Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 07 June 2024
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Major International Business Headlines Brief::: 07 June 2024
ü Malawi: Govt, Health Workers Hit Deadlock - Nation-Wide Sit in Set for
Monday
ü Uganda's Economy On Right Track - Museveni
ü Africa: Hydropower Damages River Systems in Africa - How More Solar and
Wind Power Can Solve This Problem
ü Rwanda: Nst1 - Rwanda Created 1.3M Jobs, Exports Doubled Over Seven Years
ü Angola: Certification Work for Catumbela International Airport At an
Advanced Stage
ü South Africa: Richards Bay Minerals' $460m Expansion Project Revived As
Security Improves
ü Nigeria: Edun Presents New Minimum Wage Template to Tinubu
ü Nigeria: Edo Community Protests Over Alleged Maltreatment By Oil Compa
ü Africa: Unlocking Africa's E-Commerce Potential
ü Nigeria's Power Struggles - How Renewable Energy Can Light the Way
Forward
ü Nigeria: Reps Approve FCT 2024 Supplementary Budget of N98.5 Billion
ü Nigeria: High Inflation, Weak Naira May Slow Down Economic Growth - CITN
ü Woman sues Netflix over Baby Reindeer character
ü Will the UK and US cut interest rates like Europe?
ü British tech tycoon cleared in US fraud trial
ü Plans to use Facebook and Instagram posts to train AI criticised
ü Eurozone cuts interest rate for first time in 5 years
<https://www.cloverleaf.co.zw/> Malawi: Govt, Health Workers Hit Deadlock -
Nation-Wide Sit in Set for Monday
After several months of failed negotiations with the government, healthcare
workers have finally resolved to hold nation-wide sit in beginning Monday,
June 10 2024, until government resolves their grievances.
The strike follows government's perceived lack of commitment to resolve
their grievances which include demands to increase their allowances and to
improve working conditions.
The healthcare workers are operating under the National Organisation of
Nurses and Midwives of Malawi (Nonm) and Physician Assistants Union of
Malawi (Paum).
Meanwhile, Paum president Solomon Chomba and his Nonm counterpart, Shouts
Simeza, have written hospital directors for central hospitals, directors of
health and social services for district hospitals and hospital directors for
Christian Health Association of Malawi (Cham) on the strike.
It reads: "By this letter, we write to request you all to prepare
accordingly for the needed coverage of the hospitals during the entire
period of the sit-in.
"As you may be aware, we are currently unable to indicate the duration of
the sit-in as it is dependent on the response and action by the government."
Last minute attempts by Attorney General Thabo Chakaka-Nyirenda to intervene
on the matter did not yield any results on Wednesday.
- Nyasa Times.
Uganda's Economy On Right Track - Museveni
President Yoweri Museveni on Thursday painted a bright future for Uganda's
economy, which he said is on the right track .
"Uganda's economy is moving forward, mistakes by some actors
notwithstanding. Given our correct position, we are unstoppable as
everything is in place,"Museveni said.
The president was on Thursday delivering his state of the nation address to
parliament at Kololo Independence grounds.
The state of the nation address is meant for the president to give an
account of the progress of the country in terms of economic, political and
social affairs in the past one year and forecast what is to come in the
upcoming year.
Speaking during the televised address attended by MPs mostly from the ruling
NRM party, diplomatic corps, accounting officers, religious and traditional
leaders among other stakeholders, Museveni said the economy has been able to
grow multiple times from $1.5 billion in 1986 to now $ 55 billion by the
forex exchange method and $180.29 bn by the PPP method.
Uganda is now in the lower middle-income status.
The president, however, took a swipe at foreigners for interfering in
Uganda's internal affairs but said they will not succeed.
"The foreigners interfering in our internal affairs, are not a threat at
all."
Museveni boasted that since 1986, his NRM government was able diagnose
Uganda's problems leading to accelerated growth of the economy.
" NRM has correct philosophical ideological and positions. That is why the
economy is growing in spite of the betrayal by the parasites. With the
crushing of the corruption, Uganda, given our overall correct positions, is
unstoppable. Everything else is in place."
Integration
The president said these achievement will all be in vain if the East African
region and African don't integrate to create a market for each other's goods
and services.
"When wealth creators get serious with production, when they increase the
production of goods and services, the internal market is no longer enough.
We need the East African market, we need the African market and we need the
global market."
According to Museveni, since the recovery of the economy, Uganda's sugar
production has moved to 600,000 metric tonnes per year, yet the internal
market can only consume 380,000 metric tonnes while 5.3 billion litres of
milk are produced per year and only 800 million litres are consumed locally.
The president said cement production has reached 6.4 million metric tonnes
and yet internal demand is only 2.4 million tonnes, noting that this is
where the issue of integration comes in because it supports Uganda's
development.
Who will buy all this surplus? The answer for all these questions is that,
it is, mainly, East and Central Africa that are buying the surplus. The
COMESA area is buying goods and services worth $2.157 billion from Uganda.
Therefore, the NRM was right to distil the principles of patriotism and Pan-
Africanism and to oppose groups that were pushing for parochialism in Uganda
and Euro- centrism globally. After the careful analysis, we realized that
our prosperity, first and foremost, needed patriotism and Pan-Africanism,"
Museveni said.
" We access other markets in addition, but let us secure these two levels
first. This is why we worked so hard to revive the EAC and consolidate
COMESA."
- Nile Post.
Africa: Hydropower Damages River Systems in Africa - How More Solar and Wind
Power Can Solve This Problem
Across the African continent, more than 300 new hydropower projects are
planned to meet the growing demand for electricity. Some of these will
require big dams, which can have major negative environmental impacts.
Another looming problem with hydropower is that the water cycle is affected
by climate change. Water availability will be reduced and become more
variable in some locations in the next decades.
We are a team of environmental and energy systems researchers. Energy
systems is the study of how energy can be produced to meet the demand of the
different sectors of society. Environmental systems modelling is used to
simulate the natural environment and evaluate the impacts of infrastructure
on it.
We analysed the likely development of energy systems in Africa from 2020 to
2050, looking at energy demand, the changing use of land and its impact on
energy and how the warming climate will affect water availability.
Read more: Climate change will affect hydropower -- African countries must
be prepared
The continent of Africa still uses 80% less electricity than the global
average per capita. But given the projected population growth and increase
in living standards, electricity demand in Africa will rise. This means new
power generation infrastructure will be needed.
Our research found that wind and solar projects will be more cost effective
than hydropower by 2030. This means that only 40% to 68% of the planned
hydropower capacity in Africa will be economically attractive.
What also needs to be considered is that reducing the impact of droughts on
energy systems requires overbuilding infrastructure. This means more energy
infrastructure than needed on average is required to be reliable against
extreme droughts. An overall increased annual investment in new power plants
(of any type) of 1.8% to 4% will be needed across the continent.
This additional investment is needed when considering a worst-case scenario
for hydropower generation. This scenario also includes the effects of
climate change and the reduced cost of renewables on the power system
expansion.
Hydropower no longer the solution
Hydropower is currently the main source of renewable electricity on the
African continent with around 40GW of capacity installed. This generates
around 150 TWh of electricity in a year, 15% of the total electricity
consumption in the continent. This is enough to satisfy the annual power
consumption of two countries of the size of Morocco and Algeria with a total
population of 82.5 million people, for example. It has been considered a
cheap source of electricity with a low carbon footprint. But this is no
longer strictly true.
Hydropower presents the following problems.
Renewable power sources such as solar and wind power are becoming
increasingly cost-competitive. These can reduce hydropower reliance,
diversify countries' energy portfolios, and reduce the environmental impact
of building more hydropower dams.
African river basins support land and freshwater ecosystems that are global
biodiversity hotspots. Of the 543 major rivers in the world - those that are
longer than 500km and which flow in an uninterrupted way to the sea - 156
(29%) are located in Africa. Dams disturb this by breaking up the flow of
rivers.
In Africa, 26% of rivers have been fragmented or broken up - much lower than
the global average of 43%. This means that African rivers are valuable hubs
of connected river habitats. If all the planned African hydropower projects
were built, we estimate that average river fragmentation could rise to 42%,
potentially leading to large biodiversity loss.
For example, researchers found that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
would result in the displacement of 122,000 people, release seven million
tonnes of carbon dioxide, and alter the Blue Nile's water temperature,
making it unsuitable for many of the plants and animals living there.
Whenever a new dam is built, water submerges land. The soil and other matter
found on the land (biomass) is digested under the water and this process
releases into the atmosphere carbon dioxide and methane, a potent greenhouse
gas. These emissions are released from the dams for years after they are
first built.
Hydropower emissions would increase by almost 25 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalents per year at least for a few decades, substantially
hindering progress towards net zero emissions. This would be equivalent to
what is emitted per person over 25 million trans-Atlantic round-trip
flights.
Hydropower is vulnerable to climate change: as droughts kick in and water
runs out, hydropower won't be as available or as cost effective. Looking at
the whole energy system, our previous research has found that the
availability of hydro, combined with solar and wind power decreasing in
cost, means that about 32% to 60% of the proposed hydropower projects are no
longer economically competitive. Building new solar and wind renewable
systems comes with an overall lower energy system cost than building all
proposed hydropower projects.
Furthermore, our new study shows it's possible to reduce the impacts of the
hydropower projects that are cost-competitive by deploying more renewables.
Additional river fragmentation and hydropower emissions can be reduced by at
least 50% with a minimal increase in electricity prices (at most +1.4%).
Why it matters
Currently, energy systems are mostly planned based on engineering and
economic considerations. But it is more cost-effective overall if
governments plan new energy systems taking into account the available
technology, its cost, and costs that would be incurred by projects that
damage the environment and communities (such as big dams).
We argue that the scope of energy system planning must be expanded so that
it takes into account all these factors. Indeed, including social and
environmental objectives is key to making sure that the energy transition is
clean and just.
Read more: 76% of Africa's energy could come from renewable sources by 2040:
here's how
This research finding is very important because hydropower plants continue
to be planned in many large river basins, based on the mistaken belief that
they are the cheapest form of renewable energy.
For the best results in Africa, there will need to be cooperation between
different countries. This could help to overcome the regionally unequal
distribution of investment costs and potential energy deficits between the
different countries.
Rwanda: Nst1 - Rwanda Created 1.3M Jobs, Exports Doubled Over Seven Years
Rwanda's exports more than doubled from slightly over $1 billion in 2017 to
more than $2.4 billion in 2023, while the country created more than 1.37
million jobs under the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1),
according to Prime Minister Edouard Ngirente.
"We achieved this mainly because of implementing government strategies in
line with recovering the economy [from the Covid-19 pandemic impact], but
largely the Made in Rwanda programme, but also the initiative to facilitate
investors both foreign and Rwandan who are engaged in exports," Ngirente
said.
The premier gave the update on June 5, while briefing the joint sitting of
Parliament on the achievements of the National Strategy for Transformation
(NST1) also known as Seven-Year Government Programme which ran from July 1,
2017, to June 30, 2024.
On the trade and industry sector, Ngirente said that the targets under the
strategy included increasing the output of domestic industries, Rwanda's
exports, promoting trade with neighboring countries, and boosting mineral
trade.
To that end, he said, various factories were set up including those for
manufacturing pharmaceuticals, construction materials, packaging materials,
mosquito nets, and fertiliser blending, among others.
As a result, he pointed out, the target for the manufacturing sector to
contribute 21.7 per cent to the country's economy - gross domestic product
(GDP) - was achieved.
"Now, the contribution of manufacturing to GDP stands at 22 per cent. That
made the output of domestic industry grow by about 10 per cent every year
since 2017," he said, adding that efforts to develop the industry sector are
ongoing.
Rwanda's GDP rose significantly from more than Rwf7 trillion in 2017 to more
than Rwf16 trillion in 2023, Ngirente told parliamentarians, indicating that
the annual economic growth was 7 per cent on average. But, he said, the
country's economy suffered a 3.4 per cent dip in 2020 as Covid-19 had a toll
on it.
The industry sector, he said, greatly contributed to employment in the
country, especially for the youth, and women.
Meanwhile, he said that Rwanda's mineral export revenues considerably went
up from about $373 million in 2017 to more than $1.1 billion in 2023.
The premier indicated that the country invested in value addition to
minerals for higher revenues, instead of exporting them in raw form.
"We have so far set up four mineral processing factories so that they get
added value before being exported," he said, adding that the mineral value
addition journey continues.
Job creation
Overall, Ngirente indicated, more than 1,374,000 jobs were created, against
the target of at least 1.5 million jobs, implying that it was achieved at
91.6 per cent.
The inability to achieve the target was largely attributed to the impact of
Covid-19 pandemic on the economy, which slowed down the progress.
Due to the Covid-19 shock, job creation was somehow brought to a standstill
for about two years, and some workers were laid off, the premier observed.
"That had a bad impact on us. But, the gap [between created jobs and the
target] is not very big," he said, expressing the wish "to create very many
jobs that make our youth employed."
- New Times.
Angola: Certification Work for Catumbela International Airport At an
Advanced Stage
Lobito The certification of Catumbela International Airport, in the
province of Benguela, depends on some procedures that are being refined for
a better exercise of aeronautical activity, ANGOP learned on Thursday.
The information was given to the press by the Minister of Transport, Ricardo
D'Abreu, who was speaking on the sidelines of the 15th Consultative Council
of his department, which takes place in the railway city of Lobito.
According to the official, the certification of the aforementioned airport
depends on a set of actions of an operational nature, procedures, review of
manuals, training of human resources, infrastructure and equipment, which
are in an 'advanced stage'.
The minister assured, however, that its certification will take place this
year.
'We will have an excellent infrastructure available to support aeronautical
activity, allowing international flights to come to Benguela and which can
also be used in cases of emergency, if there is a need for an aircraft to
land here for safety reasons', he clarified.
Ricardo D'Abreu said that there are other implications from an aeronautical
point of view, such as benefits for other entities in the sector, with
emphasis on air navigation.
'Once we have other infrastructures on the ground capable of ensuring this
service, it also allows other routes to be implemented in airspace,
particularly for aircraft that are in transit', he stated.
In relation to the Dr António Agostinho Neto International Airport, he said
that an action plan was presented to ensure its operationalization, which is
being fulfilled.
"At the time we said we would start an operational transfer of cargo in 2023
and passengers at the end of 2024," he said.
According to the minister, to start the cargo operation it was necessary to
guarantee certification, in order to receive international flights.
'We said a year ago that passenger flights are scheduled for the last
quarter of 2024 and this requires the Airport to be certified', he
emphasized.
In his approach, the governor also referred to the Southern Corridor, which
covers the provinces of Namibe, Huíla and Cuando-Cubango.
Regarding this chapter, he said it is another opportunity that the country
has to boost the value chain in that region of Angola.
'It has different characteristics from the Lobito Corridor, because it still
has no border connection', explained the minister, adding that his
department is preparing the conditions so that, in the second quarter of
this year, it can launch the international tender for its concession.
Regarding the Lobito Corridor, he said that the benefits are beginning to be
visible, but that it is not a finished work.
>From his perspective, this work must be continued because there are
obligations on the concessionaire's side and also on the Government's side,
so that the corridor can be impactful and robust.
'This is ongoing work and will not cease. The experimental exercise of
transporting minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia has
already begun, with five weekly shipments, with the prospect of this number
increasing to meet the obligations in terms of concession volumes,' he
stated.
According to the minister, this factor is creating a dynamic around the
corridor, integrating other sectors, such as agribusiness and industry.
The Lobito Corridor has as its concessionaire the Lobito Atlantic Railway, a
joint venture formed by the Swiss companies Vecturis, the Belgian company
Trafigura and the Portuguese company Mota Engil.
It won the international competition on September 4, 2021 and signed the
concession contract on July 4, 2023.
Cabotage
Asked about the cabotage service carried out at the ports located in the
center and south of the country, namely the Port of Lobito and Namibe, the
government official said that his sector initially prioritized the northern
area, with emphasis on the province of Cabinda.
'The dependence of the province of Cabinda on the transport system is very
great and that is why it was prioritized', he said.
However, Ricardo D'Abreu admitted that after consolidating this service in
the north, it could benefit the center-south area of the country.
'We need to be able to evolve towards the center-south of the country', he
informed.
The minister made a point of stating that the cabotage project is not
exclusive to the Government.
'It is open to the private sector and those who want to participate in the
project, which is commercially viable, have all the conditions to do so', he
warned.TC/CRB/DOJ
- ANGOP.
South Africa: Richards Bay Minerals' $460m Expansion Project Revived As
Security Improves
Richards Bay Minerals, which mines the key industrial mineral titanium from
mineral sands, said on Thursday that its long-delayed $460m Zuthi South
expansion project was being resurrected as unrest around its operations has
faded three years after its general manager was murdered.
Richards Bay Minerals (RBM) managing director Werner Duvenhage made the
announcement as the company, a unit of global mining giant Rio Tinto,
unveiled a 20-year renewable energy agreement to procure 140MW of wind power
- a long-term commitment that shows it is in restive KwaZulu-Natal for the
long haul.
The Zuthi South expansion project, originally priced at $463-million, was
put on ice by Rio in 2020 as the security situation around RBM deteriorated,
culminating in the murder of general manager Nico Swart in May 2021.
Now the expansion project is back on track.
Duvenhage told journalists that RBM hoped to take the blueprint to the Rio
board in the first half of next year, pending the outcome of a feasibility
study and due diligence around that.
"Next year, we hope to get a decision and if it's favourable, we hope to
start with the project," he said.
"In partnership with government, we have very much been able to get a stable
environment... The current operations are running very smoothly. Unrest is
almost unheard of."
Duvenhage said it had been "very quiet" since the July 2021 riots, paving
the way to revive the shelved expansion plans. This is likely to come...
-Daily Maverick.
Nigeria: Edun Presents New Minimum Wage Template to Tinubu
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of The Economy, Mr Wale Edun,
on Thursday submitted to President Bola Tinubu a new minimum wage template
to be used for negotiation with the tripartite panel comprising of
government officials, labour and the organized private sector (OPS).
Edun submitted the document to the President in his office at the State
House, Abuja.
Prodded by reporters on how far government negotiations with the organized
labour had gone after submitting the report, Edun informally told newsmen
"No cause for alarm".
The Finance Minister was in the company of the Minister of Budget and
National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, and his Information and National
Orientation counterpart, Mohammed Idris.
President Tinubu had on Tuesday mandated him to work out a template to be
adopted as the basis for negotiation with the Presidential panel.
The President had also assured that he was ready to pay more than the
N60,000 offered by the government's team as the maximum the government could
pay as minimum wage to workers.
The inability of the government team to offer more than N60,000 while the
labour was demanding N464,000 as.minimum wage led to a nationwide strike
that was recently relaxed.
- This Day.
Nigeria: Edo Community Protests Over Alleged Maltreatment By Oil Company
Residents of Evbohenoba Community in Orhionmwon Local Government Area of Edo
State have protested the alleged ill treatment being meted out to them by
Summit Oil International and Duport Midstream Company.
The protesters displayed placards with various inscriptions and marched
round the community chanting solidarity songs.
Some of the placards read: 'Pay compensation for desecrating our cemetery',
'Government hear our cry', and 'We are denied our means of livelihood by the
company, why?' among others.
One of the protesters, Atoe Osaretin, said the activities of Duport and
Summit oil attracted insecurity and kidnapping by suspected herdsmen, of
which he was a victim.
He lamented that despite not receiving any form of recognition from the
operating companies, they have also sown discord and enimity within the
community.
He alleged that the company deployed "divide-and-rule" tactics to keep the
people under control, while they continue with the exploration and refining
activities.
According to him, "there haven't been any form of employment for the people
of the community".
They added that efforts of the community members to speak up through
protests and other forms of advocacy actions have been met with military
intimidation by the company and the government.
On her path, the women leader of the community, Queen Eremwense, stated that
the women of the community were going through untold hardship and poverty as
their land had been taken away by the company, while the people were left
with no tangible source of livelihood, and no compensation for their land.
- This Day.
Africa: Unlocking Africa's E-Commerce Potential
As the digital marketplace blooms across Africa, with an estimated growth of
$75 billion by 2025, giants like Amazon are stepping onto the stage. What's
next?
Africans are gradually embracing the convenience of online shopping.
However, this trend is still in its early stages in Africa -- compared to
more established markets, such as Asia, Europe and the United States.
Projections by the McKinsey Global Institute suggest that by 2025,
e-commerce could account for 10% of all retail sales in Africa's largest
economies: Nigeria, South Africa and Egypt.
According to experts, while the e-commerce sector holds significant
potential in Africa, it faces challenges related to cultural and logistical
factors. These considerations are crucial when customizing products and
services to align with local preferences.
Who are Africa's key e-commerce players?
Africa's largest online marketplace is Jumia, a marketplace company that
attracts 23 million visits per month, followed by online shopping platform
Takealot.com with 10 million monthly visits, 96% of which are from its home
country of South Africa.
Souq.com, a Middle Eastern business that was acquired by Amazon in 2017, has
around 10 million monthly visits, most of which are from Egypt. Meanwhile,
in South Africa, the fashion and lifestyle retailer SHEIN is the most
popular shopping app.
Jumia's East Africa regional CEO, Vinod Goel, told DW that Africa's online
market is still in its infancy.
"We can also see what has happened in the markets where e-commerce has
become very mature, for example, China," Goel told DW.
"Southeast Asia, India, Europe, and the US. In these markets, e-commerce has
already taken a higher percentage and we can see that this is going to
happen in Africa as well," he said, adding that industry is entering an
"interesting sweet phase where those barriers are fading away."
Jumia, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, attracts sales from
Nigeria, Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, South Africa, amongst other countries.
Attracting fresh shoppers on social media
Internet penetration has grown in Africa with around 570 million internet
users in 2022 -- a number that more than doubled compared to 2015, according
to statista.
Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, has the largest number of users
which has aided in the rise of online shopping.
Olisa Chukwumah, a DW correspondent based in Nigeria's capital Lagos, said
social media has become a decentralized tool to find and reach customers
directly through platforms such as Instagram.
"You can reach them with the pictures, you can reach them with the quality
of what you're offering, you can reach them with a pricing so they can
actually reach you directly," he said, adding that internet penetration has
been the major driver, particularly for Nigeria when it comes to this online
shopping industry.
Challenges to online shopping growth
For e-commerce to also thrive on the continent, there are barriers that need
to be addressed.
Some Nigerians who DW spoke to pointed out that credibility and efficient
delivery services are cruical to customer satisfaction.
"Sometimes they advertise one thing, you place an order, but when you get
what you've ordered, it's not what you wanted to pay for," one Nigerian
said.
Another Nigerian pointed out that customer service is a widespread issue in
Nigeria.
"So we have vendors that as long as they've gotten their money and you've
paid to them, managing the customer's emotion is still a challenge. You find
that sometimes they might not pick your calls," she told DW.
DW correspondent Chukwumah concurred with those challenges, adding that
getting scammed is still an issue when buying online.
"Nigeria is one kind of a country where they will flood your timeline, they
will flood your comments with accusations, they will draw the authorities to
you. So they will get you," he said.
Amazon sets foot in South Africa
Amazon last month started operations in South Africa. The e-commerce giant
is entering a space dominated largely by local e-commerce companies, such as
Takealot, and many online retailers in their infancy that are hoping to
thrive.
Online retailer Paula Maseko said Amazon coming to South Africa could
disadvantage small businesses like hers since Amazon "have more resources
than we do and they will most probably have lower prices than we do."
Maseko was optimistic and said her business, like many others, would have to
change and adapt in order to survive.
Nigeria's Power Struggles - How Renewable Energy Can Light the Way Forward
Frequent blackouts disrupt daily life and hinder economic development. This
situation has been exacerbated by the recent government decision to raise
electricity tariffs.
On Monday, 3 June, Nigerian labour unions, protesting for higher wages and
lower electricity tariffs, forced a nationwide blackout that lasted two
days. While the wisdom of this tactic can be debated, it highlights the
severe hardships Nigerians face due to unreliable power and a seemingly
unresponsive government.
One year into President Bola Tinubu's "Renewed Hope" administration,
objective indicators (as seen in Bismark Rewane's presentation on Channels
TV) suggest the country's situation has worsened. Government spending
appears focused on self-serving pursuits rather than initiatives that
stimulate economic growth. A glaring example is the Lagos-Calabar road
project. Despite public resistance and billions in private property
demolition, the administration bulldozed through with awarding the N15
trillion project to a close associate of Mr Tinubu, bypassing a cost-benefit
analysis and public bidding process.
The Crushing Grip of Power Outages
Frequent blackouts disrupt daily life and hinder economic development. This
situation has been exacerbated by the recent government decision to raise
electricity tariffs. Band A customers now face a staggering 400 per cent
increase, from N50/kWh to N220/kWh. Other bands saw close to a 50 per cent
hike to roughly N70/kWh. While intended to improve the power sector's
financial health, these increases create an even greater burden on already
struggling families and businesses, especially considering the unreliable
power supply.
Imagine owning a small business that loses power unexpectedly. Machines
grind to a halt, customers leave, and a day's earnings vanish. Economists
use the term "value of lost load" (VoLL) to quantify the cost of these
outages. For businesses, this can range from N3,000 to N15,000 per lost
kilowatt-hour (kWh). A medium-sized business experiencing a day of blackout
could lose millions of Naira. The impact extends beyond the business owner,
affecting employees, suppliers, and the entire community.
A Ray of Hope: Solar Power
There's a beacon of hope shining through: renewable energy, particularly
solar power. However, urgent action is needed from the "Renewed Hope"
administration to make it accessible to most Nigerians, many of whom are
struggling to afford basic necessities.
Beyond the current challenges, a compelling case can be made for solar
power. In fact, a solar system with approximately four hours of battery
storage is currently the most cost-effective source of electricity. Let's
delve into the specifics with a practical example.
Case Study: Restaurant Owner in Abuja
Imagine you own a restaurant in Wuse 2, Abuja, and are subject to the new
Band A rates. Your restaurant operates from 6:00 a.m. to 2:00 a.m., with
peak customer traffic during lunch (12:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.) and dinner
(6:00 p.m. to 12:00 a.m.). To maintain operations, you require five 1.5 HP
AC units (approximately 45 kWh for 8 hours of operation), refrigerators,
lighting, and microwave ovens, resulting in a daily electricity consumption
of around 100 kWh, with peak usage during the mentioned 8-hour window.
Since sunlight is unavailable between 6:00 p.m. and 12:00 a.m., your battery
system needs to be robust enough to power these appliances during those
hours. Lithium-ion batteries, known for their lifespan of up to 10 years,
would be a suitable choice. Ideally, you would have access to grid power
during these peak hours, but a backup diesel generator is a wise safety
measure to ensure uninterrupted operations, especially considering the
potential financial consequences of a blackout.
Let's now compare the costs associated with two scenarios, assuming a 50 per
cent grid availability. We will omit the upfront cost of a diesel generator
in each scenario as it is assumed that the restaurant keeps one for backup
in either scenario:
Scenario 1: Solar plus Lithium Ion Batteries + Grid (~N27,600 daily)
Scenario 2: Grid + Diesel Generator (~N35,000 daily)
Scenario 1: Solar plus Lithium Ion Batteries and Grid
Assumptions:
Solar Power System:
Capacity: 16 kWp (simulated to generate on average 70kWh daily @4.65 kWh/kWp
out of which we use 50kWh and store 20kWh in the batteries) @ ~N282k/kW
(assuming 500W panels at N141k each)
Battery Storage: 20 kWh * N350k/kWh (for 4 hours of reliable storage)
Additional Components: Inverters, charge controllers, Battery Management
System (BMS) and installation cost can vary depending on quality and brand
but let's estimate N2.5m
Grid Tariff: N220/kWh
Loan Interest Rate: 48 per cent (most consumer (micro) finance loans will be
around 4 per cent monthly)
Cost Calculations:
Solar Upfront Cost: Solar (N4.5m) + Battery Storage Cost (N7m) + Additional
Components (2.5m) = N14m (financed by solar provider or microfinance)
Solar Generation: 70 kWh
Grid Reliance: Daily Grid Consumption (assuming most grid consumption
happens when the sun is down): 100kWh-70 kWh= 30kWh
Daily Grid Cost: 30kWh*220/kWh= N6,600
Estimated Daily Solar Loan Payment: N21,000 per day, assuming a 5-year loan
term with no down payment.
Blended Daily Solar & Grid Cost: N 21,000 (loan) + N6,600 (grid) = N27,600
If the interest rate comes down to 10 per cent due to government
intervention, daily solar cost becomes N10,000 (total N16,600 blended), or
you are able to get a loan at commercial bank rates of 30 per cent, N15,000
(total N21,600 blended)
Figure 1: 16kWp Solar Simulation on a popular restaurant on Aminu Kano in
Abuja
Scenario 2: Blended Grid & Diesel
Diesel Costs:
50kWh assuming about 0.4 litres/kWh (may be significantly higher due to the
inefficiency of the generator and theft) = 20 litres
Daily Diesel Cost (during outages): 20 litres * N1200/litre = N24,000
Grid Cost: Average Daily Cost: (50kWh * 220) = N11,000
Blended Diesel & Grid Cost: This totals approximately N35,000 per day.
Making Solar Power Accessible for Businesses
The previous analysis demonstrates that even with a 48% interest rate, the
restaurant saves N7,000 per day on electricity, a significant 20% reduction
compared to the alternative. Additionally, diesel prices are likely to
fluctuate, especially if the Naira continues to depreciate. In contrast, a
solar system has minimal recurring costs once installed.
However, a legitimate concern is affordability. Upfront costs of N14 million
and the prospect of loans without a down payment might seem daunting. While
some solar companies offer financing, the interest rates, as we've seen, can
be high.
Bridging the Gap: Government and Financial Sector Solutions
This is where the government and the financial sector can play a crucial
role in making solar power more accessible for businesses. Here are some
potential solutions:
Solar Loan Programmes: The government, in collaboration with the Bank of
Industry or traditional banks, could establish loan programmes with
significantly lower interest rates (around 10 per cent) specifically for
solar installations.
Loan Guarantees: By providing loan guarantees, the government can mitigate
the risk for lenders, encouraging them to offer solar loans at more
favourable rates.
Tax Breaks: Businesses that invest in solar power systems could be
incentivized with tax breaks to offset the upfront costs. For instance,
imagine offsetting up to N10 million of your total tax liabilities
(including VAT). This could be a powerful incentive.
Solar Asset-Backed Loans: Financial institutions could offer loans secured
by the solar system itself. Since solar panels have value and generate
income through electricity cost savings, this reduces the risk for lenders.
Net Metering: To fully meet your energy needs at all times, a solar system
might require oversizing. Net metering allows you to sell excess power back
to the grid for cash or grid credits, making installations even more
efficient and cost-effective.
Taking Action Now
While it would have been preferable for the government to implement these
policies before raising electricity tariffs, it's never too late to act.
For those of us facing constant grid failures and unreliable Band A service,
there's a Nigerian spirit in finding private solutions to public issues.
Call your local solar installer today and start saving your family or
business money - the numbers speak for themselves.
- Premium Times.
Nigeria: Reps Approve FCT 2024 Supplementary Budget of N98.5 Billion
The N98.5 billion is in addition to the N1.2 trillion budget passed in March
by the National Assembly.
The House of Representatives has passed the 2024 supplementary bill of N98.5
billion for the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA).
The approval followed the adoption of a report presented by the Chairperson
of the House Committee on FCT, Muktar Betara (APC, Borno), on Thursday
during plenary.
The N98.5 billion is in addition to the N1.2 trillion budget passed in March
by the National Assembly.
President Bola Tinubu on 16 March sent the supplementary budget to the two
chambers of the National Assembly for approval.
Presenting the synopsis of the report, Mr Betara said the committee
scrutinised the presentation by the president and concluded that the money
was needed to develop certain infrastructure in the federal capital.
According to the report, the committee recommended that "all revenues
accruing to the Federal Capital Territory Administration, including the
Statutory Revenue distribution, shall be paid into the Federal Capital
Territory Administration's Statutory Revenue Account.
"No monies shall be withdrawn from the Account mentioned in Section 3(1)
above without appropriation by the National Assembly."
"Where, due to revenue shortfall, amounts appropriated under this Bill
cannot be funded, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory shall seek
from the National Assembly a waiver not to incur such expenditure," the
report reads in part.
The breakdown of the budget is as follows: N48.5 billion for engineering
services, N18 billion for the education secretariat, N16 billion for public
buildings, and N16 billion for the department of transportation.
The report was adopted by the Committee of Supply without opposition from
members.
Subsequently, the bill was passed for a third reading when it was put to a
vote by the presiding officer, Deputy Speaker Ben Kalu.
- Premium Times.
Nigeria: High Inflation, Weak Naira May Slow Down Economic Growth - CITN
High inflation, naira weakness and policy tightening may threaten economic
growth in the year 2024, the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria
(CITN) has observed.
The President of the CITN, Samuel Agbeluyi, spoke at the 32nd Annual General
Meeting of the institute in Lagos, where he revealed their activities in the
last one year.
Analysing the domestic economy, Agbeluyi noted that Nigeria was navigating
through a blend of policy reforms introduced by the new administration in
2023.
He said reforms like the fuel subsidy removal and exchange rate
harmonisation "had a significant impact on Nigeria's economic trajectory for
the year."
He said, "The Nigerian naira depreciated 51.6 per cent against the dollar
which resulted in volatile exchange rates affecting the cost of imports,
disrupting trade balances and contributing to economic uncertainty and
heightened inflation which closed at 28.9 per cent in 2023, with food,
energy and transportation costs being the most impacted.
"Despite the array of macroeconomic challenges, there are promising
indications that Nigeria's macroeconomic situation is poised for
improvement. Economic growth strengthened in the fourth quarter of 2023,
with GDP growth reaching 2.8 per cent. This, however, falls slightly short
of population growth dynamics. Fiscal sustainability concerns remain
slightly elevated given debt servicing costs (89 per cent) of the budgeted
fiscal deficit is to be financed by new borrowings.
"Improved oil production and an expected better harvest in the second half
of the year are positive for 2024 GDP growth, which is projected to reach
3.2 per cent, although high inflation, naira weakness and policy tightening
may cause constraints to growth."
He noted that the institute grew "appreciably during this presidential
year," adding that a total of 1,057 new members were inducted in December,
2023, and another 605 members inducted in the 50th induction held in April,
2024.
Also, within the period under review, 475 associates were upgraded to
fellows while 127 members were issued practicing licence in November, 2023,
and a total of 83 in March, 2024.
- Daily Trust.
Woman sues Netflix over Baby Reindeer character
A Scottish woman who allegedly inspired the character Martha in the hit
Netflix drama Baby Reindeer is suing the streamer for defamation, negligence
and privacy violations.
Fiona Harvey, who says Martha is based on her, argued in a lawsuit filed in
a California court on Thursday that Netflix told "brutal lies" about her to
over 50 million viewers around the world.
The lawsuit seeks over $170m (£132m) in damages for Ms Harvey, who claims
the Baby Reindeer series falsely depicted her as a convicted criminal who
spent time in prison for stalking.
The show was written by and stars Scottish comedian Richard Gadd.
A statement from Netflix said: "We intend to defend this matter vigorously
and to stand by Richard Gadd's right to tell his story."
Ms Harvey also denies that she sexually assaulted the show's creator,
according to the court documents, which allege that Netflix told these
lies, and never stopped, because it was a better story than the truth, and
better stories made money.
In one scene in the series, the Martha character is depicted as sexually
assaulting the show's protagonist along a canal one night.
Speaking to BBC News on Thursday, Ms Harvey said she was certain that
Netflix would lose the case.
"I have no doubt about that. Otherwise, we wouldn't be doing it. We think we
are going to win," she said.
The first episode of the hit mini-series claims that "this is a true story".
The show's end credits say that the programme "is based on real events:
however certain characters, names, incidents, locations, and dialogue have
been fictionalized for dramatic purposes.
While giving evidence before the Culture Media and Sport Committee in
Parliament last month, Netflix executive Benjamin King said the show was
"obviously a true story of the horrific abuse that the writer and
protagonist Richard Gadd suffered at the hands of a convicted stalker".
Mr Gadd wrote the series about his alleged experience of being stalked by a
woman he met at the pub where he worked. He is not named as a defendant in
Ms Harvey's lawsuit.
Neither Mr Gadd nor Ms Harvey's real names are used in the series.
On social media, Mr Gadd has previously appealed to fans to refrain from
trying to identify Martha, the stalker character he first described in a
stand-up comedy routine.
Ms Harvey has identified herself as the woman portrayed as Martha in the
series. Netflix and Mr Gadd have not confirmed this.
Ms Harvey's lawsuit alleges that Netflix "did literally nothing" to confirm
that Mr Gadd's story was true before creating the series.
The Baby Reindeer fallout: What will happen next in 2024's biggest TV
controversy?
Baby Reindeer 'a big problem' for Netflix and Gadd - Morgan
It never investigated whether Harvey was convicted, a very serious
misrepresentation of the facts, the complaint states, referring to the
character Martha's prior conviction for stalking.
It did nothing to understand the relationship between Gadd and Harvey, if
any. It did nothing to determine whether other facts, including an assault,
the alleged stalking or the conviction was accurate.
Richard Roth, a New York-based lawyer representing Ms Harvey, told BBC News
on Thursday that he has "incontrovertible documentary evidence proving that
his client has never been convicted of a crime.
The lawsuit includes a photo of a background check and a certificate that
claims that Ms Harvey has no criminal convictions on her record.
Martha, the Baby Reindeer character, is a convicted stalker who is later
arrested after Mr Gadd's character reports her to police.
Mr Roth added that there is "no doubt" whatsoever Ms Harvey's identity was
used for Baby Reindeer's plot.
Ms Harvey, who lives in the UK, says that since the series was released in
April she has received numerous death threats.
The experience has left her "fearful of leaving her home or checking the
news", the lawsuits says, adding that she has "become extremely secluded and
isolated, in fear of the public, going days without leaving her home".
In a nearly hour-long interview with Piers Morgan last month, Ms Harvey
confirmed that she had known Mr Gadd during his time working at a pub in
London.
But she denied that she had acted like the character Martha, who sends Mr
Gadd's character 41,000 emails and leaves 350 hours of voicemail messages in
the show.
"None of that's true. I don't think I sent him anything," she said.
"No, I think there may have been a couple of emails exchanged, but that was
it. Just jokey banter emails."
The lawsuit does allege, however, that real comments that she made to Mr
Gadd - such as a tweet she sent him in 2014 - are used in the show's
dialogue.-BBC
Will the UK and US cut interest rates like Europe?
After pushing borrowing costs sharply higher in recent years to try to quell
soaring prices, countries around the world are shifting gear.
The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday announced its first interest
rate cut in five years, dropping its main lending rate from an all-time high
of 4% to 3.75%.
It came a day after Canada took a similar step and followed a flurry of
similar moves in recent months from countries including Sweden, Switzerland,
Brazil and Mexico.
Officials in the UK and US, where borrowing costs now stand at the highest
rate in years, are expected to hold off on any cuts at their meetings this
month.
But many analysts are eyeing later in the summer or early autumn for action,
maintaining it is only a matter of time.
It's a sign that the global battle against inflation sparked by the pandemic
is entering a new phase, as hope builds in some of the biggest and most
severely affected economies that price inflation is finally coming under
control.
Its an important move, said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch
Ratings. Were moving into another stage.
Just a few years ago, central banks around the world were hiking interest
rates aggressively, hoping that higher borrowing costs would weigh on the
economy and ease the pressures pushing up prices.
The moves were unusually synchronised, responding to global supply chain
issues and shocks to food and energy markets that had sent prices leaping
around the world.
That coordination has faded over the past year, and become more variable.
In Europe, the UK and US economies that had not experienced inflation
issues for decades officials have been in a holding pattern, keeping rates
at decades-highs levels.
The decision from the ECB is a declaration of confidence that trends are
moving in the right direction, said Emma Wall, head of investment research
and analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown.
"What the central bank is saying today is, although it might not be coming
down in a straight line, they are confident they can get inflation back down
to the 2% target level," she said.
In Europe, inflation now stands at 2.6%, while in the UK, inflation has
fallen to 2.3%, a long way down from a peak of over 11% in late 2022.
In the US, the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge, the personal
consumption expenditures index, has dropped to 2.7%.
Still the Fed, which was at the fore of the move to higher rates, has moved
cautiously, reflecting concerns that progress on the issue might have
stalled and that stronger-than-expected growth and major government spending
might make it trickier to resolve.
"The eurozone economy is in a different place than the US," said Yael
Selfin, chief economist at KPMG.
For now, many forecasters are predicting at least one if not more rate cuts
in the US, Europe and UK this year, with more to follow in 2025.
How fast are prices rising in the UK?
Why Canadians are angry with their biggest supermarket
Such moves would bring relief to businesses and households looking to
borrow.
But analysts say that the path down for rates is likely to be slower and
more halting than the climb up.
If central bankers lift rates too quickly, they risk unleashing a wave of
economic activity that sends prices bubbling up again.
Move too slowly, and the weight of higher borrowing costs could bring on a
more severe economic downturn.
In announcing its rate cut on Thursday, the ECB was careful to stay away
from promising future action, noted Mark Wall, chief economist at Deutsche
Bank.
"The statement arguably gave less guidance than might have been expected on
what comes next," he said. "This is not a central bank in a rush to ease
policy.
In Europe, the forces that kept rates low before the pandemic, including
slower growth and an aging population, are likely to re-emerge, ultimately
sending them back closer to zero, said Joseph Gagnon, senior fellow at the
Peterson Institute for International Economics.
But he said the US is unlikely to see a return to the ultra-low borrowing
costs that prevailed in the decade after the financial crisis, pointing in
part to big budget deficits that are likely to keep upward pressure on
rates.
"We will be a little slower than Europe to cut, but I think we're also going
to end up at a higher interest rate when this is all over," he said.-BBC
British tech tycoon cleared in US fraud trial
British tech tycoon Mike Lynch has been cleared of fraud charges he faced in
the United States over the $11bn (£8.6bn) sale of his software firm to
Hewlett-Packard in 2011.
A jury in San Francisco found him not guilty on all counts, a stunning
victory for Mr Lynch, who had been accused of inflating the value of his
firm, Autonomy, ahead of its sale.
Mr Lynch, who faced more than 20 years in prison if convicted, had denied
the charges, taking the stand to defend himself.
In his testimony, he maintained he had focused on technology, not
accounting, distancing himself from other executives, including the
company's former chief financial officer, who was already successfully
prosecuted for fraud.
"I am elated with todays verdict and grateful to the jury for their
attention to the facts over the last 10 weeks," he said in a statement.
"I am looking forward to returning to the UK and getting back to what I love
most: my family and innovating in my field."
Dr Lynch co-founded Autonomy in 1996 and led it as it grew to be one of the
UK's biggest companies, winning him comparisons to Bill Gates and Steve
Jobs.
The company, known for software that could extract useful information from
"unstructured" sources such as phone calls, emails or video, was ultimately
sold to Hewlett-Packard (HP) in 2011 in a deal that ranked, at the time, as
the largest-ever takeover of a British technology business.
Mr Lynch made £500m from the sale.
Just a year later, HP wrote down the value of Autonomy by $8.8bn.
Years of legal battles followed.
The company's chief financial officer, Sushovan Hussain, was found guilty of
fraud in 2018 and later sentenced to five years in prison.
US prosecutors brought charges against Mr Lynch in 2018, accusing him of
inflating the value of the firm using backdated agreements to mislead about
the company's sales; concealing the firm's loss-making business reselling
hardware; and intimidating or paying off people who raised concerns.
He was eventually extradited after a UK judge ruled in favour of HP in a
similar civil fraud case in 2022. HP is seeking a reported $4bn in that
case.
Mr Lynch, a former UK government adviser who sat on the boards of the BBC
and the British Library, had faced house arrest in the US, while preparing
for the trial, which began in San Francisco in March.
Prosecutors had called dozens of witnesses to the stand, including the
former head of HP Leo Apotheker, who was fired shortly after the purchase
was announced.
But the arguments fell flat. Mr Lynch's team pushed the argument that HP had
failed to properly vet the deal and mismanaged the takeover, while he
testified he was uninvolved with the transactions being described.
Judge Charles Breyer had already dismissed one count of securities fraud
during the trial for lack of evidence.
Abraham Simmons, a spokesman for the US Attorneys Office, said: "We
acknowledge and respect the verdict.
"We would like to thank the jury for its attentiveness to the evidence the
government presented in this case."
As well as Mr Lynch, another former finance executive at Autonomy, Stephen
Chamberlain, was also on trial. He was also found not guilty.
Lawyers for Mr Lynch, Christopher Morvillo and Brian Heberlig, said in a
statement that they were thrilled by the outcome, saying it reflected a
"rejection of the government's profound overreach in this case".
"This verdict closes the book on a relentless 13-year effort to pin HP's
well-documented ineptitude on Dr Lynch," they said. "Thankfully, the truth
has finally prevailed."-BBC
Plans to use Facebook and Instagram posts to train AI criticised
Plans to use peoples' public posts and images on Facebook and Instagram to
train artificial intelligence (AI) tools belonging to parent company Meta
have been attacked by digital rights groups.
The social media giant recently has been informing UK and European users of
the platforms that, under privacy policy changes taking effect on 26 June,
their information can be used to "develop and improve" its AI products.
This includes posts, images, image captions, comments and Stories that users
over the age of 18 have shared with a public audience on Facebook and
Instagram, but not private messages.
Noyb, a European campaign group that advocates for digital rights, called
its processing of years' worth of user content on the sites an "abuse of
personal data for AI".
It has filed complaints with 11 data protection authorities across Europe,
urging them to take immediate action on halt the company's plans.
Meta said it was confident its approach complied with relevant privacy laws
and was consistent with how other big tech firms used data to develop AI
experiences across Europe.
In a blogpost published on 22 May, it said European user information would
support a wider rollout of its generative AI experiences, in part by
providing more relevant training data.
"These features and experiences need to be trained on information that
reflects the diverse cultures and languages of the European communities," it
said.
Tech firms have been rushing to find fresh, multiformat data to build and
improve models that can power chatbots, image generators and other buzzy AI
products.
Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg said on an earnings call in February
the firm's "unique data" would be key to its AI "playbook" going forward.
There are hundreds of billions of publicly shared images and tens of
billions of public videos," he told investors, also noting the firm's access
to an abundance of public text posts in comments.
The company's chief product officer, Chris Cox, said in May the firm already
uses public Facebook and Instagram user data for its generative AI products
available elsewhere in the world.
What is AI, how does it work and what can it be used for?
'Highly awkward'
The way in which Meta has informed people about the change in the use of
their data has also been criticised.
Facebook and Instagram users in the UK and Europe recently received a
notification or email about how their information will be used for AI from
26 June.
This says the firm is relying on legitimate interests as its legal basis for
processing their data - meaning people essentially have to opt-out by
exercising their "right to object" if they do not want it to be used for AI.
Those wanting to do so can click the hyper-linked "right to object" text
when opening the notification, which takes them to a form requiring they say
how the processing would impact them.
The process has been criticised by Noyb, as well as people online who say
they have tried to opt-out.
In a series of posts about it on X, one user described it as "highly
awkward".
Another voiced concern that having to fill in a form and explain the
processing's impact on them might "dissuade" those who want to object from
doing so.
"Shifting the responsibility to the user is completely absurd," said Noyb
co-founder Max Schrems.
Mr Schrems is an Austrian activist and lawyer who has previously challenged
Facebook's privacy practices.
He said Meta should have to ask users to consent and opt-in, "not to provide
a hidden and misleading opt-out form".
"If Meta wants to use your data, they have to ask for your permission.
Instead, they make users beg to be excluded," he added.
Meta says the process is legally compliant and used by rivals.
According to its privacy policy, it will uphold objections and stop using
information unless it finds it has "compelling" grounds that do not outweigh
user rights or interests.
But even if you do not have a Meta account, or successfully object, the
company says it may still use some information about you for its AI products
- such as if you appear in an image shared publicly by someone else on
Facebook or Instagram.
"Meta is basically saying that it can use any data from any source for any
purpose and make it available to anyone in the world, as long as its done
via 'AI technology'" said Mr Schrems.
The Irish Data Protection Commission - which leads on ensuring Meta's
compliance with EU data law due to its Dublin headquarters - confirmed to
the BBC it has received a complaint from Noyb and is "looking into the
matter.-BBC
Eurozone cuts interest rate for first time in 5 years
The EU has become the second major global economy to cut its lending rate
this week, saying it had made progress in tackling inflation.
The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a cut in its main interest rate
from an all-time high of 4% to 3.75%.
That follows Canada's decision on Wednesday to cut its official lending
rate.
The ECB's move comes as voters head to the polls for EU-wide elections over
the next four days, with the outcome expected to reflect people's
unhappiness over cost-of-living pressures.
Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB said the outlook for inflation had
improved "markedly", paving the way for the rate cut.
However, she warned that inflation was likely to remain above the banks 2%
target well into next year, averaging 2.5% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025.
The ECB would keep interest rate policy "sufficiently restrictive for as
long as necessary" to bring inflation down to the Bank's 2% target, she
said.
However, she added: "We are not pre-committing to a particular rate path."
Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors said the rate cut
had been widely anticipated but would nevertheless come as a relief to
consumers and businesses on the continent.
The ECB has stolen a march on the Bank of England and [US] Federal Reserve
who are both potentially still a few months away from cutting and will
breathe life into an economy that desperately needs some form of stimulus,"
she said.
Central banks have kept rates high for the past two years to bear down on
the rate at which prices are rising, with most targeting an annual inflation
rate of 2%. But higher interest rates tend to dampen economic growth.
A cut in interest rates should boost economic activity by making it cheaper
for consumers and businesses to borrow.
Meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday, the EU's rate-setting body decided to cut
rates, despite a slight uptick in inflation in May. Inflation rose to 2.6%,
from 2.4% in April in the 27-nation bloc.
The ECB's decision followed Canada's rate cut on Wednesday which brought its
headline rate down from 5% to 4.75%, after inflation there fell to 2.7%.
Sweden and Switzerland have also trimmed rates.
Ms Largarde gave a broader assessment of the eurozone's economic outlook.
She said: "Our overall confidence in the path ahead because we have to be
forward looking has been increasing."
But she also warned of potential bumps in the road ahead for the region.
The risks to economic growth are balanced in the near term, but remain
tilted to the downside over the medium term, she said, citing conflict in
Ukraine and the Middle East.
Geopolitical tensions could weigh on growth, while extreme weather events
and the climate crisis more broadly could drive up food prices, she warned.
However, Katherine Neiss, chief European economist at investment firm PGIM
said she was "reasonably confident" that the ECB would cut rates further
over the summer or autumn, resulting in eurozone rates that were at 3.5% or
lower by the end of the year.
"Growth is encouragingly recovering from the recession that the euro area
went through towards the end of last year, but it's still sluggish," she
told the BBC's Today Programme.
That factor, combined with slowing inflation and easing wage growth, would
justify another rate cut, she said.
Cost of going green sparks backlash from Europe's voters
Why European elections matter and how they work
Rates should be cut to 3.5% by end of 2025, IMF says
UK election 'complication'
UK rates have yet to start coming down, although there is some speculation
the Bank of England could trim them as early as this month.
UK inflation has fallen to 2.3%, a long way down from its peak of over 11%
in late 2022.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund suggested the Bank of England
should cut rates from their current 5.25% to 3.5% by the end of the year.
However, George Godber from Polar Capital said the upcoming election in the
UK would "complicate" the Bank of England's next decision on 20 June.
The Bank is politically independent, but the Conservative government had
made falling interest rates part of their promise to voters, which could
influence "mindsets", Mr Godber said.
"If they cut it'll be political, if they dont cut it'll be political," he
said.
The US Federal Reserve is also expected to cut rates in the coming months,
although the latest US inflation figure is higher, at 3.4%.
The Fed was likely to make its first move on rates ahead of the immediate
run-up to voting in November, Mr Godber said.-BBC
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INVESTORS DIARY 2024
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Companies under Cautionary
CBZH
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