Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 October 2023

Tue Oct 3 07:48:31 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 02 October 2023

ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/>  

Market charges ahead in the month opening session...

The market continued to charge ahead in the new month as all the four
indices we review closed pointing northwards. The All-Share Index surged
5.23% to settle at 133,270.45pts while, the Blue chip Index firmed up 7.80%
to close at 60,971.85pts buoyed by Delta and OK Zimbabwe. The Mid-Cap Index
rose by 0.94% to end at 502,702.38pts while, the Agriculture Index was up
0.18% to end pegged at 519.84pts. Banking group NMB headlined the gainers’
list of the day as it charged 15.00% to close at $247.9000, trailed by
beverages giant Delta that advanced 14.85% to settle at $2,636.5281.
Retailer OK Zimbabwe edged up 14.04% to end the day pegged at a VWAP of
$136.9677 while, insurance giant First Mutual Holdings garnered 12.29% to
$245.0000. Asbestos manufacturer Turnall capped the day at $23.6492
following a 7.50% ascent, as it fastened the top five winners of the day. A
total of fifteen counters registered price movements, segregated into eleven
gainers and four losers, leaving the market with a positive breadth of
seven.

Trading in the negative territory were three counters headlined by General
Beltings which plunged 13.04% to close at $10.0000. Tea producer Tanganda
was 0.03% lower at $912.7527 while, property concern First Mutual lost a
negligible 0.02% to settle at $124.9308. Activity aggregates faltered in the
session as volumes traded declined 91.82% to see 923,348 shares exchange
hands while, turnover fell 49.32% to close at $984.81m. The threesome of
Delta, Willdale and First Mutual Properties led the volume drivers of the
day with a combined contribution of 66.06%. Delta claimed the lion’s share
of the value aggregate at 84.92% of the total. In the ETF category, Morgan &
Co Made in Zim ETF was 0.30% weaker at $7.8261 while, Datvest MCS gained a
negligible $0.0002 to close pegged at $6.7952. The Tigere REIT was 0.01%
lower at $234.9674 as 13,254 units traded.

VFEX reverses prior week gains...

The VFEX retreated in the opening session of the week as it parred off 0.21%
to 74.32pts. Retail distribution giant Axia headlined the laggards of the
day as it dropped 5.88% to $0.0800 while, conglomerate Innscor Africa shed
3.30% to end trading at $0.5038. Trading in the positive territory were
National Foods and First Capital that notched up 8.29% and 2.04% to see the
former settle at $1.5000 and the latter at $0.0300. Padenga advanced 0.28%
to $0.1800 while, seed manufacturer SeedCo International added 0.22% to
close at $0.2305. Fast foods producer Simbisa put on 0.18% to close at
$0.4000 as it capped the top five gainers of the day. Activity aggregates
were mixed in the session as volumes traded tumbled 78.71% to 131,472 shares
with the main contributors being Simbisa and Axia which had contributions of
77.99% and 17.36% respectively. Turnover jumped 29.69% to $45,035.45 as Axia
claimed 91.08% of the value traded.

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand slumps on local PMI data, stronger dollar

(Reuters) - The South African rand slumped on Monday, dragged down by a
stronger dollar and local purchasing managers' data that showed factory
activity shrank for the eighth month in a row in September.

At 1525 GMT, the rand traded at 19.1700 against the dollar , 1.21% weaker
than its previous close.

The dollar index rose around 0.5% against a basket of global currencies,
helped by data that showed the U.S. manufacturing sector took a step towards
recovery in September, as production picked up and employment rebounded.

The Absa Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed that local manufacturing
activity contracted due to depressed demand and constrained production.

"The drop in the PMI today (weakened) the rand, pulling it back to
R19.00/USD on disappointment of a much weaker than expected figure, although
the rand's reaction could prove temporary," Investec economist Annabel
Bishop said in a research note.

Monday's fall reversed gains made by the rand on Friday after U.S. Treasury
yields lost some steam and risk appetite returned to the market.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI)
closed around 1.6% lower than its previous close.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker, with the yield up
9 basis points, to 10.900%.

Ghana

Cedi jumps to sell at GH¢11.70 to $1, BoG at GH¢11.13 as of October 2 

Note that these rates may be different at a forex bureau near you. Our forex
bureau rates are provided by Afriswap Bureau De Change in Osu, Accra.

The Interbank forex rates from the Bank of Ghana today, October 2, 2023,
have shown that the Ghana Cedi is trading against the dollar at a buying
price of 11.1229 and a selling price of 11.1341.

At a Forex bureau in Accra, the dollar is being bought at a rate of 11.50
and sold at 11.70.

Against the Pound Sterling, the Cedi is trading at a buying price of 13.5856
and a selling price of 13.6014.

At a Forex Bureau in Accra, the pound sterling is being bought at a rate of
14.10 and sold at a rate of 14.60.

The Euro is trading at a buying price of 11.7716 and a selling price of
11.7832.

At a Forex Bureau in Accra, the Euro is being bought at a rate of 12.00 and
sold at a rate of 12.50.

The South African Rand is trading at a buying price of 0.5888 and a selling
price of 0.5893.

At a forex bureau in Accra, the South African Rand is being bought at a rate
of 0.35 and sold at a rate of 0.95.

The Nigerian Naira is trading at a buying price of 69.0165 and a selling
price of 69.4568.

At a forex bureau in Accra, Nigerian Naira is being bought at a rate of
10.00 Naira for every 1 Cedi and sold at a rate of 15.00.

For the CFA, it is trading at a buying price of 55.6688 and a selling price
of 55.7237.

At a forex bureau in Accra, CFA is being bought at a rate of 16.50 CFA for
every 1 Cedi and sold at a rate of 20.50 CFA for every 1 Cedi.

Our forex bureau rates are provided by Afriswap Bureau De Change in Osu,
Accra.

Ghana’s leading digital news platform, GhanaWeb, in conjunction with the
Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital, is embarking on an aggressive campaign which is
geared towards ensuring that parliament passes comprehensive legislation to
guide organ harvesting, organ donation, and organ transplantation in the
country.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar climbs to near 150 vs yen after U.S. shutdown avoided

(Reuters) - The dollar index climbed on Monday, building on four straight
weeks of gains, after the U.S. government avoided a shutdown and economic
data again supported the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest
rates higher for a longer period of time.

U.S. manufacturing took a step further toward recovery in September as
production picked up and employment rebounded, according to an Institute for
Supply Management survey that also showed prices paid for inputs by
factories falling considerably.

ISM manufacturing PMI

The U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill late on Saturday with
overwhelming Democratic support after Republican House Speaker Kevin
McCarthy backed down from an earlier demand by his party's hardliners for a
partisan bill.

Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year note hitting 4.703%, as
averting a government shutdown reduced demand for U.S. debt, while the data
highlighted the economy's resiliency despite the Fed's target rate in
restrictive territory.

"It's the feeling that the U.S. economy can stomach higher interest rates
for a little bit longer," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy
at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

"Implicitly it also means that the Fed might not be so quick to cut rates
next year either," he said.

The dollar index rose 0.62% to 106.89, with the euro down 0.75% to $1.0491.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.31% versus the greenback at 149.77, after
falling to 149.90.

"You are still seeing the U.S. growth story is much better than abroad and
that is probably going to keep that interest rate differential widely in its
favor," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda in New York.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she remained willing to support another
increase in the central bank's policy interest rate at a future meeting if
incoming data showed progress on inflation was stalling or proceeding too
slowly.

Investors have been closely watching for signs of intervention in the
Japanese currency by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

The yen has come under pressure against the dollar as the BOJ remains a
dovish outlier among global central banks, especially since the Fed began
its aggressive rate-hike cycle in March 2022.

A summary of opinions at the Bank of Japan's September meeting showed more
policymakers discussed the prospects of an eventual exit from ultra-loose
policy, while the central bank also said it would conduct additional bond
buying operations, as it seeks to slow a rise in yields after the benchmark
reached its highest in a decade.

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said authorities were closely
watching FX moves with a "strong sense of urgency" as it neared the 150
mark, but declined to comment on whether intervention was a possibility at
this point.

Currency bid prices at 3:10 p.m. (1910 GMT)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold extends fall as strong dollar, higher US rates take toll

(Reuters) - Gold extended its decline for a sixth straight session on Monday
to hit a near seven-month trough, as a robust dollar and prospects of higher
U.S. interest rates took the shine off bullion.

Spot gold was down 0.9% by 1:52 p.m. EDT (1752 GMT) at $1,831.70 per ounce,
its lowest level since early March. U.S. gold futures settled 1% lower at
$1,847.20.

"There is a reckoning that interest rates are going to be higher for much
longer, which has been the bearish element in the precious market. Gold
prices could go below $1,800 in the near term," said Jim Wyckoff, senior
analyst at Kitco Metals.

"Trends in the currency markets tend to be stronger and longer-lasting. The
appreciation of the U.S. dollar may not end anytime soon, pressuring the
gold market."

The U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose 0.6%, making bullion less attractive to other
currency holders.

Traders are pricing in a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve will leave
interest rates at the current range of 5.25%-5.50% this year, according to
CME's FedWatch tool.

Federal Governor Michelle Bowman said she remains willing to support another
increase in rates if incoming data shows progress on inflation is stalling
or proceeding too slowly. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr,
however, said rates are "at or near" sufficiently restrictive level.

Since powering above the key $2,000-per-ounce level in early May, gold
prices have fallen more than 11%, or $230, pressured by a sharp rise in
benchmark U.S. Treasury yields, which makes the non-yielding gold less
attractive.

"The buying on dips (in gold) by central banks is now conspicuously absent,"
said Tai Wong, a New York-based independent metals trader.

The market focus now shifts to job openings data, private hiring numbers and
U.S. nonfarm payrolls over the course of the week.

Spot silver slid 4.2% to a more than six-month low of $21.23 per ounce.

Platinum fell 2.8% to $879.42 and palladium dipped 3.1% to $1,207.51.

.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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