Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 15 February 2024

Thu Feb 15 12:58:26 CAT 2024

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Major International Business Headlines Brief:::  15 February 2024 

ü  Rwanda: Inside Rwanda's New $100 Million Dairy Project

ü  Ghanaian President Replaces Finance Minister, Others in Cabinet Reshuffle

ü  West Africa Trade Will Take a Hit As Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Leave Ecowas

ü  Mozambique Wins Arbitration Case Against Indian Company

ü  Nigeria: Hardship - We Can't Pacify the People Anymore - Northern Traditional Rulers Tell FG

ü  Nigeria: FG Makes U-Turn, Says UK Lawyers Can't Practise in Nigeria

ü  Nigeria: IMF Confirms Return of Petrol Subsidy Under Tinubu

ü  Ghana: ORC to Strike 8,000 Defaulting Firms From Register By May 2024

ü  Mozambique: - Mozambican Economy Grew By Five Per Cent in 2023

ü  South Africa: Internet Connectivity Improves

ü  UK economy fell into recession at the end of 2023

ü  Faisal Islam: Should we care that the UK is in recession?

ü  Japan unexpectedly slips into a recession

ü  What is a recession and how could it affect me?

ü  Elon Musk says SpaceX's legal home moved from Delaware to Texas

 <https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> Rwanda: Inside Rwanda's New $100 Million Dairy Project

Rwanda has launched a six-year $100.37 million (approx. Rwf127 billion) dairy development project which intends, among others, to increase income of targeted rural households, and build resilience of the dairy sector against climate change as it raises its output, The New Times understands.

It seeks to deal with climate change and variabilities that influence feed and water availability for cattle, as well as issues around animal health, which make dairy farming vulnerable, and have effects on milk production and quality.

The projects is building on the previous six-year $65.1 million Rwanda Dairy Development Project (RDDP) which was launched in March 2017.

While RDDP was able to have a positive impact on the sector and its target group, challenges remain that limit the viability and sustainability of the value chain, indicates the Rwanda Dairy Development Project (RDDP) - Phase 2 Project Design Report by International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

The challenges are, among other issues, sub-optimal milk productivity levels of cows due to limited access to quality forage and water, low capacity of producers and cooperatives across value chains, poor market information and infrastructure, and lack of investment across the value chain, it indicated.

ALSO READ: Rwanda seeks to increase milk production by 34% in one year

The project's interventions will benefit approximately 175,000 rural households corresponding to 700,000 direct beneficiaries, as per the report.

On February 8, Parliament approved the financing agreement between Rwanda and IFAD for three loans totaling €18.9 million (approx. Rwf25 billion) for financing the project - as the first batch of its funding.

While justifying the relevance of the project financing in Parliament, the Minister of Finance and Economic Planning, Uzziel Ndagijimana said that the project will contribute to the advancement of the dairy sector in Rwanda.

ALSO READ: Plans underway to maximise milk production

Recognising the reality that milk production and supply fluctuate with relatively abundant produce during the rainy season, and limited supply during dry season, Ndagijimana said the project aims to "achieve a dairy farming that is resilient to climate change such that there are no milk shortage because of dry season."

According to information from IFAD, the project will contribute to "greening" the dairy value chain and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to approach or reach carbon neutrality, in line with national commitments in National Determined Contribution and the Global Methane Pledge.

Project timeframe and implementation area

RDDP-2 will be implemented over a six-year period (2024-2029) in 27 districts, which include 14 initial RDDP districts to further consolidate the transformation of the sector, and 13 new districts to upscale the process.

It will target 45 per cent female beneficiaries and 25 per cent youth beneficiaries.

The Project Development Objective is to enhance income, nutrition and resilience of rural households through a more inclusive, sustainable, digitalised and competitive dairy sector.

Expected impact at a glance

It is expected that, under the auspices of the project, 80 per cent of dairy households will increase their incomes by 30 per cent while creating 3,400 new jobs.

Also, 53 per cent of the dairy households will have adopted environmentally sustainable, climate-resilient technologies and practices, while 45 per cent of the households are expected to see improvements in their nutrition security.

It will construct or rehabilitate 164 milk storage/processing facilities, equip 95 milk collection centres with digitalised milk transaction management system, and support 85,000 people in dairy entrepreneurship through improved access to finance, the report showed.

Climate smart innovations in dairy farming

The project plans to introduce, test and disseminate climate resilient fodder varieties and technologies and promote agroforestry systems, including plantation of fodder trees, legumes, grass into grazing land and cropland.

Multiple benefits are expected from such practices, and encompass climate change mitigation through soil carbon sequestration [absorption], as well as climate change adaptation through improvements in soil fertility and increased capacity of farmers to meet production needs during dry periods and to respond to climate-induced pests and diseases, according to the report.

Also, it plans to deploy energy-efficient and GHG (greenhouse gas) emission reduction technologies for production (that is biogas, solar, among others) and promoting capacity building on carbon accounting.

Funding allocation to project components

The total project costs are estimated at $100.37 million (approx. Rwf127 billion), which will be disbursed over six years, shows information from IFAD.

Such funding will be allocated to three components of the project.

They are "increasing productivity and resilience of dairy smallholder production systems" which accounts for 41.3 per cent of the total project costs ($41.44 million); "increasing dairy VC (value chain) efficiency, through scaled-up investments, improved market access, and consumption of dairy products" which represents 48.2 per cent (or $48.41 million), and "policy support, and project management, monitoring and evaluation, and knowledge management" which will get $10.52 million (10.5 per cent).

Financiers

The project funding sources include IFAD's contribution amounts to more than $20.547 million (20.5 per cent of the total project budget), and OPEC Fund for $20 million (19.9 per cent).

It will also leverage financing from a regional GCF (Green Climate Fund) operation covering Rwanda - "Pathways to Dairy Net Zero" - estimated at $8.5 million (8.5 per cent), Equity Bank Rwanda will participate in the project by financing approximately $10 million (10 per cent) in loans to smallholder farmers, and other entities along the dairy value chain.

Heifer International confirmed the contribution of a $6 million grant (6 per cent), Government of Rwanda's contribution is estimated at $17.64 million covers 17.5 per cent of total project costs, and it is expected beneficiaries will contribute $9.52 million (9.5 per cent).

A financing gap of $8.16 million (8.1 per cent) may be covered by IFAD resources, or by other co-financiers.

Rwanda's annual milk production registered a steady growth, reaching more than one million tonnes (one billion litres) in 2023, from 891,326 tonnes in 2020, and more than 372,600 tonnes in 2010, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI).

-New Times.

Ghanaian President Replaces Finance Minister, Others in Cabinet Reshuffle

Ghanaian President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo on Wednesday announced changes to his cabinet, replacing the finance minister and some other ministers in the latest reshuffle.

In a statement by the presidency, the president named Mohammed Amin Adams, a minister of State at the Finance Ministry, to replace Ken Ofori-Atta as the new finance minister.

"The president personally expressed his sincere appreciation directly to each of the ministers and deputy ministers, who have exited government, for their commitment, competence, dedication and hard work in office," the statement said.

Ghana has been grappling with a severe economic crisis in recent years, marked by high inflation and living costs.

Last May, the government secured a loan of 3 billion U.S. dollars from the International Monetary Fund to support its economic reforms, which have started yielding some positive results.

-New Times.

West Africa Trade Will Take a Hit As Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Leave Ecowas

The membership of the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has been whittled down from 15 to 12 following the unilateral withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso in February.

Founded in 1975, Ecowas is one of eight regional economic communities recognised by the African Union to foster regional integration on the continent. Its main objective is to create a single, large trading bloc through economic cooperation.

Since 1975, Ecowas and its sister organisation the West African Economic and Monetary Union (known by its French acronym, Uemoa) have implemented numerous policies aimed at improving how west African countries trade with each other and how they are connected to the world.

Yet, progress towards regional integration has been slow. Intra-regional trade remains well below the levels of other regions and the west African economies still rely a lot on informal activities. The limited results achieved in regional integration mean that there is a mismatch between regionalism as it should be on paper and as it is experienced on a daily basis. Despite the many agreements signed between west African countries to foster integration, west Africa is one of the world's most expensive regions in which to do business.

Political elites bear a great part of the blame for this. In a political system that relies on interpersonal relations, regional integration goes against the informal arrangements that politicians have established with wealthy traders. These networks have encouraged the development of informal trade between west African countries and prevented the implementation of trade facilitation initiatives. Much of the trade between Benin, Niger and Nigeria, for example, relies on informal networks that connect traders in border regions to state elites in the capital cities.

Why three landlocked countries, among the poorest in the world, would leave an organisation established to foster free movement of people, goods and capital across the region is a puzzling question, considering the potential consequences.

Read more: Ecowas: why withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signals fresh trouble for the Sahel

While the decision appears to have been made for political reasons, the economic consequences will be far-reaching. In the past, border closures between Sahelian and coastal countries have had devastating consequences on the regional economy. They have also affected the livelihoods of millions of farmers, herders and city dwellers who depend on regional trade perhaps more than anywhere in the world.

It was precisely to foster these complementary relationships between the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea that Ecowas was established in Abuja nearly 50 years ago.

The integration conundrum

The Sahel is a large semi-arid region that stretches from Senegal in the west to Chad in the east. Subject to constant climatic uncertainties, it includes some of the poorest and least developed countries in the world.

Sahelian countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger depend more on regional trade than coastal countries, such as Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana or Nigeria. This is because they are far less urbanised and industrialised than their neighbours. They tend to produce identical agricultural commodities, which they typically trade with other countries located on the Gulf of Guinea.

Livestock trade between the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea is also highly dependent on free movement between west African countries. Close to two thirds of the livestock movements recorded in west Africa cross an international border. This is usually from the Sahel to big southern markets such as Abidjan in Côte d'Ivoire.

A purely Sahelian bloc, like the recently created Alliance des États du Sahel (AES), would never be able to replace Ecowas. This is simply because of the regional nature of human and economic flows in west Africa. The new bloc was established in 2023 by the military juntas that took power in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, in reaction to the sanctions imposed by Ecowas.

Because Sahelian countries have hardly any industries, they import much of what they consume from the west African and global market, particularly from China. Much of the cement, petroleum products, cars, textiles, wheat, rice and plastics sold on the markets of Niamey, Ouagadougou and Bamako were produced elsewhere. They depend on the ports of the Gulf of Guinea to import them.

Read more: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger want to leave Ecowas. A political scientist explains the fallout

Coastal countries are far from being self-sufficient too. They import large quantities of onions from the Sahel, for example. They also benefit enormously from import-export trade with the landlocked countries of the Sahel.

Some of them have transformed into "entrepot economies". These are trading ports where goods from the world markets can be imported and stored before being re-exported with no customs duties imposed. Benin, for example, is specialised in importing goods that will eventually be re-exported illegally to neighbouring countries where they are banned or subject to heavy taxes, such as Nigeria and Niger.

The consequences

Withdrawing from Ecowas is likely to have major consequences on the regional economy as a whole. Because of their landlocked situation, however, Sahelian countries will be more affected than the rest of the region by the reintroduction of tariff barriers. Without free access to the ports of Cotonou, Lomé, Abidjan or Tema, Sahelian imports will be far more expensive.

Informal trade is already the dominant form of economic exchange in the region. This will probably experience an unprecedented boom, particularly along the borders between Niger and Nigeria.

In addition, leaving Ecowas and its free movement protocol could have catastrophic consequences for millions of Sahelians who live in - or wish to migrate to - coastal cities. Migration is mostly intra-regional in west Africa. Sahelians mostly tend to migrate to the Gulf of Guinea. Migrants from coastal countries go to Europe through the Sahara and, increasingly, to the US.

Sahelian traders have also developed extensive trade networks across west Africa. They take advantage of the liberalisation of trade that has characterised the region since the 1980s.

>From Abidjan to Lagos, trade networks that rely on well-established diasporas would be particularly affected by trade restrictions and immigration policies.

Political motivations

The decision to leave Ecowas has little to do with economic considerations. It is primarily motivated by the fact that the bloc's approach to region-building is not confined to economic integration. Ecowas is also well-known for its robust involvement in peacekeeping and security operations to end conflict in the region.

The bloc's protocol on democracy and good governance, adopted in 2001, prescribes a zero tolerance policy "for power obtained or maintained by unconstitutional means". Furthermore, its 1999 protocol authorises external interventions without state consent under certain conditions, including "the overthrow or attempted overthrow of a democratically elected government".

This, rather than trade liberalisation, is the main reason why the putschists in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have decided to leave Ecowas.

An earlier version of this article was first published on the University of Florida blog.

Olivier Walther, Assistant Professor in Geography, University of Florida

Mozambique Wins Arbitration Case Against Indian Company

Maputo — Mozambique has won an arbitration case and avoided paying over 100 million US dollars in a case against the Indian company Patel Engineering Ltd (PEL).

According to a statement, after almost four years of litigation, the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) handed down its award on 7 February in favor of Mozambique, rejecting all the claims brought by Indian company Patel Engineering Ltd (PEL) against the Mozambican state.

"The facts of this case date back to 2011, when PEL and the Mozambican government signed a Memorandum of Understanding regarding a potential railway-port project to link the Moatize region, in the central province of Tete, to a new deep-water port in Macuse, in the central Zambezia province. Following this, PEL took part in a public tender in 2013, but did not win it. So far, the project has not materialized', reads the document.

However, the document says, the Court concluded that it had no jurisdiction because PEL's actions in Mozambique were limited to pre-investment activity.

"PEL has not made any investment in Mozambique under the Bilateral Investment Treaty between Mozambique and India', it says.

The Attorney General's Office (PGR), which, under the terms of the law, is responsible for providing legal representation and assistance to the state when it is a party to proceedings abroad, declared that it "welcomes this achievement.'

Nigeria: Hardship - We Can't Pacify the People Anymore - Northern Traditional Rulers Tell FG

Monarchs from the North under the umbrella of Northern Traditional Council led by the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa'ad Abubakar have told the Federal Government that unless the necessary action is taken, insecurity, poverty and unemployment in Nigeria and North in particular, have made Nigeria sit on a keg of gunpowder, ready to explode.

The Sultan spoke on Wednesday at the Arewa House, Kaduna during the 6th executive Northern Traditional Council committee meeting, where he told the Federal Government that the traditional rulers, religious leaders as well as State governors have been pacifying the masses and the jobless youth from revolting against political leaders at the helm of affairs.

"It is getting to a level that traditional leaders could no longer pacify the people from revolting against government and political leaders that supposed to find solutions to their lingering socio-economic plight," he said.

"And let's not take it for granted; people are quiet, they are quiet for a reason, because people have been talking to them.; we have been talking to them, we have been trying to tell them things will be be okay and they keep on believing. I pray to Almighty Allah that they will not one day wake up and say we no longer believe in you. Because that would be the biggest problem, because we can't quieten these people as traditional, spiritual leaders and diplomats forever."

"We have reached that level, people are very agitated, people are hungry, they are angry, but they still believe there are people who can talk to them, they believe in some of their Governors, some other traditional rulers and some of their religious leaders, fortunately some of us double as traditional and religious leaders."

"So, we have this onerous task of reaching out to everybody, calm them down and assure them things would be okay, and they should continue to pray and pray and still do something good, because prayer without work will not bring anything."

"To make matters worse, we are faced with rising level of poverty of most of our people; lack normal sources of livelihood by the common man to have even a good meal a day."

"But, I believe talking about insecurity and the rising level of poverty are two issues that we cannot fold our arms and think everything is okay. I have said it so many times and at so many fora that, things are not okay in Nigeria and of course, things are not okay in the North."

"What are the real issues bringing about poverty and rising cases of insecurity? I don't think it is the issue of new government. To me, this government is a continuation of the former government; it is the same party. So, what really is the problem? I think that is one of the reasons we are here to talk to ourselves."

"We owe it a duty to the teeming millions of people that believe in the traditional institution, to bring solution to the various problems facing them. We will not fail in doing that. We will do our best."

"We must find jobs for our teeming youth that are sitting idle and I have said it so many times, we are sitting on a keg of gunpowder, having teeming youths, millions of them, without jobs, without food, we are looking for trouble."

"But, we thank Allah we believe in ourselves, we believe in Almighty Allah to bring succour to all our problems and we will keep on praying and urging our political leaders, who we believe will do something better."

"We are only advisers to the political leaders, that is all we can do, but if we are empowered and as strong as the Governors by the constitution, by the amount of funds they get from the Federal and states revenues, we can also do a lot."

"However, we are ready to work with the Governors, because we believe in them, we believe in what they are doing and must work with them. And if the Governors too want to have peace and stability in their states, they must work with the traditional leaders."

"We are gathered here again for the sole purpose of looking at the issue troubling our dear Northern States. We also invited the security chiefs, the IGP, Chief of Defence Staff, DG SSS to be with us and interact with us because of our concern for the rising insecurity in the North in particular."

"We have had such meetings before with the Northern Governors, so many times at Kashim Ibrahim House. We have entered into a new cycle of leadership, some new Governors have come on board, while some are having their second term and still we are faced with these insecurity issues."

"I have said so many times, that we never lack solution to our problems, what we lack is implementation, because we meet today, we bring out so many beautiful ideas on how to solve our problems, we go back to our various places and go to bed, leaving such solutions here in this conference hall. So, how do we implement them?"

"This is why we invited the leadership of Coalition of Northern Groups (CNG) to come and interact with us on the outcome of similar meeting they organized in Abuja. We invited the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) to be part of us and talk to us too, because as elders, some of whom have been in politics, who have done a lot for the North and the country. At the end of the meeting, we believe we will come up with various suggestions on how to resolve our numerous problems in the North."

"Education is important, so whatever issue you want to bring to us here, you must talk about education, you must talk about health issue and of the two monsters that have been harassing all of us here, that is insecurity and poverty."

"So, I think it's good we talk about these things and let us be very honest with ourselves, let us be very frank about what we are going to tell ourselves here; it is no time to hide things."

"I believe at the end of this meeting, we should have very good suggestions to our political leaders, to our security chiefs, that when such is implemented, we will have a better North and at the same time have a better Nigeria," the Sultan said.

-Vanguard.

Nigeria: FG Makes U-Turn, Says UK Lawyers Can't Practise in Nigeria

The Federal Government has made a U-turn on its earlier statement on the legal aspect of the Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership signed with the United Kingdom on Tuesday.

This development comes after criticism from Nigerians over the nature of the Memorandum of Understanding signed with the UK.

The Nigerian Minister for Trade and Investment, Doris Uzoka-Anite, in a statement on her X handle, retracted her earlier statement, emphasising that there was no such legal agreement between Nigeria and the UK.

Uzoka-Anite said, "Earlier today, Nigeria signed a far-reaching MoU with the United Kingdom for Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership.

"Regrettably, our earlier report erroneously suggest that Nigeria has signed a Memorandum of Understanding that allows lawyers licensed in the United Kingdom to practise in Nigeria.

"We wish to state emphatically that there is no such provision or agreement in the MpU."

The minister reiterated that Nigeria does not have a Mutual Recognition Agreement with the UK and made no commitment under the MOU or elsewhere, to allow UK-licensed lawyers practise in Nigeria.

"As it currently stands, foreign licensed lawyers (including those licensed in the UK) cannot practise in Nigeria, as categorically stated in the MoU.

"We recognise that cross jurisdictional practice between Nigeria and the United Kingdom is still an ongoing conversation amongst relevant stakeholders within the legal practitioners community in Nigeria, and this was reflected in the MoU," she added.

On Tuesday, a statement by the UK's Department of Business and Trade, and a tweet from Nigeria's Minister of Trade and Investment disclosed that Nigeria was signing a deal to remove barriers preventing UK lawyers from practising international law in Nigeria.

The Nigerian Bar Association had also condemned the purported agreement, stating that the statement credited to the minister was "ridiculous, unpatriotic, and uninformed."

-Vanguard.

Nigeria: IMF Confirms Return of Petrol Subsidy Under Tinubu

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the Nigerian government has, through the backdoor, resumed the payment of subsidies on the premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.

Recall that on May 29, 2023, during his swearing-in speech, President Bola Tinubu announced an end to petrol subsidy, triggering a hike in the prices of goods and services in the country.

A few weeks later, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) collapsed the different exchange rate regimes into one, with the value of the naira to the dollar weakening.

As of yesterday, it was N1,499/$1 at the official window and N1,515/$1 at the parallel market.

Over the weekend, the IMF issued a statement on the conclusion of its Executive Board's Post Financing Assessment with Nigeria, and it expressed concerns that the government had capped the prices of fuel at retail stations.

The global lender advised the administration of President Tinubu to completely stop the payment of subsidies on petrol to free funds to run the government.

However, prominent Nigerians and regional groups had at different times scolded the IMF for what they described as "anti-masses policies", and called on Nigerian government to explore home grown options that would fix the economy and better the life of the people.

In the past few days, there have been reports of queues returning to petrol stations in major cities in the country, but the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited allayed the fears of consumers, assuring that it has enough to go around.

How petrol prices feared since subsidy removal

After the removal of the petrol subsidy in May 2023, the pump price changed from N185 per litre to N400 per litre, and then to N568 per litre at NNPC fueling stations, while others currently sell above N600.

The government had said the prices would fluctuate after subsidy removal from time to time but the pump price has maintained a steady rise despite the fact that the price of crude oil in the global market keeps going up and down.

The IMF, in its latest statement at the weekend, said the Tinubu administration has "capped retail fuel and electricity prices" ostensibly to "ease the impact of rapidly rising inflation on living conditions, thus partially reversing the fuel subsidy removal."

Daily Trust investigation in September revealed that despite the numerous assurances by President Tinubu that the subsidy was gone, the federal government paid N169.4 billion as subsidy in August to keep the pump price at N620 per litre.

A document from the Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), sighted by one of our reporters, showed that in August 2023, the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas (NLNG) paid $275m as dividends to Nigeria via NNPC Limited. NNPC Limited used $220 million (N169.4 billion at N770/$) out of the $275 million to pay for the PMS subsidy. Then NNPC held back $55 million, illegally.

Petrol may sell for over N1000/l due to devaluation

The recent devaluation of the naira at the official forex window which has seen it exchange for N1, 499/$ will likely push pump price of petrol to cross the N1, 000 per litre mark.

A breakdown of the landing cost of petrol before the latest devaluation showed that product cost was N627.82 per litre, finance cost was N11.61, and operations/administrative cost N12.32, bringing the total landing cost to N651.75 per litre with local currency pegged at N900/dollar ceiling.

The amount has seen independent marketers adjust pump price three times between August and December 2023, forcing them to sell between N660 per litre to N670 per litre.

NNPC retail outlets have however continued to sale at N617 per litre.

With the old situation, it is fully suggestive that petrol ought to sell at over N720, and someone, most probably, is paying the price differential.

Therefore, the new exchange rate indicates that prices should to be above N1,000 per litre

Oil Marketers react

Leaders of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria of Nigeria, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, and Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria said there was a need for the federal government to intervene to address the impending crisis.

Speaking recently, the National Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chief Chinedu Ukadike, explained that the price of petrol was now driven by the fluctuations in forex, hence Nigerians should expect a hike soon.

Asked whether oil marketers were considering an increase in petrol price, he replied, "Once there is a slack in the naira against the dollar, there is going to be an effect. The demand and supply of forex is a key factor. We should also understand that it is not only petroleum products that use forex.

"It is simple mathematics, once the dollar is going up, have it in mind that the prices of petroleum products would definitely increase because the products are dollar-driven."

Also speaking to Daily Trust, the Secretary General of NUPENG, Afolabi Olawale Olufemi said: "Our people are losing confidence in the naira and it is unfortunate. People should stop exploiting the situation because it is not good for anybody.

"We are fortunate that there are positive signs that Dangote refinery is going to start very soon. We should be hopeful and that would help moderate the fluctuations that are expected."

Speaking on the development, Abiola Rasaq, former Economist and Head, Investor Relation at UBA plc said: "The sharp rise in petroleum price is a reflection of both the full deregulation of the downstream oil & gas sector as well as Naira weakness. Notably, crude oil is a dollarised commodity, hence the notable devaluation of the local currency has direct impact on the Naira-cost of petroleum prices, especially as the subsidy removal meant the retail price has to reflect the true market price of the product. So, it's a double whammy effect."

NNPC says no increase in petrol pump price

When Daily Trust reached out to the Chief Corporate Communications Officer, NNPC Ltd, Olufemi Soneye on the likelihood of pump price shifting beyond the current N617 per litre, he said: "We are pleased to confirm that there are no supply issues, and our products remain readily available. The recent tightness experienced in certain areas was due to a brief distribution issue in Lagos, which has since been resolved."

He said there is no imminent increase in the cost of petrol.

No need for panic buying-Tanker drivers

The Petroleum Tanker Drivers (PTD) union has advised Nigerians against panic buying, assuring that there is no shortfall in the distribution of petroleum products.

It gave the advice in a statement yesterday by its National Chairman and Secretary, Lucky Osesua and Humble Power Obinna, respectively.

It asked its members to ignore any threat from the Nigeria Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) not to lift petroleum products from certain depots in the country.

PTD said the alleged plot to remove Osesua, Obinna and Deputy Chairman, Yusuf Garga, had failed.

"There is no shortfall in the distribution of petroleum products across the six geo political zones of the country and PTD, under the legitimate leadership of Comrade Lucky Osesua and his deputy, Comrade Dayyabu Garga, has redoubled its commitment to ensure and guarantee lifting and distribution of petroleum products without encumbrance in observance of its statutory responsibility.

"We equally urge Nigerians and motorists to avoid storing of petrol at home because of the dangers associated with it," the statement read in part.

-Daily Trust.

Ghana: ORC to Strike 8,000 Defaulting Firms From Register By May 2024

The Office of the Registrar of Companies (ORC) has announced that it will strike out over 8,000 defaulting companies from the companies register by the end of May 2024.

This decision comes after a two-year sensitisation campaign and multiple notifications to companies that have failed to file annual returns as required by the Companies Act 2019 (Act 992).

According to a statement by the ORC, a total of 8,531 limited liability companies are currently in default as of December 2023.

The Registrar said this move has become necessary to purge the Register of dormant companies and companies in default.

"We have made many efforts to encourage stakeholders to file their returns but some companies have still not complied. This action must be taken to uphold the integrity of the companies register," the statement added.

The statement highlighted that defaulting companies can still avoid being struck off by filing their annual returns and financial statements by the end of May 2024.

It also noted that beginning 1st May 2024, the Registrar would start implementing a one-time GHC 1,000 administrative penalty fee against companies in default.

"I urge all company officials to take this matter seriously. A company that is struck off cannot legally conduct business for 12 years except by a court order to reinstate it," the statement cautioned.

The Registrar advised the public to avoid making any mobile money transfers to unauthorised persons claiming to represent the Registrar's office.

-GhanaToday.

Mozambique: - Mozambican Economy Grew By Five Per Cent in 2023

Maputo — The Mozambican economy grew by five per cent in 2023, compared to 4.4 per cent in 2022, driven by the extractive industry, tourism, agriculture, transport and communications.

The figure comes from the balance of the Economic and Social Plan and the State Budget (PESOE), a document approved in Maputo on Tuesday by the Council of Ministers (Cabinet).

The spokesperson for the meeting, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Ludovina Bernardo, said at the usual press briefing, "The performance represents the continuation of a positive trend observed over the last four years, with good economic prospects in the medium and long term'.

The growth is also, she added, the result of the implementation of the economic reform measures underway, adopted by the government, "which have boosted economic activity in the private sector and attracted new investment.'

She said that average annual inflation has fallen to 7.1 per cent, against an initial forecast of 11.5 per cent.

Net international reserves were above the three months forecast in the PESOE, and reached the 4.3 months mark for covering imports of goods and non-factor services.

According to Bernardo, this translated into "greater credibility and greater capacity to absorb shocks to the balance of payments.'

In the period under review, state revenue contributed around 70 per cent of internal resources, compared to 64.3 per cent in 2022, which, according to Bernardo, represents a trend towards long-term budget sustainability.

"It is the result of the government's efforts to improve revenue collection', she claimed.

Also in 2023, state revenue grew by 14.2 per cent, corresponding to 91.4 per cent of the forecast, while public spending grew by 7.5 per cent, which represents 97.4 per cent of the forecast.

At the same meeting, the Council of Ministers approved the regulation on the registration of legal entities.

The regulation provides for the introduction of the register of beneficial owners, as a crucial step towards aligning the legal provisions with the Law on Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism, as well as with the Commercial Code.

"The inclusion of the beneficial owner register is essential for strengthening the transparency and integrity of the Mozambican financial system and as one of the actions to remove the country from the Grey List', said Bernardo.

South Africa: Internet Connectivity Improves

Minister of Communications and Digital Technologies, Mondli Gungubele, says that internet connectivity and penetration has improved greatly.

According to the Minister, internet connectivity and penetration has improved from a mere 21.1% in 2011 to a staggering 79% in 2022, elevating citizens in a rapidly changing world that is driven by digital technologies.

The improvement is due to work being done through the SA Connect broadband connectivity project, which is dedicated to bridging the digital divide by providing Wi-Fi access to communities and ensuring universal access to the internet.

Phase 2 of the SA Connect project was launched by government last year with the aim to provide core and access network infrastructure to enable broadband connectivity to community Wi-Fi hotspots that will connect households.

Addressing a joint debate on the State of the Nation Address (SONA) on Tuesday, the Minister said government will continue to connect rural and township areas with a target of 5.5 million households enabled by WIFI hotspots in the next three to four years.

In addition, government will connect 1.5 million households enabled by WIFI hotspots by December 2024 and 747 000 households enabled by 4 250 WIFI hotspots by the end of this financial year.

"We can report that to date, a coverage of 361 000 households which has been enabled by 2 502 WIFI hotspots has been achieved. The work has been done and will continue being done. It will involve 76 internet service providers, which are small medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs). This will result in 4 500 direct jobs and many more indirect jobs and opportunities downstream," Gungubele said.

Spectrum

With government having freed spectrum of above 700MHz for use by mobile operators, that spectrum will connect public institutions and deploy 4G and 5G technology throughout the country.

The availability of spectrum paves the way for affordable, high-speed internet access for all.

"Working with the private sector thus far, all eight metros have been connected to fibre, and we are expanding to more towns. We have as part of our implementation of the recommendations of the Presidential Commission on Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), embarked on several digital infrastructure projects to ensure transformation through access in a changing world," the Minister said.

He said Cabinet approved the Next Generation Spectrum Policy for economic development on 25 November 2023.

The policy intends to support the spectrum allocation and licensing for fixed mobile; broadcasting; aeronautical and marine; research and development; community access, and other relevant industries.

The policy also seeks to promote equity and fair allocation to contribute towards the transformation of the sector and accessibility of digital connectivity even in outlying parts of the country.

The purpose of the policy is to address gaps and limitations that were identified in the 2016 National Information and Communications Technology White Paper and prepares for the amendment of relevant sections of the Electronic Communications Act, 2005 (Act 36 of 2005), which include:

unclear roles and responsibilities between Minister and the authority (ICASA) which contributed to inefficiencies

gaps in the spectrum management regime

an exclusive spectrum regime that benefit a few and bigger players; and

inefficiencies towards extending broadband access to rural, remote, and underserved areas.

"Working with our mobile operators, we will connect over 21 878 public basic education institutions, health centres and clinics, public libraries, and offices/ residences of traditional leaders to the internet, over the next three years.

"4G connection is expanding to township and rural areas under the democracy ka[meaning of] Tata Rolihlahla Mandela. Information and communications technology (ICT) is a great equaliser. Everyone in South Africa must and will access modern digital technologies.

"A digitally disconnected South Africa automatically removes itself from participating in the global community of the future. The social and economic impact of which will be catastrophic," the Minister said.

-SAnews.gov.za.

UK economy fell into recession at the end of 2023

The UK fell into recession during the final three months of last year, official figures show, after the economy shrank by more than expected.

Gross domestic product (GDP) - a key measure of economic activity - dropped by 0.3% between October and December.

That follows a fall between July and September. The UK is considered to be in recession if GDP falls for two successive three-month periods.

The figure will be a blow Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

Growing the economy was one of five pledges he made in January 2023. Meanwhile, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is less than three weeks away from unveiling his latest Budget.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the data showed that Mr Sunak's pledge to grow the economy was "in tatters".

The government can use growing GDP as evidence that it is doing a good job of managing the economy. Likewise, if GDP falls, opposition politicians say the government is running it badly.

If GDP is going up steadily, people pay more in tax because they're earning and spending more. This means more money for the government that it can choose to spend on public services, such as schools, police and hospitals.

Governments also like to keep an eye on how much they are borrowing in relation to the size of the economy.

Treasury sources have confirmed to BBC News that the chancellor is looking at a larger pencilled-in squeeze on public spending as a way to deliver tax cuts in the Budget on 6 March.

Forecasts for the public finances have materially deteriorated in recent weeks as interest costs on UK government borrowing has increased. Final decisions have not been made.

Commenting on GDP, Mr Hunt said: "While interest rates are high - so the Bank of England can bring inflation down - low growth is not a surprise."

He added that there were "signs the British economy is turning a corner".

But Mr Reeves said: "This is Rishi Sunak's recession and the news will be deeply worrying for families and business across Britain."

Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that during the final three months of last year, there was a slowdown in all the main sectors it measures to determine the health of the economy, including construction and manufacturing.

The figure for the final three months of last year was worse than a 0.1% fall widely forecast by financial markets and economists.

GDP for the third quarter, between July and September fell by 0.1%.

Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest economic figures "might nudge the Bank of England a little closer to cutting interest rates".

"But we doubt the Bank will be too worried about what is likely to be a mild and short recession," she added.

Recent figures showed that inflation - which measures the pace of price rises - remained at 4% in January.

The Bank of England had been lifting interest rates to put the brakes on inflation but has kept them at 5.25% since August last year.

For the year as a whole, the economy grew by 0.1%.

"While it has now shrunk for two consecutive quarters, across 2023 as a whole the economy has been broadly flat," said Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS.

Nevertheless, excluding the Covid years, annual growth last year was the weakest since 2009 when the UK and major economies were reeling from the global financial crisis.-bbc

Faisal Islam: Should we care that the UK is in recession?

Britain is now officially in recession.

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, fell by 0.3% in the last three months of 2023, which is a sharper fall than economists were expecting.

This gave us two consecutive falls in GDP after a decrease of 0.1% in the three months before, between July and September 2023.

A fall in the economy, in two consecutive three month periods, has been the most widely used rule of thumb for entering a recession, across the world for decades.

More on that in a moment.

The best way to define the overall experience of the past six months, indeed the past two years, is "zero growth" or "stagnation".

This is a matter of note, of concern, and looks set to improve only marginally over the course of this year. It was the prime minister himself who decided to set a vague target around growing the economy by the end of last year.

Around the world, there are different definitions of recession.

In the US, a committee of eight respected private economists sits and decides if there has been "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months". This determination often occurs over a year after the event, and is based on monthly rather than quarterly data, and not just the size of the economy. It is more thorough, more grounded in economic theory, but less timely.

Under the US definition in 2022, two consecutive quarters of contraction was not deemed to be a recession, because of the strength of the jobs market. Under this US approach, the UK would not necessarily be in recession.

'Barmy'

But back to why a recession is now usually defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline.

A delve into the BBC News archives can help here.

My predecessor as economics editor, Peter Jay, told the Today programme in late 2008 - just ahead of the Great Recession - that the definition was "barmy", and that it was made up on the "back of an envelope" in 1967 by the respected economist Art Okun, to help his boss US President Lyndon B Johnson out of a political hole.

Mr Johnson wanted to avoid recessionary headlines following one quarter's contraction, and so Okun suggested defining it as two quarters instead. Other sources suggest Okun floated this idea in a speech in the early 1960s. Baron Jay was "in the room" when this rather consequential piece of strategising occurred 65 years ago.

This definition has stuck around the world, except in North America.

For the most part, two consecutive quarters of GDP decline have coincided with what all economists agree have been recessions. There are exceptions though, as in the US in 2022.

Indeed, it is of some relevance that the government itself has used the "two quarters" definition.

The 'R-Word'

In his Budget speech last year, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt told MPs: "Today, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts that, because of changing international factors and the measures I take, the UK will not now enter a technical recession this year."

This refrain was consistently used by government ministers last year.

At BBC News, as with almost all other media, we have consistently used this definition too, over decades, both in our coverage of how the UK has avoided recession, and how other countries have hit that threshold.

It is, however, important to distinguish between the period of broadly zero growth we have just been experiencing and the start of substantial tangible recessions such as during the pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2008.

Few forecasters believe that it will last into this year. Indeed if, as expected, the economy is currently growing between January and March, it may be over even as it is officially defined.

But it clearly is of some interest, especially given the prime minister's promise to "grow the economy".

In fact, in the absence of any statistical revisions, the "R-word" could hang over the economy until mid-May.

So now we know there have been two consecutive negative quarters, we will, as consistency dictates, be using the "R-word", but we will also add appropriate context.

For many economists even what might be called a "micro" or "nano-recession", would be a somewhat benign outcome given the aftermath of the worst health crisis in a century, the worst energy shock in half a century, and 15 years of near-zero interest rates scrapped in 15 months.

But it will, rightly, illuminate a more substantive issue: this economy is not growing.

-bbc

Japan unexpectedly slips into a recession

Japan has unexpectedly fallen into a recession after its economy shrank for two quarters in a row.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.4% in the last three months of 2023, compared to a year earlier.

It came after the economy shrank by 3.3% in the previous quarter.

The figures from Japan's Cabinet Office also indicate that the country has lost its position as the world's third-largest economy to Germany.

Economists had expected the new data to show that Japan's GDP grew by more than 1% in the fourth quarter of last year.

The latest figures were the first reading of Japan's economic growth for the period and could still be revised.

Two quarters in a row of economic contraction are typically considered the definition of a technical recession.

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that Germany was likely to overtake Japan as the world's third-largest economy when measured in US dollars.

The IMF will only declare a change in its rankings once both countries have published the final versions of their economic growth figures. It began publishing data comparing economies in 1980.

Economist Neil Newman told the BBC that the latest figures show that Japan's economy was worth about $4.2tn (£3.3tn) in 2023, while Germany's was $4.4tn.

This was due to the weakness of the Japanese currency against the dollar and that if the yen recovers, the country could regain the number three spot, Mr Newman added.

At a press conference in Tokyo this month, the IMF's deputy head, Gita Gopinath, also said an important reason for Japan potentially slipping in the rankings was the yen falling by about 9% against the US dollar last year.

However, the weakness of the yen has helped to boost the share prices of some of Japan's biggest companies as it makes the country's exports, such as cars, cheaper in overseas markets.

This week, Tokyo's main stock index, the Nikkei 225, crossed the 38,000 mark for the first time since 1990, when a collapse in property prices triggered an economic crisis. The Nikkei 225's record high of 38,915.87 was set on 29 December 1989.

The latest GDP data may also mean that the country's central bank may further delay a much-anticipated decision to raise the cost of borrowing.

The Bank of Japan introduced a negative interest rate in 2016 as it tried to boost spending and investment.

Negative rates make the yen less attractive to global investors, which has pushed down the currency's value.-bbc

What is a recession and how could it affect me?

The UK economy fell into recession during the final three months of last year, according to official figures.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said growing the economy was one of his five key priorities.

How do you measure the health of the economy?

The ONS publishes figures for the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is the value of all the goods and services the UK produces.

In normal times, a country's economy grows, GDP rises and average incomes tend to rise as a result.

But sometimes the economy shrinks, GDP falls, and that's a sign that the economy is doing badly, and could hit people's pockets.

What is GDP and how does it affect me?

What is a recession?

The UK is considered to be in recession if GDP falls for two successive three-month periods - or quarters.

The last time the UK's economy went into recession was in 2020, at the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

It only lasted for six months, although the 20.4% fall in the UK economy between April and June 2020 was the largest on record.

The previous recession started in 2008 as a result of the global financial crisis, and went on for five quarters.

How has the UK economy been doing?

The UK avoided recession at the end of 2022 after the economy performed better than expected.

But the economy shrank 0.3% between October and December. That follows a 0.1% fall between July and September.

UK GDP graphic

Why does recession matter?

For many people, economic growth is good.

It can mean that more jobs are available, and that companies can pay more to employees and shareholders.

The higher wages and larger profits seen in a growing economy also generate additional money for the government through taxes.

It can choose to spend more on benefits, public services and government workers' wages, or cut tax rates.

When the economy shrinks, these things can go into reverse.

How the government raises and spends £1 trillion a year

How would a recession affect me?

Some people might lose their jobs, and unemployment could rise. Graduates and school leavers could find it difficult to get their first job.

Others may find it more harder to be promoted, or to get big enough pay rises to keep pace with price increases.

However, the pain of a recession is typically not felt equally across society, and inequality can increase.

Benefit recipients and those on fixed incomes are particularly likely to struggle.

The UK has been one of the weaker members of the G7 group of the world's largest economies.

The US economy grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was much better than expected.

That put the US at 2.5% over 2023 as a whole, the best performance of all other advanced economies. It is also expected to outperform the rest of the G7 in 2024.

In October 2023, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the UK would grow by just 0.6% in 2024.

Chart showing US growth v other countries

The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the UK economy to grow by 0.7% in 2024, but that is less than half of its earlier prediction of 1.8% growth.

How will the UK economy compare to others in 2024?

How can you get out of a recession?

When a country is in a recession, the Bank of England - which is independent of government - typically cuts interest rates.

This makes it cheaper for businesses and households to borrow money which can boost spending and growth.

However, prices have been rising very quickly in the UK, and the Bank put interest rates up to tackle that inflation.

After 14 rate increases, the Bank has held interest rates at 5.25% four times in a row, but cuts are expected later in the year.

When the economy is struggling to grow at the same time as there is high inflation, there can be a situation called "stagflation", which is very difficult to solve.-bbc

Elon Musk says SpaceX's legal home moved from Delaware to Texas

Elon Musk says he has moved the legal home of his rocket company SpaceX from the US state of Delaware to Texas.

Two weeks ago, Mr Musk said electric carmaker Tesla's shareholders will vote on making the same move. His brain-chip implant firm, Neuralink, has also relocated its legal home to Nevada.

Last month, a judge in Delaware annulled his $55.8bn (£44bn) pay package from Tesla.

Mr Musk has also recommended that other firms move away from Delaware.

In a post on on his social media platform X, formerly Twitter, the multi-billionaire said: "SpaceX has moved its state of incorporation from Delaware to Texas!"

"If your company is still incorporated in Delaware, I recommend moving to another state as soon as possible," he added.

Many big US corporations, including Amazon, are registered in Delaware, which is known for having light taxation.

On 30 January, Judge Kathaleen McCormick found that Tesla directors, who negotiated Mr Musk's pay package in 2018, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to his "superstar appeal" and did not fully inform shareholders.

She said the deal was "unfathomable" and ruled it should be cancelled.

The pay deal was the biggest to date in US corporate history, helping to make Mr Musk the richest person in the world.

Mr Musk currently has an estimated net worth of around $200bn.

Who is Elon Musk?

Tesla's pay package tied Mr Musk's compensation to performance targets, such as the firm's share price and profitability, but he does not receive a salary.

The lawsuit was filed by a shareholder, Richard Tornetta, who argued that it was an overpayment.

Despite owning just nine Tesla shares, Mr Tornetta launched legal action calling for the award to be rescinded.

Following the ruling, Mr Musk launched a poll on X, asking if Tesla should change its state of incorporation to Texas.

The poll had more than 1.1 million votes with over 87% voting in favour of the change.

"The public vote is unequivocally in favor of Texas!," Mr Musk posted on X.

The electric carmaker moved its corporate headquarters from Palo Alto in California to Austin, Texas in 2021.-bbc

 Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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INVESTORS DIARY 2024

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Art

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2024 auction tobacco marketing season opens

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CBZH

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FMHL

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