Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 09 January 2024

Wed Jan 10 08:05:33 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 09 January 2024

ZSE commentary

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 

ZSE rises further.

The positive trajectory on the bourse continued in Tuesday's session to see
the  primary All Share Index closing 0.76% higher to 257,680.91pts while,
the Blue Chip Index gained 0.65% to 115,331.78pts. The Agriculture Index
grew 0.33% to 677.47pts as the Mid Cap Index added 0.21% to 991,058.88pts.
National Tyre Service topped the winners of the day on a 41.70% jump to
$70.0000 followed by seed producer Seed Co that surged 15.00% to
$1,322.5000. Nampak advanced 14.95% to close at $336.0048 while, apparel
retailer Edgars notched up 14.93% to $152.0000. Brick manufacturer Willdale
capped the gainers of the day on a 9.13% uplift to end the day  pegged at
$46.0000. On the contrary, milk processor Dairibord led the laggards of the
day on a 15.00% drop to $561.9000 while, Meikles shed 7.98% to close at
$1,510.0000. Star Africa declined 1.89% to $9.8000 while, beverage giant
Delta eased 0.15% to $5,023.9227. Fintech group Ecocash Holdings capped the
losers of the day on a 0.05% slid to end the day pegged at $215.0000. The
market closed on a positive breadth of seven after twelve counters recorded
gains against five that faltered in the session.

Activity aggregates were mixed in the session as volume traded succumbed
21.32% to 2.90m shares while, turnover ballooned 86.40% to $2.37b. Econet
(41.42%) dominated the total volume traded for the day after claiming the
largest slice of the cake. The other top volume drivers of the day were
Proplastics (20.38%), Dairibord (19.22%) and OkZim (5.01%). Econet,
Proplastics and Dairibord were the top value drivers of the day after a they
contributed a combined 83.19% to the total outturn. 608,010 units exchanged
hands on the ETFs section which saw MCMS ETF and MIZ ETF trade flat at
$9.5000 and $514.9500 respectively. Cass Saddle ETF and OMTT ETF retreated
13.92% and 0.08% to $5.5605 and $43.0000 respectively. Tigere REIT edged up
5.14% to end the day pegged at $368.0000 after 9,760 units exchanged hands.

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South Africa

South African rand flat as US dollar pauses

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand was flat early on Tuesday, mirroring the
pause in the dollar's rally ahead of a highly anticipated reading on U.S.
inflation due later this week.

At 0711 GMT, the rand traded at 18.6100 against the dollar ZAR=D3, little
changed from Monday's close of 18.6000.

The dollar =USD was last down around 0.04% at 102.26 against a basket of
currencies.

The reading on U.S. inflation is expected to provide some clarity on the
Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook, which often determines direction
for emerging market currencies like the rand.

Monthly manufacturing data due on Thursday will give clues on the health of
the local economy.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond ZAR2030= was almost unchanged
in early deals, with the yield at 9.825%.

-

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets 

Dollar steady as traders brace for US inflation data, bitcoin volatile

(Reuters) - The dollar was steady on Wednesday in cautious trading ahead of
U.S. inflation data due later this week that is likely to influence the
Federal Reserve's policy, while bitcoin was volatile after a fake social
media post rattled markets.

The U.S. securities regulator said someone briefly accessed its X social
media account and posted a fake message saying it had approved exchange
traded funds (ETFs) for bitcoin. The Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) said it had not yet approved spot bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin surged to a fresh 21-month peak of $47,897 after the fake post,
before sliding down to below $45,000 within minutes as the SEC deleted and
disavowed the information.

The world's biggest cryptocurrency was last down 0.5% at $45,897.
Anticipation of a positive SEC decision on ETFs, which is likely to draw
billions in new investments, has boosted bitcoin prices in the past two
months.

"The reality is most who have followed the saga have moved on and the green
light from the SEC is fully priced," said Chris Weston, head of research at
Pepperstone.

Weston said the market was focused on when the various ETFs would start to
trade, how many bitcoins would be held by the end of the year and the dollar
value of inflows over that time.

In the currency market, the dollar remained on the front foot, with the
dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, last at
102.53, after gaining 0.215% on Tuesday.

The index is up 1% this month, after dropping 2% in December as traders
reassess how steep and early the rate cuts from the Fed are likely to be.

The Fed's surprising dovish tilt in December, when it projected 75 basis
points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024, turbo-charged market expectations of
easing with traders last month anticipating as much as 160 bps of cuts.

Markets have since reassessed the chances and currently are pricing in 140
bps of cuts this year.

Traders are focused on the release of the U.S. consumer price index report
on Thursday to help predict the likelihood of a March rate cut. The report
is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in the month and by 3.2% on
an annual basis. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPNY=ECI)

Fed funds futures indicate a 64% probability of the Fed easing in March
versus 80% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at
Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said May was more likely to be the start of
a U.S. rate cut cycle because the labour market is tight and inflation
remains above the Fed's 2% target.

A reassessment of the predicted start of the rate cut cycle could support
the U.S. dollar in the coming months, he said.

In other currencies, the euro was down 0.05% to $1.0926, while sterling was
last at $1.2709, up 0.03% on the day. The Japanese yen weakened 0.19% to
144.74 per dollar.

The Australian dollar rose 0.16% to $0.669.

Australia's inflation slowed to a near two-year low in November and core
inflation also eased sharply, a softer-than-expected result that reinforced
market expectations interest rates would not need to rise any further.

The New Zealand dollar eased 0.02% to $0.624.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold holds ground ahead of US inflation data

(Reuters) - Gold prices were steady on Wednesday as investors exercised
caution ahead of a key U.S. inflation print that could shed some light on
the Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory.

Spot gold was little changed at $2,028.69 per ounce, as of 0405 GMT, trading
in a range of about $6. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,034.20 per ounce.

Reuters Graphics

"A combination of stability in the U.S. dollar and bond yields, in contrast
to what we witnessed at the tail-end of 2023, has effectively applied the
brakes to the gold price," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM
Trade.

The dollar index ticked up against a basket of currencies, and is up 1.6% so
far this month, while yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes remained above
4%.

Traders will turn their focus to Thursday's U.S. consumer price inflation
report that is expected to show headline inflation rose 0.2% in December and
3.2% on an annual basis. (USCPI=ECI), (USCPNY=ECI)

"Any signs of softness in the data could be a boon for the gold price," said
Waterer.

An official U.S. report revealed that consumers expect a decline in
inflation, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the U.S. central bank's
monetary policy seems "sufficiently restrictive".

Market participants are pricing in an about 68% chance of a U.S. rate cut in
March, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding
bullion.

Spot gold may retest support of $2,016 per ounce, a break below which could
open the way towards $2,006, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang
Tao.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $22.93 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.2% to
$931.74, and palladium gained 0.7% to $985.48.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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