Construction and Property Corner ::: 20 July 2023

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Construction and Property  Corner ::: 20 July 2023 

 


 

 


 <https://www.hyundai.co.zw/> 

 


 

 


 

ü  REITs to attract more investors

ü  Karo Update: Construction of 32km power line to begin this quarter

ü  New suburb to tackle Bulawayo housing backlog

ü  President to headline Infrastructure summit

ü  US$400m lifeline for infrastructure development

ü  Inaugural Zim Institutional Investor forum on cards

ü  Liberia: Liberia’s First Plastic Bottle House in Sight

ü  Mnangagwa commissions new Khaya Cement plant, calls for exports

ü  Regulatory reforms needed for Zimbabwe property market 

ü  Cement makers in US$100m upgrades to meet demand

ü  Affordable Housing: Here’s what the Kenyans we polled feel about initiative

ü  Strong US apartment construction suggests slide in rental costs

ü  New Home Construction Cools Slightly in June After Strong May

ü  The only hope for people trying to buy a new home in today's broken housing market

 


 

 


 <https://www.willdale.co.zw/> REITs to attract more investors

THE advent of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) has been described as a unique opportunity for massive growth of the property, insurance and pension fund sector as it has several embedded benefits and has prospects to lure investors.

 

Top of the benefits include investors receiving dividends regularly and taxation matters.

 

This came up during the two-day inaugural REITs conference which ends today in Bulawayo.

 

The initiative aims to bring together industry professionals, stakeholders and investors fostering discussions on the current real estate landscape and exploring investment opportunities.

 

The conference which has brought in experts from different organisations including the Insurance and Pensions Commission (Ipec) and the Securities and Exchange Commission of Zimbabwe is organised by the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE).

 

A REIT is a regulated investment vehicle under the Collective Investment Scheme Act that enables the issuer to pool investors’ funds for the purpose of investing in real estate.

 

In exchange, the investors receive units in the trust, and as beneficiaries of the trust, share in the profits or income from the real estate assets owned by the trust.

 

Ipec commissioner Dr Grace Muradzikwa told Business Chronicle that REITs present several benefits which will culminate in the growth and uptake of real estate investment.

 

She said the association will address challenges that were being faced by pension funds in property investment.

 

“There will be an increase in investments in the property sector even though there are a few areas that we were referring to which include the taxation issues which still need clarification. In the meantime, if we look at the structure of the REITs, it has all the advantages that the investors have been looking for and I am hopeful that the uptake will be good,” said Dr Muradzikwa.

 

“As insurance and pensions regulators this is a development that we have been advocating for mainly coming from the fact that when we look at the portfolios of the pension funds there is a concentration in property and equities. We are finding that with a lot of our processes such as transfer and dissolutions of funds and exits, it was very difficult for the pension funds because they do not have the liquidity that is required.

 

“It is also difficult to transfer real assets, so they were resorting to monetary assets which are prejudicial to policy members and pensioners, that is why we welcomed REITs as we are seeing it as the solution to the challenges that the pension industry was seized with,” she noted.

 

ZSE chief executive officer Mr Justin Bgoni said REITs are a new concept in Zimbabwe set to bring development in the property sector citing that other countries including neighbouring South Africa have already witnessed their positive impact.

 

“The REITS is a new concept and we want people to know about. We want to embark on the process through the form of an association of professionals who then can teach the market,” said Mr Bgoni.

 

“There are some regulations that are required to make this successful, so we need a board of people that can lobby the Government and also we want experts who can teach investors on REITs.”

 

At present, Zimbabwe has one listed REIT on the ZSE, Tigere REIT.

 

The exchange has indicated a pipeline of other REITs set to list on both the ZSE and the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) soon.

 

He said REITs have a benefit for investors because they get their dividends regularly as there are tax benefits for the company.

 

Integrated Properties chief executive officer, Dr Mike Juru said the country has local investors in the property sector but REITs will bring in foreign direct investors.

 

“We can have foreign investments in the properties sector following the introduction of REITS. Look into the South African scenario, they have billions of rands in the sector and that money is not from that country alone but from foreign investors.

 

“So, the same can happen in Zimbabwe and we are looking forward to having proper structures that can help attract foreign direct investment in real estate,” he said. —chronicle

 

 

 

 

Karo Update: Construction of 32km power line to begin this quarter

HARARE – Karo Platinum is set to begin to begin construction of a 32-kilometer power line with a capacity of 132kV that will supply electricity directly and solely to its Selous operations.

The construction will begin this quarter and will be funded by parent Tharisa's equity investment of US$135 million, which is being drawn down to meet capital requirements with cash flow.

The company approved contracts earlier this year for the pouring of foundations for all plants and infrastructure, as well as the building of a 32km high-voltage power line and transformers. The project's long-lead goods have been ordered.

Karo Mining Country Manager Josephat Zimba told FinX: “the power-line project is scheduled to commence within the next few weeks. A dedicated 32km, 132kV line, from Selous to site, will be built by contractors using available funds.”

The mining project is still on track, with the first plant concrete pour finished in June of this year and the pilot mining having begun. The first ore to the mill scheduled for the second half of 2024.

The mine will cost US$391 million to develop. Funding on this is coming from multiple streams which include US$135 million that Tharisa raised, leveraging on existing assets, a syndicated facility of US$260 million and the US$50 million bond, which listed on the VFEX.

Karo Platinum, when completed, is expected to generate up to 194,000 ounces of PGMs per year. Tharisa would thereafter be a 400,000 oz/year PGM producer. Karo would earn a 30.1% return on capital invested and a 26.1% internal rate of return at average PGM 6E prices of US$2,140/oz and costs of US$1,096 per PGM ounce.

The Karo project is also constructing a solar PV facility, which will offer competitive power on the site.  Total Eren and Karo Mining Holdings previously signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) as the first step towards implementing and signing a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) for power delivery.

“Notable progress has been made on the 30MW solar PV plant. As previously mentioned, the land has been identified, and requisite agreements are currently being signed with landowners. Concurrently an Environmental & Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) is underway,” Zimba said.

The solar project will offer low carbon power to the Karo Platinum Mine over its operational life, lowering its carbon footprint and producing a competitive source of electricity supply in Zimbabwe.

The US$4.2 billion project is a low-cost, open pit platinum group metals (PGM) asset being developed on Zimbabwe's mineral-rich Great Dyke belt.

To date, the Karo bond listing on the Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) has raised US$36.8 million on the US$50 million capital raising.  

 

 

 

New suburb to tackle Bulawayo housing backlog

THE Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) is developing an upmarket suburb in Bulawayo which has 114 residential stands ranging from 3 500 to 9 000 square metres in size.

 

The estimated cost of developing the suburb, known as Willsgrove, is US$4,5 million.

 

The latest development is set to help clear the city’s housing backlog which stands at 125 000. Last year, the Bulawayo City Council (BCC) availed more than 1 600 housing stands across the city, meant to be developed as the city upped its housing development strategy in a bid to reduce the housing backlog.

 

The housing backlog in the city has been a cause for concern over the past few years and this has further been exacerbated by a number of private developers that have abandoned their projects leaving the local authority with the task of completing the projects.

 

This has left beneficiaries and the city council at loggerheads after the latter demanded that the former pays for the completion of the projects in cash.

 

Council, thus, awarded a number of stands in the city to private developers following the success of a housing development strategy, where developers submitted expressions of interest and then were required to use their own funds to develop areas of interest.

 

According to a recent BCC report, the local authority is now mandated to enter into a service agreement with the prospective developers.

 

It was stated that developers must not collect or receive any payments from the purchasers before the stands have been fully serviced and any violation of the clause will lead to the cancellation of the agreement.

 

Developers under the clause are required to deduct and remit to council the cost of the intrinsic land value and town planning charges per stand.

 

All developers are also expected to title survey and fully service the stands with roads, sewer, and water, with an environmental impact assessment expected to be carried out and submitted to the Environmental Management Agency for approval before any works were carried out.

 

Council has also outlined 5 390 residential stands in its layout plans in line with the respective master plan and local plans to produce stands to meet demand for the various uses.

 

The master plan has been adopted by council and has gone through public exhibition with a consultant attending to comments received from the public.

 

Government, through the IDBZ, has also completed constructing the massive US$17 million student accommodation complex in Bulawayo.

 

The multi-purpose flats complex dubbed “Bulawayo Students City” and is now ready for occupation, has 516 rooms that are expected to accommodate 1 023 students.

 

Significant strides have been made to address the city’s accommodation challenges with various housing projects being established across the city.

 

In an interview yesterday, IDBZ chief executive officer Mr Thomas Zondo Sakala said the establishment of the suburb is in response to a huge demand for accommodation in the country.

 

“The national waiting list is currently estimated at 1,25 million while Bulawayo’s waiting list stands at 125 000. This project is, therefore, targeted at providing accommodation to one million by 2025,” he said.

 

“IDBZ’s long-term strategy seeks to cater for all and provide at least 5 000 serviced stands with access roads, water, sewer, and electrified stands by 2025.”

 

Mr Sakala said the stands were available to developers at an estimated US$4,5 million cost.

 

“The stands are fully serviced and as we speak, they are at 97 percent completion. They have created employment in the construction industry, reduced the housing waiting list, and provided decent accommodation to at least 114 households,” he said.

 

Last year, Housing and Social Amenities Minister Daniel Garwe unveiled 90 fully serviced stands at Hopelyn Housing Estate near Mahatshula suburb, with more expected. The Hopelyn project is part of the US$11 million national housing scheme that will result in the construction of thousands of low-cost housing units in selected parts of the country.

 

Financial services institution, BancABC, is implementing the Hopelyn project funded by Shelter Afrique, and will benefit home seekers from Bulawayo, Harare, Gweru, Masvingo and Mutare.

 

workers put final touches to a road in Willsgrove suburb along Gwanda road (Picture by Nomthandazo Masuku)

 

Shelter Afrique is a Pan-African banking institution that exclusively supports the development of affordable housing and real estate sector development in Africa.

 

In November 2020, Cabinet adopted the Zimbabwe National Human Settlements Policy (ZNHSP), which was subsequently officially launched by President Mnangagwa last year in September.

 

The ZNHSP, which replaced the National Housing Policy of 2012, addresses several shortcomings inherent in the preceding policy outline as it addresses the housing and social amenities backlog while reducing the rural and urban divide.

 

The policy is in line with Vision 2030 and also dovetails with other regional and international development policies.

 

It integrates the implications of climate change with aspects of rural and urban settlement planning, development and management.

 

The ZNHSP is important as it comes at a critical juncture when the country is in the midst of accelerated development in various sectors.

 

This pace in development means more demand for housing and well-planned settlements that make the ease of doing business achievable. Housing delivery is one of the key National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) pillars.

 

-chronicle

 

 

 

President to headline Infrastructure summit

INFRASTRUCTURE development milestones and gaps are under the spotlight this week as President Mnangagwa is set to engage with economy and policy experts drawn from both the private and public sectors during the 2023 Infrastructure Summit and Expo, which begins here today.

 

Robust infrastructure development is at the heart of the Second Republic’s economic transformation agenda in line with the country’s vision to achieve an upper middle-income status by 2030.

 

The second edition of the Infrastructure Summit and Expo is being hosted by the National Economic Consultative Forum (NECF), the country’s think tank on economic and social policy issues.

 

According to the preliminary event programme from organisers, President Mnangagwa will lead the official opening session tomorrow where he will deliver the keynote address.

 

He will be accompanied by Vice President Dr Constantino Chiwenga while African Development Bank president, Dr Akinwumi Adesina is also expected to attend.

 

Transport and Infrastructural Development Minister, Felix Mhona, will present the transport infrastructure development plan for the attainment of Vision 2030 while Finance and Economic Development permanent secretary, Mr George Guvamatanga is set to lead discussions on funding mechanisms for transport and infrastructure projects.

 

Today’s first session will cover updates from last year’s resolutions with a focus on transport infrastructure projects covering rail, road, and aviation.

 

Key presentations will be drawn from representatives from Zimbabwe National Road Administration, civil aviation experts, Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe, Rural Infrastructure Development Agency, transport operators, senior Government officials, and foreign delegates.

 

In the last five years, President Mnangagwa’s administration has facilitated the implementation of massive infrastructure projects, some of which have already been completed while others are at different stages of completion. The projects have created massive job opportunities and are enhancing economic growth.

 

The high-level event, thus, brings together various players in the country’s infrastructure development sector and comes as the Second Republic is working hard towards economic transformation through developments in key sectors such as mining, roads, agriculture, mining and ICTs.

 

By December 2022, official Government reports indicate that the infrastructure and utilities thematic cluster had recorded the highest milestones with 2 343 projects under implementation, of which 1 866 had been completed and 477 ongoing.

 

Major national infrastructure projects include road rehabilitation, building of new dams, power infrastructure, aviation facility expansion and modernization. The emphasis on infrastructural development is seen as a key enabler to propel socio-economic development for the betterment of the livelihoods of the people of Zimbabwe. chronicle

 

 

 

US$400m lifeline for infrastructure development

THE US$400 million facility the country secured from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) in June offers a lifeline aimed at addressing pressing issues in infrastructure development, trade finance, and foreign currency shortages, Old Mutual Investments Group (OMIG) has said.

 

The facility is a positive development for the country, noted OMIG in its monthly economic brief for June.

 

It is also a major financial boost to the Second Republic’s programmes for the stimulation of economic growth.

 

“Zimbabwe recently secured a US$400 million facility from the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) to boost its economy and facilitate essential developmental projects.

 

“The financial package is expected to play a crucial role in supporting the country’s efforts to address the prevailing economic challenges and promote sustainable growth.

 

“Authorities cited the need for foreign currency resources to augment the measures that the Government has put in place to stabilise and grow the economy.

 

“The Afreximbank facility offers a lifeline aimed at addressing pressing issues such as infrastructure development, trade finance, and foreign currency shortages. Overall, the Afreximbank facility is a positive development for the country,” reads part of the report.

 

Although OMIG said the US$400 million facility might not be sufficient to sustain the stability of the local currency and support long-term growth prospects, it said authorities need to continue implementing measures to build foreign reserves, improve market confidence, and reduce external debt levels for sustained stability and growth.

 

“While the recently secured Afreximbank facility offers a lifeline, sustained economic recovery will require a combination of political stability, comprehensive reforms, and measures to attract foreign investment. Only through proactive and effective policies can the country overcome its economic challenges and achieve sustainable growth,” it noted.

 

The local currency continues to strengthen against the United States dollar both on the official bank rate and the parallel market in response to a cocktail of measures being implemented by the Government.

 

The Zimbabwe dollar was on Tuesday trading at US$1: $4 771 firming from US$1: $4 883 on Friday at the official interbank market.

 

The parallel market is also responding and as of yesterday, the local unit was pegged at US$1: $6 000.

 

The recent strategic interventions by the Government to tame volatility in the market include its directive for all import duties to be paid in Zimbabwe dollars except for luxury items, the transfer of external debt obligations from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) to Treasury and the introduction of the wholesale foreign currency auction for banks.

 

Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ)

 

The Treasury has also directed all Government institutions to collect fees and other service charges in local currency. The Government continues to urge businesses to use the official exchange rates with a recommended 10 percent margin.-chronicle

 

 

 

 

Inaugural Zim Institutional Investor forum on cards

MNC Capital Group will next week host the inaugural Zimbabwe Institutional Investor Forum in Harare to present various investment opportunities in the country to local and foreign investors.

 

To be held on Wednesday and Thursday at the Rainbow Towers, the forum will bring together various institutional investors including pension funds and insurance firms.

 

Institutional investors are entities that pool money from various investors and individuals and invest in various portfolios of assets such as shares, and securities,

 

“The forum is designed to zoom in on the state of the economy in order for the participants to learn of the issues impacting the economy and also get an opportunity to map the best way forward,” said MNC Capital.

 

MNC Capital said Zimbabwe was a unique investment destination with its own challenges, opportunities, and threats.

 

As such, it said it was important, especially for the benefit of institutional investors, both local and international–to have access to realistic data as far as the state of the economy is concerned.

 

“This forum features interactive sessions that allow participants to actively take part in the proceedings and will feature keynote presentations, panel discussions, networking sessions, and one-on-one meetings (pre-arranged on request),” said MNC.

 

It said to gain access to updated country-specific data was critical through participation in stakeholder engagements that were carefully curated to allow maximum interaction.

 

The organisers said in the post-pandemic world, local, provincial and national Governments across the world were intensifying economic recovery and development efforts to significantly reduce socio-economic challenges caused by the pandemic.

 

“This presents new investment opportunities for institutional investors that will enable them to reach their financial return targets while generating social impact.

 

“It has become evident that the work ahead will require collective efforts from both the public and private sectors, and this calls for policy amendments to ensure ease of doing business, in an effort to attract private sector involvement in the economic recovery strategies.

 

“It is therefore very crucial for the key representatives from both sectors to participate in stakeholder engagements that avail opportunities to engage on issues affecting and impacting the economy of the country.

 

Some of the topics that would be discussed during the forum include strategies for economic growth and development in Zimbabwe, why institutional investors must rethink the risk perceptions in Africa, the state, and the role of institutional investment in the state of Zimbabwe’s investment funds, challenges, and opportunities.-herald

 

 

Mnangagwa commissions new Khaya Cement plant, calls for exports

PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa Thursday commissioned a new million dollar plant at Khaya Cement Limited (formerly Lafarge Cement Zimbabwe) amid calls for the company to adopt exports-led growth strategy.

 

The new Vertical Cement Mill (VCM) will boost the company’s milling capacity to one million tons and bolstered its ability to supply high-strength cement of improved quality at a lower cost.

 

The mill’s installation also marks the final phase of a US$25m investment plan that started in 2019.

 

In remarks to officially commission the VCM, Mnangagwa expressed gratitude from the investors’ show of confidence.

 

“The show of confidence in our economy by Khaya Cement is welcome. I commend the consortium for injecting about US$14 million to operationalize the plant. Your commitment to ensure sustainable exploitation, beneficiation and value addition of the limestone rock is in sync with my government’s exhortations,” he said.

 

He said such a gesture is augmented by the adoption of new technologies for increasing production efficiencies , with the potential to raise the company’s cement production capacity from 350 000 to 1 million tons per annum , against an average national demand of 1,4 million tons.

 

Khayah Cement Limited was challenged to broaden the production capacities in order   to meet the marketing and sales mix for a broader footprint on the local , regional and international markets .

 

“Your cross cutting nature and importance in the overall growth and modernization of our country should not be taken lightly.

 

“Act locally and think globally. In this regard, I exhort Khaya Cement Limited to also pursue a robust export led growth strategy.

 

“The enlarged market within our region and under the Africa Continental Free Trade Area must be fully explored. The broader market allows free movement of goods, services and investments as well as cross border trade and financial integration across our beloved mother continent, Africa,” he said.

 

He added that It is equally important that such flagship investments need to drive productivity growth, create more jobs and propel import substitution, ultimately contributing to the growth of our GDP .newzim

 

 

 

Regulatory reforms needed for Zimbabwe property market   

MARKET failure erupts when the market is left in the hands of an invisible hand. Government plays a role as a central authority to enforce fair play and protect the customers. It is the role of a responsible Government to protect its citizens from the jaws of business bears and crocodiles. Without exception, the property industry or market of Zimbabwe requires new, fresh and progressive regulatory reforms. 

 

The current regulations are not in line with Vision 2030, they are retrogressive. The property risk has risen and poses a serious threat to investment, growth and development of a nation.    

 

The current regulatory system is blurry, vague and unclear, thereby giving room to criminals to masquerade as property agencies or sellers. Several complaints of wrong sales, untitled properties, unregistered agencies, fake property marketing, rent seeking pricing and speculative tendencies have been the order of the day in the Zimbabwean property market.

 

In order to achieve a prosperous Zimbabwe, citizens (domestic investors), should be protected at all costs. A reputable, accountable, responsible and legal mandated regulatory body should be established or the current one should be reformed.

 

Registration of estate agencies 

 

Estate agents should be professionally trained and qualified with an accredited qualification (certificate in property selling). The course can be a six months course that should entail property marketing, customer care, negotiation skills, property law, introduction to property finance and compliance.

 

The above modules will help our estate agencies to be able to professionally manage and conclude a property deal and satisfy both parties.

 

Registration of property conveyances and notaries

 

The current framework involves lawyers to help draft contracts and facilitate the legal framework of the property transfer. There is a need to introduce a certification of lawyers who can carry the responsibility of enabling a property transfer of ownership and conveyancing 

 

λ To avoid bogus deal conclusion, conveyances will help with any type of purchase or sale of property, process of property transfer and holding the money paid till the tittle deeds are transferred to the new owner. A six months course also can be introduced to cover property law, conveyancing etc to interested lawyers who want to pursue a career in property law.

 

Offering property clearing certificates

 

There are several properties with unsolvable issues pertaining to lack of regulatory guidelines in acquiring a property. It has even extended to rural or traditional leaders selling land without the adequate paperwork, enforced urbanisation in the rural areas and so on. In our approach to resolve this, it is advisable that every property sale should be accompanied by a property clearance certificate. Meaning that there is a need for empowering the regulatory body with a property disputes and resolution committee that shall assist in properties with unresolved issues.

 

A property clearance certificate will assist in ensuring that the property is eligible to be sold and it is in good standing for effecting a sale .

 

Enforcing regulations

 

The regulatory body should have the capacity to enforce property law and compliance in the property industry and Zimbabwe at large. The inspectorate unit should be given the mandate to inspect the market compliance on all platforms where the marketing, advertising and selling is being conducted by the players in the market. This will help to root out fraudulent property developers, agencies and owners that are flooding the market on a daily basis.

 

Registration of property developers

 

The current property regime has opened doors for corrupt, unethical, rent seeking and speculative business scavengers with the help of some elements in our local authorities unscrupulously making money from selling undeveloped land to desperate Zimbabweans. This should come to an end with immediate effect. The land is being sold at exorbitant and unfair prices to consumers.

 

Guidelines on property sale processes

 

The current market is so unethical such that a seller can decide to pull out of the deal without notice or because of a better offer. It is more of an auction system that still puts the consumers at risk of losing their property deposit or agency fees . There should be a specified time, where the seller or buyer cannot easily or willy-nilly march out of the deal. Failure to offer guidelines will continue breeding corruption,  theft and abuse of consumers.

 

In conclusion, there is no economy that will grow by hurting and choking off the local investment (domestic investment). The Second Republic needs to prioritise this sector and help enable an efficient, smart, and professional property market. Housing sales are part of consumption and they are long term. They can be viewed as an investment which propels economic growth and helps alleviate poverty in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the property market cannot be allowed to be so informal, unprofessional unethical and corrupt. Neglecting the market will cripple the economy and continuously breed derivatives of corruption and speculation tendencies.

 

As researchers and financial experts, we have developed a keen interest in providing a one stop solution to this problem. Our solution will eradicate the current property risk, fraud, disinvestment in properties and speculative tendencies.-chronicle

 

 

 

 

Cement makers in US$100m upgrades to meet demand

ZIMBABWE’s cement manufacturers have invested more than US$100 million toward plant and equipment upgrades over the last four years amid the strong demand driven by the massive infrastructure development projects countrywide.

 

The construction industry enjoyed a boom since the incumbent Government came into power and initiated several mega infrastructure projects such as dams, roads, housing, power, education and public administration facilities, among others.

 

Demand for cement has benefited from individual home development projects characterising every part of the country.

 

Under the five-year economic blueprint, the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS 1), launched in 2021, the Government among others, has prioritised infrastructure development as a key strategy for the achievement of an upper middle-income society by 2030.

 

Against this background, some of the infrastructure implemented in Zimbabwe over the last four years include the multimillion-dollar Lake Gwayi-Shangani project in Matabeleland North province, the upgrading of the Harare-Beitbridge highway, the US$1,5 billion Hwange Thermal Power Station expansion programme, and the various national housing development programmes.

 

Investments in housing dovetail with the Second Republic’s ambition to rebuild the economy and improve the living standards of citizens through the delivery of 250 000 housing units under NDS 1.

 

To move with speed in championing the national development agenda, the Government has also engaged the private sector on some of the projects under the Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) initiative.

 

Speaking at the 2022 Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) annual manufacturing sector survey results launched in Harare last week, cement manufacturers who were represented by Khayah (formerly Lafarge Zimbabwe) chief executive officer Mr Innocent Chikwata said: “As Khayah, in the last four years we have invested more than US$25 million and I know as an industry including other cement manufacturers, I think we are in excess of US$100 million that we have invested in plant and equipment upgrade.

 

“We are happy that there have been infrastructure expansion projects across the country and we are beneficiaries of those expansion programmes because every time projects come up, we have an opportunity to move more and more of our products.

 

“That confidence also makes us not doubt the decision that we made to invest (in plant and equipment upgrade).”

 

Pretoria Portland Cement (PPC) Zimbabwe and Khayah account for 70 percent of the domestic market share.

 

Zimbabwe has capacity to produce 2,6 million tonnes of cement annually against a national demand of between 1,5 and 1,6 million tonnes.

 

Mr Chikwata said after Khayah adopted the latest technology for its factory in recent years, it was now enjoying economies of scale, which have seen it reducing the price of cement from US$10,35 per 50-kilogramme bag in 2017 to less than US$9 presently.

 

“When I joined Khayah Cement in 2017, a bag of cement was costing US$10,35, today you can purchase a bag of cement from us for under US$9. . . that’s just the amount of work we have been able to do to sharpen our pencils in terms of innovation, we are very much innovation-driven with the machinery that we now have. And we are trying to bring in machinery that uses less energy but is more efficient. We also continue to innovate around the actual product to make it a better product ,but produced at a better price,” he said.

 

As Khayah, Mr Chikwata said, their cost drivers centred mainly around energy and fuel used to facilitate industrial operations and transportation of the product across the country by road using haulage trucks.

 

Due to the prevailing depressed power supply situation in the country, he said his organisation had not been spared as the cement producer was losing between 9 and 10 hours per day due to power outages.

 

“Currently, the equipment that we have is so sensitive every time there is a voltage spark or a dip, it strips or switches off the plant and our plants use an hour and half to 2 hours every time we have a power outage and that’s the biggest challenge we are faced with today.

 

“Of course, we have engaged the authorities through our parent industry and I am very happy that our honourable Minister of Industry and Commerce Dr Sekai Nzenza has actually been helping us engage the power suppliers,” he said. Just like what some players in the private sector have done, Khayah is also planning to adopt renewable energy sources to address the power situation at its factory. Zimbabwe requires about 2 200MW at peak demand, but because of low water levels at Kariba Power Station as well as depressed generation at Hwange Power Station, the country is producing an average of less than 1 000MW.

 

According to the Zimbabwe Power Company, as of yesterday, the State power utility was producing 744MW from its plants.

 

Despite the prevailing power situation, in November last year, Zesa indicated that it was confident the 3 500MW required by 2025 would be achieved as mining and industrial sectors had submitted applications for electricity generation aggregating to 2 300MW. Under NDS 1, Zimbabwe needs 3 500MW by 2025 while a total of 11 000MW would be required by 2030.-herald

 

 

 

 

Liberia: Liberia’s First Plastic Bottle House in Sight

--- The answer to this question lies in the hands of the YMCA, which has begun collecting thousands of plastic bottles to what would be the country's first plastic bottle house -- effectively transforming them into a resource -- rather than a pollutant.

 

Imagine walking around Montserrado County and seeing people living in houses made of plastic bottles. 

 

The concept might appear rather bizarre, but, for the YMCA, it could be a breakthrough solution for Liberia on multiple levels. 

 

 

“Our country is facing a dual challenge: inadequate housing for many of our citizens and the disastrous impact of plastic pollution,” says Ebenezer Saah Davies, YMCA National Youth Council President.   “The project we are about to embark on is to pioneer a solution that addresses both issues simultaneously.”

 

The ingenious idea involves repurposing plastic bottles, an often overlooked and abundant waste material, as a substitute for traditional building materials. 

 

Understanding the potential of these discarded bottles, the YMCA, a Christian-led organization committed to social development, has begun collecting thousands of plastic bottles to be meticulously cleaned and sorted according to size — effectively transforming them into a resource rather than a pollutant.

 

The target, according to Davies, is 50,000 bottles. So far, nearly half have been collected, and are being packed with sand, which would then be turned into eco-bricks. 

 

 

They would be laid horizontally, one on top of the other, and bound together to create a solid building unit that possesses excellent insulating properties. 

 

These eco-friendly "bottle bricks" would be secured together with mud or cement, assisting in creating sturdy walls that can withstand the elements.

 

“One of the primary objectives of the initiative is to showcase the economic and environmental benefits of utilizing plastic waste in construction.

 

“Traditional building materials contribute significantly to carbon emissions and resource depletion. The ambitious project to shine a light on sustainable living and provide a blueprint for a cleaner, greener future while combat Liberia's ever-growing environmental crisis head-on,” Davies says. 

 

 

Plastic pollution has become a global crisis, with devastating impacts on ecosystems, and Liberia, like many other countries, faces significant challenges in managing plastic waste. 

 

With limited recycling infrastructure and limited public awareness, the issue continues to escalate, posing severe threats to the environment and public health.

 

But the concept of using discarded plastic bottles to build homes as a means of tackling plastic pollution was first introduced by the pioneering work of Andreas Froese, a German environmental activist. 

 

Motivated by the desire to address both the housing shortage and plastic pollution, he developed this innovative solution to transform waste into livable spaces. 

 

The idea however took off in India, and South and Central America and had been applied since to provide a cost-effective, environmentally-friendly alternative to conventional building bricks.

 

 

And in 2011, a Nigerian named Yahaya Ahmed of the Nigeria Development Association for Renewable Energies built West Africa's first “plastic bottle house” in the village of Yelwa, Kaduna State, which went on to become a tourist attraction.

 

Ahmed, according to the BBC, estimated that a bottle house cost one-third of what a similar house made of concrete and bricks would cost and it is also more durable. 

 

The three-room house, which contained a  toilet and a kitchen, needed more than 10K sand-filled plastic bottles to be built.  

 

And for Liberia, the YMCA, which believes that a compacted sand bottle house is stronger than bricks, is intended to construct the country's first-of-its-kind house in Camp Todee, Todee District, rural Montserrado. 

 

The house, which is expected to be a two-bedroom and contains a palaver hut, will help YMCA overcome limited lodging facilities at its rural camp for activities. 

 

“Bottle houses are also ideally suited to Liberia because of the hot weather as the sand insulates them from the sun's heat, helping to keep room temperatures low,” says Davies. “And because of the compact sand, they are bullet-proof — which may also prove even more attractive in more insecure parts of the north.”

 

However, the proposed house, whose environmental benefit is immense, still needs a concrete foundation laid to ensure that the structure is firm and stable.

 

According to experts, to build with plastic bottles, sand needs to be sieved to remove the stones otherwise it will not be nice and it would not be able to pass through the mouth of the bottle.

 

 

“Beyond the environmental benefits, bottle houses offer numerous advantages,” Davies argued. “It ensures affordability, creating an accessible housing solution for the economically disadvantaged. 

 

“And the insulation improves indoor temperatures, alleviating the need for excessive cooling or heating, thereby reducing energy consumption,” he added.

 

While Liberia generates a significant amount of plastic bottle waste annually, even though most water in Liberia is sold in small plastic bags, the YMCA's ambitious project has been met with curiosity and skepticism, though experts assert that the ideal has been proven to be realistic. 

 

One of the primary challenges the project faces is the need to ensure the plastic's quality and strength in constructing the house. 

 

The YMCA, according to Davies, is mindful of this and would work with experienced engineers and architects, and environmental experts to guarantee a safe, secure, and sustainable structure.

 

“The YMCA's plastic house project seeks to provide a sustainable and cost-effective solution that can be replicated and scaled up to address the country's housing challenges. Liberia, like many developing nations, faces a shortage of adequate housing, particularly for low-income communities. 

 

“The house's design will incorporate innovative techniques, demonstrating the feasibility of plastic-based construction while raising awareness about the benefits of recycling and responsible waste management,” Davies noted.-liberianobserver

 

 

 

 

Affordable Housing: Here’s what the Kenyans we polled feel about initiative

The quest for affordable housing has been a running theme in Kenya’s successive governments. President Mwai Kibaki’s administration is remembered for the Slum Upgrading Project; President Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration is remembered for the plan to offload 500,000 housing units into the market in five years, and now President William Ruto’s government targets to push mortgages downstream to the ordinary citizen and grow their number from the present 30,000 to 1.0 million over the next five years.

 

 

Over the years, a lot has been promised, but is the target buyer happy?

 

DN2 Property sought to understand what the target buyer thinks about Affordable Housing through presenting a questionnaire on Affordable Housing to 65 respondents. In this feature, we tell you what these people think about the plan, their most popular sources of information on this topic, the age bracket interested in Affordable Housing, what they believe are mistakes the government is making in the implementation, and ultimately, what the buyer wants. But first, let us sample of few of the most outstanding opinions.

 

“Generally speaking, the affordable housing plan is good as it will ensure Kenyans are prompted to not only start thinking about, but also saving towards home ownership from an early age. As it stands, most people (based on observation of the older generations), postpone home ownership until later in life as they approach retirement. They then end up spending most, if not all their pension funds building their retirement homes, thus leaving them with no income to survive on, post-retirement. But this is changing.

 

The biggest problem with the government's approach to affordable housing was assuming that all Kenyans don't have a home ownership plan and thus introduced a compulsory housing levy to fund. Notably, the deduction is counter-intuitive to those already making mortgage payments or those in the process of building their home, as it takes away much needed cash for these purposes. It would be more prudent for the government to come up with a strategy that factors in where individual Kenyans are at, in their home ownership journeys, and incentivise those actively building or buying.

 

 

One of the ways the government can tailor the affordable housing plan to work for me and other people looking to own homes outside of the current available units would involve extending benefits to individual potential homeowners as well as investors and contractors involved in the affordable housing scheme. More developers should get land to put up affordable houses to sell at highly subsidised rates, statutory processes can be fast tracked, and infrastructure costs subsidised among many other benefits. I would be highly motivated to fast track my home ownership journey if I am incentivised through lower cost of building materials, getting tax breaks if I am already building a home, faster statutory approvals at county level as well as less bureaucracy in the building journey. For a long time SACCOs have been homeownership vehicles, as they invest in land and construction projects which they sell to their members, is it possible to extend similar benefits to these financial institutions to ensure the members purchase these properties at lower costs?

 

Mulang'o Baraza, Writer and Historian

 

The Affordable Housing scheme does not seem to have a clear implementation plan. Its implementation is almost entirely contingent upon tax-based funding, and the latest frontier could not have come at a worse time. Inflation rates are unbearably high. The economy, long battered by the Covid-19 pandemic, and now blighted by the chokehold of increased taxation, can't support Affordable Housing. And the people, barely scraping by, seemingly believe it shouldn't be at the forefront of government's priority list. As expected, the new Finance Bill 2023, which is partly the operational blueprint of the Affordable Housing scheme, has since elicited, largely, disapprobation from the public.

 

 

Read: Employers to be given time to match housing deductions

 

Kenya has obviously made several mistakes in the Affordable Housing scheme. Firstly, the State has long under-communicated the plan to an otherwise cynical and sceptical public. While the plan may be in line with a universally agreed endeavour to deliver the rest of humankind from squalid living conditions, the Kenyan State hasn't taken the trouble to explain to its people why and how it's about them. Or why it should come at a cost to the taxpayer. It has not sufficiently addressed concerns about the plan not being realistic - and convenient - for everyone. One of the practical challenges of the plan's feasibility is the fact that many Kenyans feel bludgeoned into wanting and accepting it. Some have suggested - while opposing the scheme - that the State's decision to make deductions into the National Housing Development Fund mandatory makes it a tax, and therefore a ruse merely meant to help augment government revenue (disguised as a charitable endeavour).

 

Moving forward, the government should focus on making the economy work for everyone first. This would, in effect, enhance the people's capacity to comfortably contribute towards the scheme. If possible, the State should shelve the Affordable Housing scheme as the prevailing economic circumstances don't favour neither its implementation nor attainability.

 

Ruth Tanui, Property Advocate, Managing Partner, Ruth Tanui and Co. Advocates

 

Many people still opt for the incremental path of owning homes (buying land and gradually constructing a family house). Perhaps the government should focus more on cleaning up loopholes in the Land and Housing Sectors. Such a clean-up would undoubtedly make home ownership more affordable.

 

 

The first thorny issue is the digitization of land transactions to make everything accessible online. The government has started this process in Nairobi, but it is slow and not fully effective. Additionally, if land registries could provide all the information when one conducts a search, some of the title issues would be avoided. Unfortunately, when there is an ongoing case in court relating to a given property being fraudulently acquired, when you conduct a search, you will not get such information, unless there is an injunction. As a result, many people end up with properties that have title issues. In the end, some people end up buying property more than once, making the homeownership process more expensive than it should be.

 

Read: Hinga: How housing levy will help workers benefit at the expense of employers

 

We also have several loopholes in the law that make it easy for criminals to thrive in the property industry. If these loopholes are sealed, property acquisition will automatically be less costly. For instance, the requirements for forming a real estate company do not place significant barriers to entry and there are no vetting processes. Anyone can form a land-selling company today and fix their prices subjectively. Even when the company directors are involved in fraud, they just close the company, form another one and mint more millions through conning people. We need stringent laws to regulate Real estate companies' and serious penalties for those found committing land and property fraud. Currently, land related crimes, like fraudulent transfer of property or forging documents such as title deeds under the penal code are considered misdemeanours, meaning a person is given a small fine or serves at least a year in prison if found guilty.

 

 

Perhaps the Directorate of Criminal Investigations should consider introducing land fraud units within their branches all over the country and digitally list the names of all companies or individuals found selling properties illegally. This way people will have a trustworthy reference point before handing over their money.

 

65 more respondents

The above-mentioned questionnaire was presented to multiple respondents to fill online independently and remotely, and it had nine key questions touching on various aspects of Affordable Housing. 65 individuals submitted their responses, and this is what the data revealed:

 

Though the questionnaire was presented to multiple age groups, 26-40 years olds were the most interested in Affordable Housing as they make up 76.9 per cent of the respondents. Those above 50 were the least interested as they make up only 3.1 per cent. Age groups 40-50 and 20-25 expressed medium interest and their responses accounted for 9.2 per cent and 10.8 per cent, respectively.

 

It would then, be safe to assume that people within the 26 to 40 age brackets are the most critical target market for Affordable Housing as they are just getting settled or fully settled in their careers and actively working toward owning a home. Those in their 40s and 50s are likely to be in advanced stages of their homeownership journey. Further, employed people accounted for 52.3 per cent of the respondents while the rest were either self-employed (27.7 per cent) or unemployed (20.0 per cent).

 

 

Another important factor the questionnaire sought to establish was how knowledgeable the target buyer is on matters Affordable Housing and from where do they get their information. Question number three on the questionnaire required the respondents to disclose their level of understanding when it comes to the Affordable Housing Plan. They were to use a scale with numbers 1 to 5 to gauge their knowledge, number one on the scale being “barely knowledgeable” and number 5 being “very knowledgeable”. 36.9 per cent chose number 3 which indicates medium knowledgeability. Number 5, the highest on the scale, was the second most picked option with 26.2 per cent picks followed by number 4, which was picked by 23.1 per cent of the respondents. Option 1 on the scale which indicates "barely knowledgeable" had some significant picks at 9.2 per cent.

 

On the most popular sources of information, respondents were allowed to pick several media. Mainstream media took the lead at 69.2%. Social media proved to be a worthy competitor at 63.1 per cent while personal research came in third at 47.7 per cent. The fact that the respondents use personal research to learn more about affordable housing shows that there is genuine interest in the scheme. Friends and Family, Events and Public Forums and Adverts almost tied with 30.8 per cent, 29.2 per cent and 24.6 per cent, respectively.

 

The most pertinent issue was, and remains, whether the units sold under this plan are affordable enough - 47.7 per cent of respondents picked the options "No" in response to the question "Do you think the units sold under this plan have been affordable enough?". Only 26.2 per cent thought the units were affordable while the rest, (another 26.2 per cent) said "they were not sure".

 

This question was followed-up by another open-ended question for those who did not think the units were affordable. They were to share their thoughts on how the units should be priced to make them truly affordable. This follow-up question received mixed reactions.

 

There were varied responses, from Sh300,000 to Sh2.5 million for a 1-bedroom unit, all the way to Sh10.0 million for a 3-bedroom unit. However “Sh1.0 million” seemed to be a popular response for 1 bedroom unit and Sh2.0 million for 2-bedroom units. A few respondents (seemingly more knowledgeable) talked about factors such as location, amenities and size as important price determining factors.

 

Finally, there were two more open-ended questions. The first one was on the mistakes the implementers have made and the second was on what the government can do to make Affordable Housing work for the respondents. As one may imagine, the respondents had plenty to say regarding these two questions. We mapped out the key areas of concern as outlined under "the most common issues raised" and picked some of the most outstanding opinions on areas that need to be improved.

 

Overall, the questionnaire is just but a small window through which we got to understand how the public feels about Affordable Housing. The enthusiastic responses, even on the optional and open-ended questions prove that Kenyans are ready to be engaged on the matter. However, there is a strong need for systems and channels that ensure the public's voice is not muffled by the noise. In the end, everyone wants an affordable home, meaning all the stakeholders are on the same team. Why not communicate effectively more often?-nation

 

 

 

 

Strong US apartment construction suggests slide in rental costs

(Reuters) - A surge in U.S. rental home construction could soften rent prices in the months ahead, a much-awaited milestone in the Federal Reserve's effort to tame inflation even as tightening credit conditions are beginning to take the wind out of the apartment building boom.

 

Groundbreaking on multifamily homes that have more than five units - a size that typically indicates apartment construction - decreased by 11.6% to 482,000 in June from a revised 545,000 starts in May, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank have made it more expensive to finance large-scale construction projects, and permits issued for new multifamily projects dropped last month to the lowest level since late 2020.

 

Despite the slowdown, the government data showed that more buildings are already on the way: Another 977,000 were already under construction last month, a fresh record high. Meanwhile, there were also 476,000 apartment buildings that completed construction throughout June, down from a three-decade peak in February 2023, but still historically high.

 

The apartment building boom - led regionally by the U.S. South and West - is starting to alleviate a rental housing shortage that has sent rent costs spiraling in the last two years and may at last place downward pressure on rent prices.

 

Indeed, the gap between the number of multifamily units under construction versus single-family homes being built is the widest in nearly 50 years.

 

For Fed policymakers, it may also serve as an important indication that their 500 basis points worth of interest rate hikes could be effectively cooling the rental market, even if the monthly consumer price index (CPI) figures haven't registered the most recent trends.

 

"The current housing market is best described as a tale of two economies," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "High borrowing costs weigh heavily on the first-time home buyer looking to get into a single-family home. However, construction activity in multi-family projects foreshadows the coming decline in rent prices as more units become available on the market."

 

Rent prices soared by more than 8% on a year-over-year basis in June, contributing 70% of the upward pressure on overall inflation, even as drops in other goods and services pulled the CPI down to the smallest annual increase in more than two years at 3%, the Labor Department said in its CPI report last week. But more recent data supports the idea that inflationary pressure from rent may be tapering off.

 

Real estate firm Zillow reported a 4.1% annual increase in rent prices for June, on par with historic averages before the coronavirus pandemic.

 

At the same time, real estate analytics company CoStar Group reported a 10-basis-point increase in the national apartment vacancy rate to 6.8% last month, highlighting an improvement in rental stock that could drive down prices if it continues to outpace demand for new leases.

 

"What we're seeing in our rent data today is that rent is still going to ... have significant downward pressure on CPI over at least the next two to three quarters," said Jay Lybik, the national director of multifamily research at CoStar.

 

In contrast to June's softening building numbers, sentiment in the rate-sensitive building sector has continued to improve - indicating the recent flurry of construction could be durable, despite relatively tight credit conditions and high mortgage rates. With most Fed officials supporting only one or two more quarter-percentage-point rate hikes ahead of next week's policy meeting, builder confidence hit the highest levels since June 2022, according to a report published by the National Association of Home Builders on Tuesday.

 

REGIONAL DIVIDE

The deceleration in rent prices is not uniform across the country.

 

Some cities in the Northeast and Midwest experienced rent increases - a jump of 7% on an annual basis in Boston and 6.8% in Cincinnati in June, according to Zillow. Others in the South and West, however, have seen rent prices decrease on a year-over-year basis - Las Vegas and Austin, Texas, saw them fall 1.8% and 0.8%, respectively.

 

Reuters Graphics

Economists say that this divergence can be traced back to differences in building activity across the country. Indeed, the number of non-single family home construction projects underway but not completed in the South and West combined is at a record 724,000, nearly three times the volume in the Northeast and Midwest.

 

"The markets where we're seeing very low rent growth are the markets that are building more," said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.

 

 

 

 

New Home Construction Cools Slightly in June After Strong May

The new home market took a breather in June after a red-hot May, according to a report from the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development on Wednesday.

 

The 8% drop in housing starts to an annual level of 1.43 million was a little below estimates of 1.49 million, but followed a strong May that was revised downward to 1.56 million from its prior level of 1.63 million.

 

Permits for new construction slipped 3.7% from May’s revised 1.5 million reading that was up very slightly from the prior estimate.

 

Together, the numbers show new homes continue to be built at a steady pace in the face of high mortgage rates and an overall lack of supply of housing for sale.

 

“Demand for homes remains high from millennials, though as boomers move into their retirement years many are moving and often have the benefit of significant home equity,” said Kelly Mangold of RCLCO Real Estate Consulting.

 

The report comes a day after the National Association of Home Builders released its monthly survey showing confidence among builders rose by 1 point in June, marking the seventh consecutive increase and the highest level since a year ago.

 

New home construction is benefiting from a lack of existing homes for sale, as homeowners with low mortgage rates are opting not to put their properties on the market.

 

“The lack of resale inventory means prospective home buyers who have not been priced out of the market continue to seek out new construction in greater numbers,” said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder in Birmingham, Alabama. “At the same time, builders are troubled over rising mortgage rates approaching 7% and continue to grapple with supply-side challenges, including ongoing scarcity of electrical transformer equipment and growing concerns about lot availability.”

 

Indeed, the rise in mortgage rates that has occurred as a result of the aggressive tightening of interest rates by the Federal Reserve has made buying a home much more expensive than in 2022.

 

“There remains pent-up demand in the housing market, but higher rates put a strain on affordability,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at title insurer First American. “According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.67 percent in the week ending June 22nd. By the week ending July 13th, rates had drifted to approximately 7 percent. Holding household income constant, the increase in mortgage rates reduced house-buying power by approximately $10,000.”

 

George Ratiu, chief economist at Keeping Current Matters, a real estate data firm, warned that builders could be facing headwinds in the months to come.

 

“As we look to the second half of 2023, we can expect a more moderate stream of new homes,” Ratiu said. “For homebuilders, construction costs remain under pressure, as slowing Canadian lumber shipments are pushing prices higher. With massive timber losses due to wildfires in Canada this season weighing on markets, the price of lumber has risen from $428 in mid-May to $580 per thousand board feet this week.”

 

Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said of Wednesday’s report: “While new construction will not immediately solve the supply problem in the housing market, the recovery in the homebuilding industry and the delivery of more new homes is essential for meeting the nation’s housing needs and easing housing affordability challenges for prospective home buyers.”-usnews

 

 

 

 

 

The only hope for people trying to buy a new home in today's broken housing market

Newly constructed houses shine brightly on a grassy field, which a line of eager homebuyers filing at the bottom of the hill, for a chance to snatch this housing from this new construction boom. The sky in the background is a greenish purple.

 

Prospective homebuyers — especially those trying to purchase a home for the first time — are trapped. People who already own a home aren't selling, mortgage rates are staying high, and competition for the few homes on the market remains stiff. Finding a warm place to lay your head in the middle of the housing market's Ice Age is proving difficult. 

 

But there may be one last hope for salvation for these hard-pressed homebuyers: brand-spanking new houses. Recent data shows that the number of groundbreakings is shooting up, and there are other signs that more homes could be on the way: Builders are selling houses at a faster clip and feeling optimistic again, surveys show, which is typically an indication that they're going to start laying more foundations. And for renters, the historic number of newly built apartments on the horizon could start to bring down rents.  

 

With many homeowners reluctant to move, buyers are going to become increasingly reliant on new construction. Not only are builders offering an alternative to the sluggish market for existing homes — it's clear that they're motivated to get newly built homes sold at a good price. Many builders are even dangling perks like cheaper loans or other discounts to ease the pain of higher mortgage rates. For some wannabe buyers, one economist told me, new construction represents "the only game in town."

 

 

The contours of this building boom are still fuzzy since experts are eagerly awaiting more data and builders continue to battle higher borrowing rates as well as a labor shortage. Homebuilding is typically a cyclical industry, following the ups and downs of the broader housing market. The pain of the Great Recession continues to loom large in the minds of builders, and new construction plummeted when the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates last spring. But the tide appears to be turning again, as would-be sellers hunker down and buyers expand their searches beyond the existing pool of homes. If builders continue to gain confidence, this could mark an inflection point in the long-running battle against America's housing shortage. 

 

Building boom

When the Census released its May update on new home construction late last month, the results shocked even the most dedicated housing prognosticators. Construction of new homes shot up dramatically to an annual pace of 1.56 million units, a 16% increase from the month before and well above the -0.1% drop that economists forecasted. It was also the highest number of new foundations laid since June 2022, when rising mortgage rates were starting to slow the market. The increase included month-over-month jumps for single-family homes, which were up 18.7% to an annual rate of slightly more than 1 million, and multifamily homes, which were up 11.5% in the same period. Sales of newly built homes in May also reached an annual pace of 763,000, about 12% above the April rate and up 20% from a year ago.

 

"It was a huge surprise, from my perspective, on both housing starts and new home sales," Richard de Chazal, the macro analyst at William Blair, told me. "That activity, I thought, was going to continue to be weaker."

 

Typically, sales of both existing and newly constructed homes tend to move in the same direction, de Chazal told me. But the shock of higher mortgage rates and the vast disruptions during the pandemic have sent the two sales figures diverging, bucking that trend. In May, pending sales of existing homes were down 2.7% from the prior month and a whopping 22% below a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. And in June, roughly 26% fewer properties hit the market compared to last year, Realtor.com noted. New construction, on the other hand, accounted for nearly a third of all active listings in May, up from 16% in the same month in 2019, according to Redfin. And sales of new homes have been on the upswing for seven straight months after bottoming out last fall, according to a survey of production homebuilders by John Burns Research and Consulting, a housing research and advisory firm. In fact, those builders averaged 23% more sales last month than the June average from 2013 to 2019, more normal years for housing.  

 

 

The divergence in home sales is a symptom of stubbornly high mortgage rates, which have more than doubled over the past 1 ½ years. With the average rate for a 30-year mortgage sitting near 7%, homeowners who bought their current houses before 2022 have little incentive to move, since that would force them to give up their historically low rates that guarantee them manageable payments for decades to come. Roughly 85% of mortgage holders at the end of May had an interest rate of 5% or lower, and about half had a rate of 3.5% or lower, according to Black Knight, a provider of mortgage technology and data.

 

"The existing-home market is frozen, and anyone who wants to buy a home is now forced to basically go to the new home market to get that supply," de Chazal told me. "So that's why I think you're seeing new-home sales moving up and existing-home sales that are still pretty weak."

 

Of course, people will always move for reasons that have nothing to do with mortgage rates. But the current dearth of sellers carries "obvious benefits" for homebuilders, Mike Simonsen, the president of Altos Research, told me. 

 

"There's no indication anywhere in the data that there's a surge of existing homes coming to market," Simonsen said. "So that continues to bode well for new construction, because the people who own homes in the US have a remarkably good deal and they are unlikely to sell, maybe ever."

 

Homebuilders even have an advantage over existing homeowners who decide to sell for whatever reason. These firms can entice buyers with deals like rate buydowns, in which the builder pays to lower the mortgage rate either for the life of the loan or just for the first couple of years. On a $450,000 home, which is roughly the median sale price according to the Census, a buyer putting 20% down could save $85,000 over the lifetime of their 30-year loan if their interest rate were just one percentage point lower than the current rate.

 

 

Roughly 56% of builders offered incentives to buyers in June, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, up from 54% in May. Since the NAHB began surveying builders about incentives in 1995, the percentage offering these kinds of deal sweeteners had never fallen below 50% until July 2022, when it hit 43%. Usage of incentives has been on the upswing since, although it's still nowhere near the historical high of 86% in December 2008. Most regular home sellers don't feel motivated to front the money for a rate buydown since there are still plenty of buyers out there waiting to pounce on homes when they hit the market — and they're willing to pony up good money for them. But those who offer incentives get a leg up in the market.

 

"Builders have greater control over the interest rates on the mortgage that they can offer to homebuyers, so the payments are cheaper right now than you can get in the existing market. They look relatively more affordable," Simonsen told me. "As a result, we can see the builders are saying, 'Well, let's build more then. We have control and this advantage.'"

 

Though builders have an easier time making these types of deals work, regular home sellers probably won't feel the need to offer similar deals since attractive listings are still getting multiple offers and selling quickly amid the current inventory shortage, Sheryl Palmer, the CEO of the national homebuilder Taylor Morrison, told me. 

 

"Most importantly, we're just undersupplied," Palmer said. "And that's been exacerbated by what people are calling the 'lock-in effect' of the resale market."

 

These advantages are starting to make homebuilders feel a little more cheery about their prospects. Sure, a quarter of builders told the NAHB last month that they had cut prices to boost sales — but that's down from 36% in November, the most recent peak. Supply-chain issues have eased significantly, and while the labor market is tight, the construction industry has still added 88,000 jobs this year. And looking at surveys of homebuilder sentiment, it's clear that optimism is on the rise. The NAHB's monthly index of homebuilder confidence rose to 55 out of 100 in June, continuing a general upward trajectory from a low of 31 in December. Anything higher than 49 is considered positive on the index, which ranges from 0 to 100. 

 

"People are having to turn more toward new construction," Cristian deRitis, the deputy chief economist for Moody's Analytics, told me in mid-May. "Sometimes it's the only game in town."

 

Optimism with an asterisk

Experts I spoke with warned against getting too worked up over one month's numbers, particularly since the Census' estimates of housing starts are often revised after their release. Indeed, a subsequent data release on Wednesday did show that the pace of housing starts in May was slightly slower than originally estimated, down to a still-robust 1.56 million units instead of the original 1.63 million. That was mostly driven by a downward revision in the number of multifamily starts — something that private developers and analysts like Jay Parsons, the head of economics for the real-estate software company RealPage, had anticipated. 

 

Early Census figures for June show that building activity did slow from the May highs, with the pace of starts dropping to an annual rate of 1.43 million. But even with the one-month cool-off, construction activity is still trending higher. "Despite this reversal in June, housing starts are up 7% since January. Similarly, permits are up 6.3% over the same period. Thus, today's report continues to suggest stabilization in the housing market," JPMorgan senior economist Murat Tasci wrote in a note to clients following the release. Other data still offers a more sunny outlook for new construction. The number of housing permits issued — a measure of homes that have been approved for construction but not started — rose for the fifth straight month in June, hitting its highest level in a year. And according to John Burns' homebuilding survey, production builders averaged 3.5 starts of single-family homes per community in June, a 7% increase year over year and up 17% from the June average from 2013 to 2019.

 

 

Even if buyers get some relief from new housing construction, builders are still a long way off from bridging the housing shortfall. At the end of 2020, Freddie Mac pegged the housing shortage at 3.8 million units, while a recent report from Realtor.com estimated the gap at 2.3 million units. New housing starts would need to increase by about 50% from the 2022 pace to close that gap in just two to three years, the report said. But that's a tall order, especially since homebuilders dramatically pulled back production in the wake of the global financial crisis. From 2010 to 2019, builders started roughly 21,000 single-family homes per 1 million people each year, barely half as much as they were building in each of the three prior decades. 

 

People are having to turn more toward new construction. Sometimes it's the only game in town.

"It is encouraging that homebuilders have ramped up production, but the supply from new construction takes time and remains insufficient," Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said in a statement accompanying its report on pending home sales. 

 

Builders are now at "a bit of an inflection point," Matthew Walsh, an economist at Moody's Analytics, told me. They're simultaneously buoyed by the lack of existing homes on the market, constrained by higher interest rates and labor shortages, and wary of overbuilding. Demand may be lower than during the wild days of 2021, but there are signs that it's stabilizing — another positive for the industry. 

 

"I think the builders want to keep good momentum. Don't shut it off," Palmer told me. "Everyone's trying to find that middle ground and let production match the sales, because over the last 18 months, production's been way behind. And so, I think everyone's trying to find that real balanced sweet spot."

 

A scarcity of sellers has thrown the need for new housing into even sharper relief. If people keep choosing to stay in their homes longer, we'll grow ever more reliant on new construction to fill that gap.-businessinside

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 


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Facebook:      <http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimbabwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA> www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 


 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 


CBZ

AGM

Virtual

July 21 2023 | 4pm

 


POSB

AGM

Chapman Golf Club

July 25 2023 |10am

 


Afdis

AGM

Virtual | St Marnocks, Lomagundi Road, Stapleford

July 26 2023 | 12pm

 


RTG

AGM

Rainbow Towers Hotel

July 27 2023 |12pm

 


ZHL

AGM

206 Samora Machel Avenue

July 28 2023 | 10am

 


Delta

AGM

Virtual | Head Office, Northridge Close, Borrowdale

July 28 2023 | 12:30pm

 


 

Heroes’ Day

 

Aug 14

 


 

Defence Forces Day

 

Aug 15

 


zIMBABWE

 

2023 harmonised elections

August 23

 


Companies under Cautionary

 

 

 


 

 

 

 


CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 


Padenga

Econet

RTG

 


Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 


 

 

 

 


 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 


 

 


DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from s believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and d from third parties.

 


 

 


(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:  <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell: +263 77 344 1674

 


 

 

 

 

 

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