Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 March 2023

Thu Mar 23 03:39:38 CAT 2023

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 22 March 2023

 <https://www.facebook.com/Hyundaizimbabwe> ZSE commentary

ZSE rising tide continue.

The ZSE rising tide persisted in the mid-week session as the primary All
Share Index surged 1.31% to close at 38522.35pts while, the Blue-Chip Index
inched up 0.95% to 23339.55pts. The Mid Cap Index rose 2.06% to 73458.48pts
while, the Agriculture Index added 1.59% to 137.76pts. Banking group, First
Capital led the gainers of the day on a 14.88% jump to close at $28.9500,
followed by Proplastics that advanced 11.64% to $89.3644. Tea producers
Tanganda that soared 10.66% to $348.5714 while, Rainbow Tourism Group
climbed 7.88% to $13.0000. Fintech group Ecocash Holdings completed the top
five winners' pack on a 7.18% uplift to settle at $90.0000. Headlining the
losers of the day was Zimpapers that slid 7.92% to $5.3500 while, Ariston
Holdings tumbled 5.22% to $10.4263. Zimplow Holdings eased 2.60% to settle
at $35.1042 as First Mutual Properties slipped 1.15% to end pegged at
$15.6667. BAT capped the losers' pack on a 0.31% slump to $2,699.0000. The
market closed with a positive breadth of nine as seventeen counters
registered gains against eight that lost their grip.

Activity aggregates were enhanced as turnover jumped 84.66% to $766.73m
while, volume of shares traded swelled 132.66% to see 6.65m shares exchange
hands. Delta, OKZim, Econet, and FBC Holdings were the top value drivers as
they contributed a combined 91.59% to the outturn. The top volume drivers of
the day were OKZim (49.80%), Econet (11.07%), First Capital (9.61%) and
Delta (8.07%). On the VFEX, Padenga and Bindura lost 4.17% and 1.86% to
$0.2207 and $0.2645 respectively. Contrarily, Axia put on 0.24% to close the
day at $0.1250. A total of 2.99m units worth $5.58m traded on the ETF
segment. Cass Saddle and Datvest ETFs added 0.41% and 0.51% to see the
former close at $2.0900 and the latter at $1.8600. Morgan and Co MCS and the
Old Mutual ETF surged 11.86% and 3.47% to settle at $24.6501 and $9.2037.
The Tigere REIT shed 2.41% to close the day pegged at $45.7226.
-efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Zambia

Kwacha performance a source of worry - ZIPAR

THE Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR) says the
depreciating Kwacha is a source of concern. According to the Bank of Zambia
daily market rates, the Kwacha was buying at K20.6295 against the US dollar
and selling at K20.6720 as at 12:30 hours, Monday. 

Asked about the impact of the Kwacha performance on investments, ZIPAR
Executive Director Dr Herrick Mpuku said in an interview, Monday, that the
impact could not be determined now.

"I wouldn't try to zone in specifically on the exchange rate, the way I put
it myself is that the macroeconomic instability which is a short-term
instability in the economy represents uncertainty, and that uncertainty,
business does not like uncertainty. So the fact that there....

South Africa

S.African rand edges higher ahead of inflation data, Fed rate decision

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand edged higher in early trade on Wednesday,
ahead of the release of local inflation data and highly anticipated interest
rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

At 0645 GMT, the risk-sensitive rand traded at 18.5000 against the dollar,
0.32% stronger than its previous close.

South African markets were closed on Tuesday on account of a public holiday.

Local investors will be looking at February inflation figures due at 0800
GMT by Statistics South Africa for clues on the health of the economy.

Market focus will also be on the Fed's policy meeting, which will end later
in the day, with investors awaiting clarity on the path the U.S. central
bank could take in the wake of a global banking turmoil.

Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis-point hike.

"Risk-sensitive currencies have all come under pressure due to the prospect
of higher rates in the US and the strain on the global banking system," said
Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

The government's benchmark 2030 bond was weaker in early deals, with the
yield up 5 basis points to 9.980%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar falls after Fed raises rates, indicates one more hike ahead

(Reuters) - The dollar slid on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve
raised its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point, as widely expected,
and pointed to just one more rate hike this year.

The Fed projected at least one additional interest rate increase of 25 basis
points by the end of 2023, but suggested that could represent at least an
initial stopping point for the rate hikes.

The dollar index last fell 0.63% to 102.500, with the euro up 0.87% to
$1.0861.

The dollar fell 0.82% against the Japanese yen , while Sterling was last
trading at $1.2268, up 0.41% on the day.

In a key shift driven by the sudden failures this month of Silicon Valley
Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, the Fed's latest policy statement no longer
says that "ongoing increases" in rates will likely be appropriate. That
language had been in every policy statement since the March 16, 2022
decision to start the rate-hiking cycle.

"I think the Fed did take the path of least resistance here, hiking but also
providing a relatively dovish outlook on rates over the year ahead. That
essentially gives markets what they were looking for," said Karl Schamotta,
chief market strategist at Corpay.

Markets had projected a quarter-point rise in U.S. rates, but investors were
also paying close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments about the
crisis that has rattled global banks this month.

"Our banking system is sound and resilient with strong capital and
liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions of the banking
system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe
and sound," Powell said at the news conference following the Fed's rate hike
announcement.

The Fed, together with other major central banks, has made provisions to
grease the wheels of the financial system, after the failure of several
smaller U.S. lenders and the implosion of Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) at the
weekend unleashed huge market volatility and a rout in banking stocks and
bonds in particular.

The Fed's "dovish hike" should mean a lower dollar in the coming weeks and
days, provided that bank liquidity issues remain at bay, Wells Fargo
analysts wrote in a research note.

The pound rose after data showed UK inflation came in much hotter than
expected in February, which puts Bank of England policymakers in a tough
position when they meet on Thursday.

The Australian dollar rose 0.29% versus the greenback to $0.669, while New
Zealand's kiwi rose 0.57% versus the greenback to $0.623.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last fell 2.5% to $27,488.00, after hitting a
nine-month peak on Monday.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold prices could notch an all-time high soon - and stay there

Gold prices have more room to run as global banks struggle and the U.S.
Federal Reserve renders another interest rate decision, potentially breaking
all-time highs - and staying there.

"A sooner Fed pivot on rate hikes will likely cause another gold price surge
due to a potential further decline in the U.S. dollar and bond yields," said
Tina Teng from financial services company CMC Markets. She expects gold will
trade between $2,500 to $2,600 an ounce.

Investors have been flocking to gold and Treasurys as bank stocks have been
whacked by the shuttering of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse's
implosion.

Gold is trading at $1,940.68 per ounce. On Monday, it breached $2,000 to
strike its highest since March 2022. Gold has risen around 10% since early
March when SVB was hit by a bank run.

Gold's all-time high was $2,075 in August 2020, according to Refinitiv data.
Demand from central banks will likely keep wind in its sails.

"Continued central bank buying of gold bodes well for long-term prices,"
said CEO Randy Smallwood of Wheaton Precious Metals, a precious metals
streaming company.

I think it's very plausible that we see a strong performance in gold over
the coming months. The stars appear to be aligning for gold which could see
it break new highs before long.

Smallwood forecasts gold prices hitting $2,500.

Demand for gold skyrocketed to an 11-year high in 2022, owing to "colossal
central bank purchases," according to the World Gold Council. Central banks
bought a 55-year high of 1,136 tons of gold last year.

In late March, Fitch Solutions predicted that gold would notch a high of
$2,075 "in the coming weeks." The firm based that outlook on "global
financial instability," adding that it expects gold to "remain elevated in
the coming years compared to pre-Covid levels."

A worker handles an Argor-Heraeus SA one kilogram gold bar at Solar Capital
Gold Zrt. arranged in Budapest, Hungary, on Tuesday, March 22, 2022. Gold
edged higher in Asian trading -- following its biggest weekly drop since
June -- as investors weighed monetary policy tightening in the U.S. against
the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg
via Getty Images

"I think it's very plausible that we see a strong performance in gold over
the coming months. The stars appear to be aligning for gold which could see
it break new highs before long," one analyst said.

Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at foreign exchange company Oanda,
agrees with Fitch's buoyant outlook.

"I think it's very plausible that we see a strong performance in gold over
the coming months. The stars appear to be aligning for gold which could see
it break new highs before long," he said.

"Interest rates are at or near their peak, cuts are now being priced in
sooner than anticipated on the back of recent developments in the banking
sector," said Erlam, who added that he thinks that dynamic will boost gold
demand, even if it coincides with a softer dollar.

Fed's next moves

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve's next moves and their
impact on gold prices.

The Fed began their two-day meeting on Tuesday, where it's widely expected
to approve a 25 basis point rate hike Wednesday, though predictions vary
among analysts.

The process of crafting gold as seen in the Krastsvetmet company, one of the
world's largest producers of precious metals in Moscow, Russia on January
31, 2023.

"Overall, the Fed will have to choose between higher inflation or a
recession, and either outcome is bullish for gold," said Nicky Shiels, head
of metals strategy at precious metals firm MKS Pamp.

"Overall, the Fed will have to choose between higher inflation or a
recession, and either outcome is bullish for gold," said Nicky Shiels, head
of metals strategy at precious metals firm MKS Pamp. She forecasts gold to
extend to $2,200 per ounce.

A weakening of the dollar may support gold prices, according to HSBC's chief
precious metals analyst James Steel, who expects a 25 basis point hike from
the Fed.

Gold and the greenback

"What we saw earlier [last] week was the simultaneous events of both gold
and the dollar. And that's quite unusual," Steel said, referring to the rise
in gold prices and the dollar last week.

There's usually an inverse relationship between gold prices and the U.S.
dollar. But investors tend to like the perceived safety of U.S. Treasurys
and gold simultaneously during periods of financial stress.

"This scenario does not happen often but when it does - it is always a sign
of elevated investor concerns," Steel said.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Good Friday

April 7

Easter Saturday

April 8

Easter Sunday

April 9

Easter Monday

April 10

Independence Day

April 18

Workers' Day

May 1

Africa Day

May 25

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

TSL

Fidelity

Willdale

FMHL

ZBFH

GetBucks

Zimre

Seed Co

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

(c) 2023 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell:
+263 77 344 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0002.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.png
Type: image/png
Size: 1090498 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0003.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 32236 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 29353 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130913 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20230323/4bdd8399/attachment-0001.obj>