Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 March 2024

Tue Mar 12 08:38:14 CAT 2024

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Bulls n Bears Daily Market Commentary : 11 March 2024

 <mailto:sales at dulys.co.zw?subject=Request%20Quote> 
ZSE commentary

ZSE closed in the black in week opener...

The ZSE market buttressed prior session gains as the primary All Share Index rose 2.73% to 520,465.26pts in the week opener while, the Blue-Chip Index firmed up 2.56% to 230,117.56pts. The Agriculture Index lost 3.03% to 1,246.75pts while, the Mid Cap Index gained 2.61% to 2,170,529.69pts. Turnall headlined the top performers of the day on a 55.30% jump to $65.0000 followed by CAFCA that added 15.00% to $11,638.0000. Logistics group Unifreight surged 14.82% to close at $488.0000 while, hotelier Meikles shot up 14.39% to $3,500.2843. Zimre Holdings capped the winners of the day on a 10.58% hop to end the day pegged at $293.1429. Hippo Valley led the laggards of the day on a 14.99% drop to $3,973.9804 while, Edgars retreated 11.17% to settle at $350.0000. ART eased 3.23% to $210.0000 as Nampak shed 1.71% to $460.8046. Fintech group Ecocash Holdings completed the top five  fallers list of the day on a 0.01% slid to end the day pegged at $587.9012. The market closed on a positive breadth of nine as fifteen counters recorded gains against six that faltered in the session.

Activity aggregates enhanced in the session as volume traded soared 174.88% to 5,03m shares while, value traded grew 479.45% to $16.1bn. The top volume drivers of the day were Econet (70.65%), Delta (21.20%) and OK (4.32%). The trio of Delta, Econet and OK contributed a combined 97.77% to the total value traded. On the ETF section, Datvest inched up 0.46% to close at $19.9485 after 533,890 units exchanged hands in the session. OMTT ETF went up 14.47% to end the day pegged at $89.9976. A total of 991,668 units exchanged hands on the REIT section. Tigere REIT added 0.21% to close at $650.3378.

Global Currencies & Equity Markets

South South Africa

South African rand holds gains in absence of local data

(Reuters) - South Africa's rand firmed on Monday, holding onto gains from last week in the absence of any major domestic economic releases.

At 1522 GMT, the rand traded at 18.6750 against the dollar , about 0.3% stronger than its previous close.

The dollar index was last trading up almost 0.2% against a basket of currencies, as investors waited for U.S. inflation data on Tuesday which could influence the Federal Reserve's path of interest rates.

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"We expect the Rand to consolidate in an R18.60/18.85 trading range in the short term as it tracks international moves," said Andre Cilliers, currency strategist at TreasuryONE.

The rand was propped up to an extent by a surge in gold prices last week, which held steady on Monday.

South Africa's gold, mining and manufacturing production figures for January will be released later this week.

On the stock market, the Top-40 (.JTOPI), opens new tab index closed 0.26% lower while the broader all-share (.JALSH), opens new tab was down 0.32%.

-

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was marginally stronger, with the yield down 0.5 basis point to 10.105%.

Nigeria

Naira appreciates as official exchange rate settles at N1,617.96/$1

In the official market, the naira exhibited a marginal strengthening against the US dollar, concluding at N1,617.96/$1.

This marks a 0.58% improvement compared to the previous week’s Friday closing rate of N1,627.4/$1.

The exchange rate has remained above N1600/$1 since the 5th of March due to insatiable demand for dollars as agents keep buying and hoarding forex.   

Moreover, data from NAFEM showed that the forex transactions amounted to $96.13 million on the week’s first trading day, marking a significant drop of 64.31%, compared to the previous day’s turnover of $269.35 million.

Also, CBN data indicated that the foreign reserve stood at $34.11 billion as of 7th March 2024 as against $34.02 billion posted in the previous day.

The I&E window showed a high of N1650/$1 and a low of N1511/$1, indicating a gap of N139/$1. 

The daily turnover at the close of trading was $96.13 million, a decline of 64.31% from the previous trading day. 

Also, the naira weakened at the parallel market where forex is traded unofficially, exchanging at N1,623/$1, a fall of 0.18% from N1,620/$1 traded on Friday. 

In the same way, the naira lost 0.34% against the pound sterling, ending at N2,040/£1, compared to N2,033/£1 in the previous trading day. 

While against the euro, the naira depreciated by 0.58%, ending at N1715/€1, as opposed to N1705/€1 in the preceding session. 

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Global Global Markets

Yen rises as investors eye Japan policy move; bitcoin soars to new record

(Reuters) - The yen drifted higher against the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight session on Monday, bolstered by an upward revision to Japan's growth figures and expectations the Bank of Japan could exit negative rates at its policy meeting next week.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin soared to a fresh record high above $72,000 underpinned by a surge in inflows into new spot exchange-traded funds for the digital asset. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates have also lifted bitcoin, which was last up 5.3% at $72,033 .

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The market though remains focused on the yen and BOJ.

In afternoon trading, the dollar was at 146.94 yen , down 0.1% on the day.

A growing number of BOJ policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates at their March 18-19 meeting, sources told Reuters, amid expectations for hefty pay rises from Japan's biggest firms. Results of this year's annual "shunto" wage negotiations are due on Wednesday.

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At the same time, an upward revision to Japan's economic growth last quarter meant the country avoided a technical recession, adding to the argument the economy could weather tighter policy.

"We have gone from focusing on the April meeting for the BOJ to make a rate move to March. But I prefer a policy move in April right now," said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

"They have been slow to act all this time, so what's the hurry now all of a sudden. We had the GDP revision but there's nothing there that says Japan is about to go explosive in growth and prices that they need to come in really hard right now. I think they have little more capacity to wait."

The dollar index rose 0.2% to 102.85, not far from the nearly two-month low of 102.33 reached on Friday when monthly payrolls figures signalled a cooling U.S. labor market, keeping the Fed on track to ease policy this year. The data did show downward revisions to January's blowout number.

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"(Fed Chair Jerome) Powell has said time and time again that the Fed has been looking for softening in the labor market, and it appears Friday's release - though on the surface quite hot - might have shown the cracks necessary to move the needle earlier," said Helen Given, FX trader, at Monex USA in Washington.

Traders currently see June as most likely for the first cut, bets that could be moved by important consumer price index inflation data on Tuesday.

The euro slipped 0.1% to $1.0924 after jumping as high as $1.0980 on Friday for the first time since Jan. 12. The European Central Bank left rates at record highs last Thursday while cautiously laying the ground to lower them later this year.

Sterling dropped 1.1% against the dollar to $1.2807, after pushing to the highest since late July at $1.2890 on Friday amid bets the Bank of England will be slower to cut rates than the Fed or ECB. The British currency faces a test on Tuesday with the release of jobs and wage data.

Investors will be focused on Tuesday's consumer prices index (CPI) report, with the market forecasting headline CPI for February to rise 0.4%, from 0.3% in January, according to a Reuters poll.

Core CPI, on the other hand, is seen at 0.3%, down from 0.4% in January. The year-on-year core CPI, however, is expected to have slipped to 3.7% in February, from 3.9% in the previous month.

"When you look at CPI, you're really thinking about (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell's comments that they just need a little more evidence," said Klarity FX's Sahota. "And even if that evidence is showing that inflation is the same as it has been, then that's good enough for them to feel better conviction that they want to take rates lower."

The Australian dollar was down 0.2% at US$0.6610 after jumping last week as the U.S. dollar fell on the back of the slowdown in the labor market.

 <mailto:info at bulls.co.zw> 

Commodities Markets

Price of Gold and Silver are on the run

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well, my beloved Mizzou Tigers went the whole conference season without winning a game... That's a sad state of affairs if you ask me! I've come to the conclusion that my beloved Cardinals can't hit... Which would make this upcoming season a very long one... I hope that changes! We said goodbye to our friends, the Schuettes and Sextons on Saturday night... My lovely daughter, Dawn and her family arrive here on Thursday night, it will be a steady stream of visitors from then till the end of the month. The Who greets me this morning with their song: Behind Blue Eyes...

Well, the dollar is slip-sliding away... Slip-sliding away You know the nearer your destination...The more you're slip sliding away... (ahh Paul Simon to get us going today)... The BBDXY has lost 18 points since last Tuesday morning... The euro is climbing in the 1.09 handle, and all the currencies, including rubles and yen are looking much healthier. I have to throw out this warning though... Whenever we've been at this fork in the road in the past, with the dollar edging nearer to the cliff, the PPT steps in and blasts all the long dollar trades, with intervention, that's funded by their treasure chest of funds... So, be careful out there... 

Gold & Silver have really reacted favorably to the dollar's woes... When I left you last Thursday, Gold was trading at $2,131... And by the time Friday's close came around, Gold had moved up to $2,178... Silver too has come along nicely, as it was trading around $23.83 on Thursday morning and then closed on Friday at $24.26... 

The short positions are getting killed right now, and I couldn't be happier about that! But will the short paper traders come back and attempt to get these medals lower again with an engineered takedown, like we've seen so many times previously? I guess, we'll have to wait-n-see, eh? 

The price of Oil is range-bound these days, trading around $77-78... I still like Oil to move higher, but, don't tell everyone I said that, because then I will have jinxed the move! And Powell's little foray into the land of make believe last week, still has the bond boys all lathered up and calling their other halves to put on the their red dresses cause they are going out on the town... The 10-year's yield on Friday, had dropped to 4.08%, from 4.19% on Tuesday last week... And on 2/22, the 10-year's yield was 4.31%... So, this is getting out of hand, now... 

In the overnight market last night... The dollar appears to be in real trouble, folks, because even the overnight markets continued to sell the dollar, with the BBDXY losing another 1.38 index points to start our day/ week. Gold & Sliver are seeing some "real" profit taking, and are starting the day/ week down small amounts... no biggie, here, they are on a roll, and won't be stopped by some profit taking... from goofy people that think these metals of nothing more than a commodity that is traded like stocks... 

As I've explained many times in the past, that in the East, they get it... They look at Gold as a store of wealth, that's passed down from family to family, it's how they measure one's wealth, not by flimsy no backing currency... In the West, (like here) that frame of mind still is lacking but is catching on, but will take some time for it to really control how Gold is looked at in this country by investors... 

The price of Oil remains range trading, ($77-$78) and bonds continue to get bought by the basketful... The 10-years's yield this morning is 4.08%... 

Well, is the U.S. consumer tapped out? Or, have they ordered up a new set of credit cards and begun to spend again? That was the question I had when I saw the Consumer Credit (read debt) for January. Consumer borrowing was up 4.7% in Jan, VS just .2% in December... And... Revolving credit, like credit cards, accelerated at a 7.7% rate in January after a 2.4% gain in December. So, now you know what I am talking about above, right? I mean it had to be a case of obtaining new credit cards! Just had to be! 

And that leads me to talk about inflation... or better yet, rising costs, which just happen to be the real problem for households... with things like college costs rising 185%, Medical care rising 133%, New cars rising 25%, and all other costs rising 83%, the economy is in real danger here folks... And just because a TV now costs 98% less, it doesn't help! These rises are based on the year 2000... So, in 24 years, this is what we've got... And those prices are never going to come back down, mark my words on that!

The Federal Reserve’s “Financial Accounts of the United States" is always something to read, even it's 190 pages! It doesn't contain any Wall Street spin, or words from the spin doctors.... And in it it's explained that the U.S. Gov't had to finance $2.026 Trillion in 2023... OUCH! And it was just last week that it was announced that the U.S. was adding more than $1 Trillion in debt every 3 months! Who's going to buy / finance all that debt?

In a time when more and more countries are shying away from willy-nilly buying U.S. Gov't debt, this has got to be scary for the debt hungry congress-people... I'm just saying... They had better get their debt cutting pants on or else they will bring this country to its knees...

I'm full of seashells and balloons this morning, eh? 

The U.S. Data Cupboard contained a lot of lies, last week... just like the state of the Union address on Thursday night last week... Here's one that I caught: The current administration claims the gross domestic product is booming, but much of it comes from government spending and employment. The government share of gross domestic product in the United States today is 42%, including federal, state and local spending.  

And here's a caveat of that spending... the 42% share of GDP is equal to what it was in the Soviet Union before their collapse... I'm just saying... 

And here's more lies for you... The BLS said that 275,000 jobs were created in February... That sounds like a lot of jobs doesn't it? Kind of like too good to be true? Well, when you consider that 151,000 jobs were added by the BLS to the surveys after they received them, then 275,000 jobs is just that, too good to be true! Take out TCP, I mean, take out the 151,000 from 275,000 and you get a paltry 124,00 jobs actually created in February... 

Lies and more lies, and the more the Gov't tells us these lies, the more they begin to sound true, and that's what the Gov't is hoping will happen folks... It's up to you and me to tell it like it is, and point out the lies... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today is empty... But tomorrow we'll see the STUPID CPI, for Feb... Oh boy, may I have another? Well, I guess we'll have to suffer through another print of the STUPID CPI, and see what the markets think after the Gov't tells us what they want us to hear, not know... 

To recap... Well, since last Tuesday, when Chuck came back from vacation, the dollar has lost a lot of ground. In the BBDXY it has lost 18 index points as of last Friday's close... The euro is pushing higher again, and the rest of the currencies all look healthier. Gold & Silver are pushing the envelope with regards to gains VS the dollar, or vice versa... Depends on how you look at it... And somebody or some institution is buying bonds again... Could it be? .... Nah, couldn't be them, they said they were out of the bond buying business, and they wouldn't lie to us would they? See above for an explanation on their lies... 

For What It's Worth... This came to me from longtime reader, Bob... (Thanks!) and it's about how we're adding $1 Trillion of debt every 100 days.

Or, here's your snippet: "From 2000 through 2007, while waging two wars in the Middle East, the U.S. ANNUAL Federal deficit averaged $220 billion PER YEAR. And many fiscal conservatives thought that was outrageously out of control. Well, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, the despicable scum in Congress, and the rest of the Deep State calling the shots in this military empire of delusion and debt said, HOLD MY BEER.

Just as the wheels were starting to come off in late 2019, the convenient arrival of the Covid plandemic provided the cover for these purveyors of propaganda and panic to run $3 trillion deficits and establish a new baseline of $1 trillion per year. The house of cards, built upon a crumbling foundation of debt comes crashing down when deficits are allowed to drop below $1 trillion. Running in place gets more expensive by the day.

Now it requires $1 trillion of new debt every 100 days to achieve nothing but remaining static economically. The regime media pundits and the cabal on Wall Street tell us the economy is doing great. No recession in sight. All is well. The dumbed down and distracted ignorant masses don’t realize all the reported “economic growth” is “created” by the government, enabled by The Fed, spending billions on their wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, funneling the money into the Military Industrial Complex corporations; paying for the transportation, feeding, and housing of the illegal invading hordes; hiring more government drones to harass the citizenry, and desperately trying to prop up a corrupt tottering empire in its final death throes.

Anyone with even the slightest mathematical acumen knows increasing the national debt at a rate of $1 trillion every 100 days is a death wish. Why would those pulling the strings behind the scenes of this acceleration towards the cliff of national suicide be doing so at this point in time? It’s almost as if the November elections are a deadline for them to complete their exit strategy plan."

Chuck again... I told you last week that I'm reading the book: The Great Taking, by David Rogers Webb, and it that book he describes how causing a great collapse of the economy, will bring about the Gov't taking our land, our bank accounts, our homes, etc.  I know it's dark, and jaded, but it sure makes a lot of sense as to why these folks are running up the debt like this... I'm just saying... 

Market Prices 3/11/2024: American Style: A$.6615, kiwi .6179, C$ .7420, euro 1.0941, sterling 1.2847, Swiss $1.1412, European Style: rand 18.7134, krone 10.4436, SEK 10.2210, forint 360.82, zloty 3.9150, koruna 23.0794, RUB 90.59, yen 146.69, sing 1.3297, HKD 7.8195, INR 82.76, China 7.1856, peso 16.80, BRL 4.9638, BBDXY 1,228.01, Dollar Index 102.70, Oil $77.72, 10-year 4.08%, Silver $24.35, Platinum $926.00, Palladium $1,038.00, Copper $3.93, and Gold... $2,178.58

That's it for today... The Oscars were last night, wait! don't tell me who won, because I just don't care! I watched a PBS special Saturday night, it was Elvis's 1968 Comeback Concert... Man, he was great when he wanted to be! Back to the ballyard again today... I love Roger Dean Stadium... And I still have 7 more games this spring! YAHOO! The weather has been consistently good, and that's a plus... I received my global entry card in the mail, so now I'm good to go on my trip to Ireland this summer! Tommy Tutone takes us to the finish line today with his one hit wonder song: 867-5309 (Jenny)... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!

INVESTORS DIARY 2024

Company

Event

Venue

Date & Time

Art

AGM

virtual (escrow platform)

March 7. 2:30

2024 auction tobacco marketing season opens

13 march

Good Friday

march 29

Easter Monday

1 April

Independence Day

April 18

Workers day

1 May

Counters trading under cautionary

CBZH

GetBucks

EcoCash

Padenga

Econet

RTG

Fidelity

TSL

FMHL

ZBFH

Invest Wisely!

Bulls n Bears 

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DISCLAIMER: This report has been prepared by Bulls ‘n Bears, a division of Faith Capital (Pvt) Ltd for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any securities. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty is made or guarantee given as to its accuracy or completeness. All opinions expressed and recommendations made are subject to change without notice. Securities or financial instruments mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Securities of emerging and mid-size growth companies typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. Neither Faith Capital nor any other member of Bulls ‘n Bears nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Recipients of this report shall be solely responsible for making their own independent investigation into the business, financial condition and future prospects of any companies referred to in this report. Other  Indices quoted herein are for guideline purposes only and sourced from third parties.

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