Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 04 January 2024

[Bulls n Bears]

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

 

 	

 

 

 	

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 04 January 2024

 

 	

 

 

 	


ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 

The market extended the bullish trend in Thursday's session to see the
primary All Share Index ticking up 7.70% to 240,181.46pts while, the
Blue-Chip Index firmed up 9.97% to 106,064.36pts. The Agriculture Index rose
2.33% to 652.43pts while, the Mid Cap Index gained 1.65% to 959,257.12pts.
Star Africa headlined the top performers of the day on a 23.63% jump to
$9.9089, followed by beverage giant Delta that added 14.96% to $4,468.4007,
having reached an intra-high of $4,470.1000. Banking group CBZ Holdings
surged 13.82% to close at $3,700.0000 while, fintech group Ecocash Holdings
advanced 11.13% to $224.6617. Meikles capped the winners of the day on a
10.88% uplift to end the day pegged at $1,637.9797. On the contrary, Nampak
led the laggards of the day on a 1.69% slid to $290.0000 while, Mash
Holdings eased 0.03% to close at $160.0500. The market closed with a
positive breadth of fourteen after sixteen counters recorded gains against
two that faltered.

 

Activity aggregates were depressed in the session as volume traded succumbed
67.03% to 678,707 shares while, value traded declined 75.24% to $354.83m.
Ecocash was the top volume driver after contributing 28.61% of the total
volume traded. Other notable volume drivers of the day were Star Africa
(22.44%), GBH (11.13%) and OkZim (9.27%). The top value drivers of the day
were Delta (60.95%), Ecocash (11.83%), Econet (6.09%) and Hippo (4.85%). A
total of 72,498 units exchanged hands in the ETF section. Cass Saddle ETF
inched up 4.54% to settle at $6.2163 as Datvest ETF charged 10.00% to end
the day pegged at $11.0000. OMTT ETF gained 5.87% to close at $42.9836.
Tigere REIT edged up 3.10% to end the session pegged at $350.0000 as 89,907
units exchanged hands.-efe

 

 

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

 

 

South Africa

 

South African rand firms after weak start to 2024

JOHANNESBURG: South Africa's rand firmed early on Thursday, slightly
rebounding from a weak start to the year, while the US dollar was little
changed.

 

At 0700 GMT, the rand traded at 18.6725 against the dollar, around 0.2%
stronger than its previous close.

 

The dollar was last down 0.01% at 102.39 against a basket of currencies.

 

On Tuesday, the first trading day of 2024, the rand ended about 1.5% weaker
against the dollar, as elevated US Treasury yields and a cautious turn in
risk sentiment boosted the dollar.

 

"Turning more optimistic on the rand remains difficult," ETM Analytics said
in a note, adding that its lack of resilience can be put down to domestic
factors such as a resumption of power cuts.

 

South African rand kicks off 2024 on a weaker note

 

The December S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due
to be published at 0715 GMT.

 

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger in early deals,
with the yield down 8 basis points to 9.835%.

 

 

 

AFRICA-FX-Nigerian, Kenyan and Ugandan currencies seen falling

(Reuters) - Nigeria's naira and the Kenyan and Ugandan shillings are
expected to weaken in the next week to Thursday, while Ghana's cedi and
Zambia's kwacha could be steady, traders said.

 

KENYA

Kenya's shilling is seen falling on increased demand for dollars from
sectors including manufacturing.

 

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 157.00/158.00 per U.S. dollar,
compared with last Thursday's close of 156.50/157.50.

 

   

"It (dollar demand) is just across industry; manufacturing and so on. It
(the shilling) continues to weaken," one trader said.

 

Traders said the central bank had agreed with banks late last month to allow
bid-ask spreads of up to 1 shilling, up from a 20-cent spread previously.

 

UGANDA

Uganda's shilling is expected to weaken, undermined by dollar demand from
the energy sector and general goods importers.

 

Commercial banks quoted the shilling at 3,800/3,810 to the dollar, compared
with last Thursday's closing rate of 3,775/3,785.

 

   

"Fuel importers are exerting significant (dollar) demand, I would anticipate
that will be a key dynamic in the coming days," one trader said.

 

He said the shilling was likely to trade in the 3,800-3,840 range in the
next week.

 

NIGERIA

Nigeria's naira is likely to drop on the official market to trade close to
levels on the unofficial market owing to dollar shortages and as businesses
resume activity after the Christmas break.

 

   

The naira was quoted at 899 to the dollar on the official market on
Thursday, versus the parallel market rate of 1,230 naira .

 

"Unless there is renewed confidence or (forex) buyers start resisting, I
don't see anything stopping the naira from trading lower," one trader said.

 

GHANA

Ghana's cedi is expected to be broadly stable as trading activity is yet to
pick up on the interbank market.

 

LSEG data showed the cedi at 11.9000 to the dollar on Thursday, the same as
at last Thursday's close.

 

"The cedi has been largely stable against the dollar to start the year, with
the market quiet as many participants have not yet returned from their
holiday breaks," said Sedem Dornoo, a senior trader at Absa Bank Ghana.

 

"We expect this narrative to persist."

 

ZAMBIA

Zambia's kwacha will probably be steady, propped by up central bank
interventions after a sustained slide.

 

On Thursday the kwacha was trading at 25.75 per dollar, weaker than 25.20
per dollar on Dec. 21.

 

Zambia's central bank sold $74 million in Wednesday's trading session to
buttress the local currency, Access Bank said.

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

Global Markets 

 

Dollar slightly down as investors look to US nonfarm payrolls

The dollar slipped on Thursday after hitting two-week highs the day before
as the positive impact of better-than-expected U.S. labor market data faded
and investors braced for the all-important nonfarm payrolls report on
Friday.

 

The U.S. currency earlier advanced following data showing U.S. private
employers hired more workers than expected in December. Private payrolls
increased by 164,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report
showed, the largest monthly increase since August. Economists polled by
Reuters had forecast private payrolls rising by 115,000.

 

At the same time, initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by
18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 202,000 for the week ended Dec. 30, also
bolstering the dollar. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 216,000
claims for the latest week.

 

The dollar initially rose after the data, but gains have since eased.

 

"Yes, we saw a beat with the number of jobs created in the ADP report, but I
would still point to the JOLTS yesterday, which showed quit rates coming
down and hiring rates coming down," said Thierry Albert Wizman, global FX
and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York.

 

"So there is still . weakening being priced in the labor market. I suspect
that tomorrow with nonfarm payrolls, it will be manifested in lower wage
inflation," he added.

 

Following Thursday's data, U.S. interest rate futures reduced expectations
on the number of rate cuts for 2024 to four rate decreases of 25 basis
points each, from about six late on Wednesday, according to LSEG's interest
rate probability app.

 

"It's important to keep in mind that the Fed has to go through a few steps
before it can cut rates," said Wizman.

 

"First, it has to go to a neutral bias, then an easing bias, before it can
cut rates. That can take a few meeting cycles."

 

Wednesday's release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Dec. 12-13
policy meeting was viewed as modestly hawkish by market participants. Fed
officials "stressed . that it would be appropriate for policy to remain at a
restrictive stance for some time until inflation was clearly moving down
sustainably toward the (Federal Open Market) Committee's objective."

 

"Certainly, the Fed minutes yesterday were not suggesting a rate cut in
March," Wizman said.

 

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.9% to $44,114 . Investors are
anticipating the approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of
the first spot bitcoin exchange traded fund over the next week or so.

 

In late morning trading, the dollar index was slightly lower at 102.33 ,
after hitting two-week highs on Wednesday.

 

Against the yen , the greenback rose to two-week peaks, climbing for three
straight days. The dollar was last up 1% at 144.7 yen, on track for its
largest one-day gain since late October.

 

Macquarie's Wizman does not believe dollar gains since the beginning of the
year could be sustained despite a pushback in rate cut expectations.

 

"I do think the U.S. economy will slow, and it's going to be a consumer-led
slowdown and we're going to see convergence between growth rates in the U.S.
and the rest of the world this year," Wizman said.

 

"Over the course of the first six months of the year, we can see some dollar
weakness relative to the euro, sterling, and the yen."

 

The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar to $1.0956 , after higher inflation
data in Europe.

 

French consumer prices rose in December, in line with expectations,
preliminary data from the national statistics body showed on Thursday, due
to an increase in energy and services prices over the year. In Germany, CPI
inflation rose to 3.7% in December, as expected, from 3.2% a month earlier.

 

Sterling also climbed against the dollar following data showing British
borrowers increased demand for loans and business service were more
resilient than feared in Britain

 

UK net borrowing data showed British borrowers increased demand for loans,
in a sign households are mostly coping with high interest rates. Net
borrowing by British consumers was the highest in nearly seven years in
November.

 

A separate business survey, the UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PM),
showed Britain's services firms grew more strongly in December than
initially thought and optimism hit a seven-month high.

 

Sterling was last up 0.3% at $1.2698. It rose as much as 0.5% to $1.2728
after the data release, having fallen 0.87% on Tuesday to a three-week low,
in its biggest one-day drop since mid-October.

 

 

 

 

 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

 

 

 

 

Commodities Markets


Gold price eases as US labor market conditions improve

Gold price (XAU/USD) surrenders their entire intraday gains as United States
labor market conditions have improved broadly. The US Automatic Data
Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for December and weekly jobless
claims for the week ending December 29 remains upbeat. Private US employers
hired 164K workers against expectations of 115K and the former reading of
103K. The US department of Labor reported that individuals claiming jobless
benefits for the first time dropped to 202K vs. the consensus of 216K and
the prior reading of 220K. 

 

The broader appeal for the Gold price is upbeat as prospects of rate cuts
from the Federal Reserve (Fed) have strengthened after the release of the
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. While uncertainty about when
exactly the Fed will announce a rate cut decision could keep volatility in
the Gold price high.

 

 

Meanwhile, robust economic prospects of the United States economy could
force Fed policymakers to delay the announcement of a rate cut than what
market participants have forecasted despite their concerns about policy
over-tightening. 

 

Going forward, investors should be prepared for a sheer volatility as the US
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is due for release on Friday. 

 

Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price surrenders intraday gains while US
Dollar revives

Gold price faces selling pressure near $2,050 as upbeat US labor market
conditions have trimmed prospects of early rate cuts by the Fed.

The uncertainty over rate cuts this year has dissolved as Fed policymakers
are worried about overtightening of the monetary policy, according to the
FOMC minutes released on Wednesday while the timing element is still vague.

In the latest projections, the Fed sees three rate cuts or interest rates
reducing by 75 basis points (bps) this year.

The absence of cues about when exactly the central bank will start trimming
interest rates has slightly impacted prospects of rate cuts from March.

As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances in favour of rate cut in March by 25
bps to 5.00-5.25% have dropped to 66.5%.

Discussions about rate cuts from Fed policymakers indicate that underlying
price pressures are clearly returning to the 2% target and they are
confident of achieving price stability without pushing the economy into a
recession.

The US Dollar Index corrects after printing a fresh two-week high at 102.70
as one thing becomes clear in investors' minds - that the Fed will be the
early adopter of a rate-reduction cycle among the Group of Seven economies.
10-year US Treasury yields drop sharply to near 3.91%.

The market mood, however, could be volatile ahead amid uncertainty regarding
the US NFP report and the ISM Services PMI for December, which will be
released on Friday.

This week, the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed some signs of
recovery in factory data. The agency reported a sharp increase in
Manufacturing PMI to 47.4 against expectations of 47.1 and the former
reading of 46.7. The factory data however remained below the 50.0 threshold
for the straight 14th month, which itself indicates contraction but an
outperformance indicates that overall production is coming back on track.

Technical Analysis: Gold price struggles to recapture 20-EMA

 

 

Gold price faces pressure while recapturing the 20-period Exponential Moving
Average (EMA), which trades around $2,050 on a two-hour scale. The precious
metal witnessed a steep fall after a breakdown below the support zone placed
around $2,055, which is going to act as a resistance ahead.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is demonstrating a range shift move
from 60.00-80.00 to 20.00-60.00 in which the 60.0 region will act as a
ceiling for the Gold price bulls.

 

On a daily time frame, the Gold price finds support after taking a cushion
from the 20-day EMA, which trades around $2,040. This indicates that the
overall demand for the Gold price has not faded yet.

 

 


 

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

 


Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 

 	

Counters trading under cautionary

 

 

 

 	

 

 

 

 

 	

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

 

 	

Padenga

Econet

RTG

 

 	

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

 

 	

ZBFH

 

 

 

 	

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 

Cellphone:      <tel:%2B263%2077%20344%201674> +263 77 344 1674

Alt. Email:       <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com  

Website:         <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> www.bullszimbabwe.com  

Blog:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bulls.co.zw%2Fblog&sa=D&sntz=1
&usg=AFQjCNFoIy6F9IXAiYnSoPSgWDYsr8Sqtw> www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter:         @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:       Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:
<http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FBullsBearsZimba
bwe&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNGhb_A5rp4biV1dGHbgiAhUxQqBXA>
www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 



 

 

 	

 

 

 	

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 

 	

 

 

 	

(c) 2024 Web: <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com>  www.bullszimbabwe.com Email:
<mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +263 4 2927658 Cell:
+263 77 344 1674

 

 	

 

 

 	
							

 

 

 

 

 

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 201886 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130934 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0001.obj>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image005.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 43741 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240105/516c3e7d/attachment-0005.jpg>