Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 January 2024

Wed Jan 31 07:08:07 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 30 January 2024

 <https://www.dulys.co.zw/> 
ZSE commentary

Caledonia eyes Blanket Mine extension as ZSE continues to rally

HARARE - Across-the-board gains lifted the stock market higher as
inflation-driven price adjustments continued, albeit on poor turnover
momentum. The All Share Index rose 7.34% to 490 879.64 taking its record
January gains to 132.83%.

Only three stocks are yet to register double digits gains since the
beginning of the year.

While there was across the board activity, turnover remained subdued at
$3.01 billion after 2.07 million shares exchanged hands. Trades amounted to
282 with Econet the most active at 32.  Ariston led in volume at 827 900
shares while Delta contributed the most to volume at $1.14 billion.

Market capitalisation moved up to $39.34 trillion, with 79% coming from just
ten stocks. Seven counters are now capitalised above $1 trillion with Delta
moving towards US$1 billion capitalisation at $12.79 trillion.

The Top Ten Index was the strongest link with a 7.29% jump to 219 318.73.
BAT led in the constituency with a 15% gain to 4 070 930c but its market cap
remains below $1 trillion at $839.98 billion. First Mutual put on 14.71% to
182 389.58c Delta was 10.52% higher to 979 696.28c.

The Medium Cap Index advanced 7.15% to 1 731 544.56.  General Beltings
jumped 93.71% to 7 000c taking its market cap to $37.56 billion. Seed Co,
Unifreight and ZB Financial Holdings hit limit up to 301 775c, 29 325c and
157 375c respectively.    

OK Zimbabwe rose 14.99% to 41340c and Meikles was 12.95% higher to 671
310.79c with a last transaction price of 680 000c.  Dairibord added 14.84%
to 178 165.08c and Art Holdings put on 14.98% to a 52-week high of 8 135c.

Marginal losses were seen in Proplastics (0.03%) and StarAfrica (1.75%). 

NTS was the best performer after it doubled its price to 14 000c in a low
volume trade of 200 shares. Bridgefort put on 17.65% to 2 000c. These gains
saw the Small Cap Index close 0.07% higher.

On the ETF's, Cass Sadle fell 9.21% to 703.78c. There were marginal gains,
however, on the Old Mutual Top Ten at 2.65% to 7 500c and the Morgan & Co
MS, which has just declared an US$18 000 dividend, put on 1.22% to 51 140c.

The Tigere REIT gained 6.97% to 54 877.77c against a 52-week high of 55 400c
while no trades were recorded on the Revitus REIT.

Axia was the standout performer on the VFEX with a 19.89% gain to 9.10 US
cents while Simbisa recovered 10.76% to 34.70 US cents. As a result, the All
Share Index was 2.33% higher to 99.40.

Innscor was down a fractional 0.09% to 44.89 US cents but was the most
active with 18 trades. Total turnover was at US$80 326 after 361 094 shares
traded.

Meanwhile, Caledonia Mining Corporation said the life of its Blanket Mine in
Zimbabwe will likely be extended after recent in-fill deep drilling produced
better-than-expected grades and widths.

Gold grades from around 1,000 metres (m) below the surface at the Blanket
and Eroica ore bodies ranged between 3.62 grammes per tonne (g/t) to 8.8g/t
over widths of 4-16m.

A new resource and mine plan is expected to be published in the second
quarter of 2024. -
https://www.theanchor.co.zw/blanket-mine-life-likely-to-be-extended-after-en
couraging-drill-results/-finx

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

Nigeria

Nigeria's naira hits new lows vs dollar on forwards market - LSEG data

(Reuters) - Nigerian non-deliverable currency forwards fell sharply to
record lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, mirroring falls on the
official spot market, LSEG data showed.

Non-deliverable currency forwards, derivative products used to hedge against
future exchange rate moves, indicated markets expected the naira's exchange
rate at 1,427.50 to the dollar in one month's time NGNNDFOR=.

FMDQ Exchange data on Monday showed the naira had fallen to a record low of
1,421 per dollar on Friday on the thinly traded official market, below
levels seen on the unofficial parallel market, where the currency trades
freely.

On Monday, Nigeria's central bank warned lenders about under reporting
transactions on the financial market, leading to misinformation, attempts to
create price distortions and market manipulation, and said such activity
would be sanctioned.

The naira's official exchange rate had been drifting towards the parallel
market level as the central bank is yet to clear outstanding amounts owed in
forward deals, worsening a shortage of foreign currency in Africa's biggest
economy.

The central bank still has about $5 billion in forwards that have matured,
after it paid $2.5 billion to manufacturers and importers. The backlog has
been a major concern for investors despite assurances by the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) that it would clear them.

Other maturities on the forwards market on Tuesday also fell, with traders
quoting the currency as low as 1,626.18 naira per dollar in a year's time.

South Africa

South African rand edges lower after budget balance, money supply

(Reuters) -South Africa's rand edged lower on Tuesday after localbudget
balance and money supply figures, asinvestors braced for the Federal
Reserve's monetary policy decision laterthis week.

At 1605 GMT, the rand traded at 18.8500against the dollar ZAR=D3, about 0.2%
weakerthan its previous close.

The dollar index =USD was last up 0.05% against a basket of currencies.

Global attention this week is on the U.S. central bank's interest rate
decision on Wednesday, at which it is expected to leave rates unchanged.
Investors will focus on any clues about the likelihood of a rate cut in
March.

South Africa's budget surplus ZABUDM=ECI decreased to 19.47 billion rand
($1.03 billion) in December from 44.97 billion rand in the same month a year
earlier, National Treasury data showed.

However, growth in money supply and credit extension ended the year stronger
than expected, said Nedbank Group Economic Unit.

M3 money supply growth ZAM3=ECI accelerated to 7.63% year-on-year in
December, and credit growth ZACRED=ECI accelerated to 4.94% year-on-year,
central bank figures showed.

On the stock market, both the Top-40 .JTOPI index and the broader all-share
.JALSH closed about 0.3% higher.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond ZAR2030= was weaker, with the
yield up 1.5 basispoints to 9.780%.

($1 = 18.8565 rand)

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

Canadian Dollar trims Tuesday highs after markets pivot into Greenback

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) shed some points on Tuesday after a moderate
data-beat for December's US JOLTS Job Openings pushed investors back into
the US Dollar (USD). 

Canada brings November's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on Wednesday,
which will be followed by the Canadian S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing
Managers Index (PMI) data on Thursday.

The broad market focus this week continues to be Wednesday's US Federal
Reserve (Fed) rate call. Friday brings another print for the US Nonfarm
Payrolls (NFP).

Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar pulls back from near-term highs

Canadian Dollar is largely mixed on Tuesday but moderately down against
Tuesday's top performers in the US Dollar and the Euro (EUR).

US JOLTS Job Openings in December came in at 9.026 million versus the
expected decline to 8.75 million from November's 8.925 million (revised from
8.79 million).

Initial prints in US labor figures continue to see revisions on an ongoing
basis, JOLTS has been revised every month since at least October 2013.

JOLTS data to see further adjustments from March 6 when the Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) incorporates annual updates to current employment
statistics as seasonal adjustment factors.

JOLTS print pushes rate cut expectations further down, rate swaps now see
62% chance of no rate cut from the Fed in March, 17% chance of no rate move
in April, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Investors will be looking for a firmer pivot from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
on Wednesday.

Fed Monetary Policy Statement slated for 19:00 GMT Wednesday, Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference scheduled for 30 minutes later.

Canadian GDP forecast to tick up slightly from 0.0% to 0.1% in November.

Friday's US NFP forecast to slip to 180K in January from December's 216K.

The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against
listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the weakest against the
US Dollar.

        USD   EUR   GBP   CAD   AUD   JPY     NZD   CHF

USD           0.00%         0.30%         -0.03%        0.30%         0.23%
0.16%         0.17%

EUR  -0.01%                 0.29%         -0.04%        0.30%         0.22%
0.16%         0.14%

GBP  -0.30%        -0.29%                 -0.33%        0.00%         -0.07%
-0.11%        -0.15%

CAD  0.03%         0.04%         0.33%                  0.33%         0.25%
0.18%         0.18%

AUD  -0.31%        -0.30%        0.00%         -0.33%                 -0.07%
-0.13%        -0.15%

JPY    -0.24%        -0.21%        0.07%         -0.26%        0.04%
-0.08%        -0.09%

NZD  -0.16%        -0.16%        0.13%         -0.18%        0.15%
0.07%                  -0.01%

CHF  -0.19%        -0.15%        0.15%         -0.20%        0.13%
0.05%         0.01%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each
other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote
currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from
the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the
percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY
(quote).

Technical Anal          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ysis: Canadian Dollar pulls back from
recent highs against US Dollar

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is moderating on Tuesday, gaining a quarter to a
third of a percent against the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the Australian
Dollar (AUD), while declining around a sixth of a percent against the US
Dollar and the Euro.

The USD/CAD tested into the low side at the 1.3400 handle early Tuesday
before a Greenback rally made up for near-term losses as USD/CAD splashes
around the familiar 1.3430 level.

USD/CAD continues to drift into the low side as the pair grapples with a
bearish crossover of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA),
pricing in a near-term technical ceiling near the 1.3500 handle. 

A continued drag down will see the USD/CAD crack through 1.3400 to make a
fresh run at the last swing low near December's bottom bid of 1.3177.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold rises to a two-week high in the second day of gains. What's next

Gold is traditionally strong in January and early February on buying ahead
of Chinese new year celebration but this year has been an exception. That's
due in large part to broader US dollar buying and rising yields in January
that are a result of stronger US economic data and rate cuts being pushed
back.

However geopolitical tension and the possibility that the Fed still cuts in
March have helped to boost gold so far this week. It gained $10 yesterday
and is up another $16 to $2047 today. That's the highest since January 15.

Technically, a minor downtrend line has been broken from the early January
high and that could clear the way to $2060. In the bigger picture, gold
looks like it's consolidating around these levels for an eventual break --
presumably on central bank rates cuts (or not).

A geopolitical bid is also a strong possibility given the high potential for
the US hitting back on Iran proxies. I suspect that's the biggest reason for
the gold bid this week. However it looks like the US won't launch an attack
directly on Iran so I wonder if risks are now to the downside. At the same
time, the US military isn't exactly known for its delicate touch.

Chinese holidays start February 9 and gold buying could dry up afterwards.
That could take away marginal buyers and lead to a bumpy handoff if the Fed
isn't ready to cut or US economic doesn't disappoint.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
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