Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 November 2023

Fri Nov 3 07:24:26 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 November 2023

ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/>  

The ZSE All Share Index added 829.37 points to close at 158,748.17 points.
Trading in the positive: NMBZ HOLDINGS LIMITED added $52.1000 to $399.5000
and ZB FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LIMITED increased by $30.0000 to $880.0000. SEED
CO LIMITED gained $22.8962 to close at $880.0000, DELTA CORPORATION LIMITED
was $19.3745 up at $2969.6223 and MEIKLES LIMITED added $9.1100 to
$949.7059.

Trading in the negative: CBZ HOLDINGS LIMITED shed $14.0278 to close at
$1,963.7500, ECONET WIRELESS LIMITED shed $5.1789 to close at $493.8433 and
TANGANDA TEA COMPANY LIMITED eased $4.2054 to $945.8333. HIPPO VALLEY
ESTATES LIMITED  lost $0.2941 to $2,000.0000 and STAR AFRICA CORPORATION
LIMITED  was $0.0127 down at $4.9606.

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (ETF)

OLD MUTUAL TOP 10 ETF shed $0.1500 to $35.5000 and MORGAN & CO MULTISECTOR
EXCHANGE TRADED FUND added $1.4070 to $253.0000. CASS SADDLE AGRICULTURE
EXCHANGE TRADED FUND , DATVEST MODIFIED CONSUMER STAPLES EXCHANGE TRADED
FUNDS lost $0.0400 to $7.2000, MORGAN & CO MADE IN ZIMBABWE was $0.1225 down
at $6.7898 and MORGAN & CO MULTISECTOR EXCHANGE TRADED FUND retreated by
$1.3553 to $251.5930. 

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST (REIT)

TIGERE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST  was $1.9900 up at $240.0000.-zse

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

AFRICA-FX-Kenyan, Ugandan and Zambian currencies seen falling

(Reuters) - The Kenyan and Ugandan shillings and Zambia's kwacha are
expected to lose ground against the dollar in the next week to Thursday,
while Ghana's cedi will probably be broadly steady as should Nigeria's naira
on the official market, traders said.

KENYA

Kenya's shilling KES= is seen slipping on increased demand for dollars from
manufacturers and oil-retailing companies.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 150.75/95 per U.S. dollar, compared
with last Thursday's closing rate of 150.20/40.

"Demand coming from the usual ... oil marketers, manufacturing, all those
who have dollar obligations, and limited supply," one trader said.

Earlier on Thursday, the shilling, which is down roughly 18% against the
dollar this year, hit a new all-time low of 151.00/20, LSEG data showed.

NIGERIA

Nigeria's naira NGN=D1 is likely to trade around its current levels on the
official market, but it could ease on the parallel market.

The naira was quoted at 860 to the dollar in official trading NGN=D1 on
Thursday, compared with about 900 at the close of trading a week earlier.
The currency of Africa's biggest economy was changing hands at 1,125 to the
dollar in street trading NGNP=, up from a record low of 1,300 per dollar
last Thursday.

"We have seen the second open market operations auction of the year this
week and market participants say the central bank lifted a cap on
remunerable funds at its deposit facility," one trader said. "The signs are
there that the central bank (is) providing liquidity in the market."

GHANA

Ghana's cedi is forecast to be relatively stable.

LSEG data showed the cedi trading at 11.88 to the dollar on Thursday GHS=,
compared to 11.86 at last Thursday's close.

"We expect the stability to be maintained in the coming week as (the) market
keeps a keen eye on a possible announcement of the bilateral (debt)
restructuring MoU (memorandum of understanding) and the disbursement of the
second tranche of the IMF $600 million support," said Chris Nettey, head of
trading at Stanbic Bank Ghana.

Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader at Absa Bank Ghana, also expected stability as
interbank liquidity improves and bid-offer spreads tighten.

UGANDA

The Ugandan shilling UGX= is seen weakening on the back of strong dollar
demand from importers shipping in goods for the December holidays.

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,780/3,790 to the dollar, compared
with last Thursday's closing rate of 3,760/3,770.

A trader said foreign-currency demand from importers of items like food,
shoes, clothes and electronics was elevated and was expected to remain so in
the coming weeks.

"The shilling will continue to experience substantial pressure from this
demand," the trader said, predicting the local unit would weaken past 3,800
per dollar.

ZAMBIA

The kwacha ZMW= is likely to remain under pressure as demand for hard
currency, especially from the energy sector, continues to outpace limited
supply.

On Thursday, commercial banks quoted the kwacha at 22.42 per dollar from
22.11 a week ago.

"The local currency is anticipated to extend its losses in the short run,"
Access Bank said in a note.

South Africa

South African rand jumps after Fed holds rates, risk sentiment improves

(Reuters) - The South African rand jumped on Thursday against a weaker U.S.
dollar as risk sentiment improved after the Federal Reserve left interest
rates unchanged, analysts said.

At 1504 GMT, the rand traded at 18.4300 against the dollar , about 0.5%
stronger than its previous close. The rand had gained as much as 1% earlier
in the day.

The dollar was last down about 0.38% against a basket of global currencies.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its decision to keep interest rates
unchanged, weakening the dollar as investors perceived that the U.S. central
bank may be done raising rates.

The risk-sensitive rand often takes cues from global factors like U.S.
monetary policy in addition to local drivers.

The rand rallied on Thursday as investors bought into riskier assets, said
Casparus Treurnicht, portfolio manager at Gryphon Asset Management.

"Since the Fed did not increase rates last night some investors were
relieved, causing stocks and bonds to rally. The rand benefits from this as
the dollar's safe haven status is not needed for the time being," Treurnicht
said.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI)
closed up 2.43%, while the broader all-share index (.JALSH) was 2.36%
higher.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger, with the yield
down 2 basis points at 10.365%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar eases as traders bet Fed done with rate hikes

(Reuters) - The dollar stayed on the back foot on Friday and was on course
for a weekly decline against a basket of currencies as traders wagered that
the U.S. Federal Reserve was most likely done with rate increases, lifting
risk sentiment.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was
at 106.22, not far from the one-week low of 105.80 it hit on Thursday. The
index is on course to clock a 0.3% drop for the week, just its third week of
losses since July.

Markets are now pricing in a less than 20% chance of a rate increase in
December compared with 39% a month earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed, in the
wake of the U.S. central bank's holding interest rates steady on Wednesday.
The Fed, however, left the door open to a further increase in borrowing
costs in a nod to the economy's resilience.

Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits increased moderately last week as the labour market
continued to show few signs of a significant slowdown.

"The dataflow was supportive for the notion of a soft landing and the end of
the U.S. hiking cycle being nearer," said Tapas Strickland, head of market
economics at NAB.

Investor focus will now be on October non-farm payrolls data later in the
day, with consensus at 180,000 jobs, with a weaker result likely to put
further pressure on the dollar.

Analysts said any pullback in the dollar will probably be temporary,
pointing to the strength in U.S. economy compared with the rest of the
world.

"Global economy is going to slow down while the U.S. economy seems to be
more resilient ... so Fed versus ECB, you might see more divergence and then
the differential in real rates," said Flavio Carpenzano, Investment Director
for fixed income at Capital Group. "This is the reason why over the next few
months, it's difficult to see a big catalyst for the dollar to weaken."

The European Central Bank last week snapped a streak of 10 straight rate
increases, with the discussion shifting to how long the rates would stay
high.

ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday the central bank is on
track to push inflation back down to 2% by 2025 but the "last mile" of
disinflation may be the toughest, so the bank cannot yet close the door on
further rate rises.

The euro was down 0.03% to $1.0617, having risen 0.49% on Thursday. The
single currency is set to clock a weekly gain of 0.5%.

The Japanese yen was 150.41 per dollar, keeping traders nervy and looking
for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities.

The yen has had a whirlwind week, touching a one-year low against the dollar
and 15-year low against the euro on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan tweaked
its yield curve control policy.

Kazuo Ueda, the central bank's governor, will continue to dismantle its
ultra-loose monetary policy and look to exit the decade-long accommodative
regime next year, Reuters reported on Thursday.

Ueda's intentions are based on interviews with six sources familiar with the
BOJ's thinking, including government officials with direct interaction with
the bank.

Sterling was trading at $1.2189, down 0.10% on the day, having risen 0.4%,
and was on course for a 0.5% weekly gain. The Bank of England joined other
major central banks in holding rates steady and stressed that it did not
expect to start cutting them any time soon.

The Australian dollar eased 0.19% to $0.642, while the New Zealand dollar
fell 0.24% to $0.588.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold prices stay steady as US dollar, yields slip on hopes of peak Fed rates

Gold prices were little changed Thursday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury
yields retreated on raised bets that the Federal Reserve may be done raising
interest rates, while investors awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data for
further cues.

Spot gold traded near the flatline at $1,981.69 per ounce by 12:58 p.m. ET.
U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $1,989.20.

Helping bullion's appeal, the dollar index slipped, and benchmark U.S.
10-year note yields fell to a near three-week low.

Gold is stronger as there are signs of cracks in the U.S. labor market,
which probably signals the Fed is backing off completely from rate hikes,
said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims rose moderately as the labor market
continues to show few signs of a significant slowdown.

The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday as policymakers considered whether
financial conditions may be sufficiently tight to control inflation.

The market now sees an 85% chance of another Fed pause in December,
according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Investors will also monitor the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due on Friday
for further cues on the U.S. central bank's policy path.

Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Gold rose over 7% in October and surpassed the key $2,000-per-ounce level
last week on safe-haven demand amid growing unrest in the Middle East.

"Gold already prices in the geo-political risks. if the war expands, then
prices would benefit more," Haberkorn added.

Spot silver fell 1% to $22.75226 per ounce.

Platinum lost 0.2% to $918.71, and palladium was up by less than 0.1% at
$1,103.6418.

Shares of Johannesburg-based precious metals producer Sibanye Stillwater
fell more than 3% after the company said it was considering further changes
at its U.S. palladium mines to adjust the operations to metal prices that
have dropped faster than anticipated.

.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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