Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 September 2023

Thu Sep 21 07:05:09 CAT 2023

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 20 September 2023

ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 

The ZSE All Share Index retreated 1,086.12 points to close at 144,351.25
points. Trading in the negative: BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO LIMITED lost
$214.3143 to $17285.6857, DELTA CORPORATION LIMITED eased $154.5466 to
$3117.2495 .SEED CO LIMITED shed $98.3325 to $900.0000 and MASIMBA HOLDINGS
LIMITED traded $90.2668 lower to $609.7332. FBC HOLDINGS LIMITED decreased
by $0.1000 to settle at $800.0000.

The ECONET WIRELESS Las recorded their first trades easing $109.2900 to
finish the session at $10.0000 Losses were offset by gains in CBZ HOLDINGS
LIMITED  which added $137.7487 to $1057.7987, AFDIS DISTILLERS LIMITED
gained $54.6875 to $1855.0000 and MEIKLES LIMITED was $53.8829 stronger at
$803.9043. ECOCASH HOLDINGS increased by $20.4590 to close at $161.4942.
FIRST MUTUAL PROPERTIES traded $14.6512 higher to $125.0512

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand jumps as dollar weakens, local data in focus

(Reuters) - The South African rand jumped on Wednesday as the dollar slipped
ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and after local
consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales data.

At 1544 GMT, the rand traded at 18.7600 against the dollar , 0.86% stronger
than its previous close.

The dollar last traded almost 0.3% weaker against a basket of global
currencies.

Year-on-year inflation edged higher to 4.8% in August from 4.7% in July
(ZACPIY=ECI), Statistic South Africa data showed on Wednesday, but remained
within the central bank's target range of 3% to 6%.

Analysts said after the CPI release that they still expected interest rates
to be left unchanged on Thursday.

"We doubt that this will prompt the South African Reserve Bank to restart
its tightening cycle tomorrow," Jason Tuvey, emerging markets economist at
Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to announce its main interest rate decision
later on Wednesday. It is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold.

Focus will be on the Fed's tone and economic forecasts, RMB analysts said in
a note, adding that a hawkish tone would weaken the rand.

Statistics agency data on Wednesday showed that retail sales fell 1.8%
year-on-year in July after declining by a revised 1.8% in June.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, both the blue-chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI)
and the broader all-share index (.JALSH) ended the day over 1% stronger.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was marginally stronger, with
the yield down 3 basis points to 10.455%.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Dollar higher as Fed skips rate hike but stiffens hawkish stance

(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on
Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but
stiffened its hawkish stance with a further rate increase projected by the
end of the year.

As they did in June, Fed policymakers at the median still see the central
bank's benchmark overnight interest rate peaking this year in the
5.50%-5.75% range, just a quarter of a percentage point above the current
range.

But from there, the Fed's updated quarterly projections show rates falling
only half a percentage point in 2024 compared with the full percentage point
of cuts anticipated at the meeting in June.

"This wasn't a 'pause,' it was a 'skip,'" said Karl Schamotta, chief market
strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

"With the economy performing better than expected and inflation pressures
remaining persistent, Fed officials chose to maintain a hawkishly
data-contingent bias in this afternoon's statement and dot plot," Schamotta
said.

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of
rivals, was 0.09% higher at 105.21, after having been as low as 104.66
earlier in the session.

The index rose for its ninth straight week last week, its longest winning
streak in nearly a decade as resilient U.S. growth has fueled a rebound in
the dollar.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that while some things are out of the central
bank's control, there is a good chance the Fed's aggressive rate hikes will
not send the economy into a downturn.

Interest rate sensitive two-year Treasury yields hit 17-year highs on
Wednesday after the Fed decision.

"It looks as though the Fed is trying to send as hawkish a signal as it
possibly can," said Gennadiny Goldberg, interest rate strategist at TD
Securities.

The dollar index's recent rally has put it on track to form a golden cross -
a bullish technical trading chart pattern - affirming an upbeat near-term
view on the currency, according to a BofA Global Research note.

The pound was volatile, last down 0.28% to $1.2357. It fell to a near
four-month earlier in the session following data showing British annual
consumer price inflation (CPI)unexpectedly fell to 6.7% in August, a day
before the Bank of England is expected to raise rates again.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast CPI would rise to 7.0% from July's
6.8%.

Dominic Bunning, Head of European FX Research at HSBC, said softness in core
and services inflation in particular should give some comfort and limit the
BoE to a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, marking the peak in the cycle.

Attention stayed fixed on the yen as U.S. and Japanese authorities heaped on
fresh comments about the possibility of intervention.

The yen was down 0.13% versus the greenback at 148.05 per dollar after the
Fed decision.

Japan's top financial diplomat, Masato Kanda, reiterated warnings that
Japanese authorities are always in close communication on currencies with
U.S. and overseas policymakers while keeping a close watch on market moves
with a "high sense of urgency."

Asked whether Washington would show understanding over another yen-buying
intervention by Japan, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said overnight
it "depends on the details" of the situation.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down about 1% on the day at $26,931, but
close to a near three-week high touched in the previous session.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold prices dip as US Fed hardens hawkish policy stance

Spot gold slid 0.3% to $1,924.68 per ounce

COMMODITIESGLOBAL MARKETSPRECIOUS METALS

Gold prices retreated on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and bond yields powered
higher after the Federal Reserve signalled another rate hike this year and a
tighter monetary policy through 2024 than previously expected.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold slid 0.3% to $1,924.68 per ounce by 0059 GMT, while U.S. gold
futures tumbled 1.1% to $1,944.90.

* Spot gold prices on Wednesday hit their highest since Sept. 1 before the
U.S. Fed revised its economic projections with higher-for-longer rate
warnings.

* The U.S. dollar index climbed 0.4% to its highest since March 9, while
two-year Treasury yields rose to 17-year high after the Fed held interest
rates steady on Wednesday but stiffened a hawkish monetary policy stance.

* Higher interest rates discourage the buying of non-interest-paying
bullion, which is priced in dollars.

* The Fed sketched a stricter policy path moving forward in an inflation
fight they now see lasting into 2026, but believe they can succeed in
lowering inflation without wrecking the economy or leading to large job
losses.

* The Bank of England will announce later in the day whether it is halting a
run of interest rate hikes that stretches back to December 2021, a day after
signs that it had turned a corner in tackling Britain's high inflation
problem.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund,
said its holdings fell 0.1% to 878.25 metric tons on Wednesday.

* Russia's gold reserves stood at 75.0 million troy ounces as of the start
of September, the central bank said on Wednesday.

* Spot silver fell 0.7% to $23.07 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.1% to
$918.79 and palladium dropped 1.8% to $1,251.21.

.

INVESTORS DIARY 2023

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Hippo

AGM

The Country Club, 1 Brompton Road, Newlands

Sept 29 2023 | 9am

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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