Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 14 February 2024

Thu Feb 15 09:01:47 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 14 February 2024

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 
ZSE commentary

ZSE record losses for the fourth time in a row.

The market recorded losses for the fourth consecutive session as the primary
All Share Index dipped 4.72% to 524,886.21pts while, the Blue-Chip Index
fell 6.07% to 230,332.70pts. The Agriculture Index lost 1.32% to 1,526.11pts
while, the Mid Cap Index dropped 0.77% to 2,222,842.18pts. Milk processor
Dairibord led the laggards of the day on a 14.91% drop to $1,300.0000,
followed by Econet that slipped 13.87% to close at $1,834.4083 on waning
demand. Beverage giant Delta trimmed 11.55% to $6,987.4321 while, FBC
Holdings Limited eased 10.96% to close at $2,850.0000. Brick manufacturer
Willdale capped the fallers of the day on a 6.72% slid to end the day pegged
at $55.0000. In contrast, the trio of Edgars, Fidelity and Cafca added a
similar 15% to close at $437.0500, $540.9000 and $7,604.2500 respectively.
Hotelier RTG surged 15.00% to settle at $391.0500 while, tea producer
Tanganda capped the winners of the day on a 2.14% uplift to end the day
pegged at $2,175.5714. The market closed on a negative breadth of five after
six counters recorded gains against eleven that faltered.

Activity aggregates advanced in the session as volume traded ballooned
247.82% to 25.01m shares while, turnover soared 43.61% to $7.36b. The top
volume drivers of the day were Zimre Holdings Limited (86.03%), Nampak
(7.15%) and FMP (3.82%). The trio of ZHL, Nampak and Delta contributed a
combined 76.92%. A total of 2,622,194 units exchanged hands in the ETF
section. Morgan and Co Multi Sector ETF retreated 0.01% to close at
$599.9522 while, OMTT ETF inched up 0.09% to end the day pegged at $80.2333.
Tigere REIT declined 1.31% to settle at $597.0000 after 385 shares exchanged
hands.-efesecurities

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand firms after retail sales

(Reuters) - The South African rand firmed on Wednesday after of December
retail sales figures, having weakened more than 1% against the dollar the
day before.

At 1504 GMT, the rand traded at 19.0900 against the dollar , about 0.3%
stronger than its previous close.

The dollar was down about 0.06% against a basket of global currencies. It
had reached a three-month peak on Tuesday after U.S. inflation rose more
than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold
interest rates in March.

-

South African retail sales (ZARET=ECI), opens new tab rose 2.7% year on year
in December, a surprise after economists polled by Reuters had expected them
to fall by 0.7%.

On a month-on-month basis, sales increased 1.4%, Statistics South Africa
figures showed on Wednesday.

On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index (.JTOPI), opens new tab
closed 0.1% lower. South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was weaker,
with the yield up 5.5 basis points to 10.165%.

Nigeria

Naira depreciates against US dollar as FX supply drops 

Naira depreciated against the US dollar on Wednesday as the supply of
foreign currencies dropped by 56.58 per cent to $117.87 million.

Data from FMDQ showed that the Naira depreciated to N1503.38 per US dollar
on Wednesday from N1,499.07 on Tuesday.

This represents a N3.93 loss or a 0.26 per cent decrease.

Similarly, at the Parallel Market, Naira dropped to N1,545 per Dollar on
Wednesday from N1,517 on Tuesday.

The depreciation came after the Naira appreciated marginally against the
dollar at the official FX market on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, CBN governor, Olayemi Cardoso assured of exchange rate stability
when he spoke at an interface with the Senate Joint Committee on Banking,
Insurance and Financial Institutions in Abuja on Friday last week.

DAILY POST reports that since the Central Bank of Nigeria introduced
'Financial Markets Price Transparency and Market Notice of a Revision to the
FMDQ FX Market Rate Pricing Methodology' and other reforms on January 29th,
the country's exchange rate hovers around N1,400 to over 1,500 per US
dollar.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global  Markets

US dollar drifts lower, consolidates gains; seen rising further

(Reuters) - The dollar slid from a fresh three-month high against a major
currency basket on Wednesday, as investors consolidated gains following the
previous session's hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report.

The inflation data for January pushed back bets on a first Federal Reserve
rate cut to the middle of the year.

The greenback also weakened against the yen after Japan's top currency
officials warned against what they described as rapid and speculative yen
moves.

-

The dollar eased 0.2% to 150.52 yen , not too far from a three-month peak
hit against the Japanese currency on Tuesday. The U.S. unit has added about
10 yen in price since the start of this year.

Since Tuesday's data showed that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) gained
3.1% in January on a year-on-year basis, compared with an expected 2.9%
rise, fed funds futures have priced in no rate cut in March and a nearly 80%
chance of easing at the June meeting, according LSEG's rate probability app.
Two weeks ago, markets had expected the first rate cut to happen in May.

-

Futures are also pricing in about three rate cuts of 25 basis points each
this year, down from about five cuts two weeks earlier.

The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency's value against six
other major currencies, slipped 0.1% to 104.72, having touched a fresh
three-month high of 104.97.

"The stronger dollar is now the path of least resistance. We don't think
it's time yet to fade those moves," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist,
at UBS in New York.

"But things can change quickly and we have retail sales on Thursday,
although we do expect a robust number again. That should support dollar
strength."

Economists expect a 0.1% decline in U.S. retail sales in January, from a
0.6% rise in December, a Reuters poll showed.

UK INFLATION

Sterling was down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2563, after briefly touching
a more than one-week low, as data showed UK inflation did not accelerate in
January as expected. This may relieve some of the pressure on the Bank of
England (BoE) to keep rates steady for longer.

-

UK inflation stood at an annual rate of 4.0% in January, unchanged from
December, but lower than economists' forecast for a 4.2% rise.

Money markets see a 51% chance of a BoE rate cut in June and a 75% chance of
one in August, according to LSEG's rate probability app.

In Japan, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told reporters the government is
closely watching the currency market, particularly dollar/yen, adding that
"rapid moves are undesirable for the economy."

Earlier, Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said the nation would
take appropriate actions on forex if needed.

Japan intervened in the currency market three times in 2022 when the yen
plunged to 32-year lows near 152 to the dollar, buying dollars and selling
the Japanese unit.

Elsewhere, the euro gained 0.2% against the dollar to $1.0720 amid a slew of
euro zone economic data. It earlier touched a fresh three-month low of
$1.0695.

Euro zone employment rose 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year in
the fourth quarter. According to a Reuters poll, employment was expected to
rise 0.2% quarter-on-quarter and 1.1% year-on-year.

Data also showed economic growth in the region was flat in the last three
months of 2023 compared with the previous quarter and up 0.1% versus the
same period in 2022.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 4.1% to $51,612, hitting its highest since
December 2021 above $52,000.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold near 2-month low as traders assess comments from Fed officials

Gold struggled near a two-month low on Thursday, as investors assessed
comments from two U.S. Federal Reserve officials on unexpectedly high
January inflation that has tempered hopes for swift and deeper interest rate
cuts this year.

Spot gold

was flat at $1,991.70 per ounce (Oz), as of 0441 GMT, after hitting its
lowest since Dec. 13 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures

were flat at $2,003.40/Oz.

"After a sharp fall in gold prices (on Wednesday), we see some
consolidation. But today's (economic) data points will give more clarity,"
said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai.

"The dollar's move would be important to watch as it may retest its highs,
weakening gold prices."

The U.S. dollar index

held below a three-month peak. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive
for buyers in other currencies. 

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr backed the "careful approach" to
cutting rates advocated by Chair Jerome Powell, while Chicago Fed President
Austan Goolsbee warned against waiting too long.

The comments came after an upside surprise in U.S. consumer prices, which
sent bullion 1.4% lower on Tuesday in its biggest daily decline since Dec.
4.

Traders are now pricing in 97 basis points (bps) of rate cuts for this year,
up from about 85 bps early on Wednesday but down from over 110 bps prior to
the inflation data. The first cut will likely arrive in June now.

In the near term, spot gold could fall towards the $1,950 level, "which
should be a good zone to take a long position", said Kedia.

Focus is now on the U.S. retail sales data due at 1330 GMT and producer
price index numbers due on Friday. At least three more Fed officials are due
to speak later this week.

Among other precious metals, palladium

dropped 0.5% to $929.95/Oz. It rose more than 8% on Wednesday on
short-covering, regaining its premium against platinum.

Spot platinum

fell 0.3% to $886.51/Oz and silver

slipped 0.1% to $22.40.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Robert Gabriel Mugabe Youth Day

Feb 21

Nampak

AGM

Virtual (FTS Platform)

28 Feb 9am

Art

AGM

virtual (escrow platform)

March 7. 2:30

2024 auction tobacco marketing season opens

13 march

Good Friday

march 29

Easter Monday

1 April

Independence Day

April 18

Workers day

1 May

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
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investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 (c) 2024 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

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