Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 29 August 2024

Thu Aug 29 12:34:39 CAT 2024

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Major International Business Headlines Brief:::  29 August 2024 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

ü  South Africa: Govt To Take Action Against Corrupt Construction Mafias

ü  Kenya: Rai Sustains Dominance, Controlling Nearly Half of Kenya's Sugar
Production

ü  Nigerian Govt Unveils Integrated Electricity Policy

ü  Nigeria: Experts Discuss Roles of Mobile Technology, Media in Achieving
Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Nigeria

ü  Nigeria: Google Search for Use of AI Increased By 40% in Nigeria - Report

ü  Africa: Facing Barriers in West, China to Push Green Products At Africa
Summit

ü  Ethiopia: From Water to Power - Ethiopia Activates Key Turbines At GERD
Amid Regional Diplomatic Maneuvering, Experts Examine What Lies Ahead

ü  Africa: Global Poverty Grows As Super-Rich Get Richer Faster

ü  South Africa's Coal Workers Face an Uncertain Future - Mpumalanga Study
Flags They're Being Left Out of the Green Transition

ü  Uganda: Financial Intelligence Authority Vows to Keep Uganda Off Grey
List

ü  Nigeria: Experts Discuss Roles of Mobile Technology, Media in Achieving
Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Nigeria

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

South Africa: Govt To Take Action Against Corrupt Construction Mafias

The Department of Public Works and Infrastructure will launch investigations
into thousands of leases, as well as a decade-long R300 million IT security
breach, reports News24. Minister Dean Macpherson said the investigation aims
to determine whether the law executed the leases and if the state is paying
market-related prices. He said ongoing efforts to combat the influence of
the construction mafia through policy reforms and legal actions, including a
case against Kroucamp Plumbers for securing unlawful tenders.

Devastating Fires Destroy Eastern Cape Game Reserve

More than half of the grazing land at the Lawrence de Lange Game Reserve in
Komani (formerly Queenstown) was destroyed by intense wildfires, reports
News24. The fire was eventually contained, and authorities confirmed that no
animals were harmed during the blaze, which raged for several hours. The
Enoch Mgijima Local Municipality manages the reserve. Bulelwa Ganyaza, the
spokesperson for the Chris Hani District Municipality, reported that the
Enoch Mgijima, Emalahleni, and Intsika Yethu municipalities were severely
impacted by the wildfires, which were exacerbated by dry weather and strong
winds.

Two Arrested in Durban Drug Busts

Two people were arrested in Durban after being caught with drugs valued at
over R3 million and will face charges related to drug possession and
dealing, reports News24. KwaZulu-Natal police stated that the arrests
occurred during two separate incidents conducted by Provincial Organised
Crime Unit members. Police spokesperson Colonel Robert Netshiunda said they
received intelligence about a man involved in drug trafficking. The suspect
was located in Umbilo, where police discovered 900 heroin capsules during a
search of his vehicle. Netshiunda said that follow-up investigations led the
police to the suspect's residence on Sphiwe Zuma Avenue, where additional
heroin capsules and powder were recovered. The seized drugs are estimated to
be worth R2 million. The 34-year-old man was arrested and charged with drug
possession and dealing, as well as being in the country illegally. In a
separate incident, a 38-year-old man was arrested in Berea after being found
in possession of heroin powder.

More South African news

Kenya: Rai Sustains Dominance, Controlling Nearly Half of Kenya's Sugar
Production

Billionaire Rai family has tightened their grip on the sugar market, with
the latest figures indicating that they controlled nearly half of the sales
in three months to June.

Sugar Directorate data shows the four firms owned by the Rai family
controlled 40 percent of the total production in the year to July, extending
control in the sugar market.

The sugar industry in Kenya has been dominated by a handful of players, with
the Rai family's enterprises leading the charge.

The latest data from the directorate reveal that four factories under the
Rai family's portfolio--West Kenya, Sukari, Naitiri, and Olepito--commanded
a significant share of the market.

These factories collectively produced 86,725 tonnes of sugar between May and
July 2024, representing 40.22 percent of the total 215,000 that was produced
over this period.

West Kenya Sugar Company, the largest of the four, alone accounted for
nearly half of the Rai family's contribution, producing 41,470 tonnes in the
three months.

This dominance is attributed to operation efficiency of the factory, which
has consistently led the market in production volumes.

Sukari Industries and Naitiri Sugar Company also made substantial
contributions, with outputs of 14,631 and 26,654 tonnes, respectively, while
the smallest of the four, Olepito Sugar Company, added 3,970 tonnes to the
total.

The combined production from these four factories has given the Rai family a
commanding influence over the sugar market, enabling them to dictate pricing
and supply dynamics to a considerable extent.

Their market share dwarfs that of other key players, such as Kibos Sugar and
Allied Industries, which produced 28,541 tonnes during the same period,
accounting for roughly 13 percent of the total production.

Butali Sugar Mills followed with a production of 22,051 tonnes, capturing
about 10 percent of the market.

Meanwhile, other factories like Mumias Sugar, once a giant in the industry,
have struggled to regain their footing, contributing 8,982 tonnes over the
three months--just over 4 percent of the total.

South Nyanza (Sony) Sugar Company, another notable player, managed to
produce 9,413 tonnes, also representing about 4 percent of the market share.

The remaining factories, including Nzoia Sugar Company, Chemelil Sugar
Company, and Transmara Sugar Company, collectively accounted for the
remaining percentage of production, highlighting the fragmented yet
Rai-dominated nature of the sugar industry in Kenya.

The Rai family's substantial control over the sugar industry has before
raised questions about market competition and the potential for monopolistic
practices.

With nearly half of the country's sugar production under their belt, the Rai
family's enterprises have not only outpaced their competitors but have also
positioned themselves as the central players in the industry, influencing
everything from sugar prices to distribution networks.

-Business Day Africa.

Nigerian Govt Unveils Integrated Electricity Policy

The event, according to the government, marks a critical juncture in the
nation's journey toward achieving a robust, sustainable, and inclusive power
sector that meets the aspirations of all Nigerians.

On Wednesday, the Nigerian government unveiled the draft of the National
Integrated Electricity Policy and Strategic Implementation Plan (NIEP-SIP).

The development, according to the government, marks a critical juncture in
the nation's journey toward achieving a robust, sustainable, and inclusive
power sector that meets the aspirations of all Nigerians.

Speaking at the NIEP-SIP Zero draft presentation in Abuja on Wednesday,
Nigeria's Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, said the policy is the product
of extensive consultations with industry experts, key stakeholders, and
development partners.

"The journey leading up to today has been a collaborative and rigorous
process, driven by our collective commitment to addressing the pressing
challenges within the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI).

"From the passage of the Electricity Act 2023 by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu
to the strategic engagements at the Ministerial Retreat and the 8th Africa
Energy Market Place (AEMP) that followed, we have remained focused on
crafting a policy framework that not only responds to current realities but
also anticipates future needs," Mr Adelabu said.

He explained that the NIEP-SIP is a comprehensive document that outlines
policy interventions across the entire value chain, from generation and
transmission to distribution and off-grid segments of the sector required
for the transformation of Nigeria's electricity sector to a sector that is
resilient, efficient, and capable of driving the national development
agenda.

He added that the NIEP-SIP places a strong emphasis on achieving improved
sector liquidity, creating an enabling environment for investment to thrive,
integrating renewable energy sources, enhancing grid reliability, ensuring
equitable access to electricity for all Nigerians, particularly those in
underserved communities, improving local content and capacity across the
value chain, and gender mainstreaming in the sector.

"As we move forward with the implementation of this policy, I want to assure
you that we are committed to transparency, accountability, and inclusivity
at every stage.

"The success of this policy will require the continued collaboration of all
stakeholders, and I urge everyone to remain engaged and supportive as we
work together to realise its objectives," he said.

Mr Adelabu expressed gratitude to stakeholders, industry experts, and
development partners who contributed to the policy's development.

"Your commitment and hard work have laid a strong foundation for a brighter
energy future for Nigeria. I am confident that, with your continued support,
we will achieve our goal of transforming the Nigerian power sector into one
that is not only self-sustaining but also a catalyst for economic growth and
social development," he added.

-Premium Times.

Nigeria: Experts Discuss Roles of Mobile Technology, Media in Achieving
Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Nigeria

The experts urged agriculturists to leverage different media
formats/technology in disseminating climate-smart information to farmers
promptly.

Relevant Agricultural and Climate Change experts met in Abuja to discuss the
roles of mobile technology and media in achieving climate-resilient
agriculture and inclusive climate action.

This is amidst the devastating impacts of extreme weather events (flooding,
drought) on food production, women and People Living with Disabilities (PWD)
in the country.

The experts spoke at the "high-level advocacy dialogue/flood impact report
launch" organised by HEDA Resource Centre in Abuja on Wednesday.

The event, themed "Protecting Smallholder Farmers and Vulnerable Communities
from Climate-Related Shocks: Implementing Early Warning Systems for Food
Security and Livelihood Resilience in Nigeria", brought together several
relevant agricultural/climate change experts from the private and public
sectors, farmers and academia.

In his remarks, the Executive Secretary of HEDA Resource Centre, Sulaimon
Arigbabu, noted that the theme could not be more timely, as climate risks
continue to escalate the need for robust, culturally-relevant Early Warning
Systems (EWS).

"Today's event is part of activities to sign post our work around climate
justice, under the African Activists for Climate Justice Project, a 5-year
pan African funding by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands,"
he said.

Early warning system (EWS) is explained as the set of capacities needed to
generate and disseminate timely and meaningful climate warning information
to enable individuals, communities and organisations threatened by hazards
to take necessary proactive actions and act swiftly to reduce the
possibility of harm or losses.

On Wednesday, Mr Arigbabu explained that EWS are vital in providing
actionable information that can empower farmers and communities to
anticipate, prepare for, and mitigate the impacts of climate-induced
disasters such as floods and droughts.

He emphasised that the aim of the event is to spotlight the current EWS in
Nigeria, identify coverage gaps, accessibility and effectiveness,
particularly for smallholder farmers.

"Our mission is to change the narrative of communicating condolences to our
vulnerable communities after each climate induced disaster, but rather
communicating warnings and knowledge that help build resilience in these
communities," he said.

Roles of mobile technology/media in climate-resilient agriculture

During the first panel discussion of the event moderated by James Jayeoba, a
Professor of Sustainable Agriculture in Nasarawa State University, the
panellists discussed the theme "leveraging Mobile Technology for
Climate-Resilient Agriculture in Nigeria".

One of the discussants, Abdulwarees Solanke, a media practitioner, said to
enhance the delivery of climate services to smallholder farmers, there is a
need for the media to profile those in farming communities and identify the
quantum of media technology in the possession of farmers.

By doing so, he said, the media will be able to mainstream information to
rural farmers effectively, coupled with adequate engagement of relevant
researchers in the country.

"The use of radio for the passage of agricultural messages is very critical.
Almost all radio stations in the country have programs on environmental and
agriculture issues," Mr Solanke said.

He urged critical stakeholders in the agricultural sector to research
available free radio programs they can leverage to disseminate vital
information for farmers.

On her part, the Chief Executive Officer of Rashak Farms Agri-Allied
Limited, Rahmah Aderinoye, said cultural barriers and lack of inclusiveness
is preventing women farmers from assessing climate risks information
seamlessly.

"Cultural barriers are preventing women from participating in the trainers
courses. This is why we give preference to women and PWDs in our
outreaches," she said.

She explained that there is a need to encourage women farmers by providing
them with necessary resources and support because the sector is dominated by
men.

Mrs Aderinoye said one of the ways to support women farmers is to ensure
that weather forecasts information are passed through mobile devices to
women farmers in a timely manner.

In his intervention, Adetoro Akindele, the Vice President, Commercial of
Thrive Agric, said there is a need to take advantage of social media to
disseminate relevant climate-related information to farmers in the country.

"Short video clips(reels) message goes a long way in disseminating
information and they are not gender biased," he said.

He noted that in some tribes across the country, women are not permitted to
look at men in the face, and as such they are disenfranchised.

Based on this, the expert said there is a need to empower women and
encourage them by providing reliable information timely to the women.

Mr Akindele said there is a need to engage telecommunication companies to
help in passing relevant climate risks information to farmers across the
country.

In his swift intervention, Yusuf Kelani, an aide to President Bola Tinubu on
Climate Change Matters, said the government is working towards building a
climate alert system to capture everyone within the Nigerian territory.

"The government is considering sending early warning system information to
everyone in the country via their mobile phones," he said.

-Premium Times.

Nigeria: Google Search for Use of AI Increased By 40% in Nigeria - Report

A recent report released by Google, shows that Artificial Intelligence (AI)
was searched more than ever in 2024 in Nigeria and around the world, with
search coming from Nigerian users.

According to the report, search trends in Nigeria related to AI continue
with searches for 'what is AI' increasing more than 30 per cent, while
searches for 'how to use AI' have increased 40 per cent.

As at August, new search trends from Nigeria show that people in Nigeria
continue to search for AI more than ever before.

Search interest in "AI" has reached a record high around the world and in
Nigeria, where searches have more than doubled (+130 per cent) since the
same period last year. Searches in Nigeria for 'what is AI' also increased
by 30 per cent, while searches for 'how to use AI' increased by 40 per cent.
Nigeria has the sixth highest search interest in AI in Africa - and ranks
25th in the world, the report said.

Nigerians are looking to use AI to build their careers and creativity - with
trending searches including 'create a logo with AI', 'create CV with AI',
'design website with AI', 'design a flyer with AI' and 'create slides with
AI' - all of which were 'breakout' searches in 2024, growing over 5,000 per
cent in interest since this time last year.

Searches for 'AI and courses' have increased by 50 per cent, while top
questions include 'is AI hard to learn', 'how to learn AI' and 'how to
access and learn about AI', the report further said.

Search interest in cybersecurity and AI also nearly doubled across Nigeria
(+80 per cent), while people showed a clear interest in the future of AI for
science. Searches for AI and healthcare more than doubled (+140%), while
searches for AI and medicine increased by 50 per cent and searches for AI
and STEM and AI and hospitals both increased by 60 per cent.

Giving further details of AI, West Africa Director at Google, Olumide
Balogun, said: "AI has the potential to create opportunities - from the
extraordinary to the everyday - for everyone: bringing new waves of
innovation, social and economic progress. So it's no surprise that the
people of Nigeria are already looking to make the most of this
transformational technology - finding ways for it to boost their career,
creativity, and society."

-This Day.

Africa: Facing Barriers in West, China to Push Green Products At Africa
Summit

Johannesburg — As the West clamps down on imports of green technology
products from China, the world's biggest manufacturer is looking for new
markets, and that is a topic analysts say will dominate the agenda next
month at a Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, or FOCAC, in Beijing.

The high-level meeting, held every three years, will be the first since the
world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic and China suffered its own economic
slowdown. It also comes amid growing geopolitical rivalry and as China
shifts the priorities of its global infrastructure-building project, the
Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, to what it has dubbed "the green BRI" and
"small is beautiful" projects.

The theme of the meeting, which takes place from September 4-6, is "Joining
hands to promote modernization," and Lin Jian, a Chinese foreign ministry
spokesman, said it will "open up new vistas for China-Africa relations." One
of these areas, according to China's ambassador to South Africa, Wu Peng,
will be "to support Africa's green development."

While many African countries -- some of which are facing energy crises --
will welcome help with their transition to renewables, Paul Nantulya, a
research associate for the Africa Center for Strategic Studies in
Washington, explained that China also "benefits greatly."

"If you look at green growth for instance, the technology which is marketed
to African countries, which African countries have to buy, either through
loan finance or directly through commercial entities, that's one way in
which China benefits," he told VOA.

And China needs new buyers.

China's overproduction woes

China is the largest producer of solar batteries in the world and in 2023
accounted for three quarters of global investment in overall green
technology manufacturing, according to data from the International Energy
Agency. It also produced more than half of the electric vehicles sold
worldwide last year.

Its lead in these industries has resulted in rising competition with the
West. The United States and European Union have enacted protectionist
policies, increasing tariffs on products from China including electric
vehicles, batteries, solar panels and critical minerals. Europe and the U.S.
want to boost their own manufacturing and create jobs.

"We see China's products are increasingly facing restrictions in the U.S.
and Europe, and I believe China will be looking for alternative markets in
Africa," Cliff Mboya, an analyst with the Pretoria-based China Global South
Project, told VOA.

However, he said African governments could use China's woes on that front as
a bargaining chip. While China is the continent's biggest trade partner, it
exports a lot more to Africa than it imports.

"We know that China previously promised more market access for African
products, so as China looks for the African market for some of its products
that are facing high tariffs and limitations in the West...it presents an
opportunity to negotiate for more access of African products into the
Chinese market," Mboya said.

The West is concerned about possible "dumping" by China, in which it floods
foreign markets with cheap exports to get rid of its global trade surplus.
Mboya said that should also be a concern for African governments.

"We should also be able to negotiate and ensure it doesn't lead to dumping
of these products into the continent because we also need to create
employment for our youth and also ensure that we are also able to produce
some basic goods in the continent," he said.

In sub-Saharan Africa, 70% of the population is under the age of 30,
according to data from the United Nations.

Ambassador Wu didn't mince his words when talking about the "sensitive
issue" at an event in South Africa earlier in August.

"In 2023, China also produced nearly 9.5 million electricity vehicles, EVs,
and exported nearly 1.8 million EVs to the world," he said. "Some people
blame China for so-called overcapacity."

"Europeans or the U.S. already -- or will -- levy high tariff rates against
these EVs."

"Let's wait and see alright? If they can catch up to produce more EVs,
affordable for the customers in a very quick way...no problem. But if they
don't, I think it's a little bit unreasonable," he continued.

China, however, is facing a mismatch in supply and demand for its products.
Last year, its solar cell production doubled global demand and in July,
major solar panel company Longi Green Energy Technology logged a net loss of
some $750 million.

"There's significant parallels between the excess capacity China faces now
in its clean technology sectors, as with the excess capacity a decade ago in
heavy industry and infrastructure, which was when the BRI was initially
launched," Yunnan Chen, a researcher at London-based research group ODI,
told VOA.

China used the BRI to "offshore" its domestic industries and build markets
for its infrastructure in developing countries, and it is now doing the same
with renewable energy, she added.

"Tariffs from Western markets is another accentuating pressure that will
make middle-income emerging markets even more important for Chinese goods,
and even for the offshoring of production lines and supply chains to be able
to access EU and Western markets via third countries - as we're already
seeing in Vietnam and Mexico," she said.

Pivot to Africa

Chinese Ambassador Wu said the FOCAC will focus the needs of African
countries in the energy transition and that "China will encourage Chinese
enterprises to invest."

He said that new energy cooperation could become a growth driver and a
highlight in economic and trade cooperation between China and South Africa
specifically.

But Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in
Washington, said FOCAC's focus on green technology and energy wouldn't
necessarily be a boon for Africa.

"It does not necessarily put Africa in an advantaged position in the global
supply chain. For example, China has a number of lithium assets (mines) in
Africa and that technically could be called green energy and technology
cooperation between China and Africa," she said.

"Traditionally, Africa had been a source of raw materials for China, such as
oil and minerals. If now it is lithium and other critical minerals used for
green energy, how is it different from before?" she added. "Mining and
processing whose benefit for locals are debatable."

Besides green technology, the analysts expect FOCAC will also focus on areas
including agricultural modernization and trade, information technology and
connectivity, and education and training. African leaders will also be
looking to get a one-on-one with China's leader, Xi Jinping.

Some African countries, which borrowed heavily from China and are saddled
with debt, are facing pressure at home.

Kenya, for example, has been rocked by anti-government protests. But experts
say they doubt African leaders will push for debt restructuring publicly, to
avoid embarrassing China. VOA.

Ethiopia: From Water to Power - Ethiopia Activates Key Turbines At GERD Amid
Regional Diplomatic Maneuvering, Experts Examine What Lies Ahead

Addis Abeba — In a significant stride towards bolstering Ethiopia's energy
independence, a pivotal development emerged from a place called Guba, which
is located in the Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State late last week.

In a televised address on 24 August 2024, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed heralded
the successful activation of the third and fourth turbines of the Grand
Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The activation of two additional turbines last week, each with a capacity of
400 MW, has augmented the dam's power generation capacity, raising its total
installed capacity to 1,550 MW.

Located on the Blue Nile River, GERD is designed to have a total installed
capacity of 5,150 MW when fully completed.

Construction on GERD commenced in April 2011, and the project's reservoir is
anticipated to reach its planned capacity of 74 billion cubic meters.

As stated by Prime Minister Abiy on his official Facebook page, the dam
currently holds 60 billion cubic meters of water and is expected to reach 71
billion by December 2024, enabling the activation of three additional
turbines. This will bring the total number of functional turbines to seven.

Prime Minister Abiy noted that, in addition to the uninterrupted flow of the
river, the dam's spillways have been opened, releasing an additional 2,800
cubic meters of water per second.

Ethiopian authorities also emphasize that more positive developments have
emerged from Guba for the lower Nile basin countries, in particular, for
Sudan and Egypt.

"GERD plays a crucial role in managing water flow, mitigating flood risks,
and ensuring that downstream nations receive a steady supply of water,
particularly during droughts," the Premier Abiy noted.

The activation of the third and fourth turbines of the GERD followed closely
on the heels of another significant development concerning the Nile River:
the ratification of the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) by
the fifth upper stream country.

In July 2024, South Sudan's parliament ratified the CFA, joining Ethiopia,
Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Burundi in endorsing this agreement.

The CFA establishes the rights and obligations for the development of the
Nile Basin's water resources and promotes the equitable and reasonable
utilization of the river.

Ethiopia has played a pivotal role in the creation of the CFA, primarily due
to its opposition to the colonial-era treaties signed by Egypt and Sudan in
1929 and 1959. These treaties, which heavily favor Egypt and Sudan, have not
been recognized by other countries in the Nile basin. Ethiopia in particular
has strongly contested these agreements.

For the CFA to come into full effect and lead to the establishment of the
Nile Basin Commission, a minimum of six countries out of the total 11 must
ratify the agreement.

Gashaw Ayferam (PhD), a researcher in water politics, anticipates that the
primary motivation for countries that have not yet signed the CFA is to
secure the most favorable benefits for themselves.

"Given their limited advantages under the colonial agreements, these
countries are likely to seek a more equitable distribution of resources,"
Gashaw asserts.

A country like Ethiopia, with its substantial water resources, should not
have to beg its neighbors to join a cooperation framework." Gashaw Ayferam
(PhD), a researcher in water politics

Nevertheless, Prime Minister Abiy highlighted the significance of South
Sudan's ratification, emphasizing that it represents a crucial step towards
regional cooperation in the Nile Basin.

The Premier further highlighted, "This diplomatic milestone marks a
significant step in our collective aspiration for regional cooperation in
the Nile Basin."

"The ratification will provide impetus for working towards the common good
of our people through the establishment of the Nile Basin Commission," he
added.

While the CFA holds the potential for benefits, experts remain divided on
the specific advantages it will offer to Ethiopia and the other upstream
countries.

Some experts argue that the formation of a formal institution and the
establishment of a legal framework are crucial for ensuring equitable water
sharing among the Nile basin countries.

One of these experts, Asrat Berhanu, a hydrology expert, asserts that
implementing the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) will benefit Ethiopia
and represent a significant setback for Egypt, which has long maintained a
unilateral claim over the Nile.

"The progress observed in the dam's construction demonstrates Ethiopia's
commitment to regional cooperation and the development rights of upstream
countries," he emphasizes.

Gashaw, the researcher in water policy, offers a differing viewpoint.

He contends that Ethiopia, as the primary source of the Nile River, should
not be compelled to seek a cooperation agreement.

Gashaw cites examples such as Turkey and China, where the lower basin
countries have initiated cooperation rather than the nations that produce
the water.

"A country like Ethiopia, with its substantial water resources, should not
have to beg its neighbors to join a cooperation framework," Gashaw asserts.
"Instead, it should insist on the establishment of a formal institution and
legal framework."

Gashaw also underscores the inherent contradictions within the Nile Basin
Cooperation Framework, particularly between the principles of equitable and
reasonable utilization of water and the obligation to avoid causing
significant harm to downstream countries.

He contends that these conflicting principles have been inadequately
reconciled, potentially leading to future tensions.

Gashaw further observes that both Ethiopia and Egypt have failed to ratify
the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International
Watercourses, a treaty that many nations, including Turkey and China, have
rejected due to its perceived limitations on their development potential.

While he acknowledges that the principle of equitable and reasonable use of
water could be advantageous for Ethiopia, Gashaw expresses concern that the
framework may use the country's current water usage as a baseline, thereby
potentially restricting its future development.

Egypt's potential next moves

In addition to advocating for more upstream countries to endorse the CFA,
Ethiopia has been engaged in negotiations with Sudan and Egypt regarding the
use and management of the GERD.

Although these negotiations were temporarily interrupted, they resumed in
July 2023, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President
Abdel Fatah el-Sisi met in Cairo and agreed to finalize the agreement on the
first filling and annual operation of the GERD within four months.

However, despite four rounds of talks--two in Cairo and two in Addis
Ababa--the anticipated resolution was not achieved.

The situation deteriorated further when Egypt announced its withdrawal from
the GERD negotiations, accusing Ethiopia of a "persistent refusal to accept
any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the
interests of all three countries."

However, the interruption of negotiations among the three countries did not
hinder Ethiopia from continuing its efforts to expand its power generation
capacity.

The recent announcement of the successful activation of two additional
turbines at the GERD serves as a testament to Ethiopia's progress toward
achieving one of its major ambitious energy goals.

Gashaw explained that as the filling of the dam progresses, the pressure on
Ethiopia diminishes, and the international community becomes more likely to
acknowledge the normal flow of water.

He argued that the primary concerns lie with the downstream countries,
particularly Egypt, given their related apprehensions.

Gashaw also expresses optimism that as the water filling process concludes,
the contentious issues surrounding the dam will diminish.

He believes that the continued filling will have positive effects, including
reduced flooding, increased irrigation, decreased human and social risks
associated with flooding, and enhanced electricity generation capacity for
hydropower dams.

To uphold its rights under the 1959 Treaty of Right of Way, some experts
suggest that Egypt may pursue a strategy of increased engagement with
neighboring countries. This could involve strengthening military agreements
with Sudan, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya, and Burundi, as well as establishing
military bases in these regions.

Other scholars also argue that Egypt might seek to diplomatically isolate
Ethiopia and hinder its access to international support. They emphasize that
propaganda campaigns and efforts to portray Egypt positively within the
international community could be integral to this strategy.

Gashaw suggests that Egypt's efforts to destabilize Sudan and its
involvement in conflicts with Ethiopia and Somaliland exemplify its
potential strategies to maintain its position.

"Egypt may attempt to isolate Ethiopia diplomatically, leveraging its larger
size and closer proximity to other neighboring countries," he argues. "This
could involve strategies such as blockades or military threats."

Gashaw further cautions that Egypt might resort to cyber attacks or even
direct military action if the opportunity arises. "Such actions could
destabilize the region and divert Ethiopia's resources away from water
development," he concludes.

-Addis Standard.

Africa: Global Poverty Grows As Super-Rich Get Richer Faster

Kuala Lumpur — Oxfam expects the world's first trillionaire within a decade
and poverty to end in 229 years! The wealth of the world's five richest men
has more than doubled from 2020, as 4.8 billion people became poorer.

The 2024 Oxfam report entitled Inequality Inc. warned, "We're witnessing the
beginnings of a decade of division" as billions cope with the "pandemic,
inflation and war, while billionaires' fortunes boom".

"This inequality is no accident; the billionaire class is ensuring
corporations deliver more wealth to them at the expense of everyone else",
noted Oxfam International's Amitabh Behar.

Driving inequality

Summarising the report, Tanupriya Singh noted gaps between rich and poor,
and between wealthy nations and developing countries had grown again for the
first time in the 21st century as the super-rich became much richer.

The Global North has 69% of all wealth worldwide and 74% of billionaire
riches. Oxfam notes contemporary wealth concentration began with colonialism
and empire.

Since then, "neo-colonial relationships with the Global South persist,
perpetuating economic imbalances and rigging the economic rules in favour of
rich nations".

The report notes, "economies across the Global South are locked into
exporting primary commodities, from copper to coffee, for use by
monopolistic industries in the Global North, perpetuating a colonial-style
'extractivist' model".

Inequalities within rich nations have grown, with marginalised communities
worse off, giving rise to rival ethno-populisms and vicious identity
politics.

This inequality is no accident

Seventy per cent of the world's largest corporations have a billionaire as
principal shareholder or chief executive. These firms are worth over $10
trillion, which exceeds the total output of Latin America and Africa.

The incomes of the rich have grown much faster than for most others. Hence,
the top 1% of shareholders own 43% of financial assets worldwide - half in
Asia, 48% in the Middle East, and 47% in Europe.

Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, 148 of the world's largest corporations made
$1.8 trillion in profits. Meanwhile, 82% of 96 large corporations' profits
went to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends.

Only 0.4% of the world's largest companies have agreed to pay minimum wages
to those contributing to their profits. Unsurprisingly, the poorer half of
the world earned only 8.5% of world income in 2022.

The wages of almost 800 million workers have not kept up with inflation. In
2022 and 2023, they lost $1.5 trillion, equivalent to an average of 25 days
of lost wages per employee.

In addition to income inequality, the 2024 Oxfam Report noted workers face
mounting challenges due to stressful workplace conditions.

The gap between the incomes of the ultra-rich and workers is so huge that a
female health or social worker would need 1,200 years to earn what a Fortune
100 company CEO makes annually!

Besides lower wages for women, unpaid care work subsidises the world economy
by at least $10.8 trillion yearly, thrice what Oxfam terms 'tech industry'.

Monopoly power

Oxfam notes that monopoly power has worsened world inequality. Thus, a few
corporations influence and even control national economies, governments,
laws, and policies in their own interest.

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) study found monopoly power responsible
for 76% of the fall in the labour share of US manufacturing income.

Behar noted, "Monopolies harm innovation and crush workers and smaller
businesses. The world hasn't forgotten how pharma monopolies deprived
millions of people of COVID-19 vaccines, creating a racist vaccine apartheid
while minting a new club of billionaires".

Between 1995 and 2015, 60 pharmaceutical companies merged into ten Big
Pharma giants. Although innovation is typically subsidised with public
funds, pharmaceutical monopolies price-gouge with impunity.

Oxfam notes the Ambani fortune in India comes from monopolies in many
sectors enabled by the Modi regime. Ambani's son's recent extravagant
wedding celebrations flaunted extreme wealth concentration worldwide.

The 2021 Oxfam report estimated that "an unskilled worker would need 10,000
years to earn what Ambani made in an hour during the pandemic and three
years to earn what he made in a second".

Unsurprisingly, the 2023 Oxfam Report noted, "India's richest 1% own around
40% of the country's wealth, while over 200 million people continue to live
in poverty".

Fiscal subordination

Corporations have increased their value through a "sustained and highly
effective war on taxation ... depriving the public of critical resources".

As many corporations increased their profits, the average corporate tax rate
dropped from 23% to 17% between 1975 and 2019. Meanwhile, around a trillion
dollars went into tax havens in 2022 alone.

Of course, falling corporate tax rates are also due to "the broader
neoliberal agenda promoted by corporations and their wealthy owners, often
alongside Global North countries and international institutions such as the
World Bank".

Meanwhile, pressures for fiscal austerity have grown as government tax
revenue has declined relatively for decades. High government indebtedness
with corporate tax evasion and avoidance have exacerbated austerity
policies.

Private corporations profit from discounted public asset sales

Underfunded public services have adversely affected consumers and employees,
especially health and social protection. Higher interest rates have worsened
debt crises in developing nations.

With governments fiscally constrained from sustaining public services,
privatisation advocates have become more influential, gaining greater
control of public resources by various means.

Private corporations profit from discounted public asset salesThis
inequality is no accident, public-private partnerships, and government
contracts to deliver public policies and programmes.

"Major development agencies and institutions... have found common ground
with investors by embracing approaches that 'de-risk' such arrangements by
shifting financial risk from the private to the public sector", the report
states.

Access to essential public services should be universal. Insisting on
private profit-making considerations deprives marginalised communities of
access, worsening inequalities.

Siti Maisarah Zainurin will join a Malaysian government research institute
after completing work at Khazanah Research Institute.

IPS UN Bureau

South Africa's Coal Workers Face an Uncertain Future - Mpumalanga Study
Flags They're Being Left Out of the Green Transition

South Africa is on the path to decarbonisation - doing away with burning
coal and other fossil fuels and moving towards renewable, clean energy, such
as solar and wind power. However, the coal industry employs 91,000 people.
If these workers lost their jobs and were not transferred to new jobs in
renewable energy and other sectors, this would devastate entire communities.

Recent estimates by the renewable energy industry say the shift from coal
has the potential to create 250,000 jobs by 2047. Energy transition
researcher Nthabiseng Mohlakoana was part of a group of Centre for
Sustainability Transitions academics who asked workers living near a coal
mine and coal-fired power plant what they knew about the coal industry
winding down and the renewable energy transition, and whether they thought
it would provide decent jobs.

What is the biggest problem for coal industry workers in this transition?

Our study's aim was to draw attention to how decent work is understood by
those who are working with fossil fuels in South Africa, and whose jobs will
be phased out.

We interviewed 13 women and 38 men who were current and former coal mine
workers and electricity power plant workers from KwaGuqa township. This is a
low-income community in Emalahleni, a coal-intensive area in South Africa's
Mpumalanga province that is home to 20 collieries. The group were working as
coal cutters, machine operators, welders, electricians, boiler makers,
underground water pumpers, drivers and coal conveyor belt operators. Some
had worked for coal mines for between 10 and 30 years.

These workers said they had not been consulted about how the transition
would affect them. Their biggest concern was the lack of information: they
had not been told how they would be reskilled for renewable energy jobs. In
areas where coal mines had already closed, the workers had observed that
mine workers had not been retrained or placed in new jobs in renewable
energy. This resulted in a lot of fear, apprehension and anxiety. Some coal
mine workers felt that they were too old to learn new skills and gain new
experience in unfamiliar industries.

Workers stressed that decent jobs were important, with benefits such as
pensions, medical insurance, and a safe and healthy working environment.
They said these should be presented prior to phasing out coal jobs.

Read more: An alternative to propping up coal power plants: Retrain workers
for solar

Among renewable energy sector employers, there is no agreement on what
decent work means or even what a job entails. The International Labour
Organisation defines decent work as one that considers workers' rights,
ensures that workers are protected from harmful working conditions, pays
workers fairly based on their cost of living and provides promotion
opportunities.

The workers we interviewed did not regard jobs in the coal mines and power
plants as decent work; 80% stated they would not want their children to do
the same jobs, because of the dangers associated with this kind of work.
However, they were concerned about the loss of jobs. If the coal mines and
power plants closed, these job losses would have a trickle down effect on
other industries and people who depended on income earned by the workers.

What kind of decent jobs should be created in renewable energy?

This is mainly dependent on the local context. In South Africa, renewable
energy jobs include work on the construction of solar and wind plants, and
setting up infrastructure for green hydrogen and large scale battery storage
facilities. Operations and management jobs are fewer and they require a
higher skill level.

Job creation and decent work are not the same thing. Decent work refers to
job quality and working conditions. Job creation is associated with the
number of jobs created.

As South Africa becomes more and more dependent on renewable energy, this
industry must provide skills, training and better security, fairness and
just working conditions. The people we interviewed said that factories
manufacturing renewable energy components should be set up, and that these
might even create more jobs than the coal mines did.

There is indeed potential to create jobs in manufacturing instead of
importing renewable energy parts. There are also jobs in researching new
innovations. As the demand for renewable energy knowledge and skills
increases, there should be more jobs in renewable energy education and
training.

What are some of the training gaps?

South Africa began its transition to clean energy when the Renewable Energy
Independent Power Producer Programme was launched by the government in 2010.
This programme has procured renewable energy from private companies through
a competitive bidding process for the past 14 years. A renewable energy
education curriculum should have been developed then and integrated into
schools and training colleges. Renewable energy education cannot happen only
in institutions of higher learning, because only a few have access to such
knowledge.

Another gap is the integration of the gender agenda on the energy transition
dialogue and planning. This has led to women being left out and not
considered for training and skilling opportunities, because they are in the
minority in coal mines and power plants.

What solutions did your research find?

We concluded that the government must regulate the renewable energy sector
so that it offers workers decent work. Jobs and skills in the low-carbon
economy must be demystified so that workers know exactly which skills and
qualifications are required for these jobs. This is crucial for building
confidence and facilitating a smoother transition. It is in line with the
decent work principle of there being adequate opportunities for work.

The government must also provide funding and subsidies for organisations and
companies in renewable energy that commit to creating decent work.

Job losses in South Africa are a sensitive subject because of the high
unemployment rate of 32.9%. South Africa is also the most unequal country in
the world. The country's transition to renewable energy is thus very
complex. It intersects very closely with the country's history of Black
workers' poor working conditions and pay during apartheid, and with the
current state of the economy which has produced high levels of inequality,
poverty and unemployment.

Apart from the technical shift to green energy, South Africa's climate
change policies emphasise that the transition must be "just". Creating
decent work in the renewable energy sector must therefore move away from
oppressive employment conditions and towards offering workers a decent share
in the economy.

Nthabiseng Mohlakoana, Researcher, Stellenbosch University

Uganda: Financial Intelligence Authority Vows to Keep Uganda Off Grey List

The Financial Intelligence Authority (FIA), the government body responsible
for combating money laundering and financing of terrorism activities, has
come up with a strategy aimed at ensuring that Uganda is not included on the
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.

In February this year, the FAFT plenary, at its meeting in Paris, France,
concluded that Uganda had fully implemented its action plan of addressing
the strategic Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Financing of Terrorism
deficiencies, which had been previously identified during evaluations.

As such, Uganda has been scrapped off the list of countries under increased
monitoring (grey list). According to Bright Besigye, the manager of
International Relations at FIA, in 2016, Uganda was assessed by the FAFT and
found that the country had weaknesses within its systems.

And because of those weaknesses, it was placed under an observation period
which ended in 2019. By the end of 2019, Uganda had been able to demonstrate
significant progress, particularly at the technical level with the amendment
of the Terrorism Act to make terrorism financing a crime; increased training
of law enforcement forces; increased staffing of the financial intelligence
unit; and an increased budget.

However, there was still lack of effectiveness in the implementation of FAFT
standards and hence the country was placed on the grey list in February
2020.

"When you are put on the grey list, financial institutions in other
countries subject you to enhanced due diligence, and this has an impact on
the cost of doing international business and how our nationals access
foreign credit. It was, therefore, a big concern for us and government and
that is why we had to strive hard to get off of it before being
blacklisted," Besigye said.

The Post Grey List Exit Strategy, which was developed through the ministry
of Finance, will see FIA increase awareness about money laundering and
terrorism financing activities. The aim here is to have all stakeholders at
each stage such as prevention, detection, investigation, prosecution,
conviction and recovering proceeds understand their work, and have the right
tools and skills to do their job.

The authority also wants to establish the National Money Laundering Safety
Task Force under the minister of Finance to tackle financial crimes. The
ministry has embarked on developing a successor strategy for the current FIA
Strategic Plan, which expires in 2025.

The new strategy will bring on board measures that can deal with the current
money laundering threats. The post-exit strategy further looks at building
and increasing the capacity of other institutions to deal with money
laundering and financing of terrorism crimes through training and
stakeholder engagements.

"Recently, we held meetings with the leadership of the Uganda Police, the
ministry of Internal Affairs, the judiciary, Bank of Uganda and several
others. We want to build the capacity of other institutions so that it is
not only the work of the FIA to combat these crimes," Besigye added.

Uganda will undergo another mutual evaluation by the FAFT in 2028 and the
FIA believes that this Post Exit Grey List Strategy will enable it pass that
assessment.

"Our aim is to make sure that by 2028, we are able to avoid another grey
list by partly implementing this strategy and making sure that all the
requirements as expected of us are largely met," Besigye noted.

He further explained that "as a country, we are striving to meet the minimum
standards, apply the right measures, evolve as the crimes evolve and work
with an all-government approach to deal with the crimes in their entirety."
Observer.

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