Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15 November 2023

Thu Nov 16 07:17:07 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 15 November 2023

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> ZSE commentary

The ZSE All Share Index recovered 1,470.37 points to close at 173,221.35 points. Trading in the positive: FBC HOLDINGS LIMITED added $70.0000 to close at $820.0000, FIRST MUTUAL HOLDINGS LIMITED increased by $31.5385 to close at $881.5385 and OK ZIMBABWE LIMITED traded $24.7319 higher to $189.7499. DELTA CORPORATION LIMITED  was $16.2489 up at $3251.1735 and TSL LIMITED added $13.5500 to $1055.0000.

Trading in the positive: HIPPO VALLEY ESTATES LIMITED shed $101.6442 to $1900.1186, SEED CO LIMITED lost $6.6953 to close at $720.0000 and ECONET WIRELESS LIMITED eased $4.7164 to $626.2557. ARISTON HOLDINGS LIMITED decreased by $1.5000 to $30.5000 and TANGANDA TEA COMPANY LIMITED

lost $1.0000 to $950.0000.

EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS 

MORGAN & CO MULTISECTOR EXCHANGE TRADED FUND added $19.5810 to $329.5810, DATVEST MODIFIED CONSUMER STAPLES EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS shed $1.0000 to $8.0000 and OLD MUTUAL TOP 10 ETF  was $0.0443 lower at $34.9557 .CASS SADDLE AGRICULTURE EXCHANGE TRADED FUND  and MORGAN & CO MADE IN ZIMBABWE remained flat at $7.5000 and $7.2000 respectively

REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST 

TIGERE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST added $0.1100 to close at $255.0000.-zse

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand weakens ahead of retail sales data

(Reuters) - The South African rand was weaker in early trade on Wednesday ahead of retail sales data in South Africa and the United States which could provide markets with fresh direction.

At 0717 GMT, the rand traded at 18.2550 against the dollar ZAR=D3, about 0.2% weaker than its previous close.

The dollar =USD last traded around 0.1% stronger against a basket of major currencies.

The rand jumped on Tuesday as softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data boosted expectations the Federal Reserve might be done with interest rate hikes.

Like other risk-sensitive currencies, the rand often takes its cues from global drivers such as U.S. monetary policy.

Investors will look to U.S. retail sales and producer price inflation data later on Wednesday for further clues as to the state of the economy.

"Given the mood, the market would surge on any softening in the data," said Rand Merchant Bank analysts in a briefing.

Locally, Statistics South Africa will publish the country's September retail sales data ZARET=ECI at 1100 GMT. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a 0.1% rise in retail sales year-on-year.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond ZAR2030= was stronger in early deals, with the yield down 4 basis points to 10.195%.

Nigeria

Naira shrugs off inflation hike, appreciates to N818.99/$1 at the official market 

The naira gained against the U.S. dollar in the official market and closed flat in the parallel market, halting losses after experiencing an appreciable decline in the past two days.

Despite the increase in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate to 27.33% in October, up from the September 2023 rate of 26.72%, as released today by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The October 2023 headline inflation rate represents a 0.61 %-point increase compared to the figure for the previous month of September.  

Additionally, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.24% points higher than the rate recorded in October 2022, which stood at 21.09%. 

The exchange rate between the naira and dollar rose to N818.99/$1 on Wednesday at the official market.  

This represents an N31.23 gain or a 3.81% increase in the local currency compared to the N850.22 it recorded on Tuesday.  

The intraday high recorded was N1100/$1, while the intraday low was N751.00/$1, representing a wide spread of N348.78/$1. 

According to data obtained from the official NAFEM window, forex turnover at the close of the trading was $173.51 million, representing a 20.87% increase compared to the previous day.  

However, the naira closed flat at the parallel forex market where forex is sold unofficially, the exchange rate closed at N1140/$1 as against the same N1140/$1 it quoted on Tuesday, representing 0.00%, while peer-to-peer traders quoted around N1127.01/$1.  

October Inflation

Nigeria’s inflation rate jumped to 27.33% in October 2023 as prices of foodstuff continued to increase in the aftermath of the removal of fuel subsidy by the President Bola Tinubu administration. 

This was according to the October 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation Report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday. 

The CPI, which measures the changes in the prices of goods and services, rose from 26.72% to 27.33% showing an increase of 0.61% points. 

“In October 2023, the headline inflation rate increased to 27.33% relative to the September 2023 headline inflation rate which was 26.72%,” the report partly read. 

“Looking at the movement, the October 2023 headline inflation rate showed an increase of 0.61% points when compared to the September 2023 headline inflation rate. 

“Furthermore, on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 6.24% points higher compared to the rate recorded in October 2022, which was (21.09%). 

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) increased in October 2023 when compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., October 2022).” 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Rupee back under pressure after US data helps dollar recover

(Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open lower on Thursday after U.S. retail sales fell less than expected, helping the dollar recover from a plunge fuelled by softer-than-expected inflation data.

Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 83.20 to the U.S. dollar compared with its previous close of 83.1425.

The rupee had on Wednesday logged its best session in nearly two months.

The dollar index inched up to 104.50, Asian currencies dropped 0.2% to 0.6% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was near 4.50%.

Rupee will be "back on the defensive after yesterday's mild reprieve" and "we probably see 83.30 are thereabouts revisited", a forex trader said.

"The trade data was not particularly helpful (for the rupee)," he added, referring to India's merchandise trade deficit reaching a record high of $31.5 billion in October.

U.S retail sales slipped 0.1% month-on-month in October compared to the 0.3% fall expected by economists polled by Reuters. Further, data for September was revised to show sales increasing 0.9% from 0.7% previously.

The data indicates "decent resilience" and supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth may not be as weak as the consensus is currently predicting, ING Bank said in a note.

The dollar drew additional support from comments by Federal Reserve officials. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned against calling time on rate-rising cycle too soon, in an interview to Financial Times on Wednesday.

"Daly offered a glimpse into Fed policy thinking in 2024. She reminded markets that the Fed intends to keep rates very restrictive” for an extended period before “normalizing” them," DBS Research said in a note.

KEY INDICATORS:

** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.24; onshore one-month forward premium at 4.25 paisa

** Dollar index up at 104.52

** Brent crude futures down 0.9% at $80.4 per barrel

** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.51%

** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $112.6 mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 13

** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $50.7 mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 13

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold steadies as firm dollar counters bets on peak US rates

(Reuters) - Gold steadied below one-week highs on Wednesday, weighed by a stronger dollar, but expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done with hiking interest rates put a floor under prices.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,960.49 per ounce by 2:20 p.m. ET (1920 GMT), after touching a one-week peak earlier. U.S. gold futures settled 0.1% lower at $1,964.30.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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