks completed the top five risers of the day on a 9.75% to $21.9500. On
the downside was NMB that receded 10.51% to $36.4000. General Beltings came
off 2.87% to $1.7445 as TSL was 1.57% softer at $50.2000. Zimre holdings
retreated 0.73% to $6.8000 while, agriculture concern Ariston trimmed 0.66%
to close at $4.7511. Activity aggregates were depressed in Monday’s session
as volumes dipped 54.72% to 2.45m while, market spend plunged 69.74% to
$181.09m.

Volume drivers of the day were Axia and First Capital that claimed a
combined 67.61% of the aggregate. Value drivers of the day were Axia
(53.33%), Delta (12.67%) and Innscor (10.27%). The VFEX market succumbed to
losses in the session as three counters closed in the red. Simbisa was worst
faller having declined 8.62% to $0.4304 while, Padenga and SeedCo
International shed 0.81% and 0.07% apiece. A total of 37,131 shares worth
USD$11,357.34 exchanged hands. The Old Mutual Top Ten ETF charged 5.18% to
$7.8908 while, Cass Saddle and Morgan and Co MCS were stable at $2.2500 and
$24.5000. Datvest and MIZ ETFs tumbled 0.47% and 0.30% to end pegged at
$1.4904 and $1.2961 apiece. The Tigere REIT was unchanged at $50.6200 on 395
shares. -efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand weakens against dollar, stocks down

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand weakened on Monday ahead of a slew of
domestic economic data due this week.

At 1602 GMT, the rand traded at 17.3375 against the dollar, 0.77% weaker
than its previous close.

The rand's weakness reflects domestic growth concerns due to an ongoing
electricity crisis, Investec analyst Annabel Bishop said in a note.

"The looming threat of stage 8 load shedding, and outages including stage 6
so far, have eroded confidence in the domestic economic outlook, with no
government solution in sight in the near-term, pushing the rand weaker,"
Bishop said.

This week, local investors will be looking at money supply and trade balance
figures for December, as well as the purchasing managers' index survey for
January by S&P Global for clues on the health of the economy.

The December budget surplus (ZABUDM=ECI) rose to 44.97 billion rand from
41.89 billion rand a year earlier, National Treasury data showed on Monday.

In the equities market, the Johannesburg All Share index (.JALSH) dropped
0.56% to 74,343 points, while the Top-40 index (.JTOPI) closed 0.58% lower
to 80,324 points.

The government's benchmark 2030 bond was weaker in afternoon deals, with the
yield up 2.5 basis points to 9.690%.

-The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Ghana

Cedi depreciated by 19.1per cent to dollar in January 2023 – BoG

According to the Summary of Economic and Financial Data from the Bank of
Ghana seen by Graphic Business, the cedi sold at ¢10.60 to one US dollar in
January 2023 on the interbank market, compared with ¢8.57 in December, 2022.

The central bank, however, pegged the cedi depreciation to the American
greenback in 2022 to 30 per cent.

For the pound and the euro, the local currency lost 21.4 per cent and 20.7
per cent in value respectively in January 2023.

The local currency came under severe pressure to the American currency in
January 2023 after recording some sustained stability in the greater part of
December 2022.

This was after Ghana reached a Staff-Level Agreement with the International
Monetary Fund.

By this depreciation the cedi follows its trend to become the second weakest
currency among 15 top currencies in Sub-Saharan Africa in January 2023. It
is still currently in that position.

It sold at ¢13.10 to one US dollar on the forex or retail market, but has
since improved very slightly in value to ¢12.90.

The cedi recorded a sustained stability to the dollar and the major foreign
currencies this week.

According to experts the marginal gain by the cedi to the barter of
gold-for-oil programme which has eased pressure on forex to import oil into
the country.

The first batch of the gold-for-oil barter (41,000 metric tonnes of oil)
arrived last week.

However, before this week, the local currency traded at a mid-rate of
¢12.90, losing 1.55 per cent value to the American greenback the previous
week.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar set for fourth monthly drop as Fed meeting looms

(Reuters) - The dollar was eyeing a fourth monthly loss on Tuesday as
investors reckon a peak in U.S. interest rates could swing into view as soon
as this week's Federal Reserve meeting. Currency trade was subdued in the
lead up to Wednesday's Fed rate decision, and ahead of Bank of England and
European Central Bank rate decisions on Thursday, though cautiousness across
financial markets gave the greenback a bit of support.

The euro wandered as far as $1.0913 on Monday after data showed Spanish
inflation running surprisingly hot in January, though the broader mood has
reeled it back to $1.0845. The common currency is up 1.3% this month and is
loitering near a nine-month peak. The U.S. dollar index is down 1.3% for
January so far and held at 102.28 on Tuesday. The Japanese yen fell 0.4%
overnight but was steady at 130.26 in Asia and is set for its third monthly
gain as markets anticipate shifts in monetary policy.

Sterling and the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars also made
overnight losses but are set for monthly gains. The Aussie fell 0.7%
overnight, but at $0.7036 it is up about 3.2% for the month so far. The
kiwi, last at $0.6474, is up more than 1.5% for January. "Technically I
think they're looking a little bit tired," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at
brokerage IG Markets in Sydney, referring to currencies rallying against the
dollar, with investor caution and month-end dollar buying also contributing
to their loss of momentum in the Asia session.

Interest-rate futures indicate market expectations for a 25 basis point (bp)
hike from the Federal Reserve to take the Fed funds rate window to
4.5%-4.75%. Pricing suggests two more 25 bp hikes are expected, before cuts
later in the year. "Traders will need to marry the tone of the statement and
(Fed chair Jerome) Powell's press conference with this pricing structure,"
said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne. "In
the less likely outcome that the Fed give the impression that they could
pause after this week's hike, then the U.S. dollar could easily sell off and
risky assets rally." 

Markets mostly shrugged off slightly better-than-expected Chinese
manufacturing data, which showed a welcome return to growth in January, with
focus now on the recovery ahead. Australia also sounded a bit of a warning
on consumption, with retail sales logging their biggest drop in more than
two years last month in a sign that rate hikes are biting. Traders slightly
pared rate expectations on the news. 

A preliminary reading for euro zone gross domestic product is due later in
the day, while across the Atlantic U.S. employment cost data will also be
closely watched because the labour market can guide monetary policy. "It is
probably too late to have too much influence on the ultimate size of the
widely expected 25bp rate hike that is due to be announced on Wednesday,"
said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. 

"But results from the report will play a big role in the tone Powell uses in
his press conference." Bitcoin, up nearly 40% in January to $22,865, is set
for its best month since October 2021.

Rupee loses another Rs7 against US dollar

KARACHI: The persistent economic uncertainty on Monday further weakened the
rupee making the dollar holders reluctant to sell their holdings as the
greenback posted massive gains both in open and interbank markets.

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported that the dollar price increased by
Rs7.03 to Rs269.63 from Rs262.60 on Friday. However, the exchange companies
reported the interbank rate at Rs272 compared to Rs265 the previous day.

Similarly, the dollar price in the open market rose to Rs275 from Rs269 on
Jan 27. Exchange Companies Association chairman Malik Bostan said for the
first time Kabul rate (grey market) was lower than the open market rate.

He said that despite a very high dollar rate, the open market could not
attract sellers and remained dry most of the time. He said the highest price
was noted in Peshawar where the greenback was traded in the range of Rs270
to Rs282.

“The demand for greenback has increased after the SBP allowed exporters to
arrange dollars themselves for importing raw materials required for the
manufacturing of exportable products,” Mr Bostan said.

The dollar appreciated by Rs38.7 or 16.7pc in the interbank market in the
last three sessions against the local currency after the open market removed
the self-imposed rate cap.

Currency dealers expect that exporters may bring back their proceeds since
the dollar rate has risen too high, even beyond their expectations. “They
[exporters] will earn additional billions of rupees just because of this
over 16.7pc devaluation.”

However, some currency experts said dollar holders were reluctant to sell
their holdings amid speculations by some political figures about further
devaluation.

“I believe that remittances from next month will increase with this
appreciation of the dollar. Overseas Pakistanis would now remit their money
through legal channels,” hoped Mr Bostan.

The remittances have been declining for the last three months due to a big
difference in dollar prices. The grey market was offering Rs30 to Rs35 per
dollar over and above interbank and open market rates.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold edges higher, on track for third straight monthly gain

(Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Tuesday, en route to their third
straight month of gains, as the dollar weakened, while market participants
awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision later this week amid hopes
of a less-aggressive rate hike.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $1,925.39 per ounce as of 0257 GMT and was headed for
a monthly gain of more than 5%.

U.S. gold futures were up 0.1% at $1,940.30.

The dollar index was down 0.1% and was set for a fourth straight monthly
drop. A weaker greenback tends to make dollar-priced bullion an attractive
bet.

Traders mostly expect the Fed to scale back rate hikes to 25 basis points
(bps) at its two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday. The U.S. central
bank slowed its tightening pace to 50 bps in December after four straight
75-bp hikes.

"The market is trading in a narrow range ahead of the Fed meet. The gold
market has already priced in a 25 bps hike, if the Fed strikes a dovish
tone, then it will be positive for gold," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia
Commodities, Mumbai.

A low interest-rate environment decreases the opportunity cost of holding
non-yielding bullion.

Top gold consumer China's economic activity swung back to growth in January,
official data showed, after a wave of COVID-19 infections passed through the
country faster than expected following the dismantling of its pandemic
controls.

"With the Chinese economy recovering, physical gold demand in China will
improve. Also, there will be support for other precious metals, which are
industrial in nature," Kedia added.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.4% to $23.67 per ounce, platinum gained 0.1%
at $1,009.76, and palladium inched up 0.4% to $1,635.48. But all three
metals were headed for a monthly decline.

- The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Axia 

EGM to approve the delisting of Axia from the ZSE and listing on VFEX

virtual

February 2 –  (9am)

Robert Mugabe National Youth Day

February 21

Cafca 

AGM

virtual 

February 23  - (12pm)

Ariston 

AGM

Centenary Room, Royal Harare Golf Club

February 24 - 3:30pm

Good Friday

April 7

Easter Saturday

April 8

Easter Sunday

April 9

Easter Monday

April 10

Independence Day

April 18

Workers’ Day

May 1

Africa Day

May 25

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell:
+263 77 344 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29279 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29358 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130933 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230131/54cd0c69/attachment-0001.obj>