Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 01 July 2024

Tue Jul 2 05:53:56 CAT 2024

 <http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullszimbabwe.com
<mailto:bulls at bulls.co.zw> Views & Comments
<http://www.bullszimbabwe.com> Bullish Thoughts
<http://www.twitter.com/BullsBears2010> Twitter
<https://www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe> Facebook
<http://www.linkedin.com/pub/bulls-n-bears-zimbabwe/57/577/72> LinkedIn
<mailto:%20bulls at bullszimbabwe.com?subject=Unsubscribe> Unsubscribe

Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 01 July 2024

 <mailto:sales at dulys.co.zw?subject=Request%20Quote> ZSE commentary

DBF finally exits Fidelity as ZSE opens H2 stronger  

HARARE - Zimbabwe Stock Exchange shares remained in record territory at the
start of second half trades on Monday although the session's spotlight was
on the block trade in Fidelity Life.

The All Share Index rose 2.03% to 131.25 in a session which yielded 13
risers against five fallers amid expectations of improved momentum following
changes made to Capital Gains and the repealing of the 180-day vesting
period, last Friday.

A total of 24.98 million shares in Fidelity worth ZWG19.07 million went
through as a negotiated trade at 76.35c against the normal trading price of
105c. The shares, which constitute 22% of the total shares in issue were
sold by DBF Capital, who had announced their intentions to dispose of this
stake a couple of years back.  The shares are now being housed under a local
asset manager. Zimre Holdings is a major shareholder in Fidelity with 66%
shareholding.

In normal trades, turnover was at ZWG1.72 million after the sale of 876 000
shares. Foreigners sold ZWG1.05 million mostly in Econet against buys of
ZWG201 111. Econet contributed the most to value and volume after 481 100
shares worth ZWG1.26 million exchanged hands. Total trades amounted to 156
with Delta the most active at 21 trades.

The Top 10 added 2.14% to 138.83. EcoCash rose 10.64% to 20.6537c in the
wake of its February full year results where the group saw a recovery in its
digital banking SBU due to increased US dollar transactions. CBZ was 9.65%
higher to 805c.

The Medium Cap Index put on 1.46% to 117.49. ZB Financial Holdings was the
day's best performer putting on 15% to 322c. Last week, shareholder Nick
Vingirai reiterated that shareholders should be aware that agreements of
separation between Intermarket and ZB still exist as he continues to pursue
the return of his assets. The board said it would take note of the
submissions.

TSL rose 14.99% to 159.95c in the wake of its April results where the group
saw improved performance from its logistics business.

Nampak, whose parent company in South Africa says it is not going to put it
up for sale following a good financial performance, put on 13.30% to 51c. 

Willdale shed 0.97% to 3.9611c following the release of its March half year
results were the group reported an inflation-adjusted loss after tax after
performance was weighed down by exchange losses. Sales volumes was, however,
3% up compared to the prior year despite challenges in the market. OK Zim
dropped 0.71% to 52.84c, RioZim pared 0.08% to 63c and Ariston was 0.05%
lower to 4c

Total turnover on the VFEX was at US$106 340 with fairly active trades at
76. Padenga led in volume and value after 349 683 shares worth US$59 271
traded.

Performance-wise, the All Share was up 0.34% to 103.04c. Simbisa led the
risers with a 2.83% gain to 35.98 US cents and Natfoods advanced 2.33% to
153.5 US cents. Other marginal gains were seen in Seed Co International and
Axia.

Edgars was the worst performer after losing 9.50% to 1.81 US cents ahead of
its AGM tomorrow. Zimplow fell 6.32% to 1.78 US cents after its recent
lukewarm trading update. Fractional losses were seen in Innscor, First
Capital Bank and Padenga.-finx

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Currencies & Equity 

South Africa

South African rand gains after Ramaphosa announces new cabinet

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand strengthened in early trade on Monday after
President Cyril Ramaphosa announced his new coalition cabinet, appointing
the leader of the former opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) as agriculture
minister.

At 0737 GMT, the rand traded at 18.0150 against the dollar , 1% stronger
than its previous close.

After weeks of intense deliberations, Ramaphosa named DA leader John
Steenhuisen as part of his cabinet line-up on Sunday, bringing the party and
other coalition members into his new government team.

"There will be a palpable sense of relief that Mr Ramaphosa has finally
named his executive following protracted and often terse negotiations with
his new coalition partners," Oxford Economics said in a research note.

Ramaphosa's African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority for the first
time in three decades in a May 29 election and has formed a unity government
with former rivals as a way to stay in power.

The new 32-member cabinet includes ministers from seven different parties.

Domestic investor focus will be on a monthly purchasing managers' index
(PMI) survey for the local manufacturing sector by Absa and vehicle sales
figures, both due to be released later on Monday.

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index was up 0.5%
while the broader all-share (.JALSH), opens new tab traded 0.8% higher in
early trade.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was stronger, with the yield
down 14.5 basis points to 9.840%.

Nigeria

Naira gains at black market

The naira on Monday recorded gains on the parallel market, also called the
black market as the new foreign exchange (FX) rule by the Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN) commenced on Monday, July 1.

On the black market, the naira gained 0.66 percent as the dollar was quoted
at N1,510 compared to N1,520 quoted on Friday, data collated from street
traders and some online data collating platforms indicated.

Read also: Beyond naira and dollars: 5 unique currencies you never knew
existed

One of the traders said the gain was due to a moderation in demand for
dollars by the end users amid improved supply. However, he was not sure of
the sustainability of the gains.

The CBN last Wednesday announced the discontinuation of its Price
Verification System (PVS) Portal, effective July 1, 2024. This decision
comes in light of recent developments in the Nigerian foreign exchange
market.

The announcement was made through a circular issued by W.J. Kanya, acting
director of the trade & exchange department, referencing the previous
circular dated August 17, 2023, titled "Go-Live of the Central Bank of
Nigeria Price Verification System Portal".

The price verification system portal was an online platform introduced by
the CBN to ensure that the prices of goods and services for foreign exchange
transactions were accurately verified. It aimed to prevent over-invoicing
and under-invoicing, thus ensuring fair pricing in Nigeria's import and
export activities.

With this new directive, all applications for Form 'M' will now be validated
without the need for a price verification report generated from the PVS
portal. The circular explicitly states that the price verification report is
no longer a requirement for completing a Form 'M'.

This policy change aims to streamline processes for authorised dealer banks
and the general public, potentially easing the procedural burden associated
with foreign exchange transactions.

Stakeholders in the banking and finance sectors are advised to note these
changes and adjust their procedures accordingly. Further guidance and
updates from the central bank are anticipated as the new system takes
effect.

MA

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Markets

US yields lift dollar and leave yen languishing

(Reuters) - The dollar was supported by rising U.S. yields and the blowtorch
was on low-yielding currencies on Tuesday such as China's yuan and Japan's
yen, which was pinned to its lowest since 1986.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose nearly 14 basis points to 4.479%
overnight, with analysts attributing the move to expectations of Donald
Trump winning the U.S. presidency and raising tariffs and government
borrowing.

As the dollar rose, the euro handed back part of a small rally as the first
round of France's election turned out more or less in line with polling. The
single currency last bought $1.0735.

"Trump's better (debate) showing over (President Joe) Biden added to
expectations that inflation may pick up pace, yield curves will steepen
further and that the USD may continue to trade at a premium," said OCBC
currency strategist Christopher Wong.

The yen sank to 161.72 per dollar on Monday, its weakest in nearly 38 years,
extending a downward slide driven mainly by a wide gap in interest rates
between the U.S. and Japan.

The yen traded at 161.55 per dollar in Asia on Tuesday and was sinking on
crosses as yen bears were wary that the dollar/yen pair was at risk of
intervention by Japanese authorities.

Against the euro , the yen touched a lifetime low of 173.67 on Monday and
was near that level on Tuesday.

In bonds, at the 10-year tenor, the gap between U.S. and Japanese rates was
340 bps and almost 440 bps at the two-year tenor .

China's yuan , which hit a seven-month low on the dollar last week and has
hardly moved since, faces similar pressure with U.S. 10-year yields more
than 220 bps higher than Chinese government bond yields .

Robust manufacturing data in China and an announcement from the central bank
that it would be borrowing bonds - likely to sell them and steady falling
yields, traders said - gave only the briefest fillip to the currency on
Monday.

It was last at 7.3043 in offshore trade on Tuesday, within a whisker of its
June trough.

The New Zealand dollar slipped 0.3% in early trade and at $0.6075 was
testing support at its 200-day moving average. Sterling was steady at
$1.2641.

The Australian dollar hovered within its recent range at $0.6650 with
traders focused on central bank minutes to gauge how seriously policymakers
are considering interest rate hikes.

Swaps markets pricing implies a one-in-three chance of a rate hike as soon
as next month.

"We know they were talked about, the question is, what is the trigger," said
ING economist Rob Carnell. "We are leaning towards forecasting a hike at the
August meeting."

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Gold holds ground as investors await US jobs data

(Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on Monday, buoyed by some short
covering from investors with focus turning to U.S. jobs data due later this
week that could offer more cues around interest rate cuts by the Federal
Reserve.

Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,329.79 per ounce as of 1:52 p.m. ET (1752 GMT).
Prices registered a more than 4% gain in the second quarter.

U.S. gold futures settled mostly unchanged at $2,338.9.

"We're seeing a little bit of short covering by the shorter term futures
traders and bargain hunting by the guys in the cash market. The markets are
also being supported by firm crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar,"
said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

"We are probably going to grind sideways here or maybe sideways to lower
here for probably the rest of the summer," Wyckoff added.

U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June and a
measure of prices paid by factories for inputs dropped to a six-month low
amid weak demand for goods, indicating that inflation could continue to
subside.

This week, the focus will be on remarks from U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on
Tuesday, followed by minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting
on Wednesday and U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing
contracted for a third straight month in June,

Data last week showed U.S. prices were unchanged in May, while consumer
spending rose moderately.

"Powell is likely to stick to a data-dependent stance, so should payrolls
later this week come in softer, it could again lift gold prices," UBS
analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

The market now sees a 64% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in
September as well as another cut in December.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

 Invest Cellphone:            +263 71 944 1674 | +27 79 993 5557 

Email:               bulls at bullszimbabwe.com

Website:            www.bullszimbabwe.com 

Blog:                 www.bullszimbabwe.com/blog

Twitter (X):        @bullsbears2010

LinkedIn:           Bulls n Bears Zimbabwe

Facebook:          www.facebook.com/BullsBearsZimbabwe

Skype:         Bulls.Bears 

DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls 'n Bears, a division of
Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not
constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or
subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has
been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or
warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All
opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without
notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be
suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth
companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than
the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any
other member of Bulls 'n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability
whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its
contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this
report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent
investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of
any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are
for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

 (c) 2024 Web: www.bullszimbabwe.com Email: bulls at bullszimbabwe.com Tel: +27
79 993 5557 | +263 71 944 1674

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0001.html>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image001.png
Type: image/png
Size: 34378 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0001.png>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image002.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 273846 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0003.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image003.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 27362 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0004.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: image004.jpg
Type: image/jpeg
Size: 37760 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0005.jpg>
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: oledata.mso
Type: application/octet-stream
Size: 130916 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://listmail.bulls.co.zw/pipermail/bulls/attachments/20240702/58161ecb/attachment-0001.obj>